Comments on: Perspective On A Long and Deep Real Estate Downturn http://usawatchdog.com/perspective-on-a-long-and-deep-real-estate-downturn/ Connecting the Dots to Give You A Clear Picture of What’s Really Going On Mon, 21 May 2012 02:28:49 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Vanetta Timi http://usawatchdog.com/perspective-on-a-long-and-deep-real-estate-downturn/#comment-1359 Vanetta Timi Mon, 15 Mar 2010 10:13:36 +0000 http://usawatchdog.com/?p=1361#comment-1359 I need to pay the mortgage at the end of the month but don't believe that I can make it, is it possible to aid? I need to pay the mortgage at the end of the month but don’t believe that I can make it, is it possible to aid?

]]> By: Greg http://usawatchdog.com/perspective-on-a-long-and-deep-real-estate-downturn/#comment-1203 Greg Tue, 02 Mar 2010 20:30:37 +0000 http://usawatchdog.com/?p=1361#comment-1203 Bob, I hope the information on this site will help you make informed decisions about protecting your family and assets. Thank you for your comment and support. Bob,
I hope the information on this site will help you make informed decisions about protecting your family and assets. Thank you for your comment and support.

]]> By: Bob http://usawatchdog.com/perspective-on-a-long-and-deep-real-estate-downturn/#comment-1197 Bob Tue, 02 Mar 2010 04:15:40 +0000 http://usawatchdog.com/?p=1361#comment-1197 Your site is scary , everyone's comments were really educational for me. THANKS Your site is scary , everyone’s comments were really educational for me. THANKS

]]> By: Greg http://usawatchdog.com/perspective-on-a-long-and-deep-real-estate-downturn/#comment-1196 Greg Tue, 02 Mar 2010 03:23:20 +0000 http://usawatchdog.com/?p=1361#comment-1196 Susan, Wow! Your analysis blew me away. I love your <strong>"one simple golden rule of thumb for real estate."</strong> Thank you for your thoughtful and expert comments. They were enlightening! Greg Susan,
Wow! Your analysis blew me away. I love your “one simple golden rule of thumb for real estate.” Thank you for your thoughtful and expert comments. They were enlightening!
Greg

]]> By: Greg http://usawatchdog.com/perspective-on-a-long-and-deep-real-estate-downturn/#comment-1195 Greg Tue, 02 Mar 2010 02:39:00 +0000 http://usawatchdog.com/?p=1361#comment-1195 Thrash, Good stuff man! Greg Thrash,
Good stuff man!
Greg

]]> By: Anobodysmallcityusa http://usawatchdog.com/perspective-on-a-long-and-deep-real-estate-downturn/#comment-1192 Anobodysmallcityusa Mon, 01 Mar 2010 22:44:38 +0000 http://usawatchdog.com/?p=1361#comment-1192 I am in the northeast, and commercial real estate is my business. I say, “You ain’t seen nothin yet”. Yes the easy money drove up prices with false demand that I’m sure allowed a multitude of equity pyramid schemes (buy and finance a new property with equity value of an owned property) much like the consumer level use of equity in residential. But then, add on what the “tax free exchange” did and the appraisal practices at the time. The desperate hustle that went on to quickly find and buy a new investment property inside of six months to dodge capital gains on one just sold, heated the demand even more. And the wishful thinking appraisals were based on ten-year projections of sustained net income growth instead of proven historical net income patterns that inflated the commercial prices even further. They were all out of their minds! Commercial investment portfolios and their lenders are going to topple like dominos when they “mark to market”. I offer one simple golden rule of thumb for real estate, commercial or residential = You can always refinance but you can never change your purchase price. This means you save for a down payment, buy when interest rates are high, refinance later, and sell when interest rates are low. Making emotionally based real estate decisions based on the latest hype will inevitably get you in trouble. But right now, the real estate, mortgage and general lending market is SO fiddled by the government, no one can know what the REAL value of any property is until the government gets out, lets the massive correction run its course, and we come back to some reality based supply and demand market. That day however, seems to be very, very, very far off in the future. I am in the northeast, and commercial real estate is my business. I say, “You ain’t seen nothin yet”. Yes the easy money drove up prices with false demand that I’m sure allowed a multitude of equity pyramid schemes (buy and finance a new property with equity value of an owned property) much like the consumer level use of equity in residential. But then, add on what the “tax free exchange” did and the appraisal practices at the time. The desperate hustle that went on to quickly find and buy a new investment property inside of six months to dodge capital gains on one just sold, heated the demand even more. And the wishful thinking appraisals were based on ten-year projections of sustained net income growth instead of proven historical net income patterns that inflated the commercial prices even further. They were all out of their minds! Commercial investment portfolios and their lenders are going to topple like dominos when they “mark to market”.

I offer one simple golden rule of thumb for real estate, commercial or residential = You can always refinance but you can never change your purchase price. This means you save for a down payment, buy when interest rates are high, refinance later, and sell when interest rates are low. Making emotionally based real estate decisions based on the latest hype will inevitably get you in trouble. But right now, the real estate, mortgage and general lending market is SO fiddled by the government, no one can know what the REAL value of any property is until the government gets out, lets the massive correction run its course, and we come back to some reality based supply and demand market. That day however, seems to be very, very, very far off in the future.

]]> By: Brad Thrasher http://usawatchdog.com/perspective-on-a-long-and-deep-real-estate-downturn/#comment-1190 Brad Thrasher Mon, 01 Mar 2010 19:07:23 +0000 http://usawatchdog.com/?p=1361#comment-1190 Among the things I like about Greg Hunter is his positive outlook. A couple-few other factors about real estate the learned one's keep missing are: 1. The boomers are done moving up and are either downsizing or shutting off rooms. 2. The vast majority of Gen X, Y and the millenials aren't earning even livable wages. 3. Anecdotal but after talking to more than a handful of agents I've learned that banks are taking 30 days and longer to respond to offers on listed REO's. So much for teh claue in off to purchase contracts that read, THIS OFFERS EXPIRES IN THREE (3) DAYS. 4. Two weeks ago we bought flowers for planting but didn't shop at the Home Depot around the corner. We truck pooled into L.A. and went to the Flower Mart. What a shock!!! Foot traffic from the garment district through the flower district and on to the jewelery mart was done about 80% from our last visit a couple years ago. The beer garden (seats a couple-3 hundred) where we went for lunch had two counter customers and 3 tables in use. With banks institutionally paralyzed the credit markets remain frozen. With foot traffic down 80% in one of the world's busiest shopping districts. With fewer credit worthy buyers available for an over built real estate market. No recovery in real estate before 2013? Let's hope Greg "happy talk" Hunter is right and I'm wrong. Among the things I like about Greg Hunter is his positive outlook.

A couple-few other factors about real estate the learned one’s keep missing are:

1. The boomers are done moving up and are either downsizing or shutting off rooms.

2. The vast majority of Gen X, Y and the millenials aren’t earning even livable wages.

3. Anecdotal but after talking to more than a handful of agents I’ve learned that banks are taking 30 days and longer to respond to offers on listed REO’s. So much for teh claue in off to purchase contracts that read, THIS OFFERS EXPIRES IN THREE (3) DAYS.

4. Two weeks ago we bought flowers for planting but didn’t shop at the Home Depot around the corner. We truck pooled into L.A. and went to the Flower Mart. What a shock!!! Foot traffic from the garment district through the flower district and on to the jewelery mart was done about 80% from our last visit a couple years ago. The beer garden (seats a couple-3 hundred) where we went for lunch had two counter customers and 3 tables in use.

With banks institutionally paralyzed the credit markets remain frozen. With foot traffic down 80% in one of the world’s busiest shopping districts. With fewer credit worthy buyers available for an over built real estate market.

No recovery in real estate before 2013? Let’s hope Greg “happy talk” Hunter is right and I’m wrong.

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