Who Bails Out Central Banks in Coming Chaos –James Rickards

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

(This in-depth interview (more than 1 hour) will take the place of the Weekly News Wrap-Up and the Early Sunday Release.)

Best-selling financial author James Rickards says “We are still in the aftermath of the 2008 – 2009 financial crisis.” In the up-coming book titled “Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos,” the crisis of the Great Recession may be over, but “nothing is fixed.” Rickards explains, “I understand the economy has been expanding for 10 years, and we are not in a liquidity crisis at the moment and unemployment is low. We have come a long way from that. The fundamental problems that gave rise to that have not been solved. . . . So, unlimited guarantees, unlimited money printing and unlimited currency swaps and, yeah, they truncated the crisis, but all that happened was the bad debts, the leverage and the problems were now lifted up to the central bank level. You’ve got this progression. First, it is the hedge fund. Then, it’s Wall Street. Now, it’s the central banks. Who is going to bail out the central banks? That problem has not been solved, and it’s still on the table.”

Rickards says don’t think the Federal Reserve is going to come in and ride to the rescue in what Rickards is predicting to be a “coming chaos.” Rickards contends, “Interest rates are 2.25%, but that is not what you need to get out of a recession. I am not predicting one, but if the U.S. economy went into a recession . . . history in economics says you need to cut interest rates 4% to 5% to get the U.S. out of a recession. How do you cut interest rates 4% when you are at 2.25%? You can’t because there is not enough room. You get to 0% pretty quickly, and now what do you do? You are still in a recession and you go to QE4 (money printing), but how do you do that when the Fed balance sheet is at $4 trillion. You are at a boundary. You are at a confidence limit. So, the Fed is not ready for the next recession, and they can’t get there.”

Rickards is not seeing a recession anytime soon. In fact, he is not forecasting a recession until after the 2020 Presidential Election. What does that mean for the chances of a second Trump Presidency? Rickards says, “If you put recession odds at 35%, and that is probably high, then the inverse of 65% is his probability of winning. . . . Every month that goes by, the odds of a recession by next summer go down. So, the odds of Trump winning go up. . . . I don’t want to debate the economics of the Fed and what they are doing, but the Fed is doing what it needs to do to avoid a recession, and that improves Trump’s odds. Right now, I have Trump as the winner.”

After the 2020 Presidential Election, Rickards is much less optimistic and so are the wealthy elite.  Rickards says, “The rich are building bunkers. Entrepreneurs are actually buying abandoned missile siloes with armed guards and steel doors. . . . Here’s another interesting thing, hedge fund billionaires may trade stocks, bonds and currencies all day long, but when you ask them where do you have your own money, every one of them that I have spoken to have gold, physical gold. . . . They all have gold. They don’t trade it, but they have it.”

Rickards covers a lot of ground in this in-depth interview that is more than one hour in length. Rickards talks about the new gold (and silver) bull market, what everybody, especially the small investors, needs to buy now, and talks about a gold price that is exponentially higher than today’s price. Rickards discusses the world’s massive debt, probability of big defaults and huge inflation all coming in the “Aftermath” of the coming crisis. Rickards also tells people what they can do to protect themselves.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with James Rickards, multiple best-selling author of a new book titled “Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos.”

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After the Interview: 

To buy a copy of “Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos” click here.  The book will be in bookstores on July 23.

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  1. Anthony Australia

    Bang! He is in Australia soon , can’t wait.

    Ride the wave Greg, taking you away form denial and to an honest reality.

    Thank you.

    • Rob

      Here is the honest reality we are headed for through the next decade in which the tribulation will occur concurrently:


      Prepare accordingly:


      • Galaxy 500

        BIS doesn’t have the power to do what he saying.
        But what I find most disturbing is you predicting the time of Jesus’ return. How do you have the time frame figured? I ask because EVEN THE SON OF GOD doesn’t know and yet you do.
        Wow, I have how you know and Jesus doesn’t ?

        • Rob

          Good morning Galaxy!

          Jesus told us to watch for we know not the day or hour:

          Matthew 25:13 Watch therefore, for ye know not the day nor the hour.

          But we were clearly warned that the day of the Lord which is a year long and AFTER the tribulation would not overtake those watching:

          1 Thessalonians 5:1-4 But concerning the times and the seasons, brethren, ye have no need that aught be written unto you. (2) For yourselves know perfectly that the day of the Lord so cometh as a thief in the night. (3) When they are saying, Peace and safety, then sudden destruction cometh upon them, as travail upon a woman with child; and they shall in no wise escape. (4) But ye, brethren, are not in darkness, that that day should overtake you as a thief:

          It was not until AFTER Jesus ascended that our Father revealed to Him the Revelation that He then gave to us that help us understand the mystery:

          Revelation 1:1-3 The Revelation of Jesus Christ, which God gave him to show unto his servants, even the things which must shortly come to pass: and he sent and signified it by his angel unto his servant John; (2) who bare witness of the word of God, and of the testimony of Jesus Christ, even of all things that he saw. (3) Blessed is he that readeth, and they that hear the words of the prophecy, and keep the things that are written therein: for the time is at hand.

          While I am not trying to declare a “day or hour” it is very apparent that the “times and seasons” of our Saviors return within the next decade are are easily discernible :o)

          Please take some time to peruse my site as I think you will be blessed brother:


          Love in CHRIST! Rob

    • AL HALL

      Greg: He is full of bull-crap!! specially when you asked about the missing $21T. Bad accounting – BS!!! I know what W told me!

      • Pablo

        Great work Greg for bringing up the Missing Trillions even though he totally had a BS answer..

        How nice, he WOULD be concerned if they were mis-spending 21 Trillion, but that’s the CATCH!! There is ZERO Congressional oversight, so no way to know if there are or not… Even “secret” weapons should be held accountable to select Congressional committees, they are supposed to be vetted for security secrets are they not?

        PS: Him being invited to an invitation only Elite event says all there is to know about this guy, a total mouth piece

        • Greg Hunter

          Rickards did get some really good info out. When asking about the $21 trillion he said “I know about it.” This means the elite know about it too and are talking about it. He also asked the question “Who bails out the central banks?” This is another question the elite are thin king about and I think they have an answer. Gold and silver bailout central banks in a reset or revaluation. This was a big “read between the lines” reveal and I have to thank Rickards for this.

          • Paul in OZ

            All of the missing 21 trillion is bad accounting, this site https://home.solari.com/dod-and-hud-missing-money-supporting-documentation/ clearly documents that fact.

            What is much harder to know is whether any or all of bad accounting contributes to more debt or if the debt is incorporated into the countries financial situation. When there is inadequate supporting documentation, proper accounting would typically result in a write-off which affects the bottom line. FASAB 56 of course makes everything impossible to ever discover anything again. The period of time was 1998-2016 and could possibly be above and beyond but IMO could also be represented in the debt of the country. Bad documentation makes it impossible to know not just one half of the dr/cr equation but both. NO matter, the 21 trillion of bad accounting is completely unacceptable and a properly running organization would add substantial internal controls to prevent further leakage of the nations resources.

          • pablo

            I know you have to walk a fine line otherwise if you beat up a guest too much they won’t ever want to come back… His reaction (at first trying to dismiss it as mere bad accounting then saying maybe its for top secret weapons) pretty much said it all. He’s an insider probably had to sign a million non disclosure agreements and the Pentagon and CIA screens every aspect of what gets written in his books. The sales of which are undoubtly the pay off for being their mouth piece.

          • SamAdamsGhost

            “ just very sloppy accounting “

            I gotta chuckle out of that one. Mr Rickards apparently still actively communicates with those in the defense & intel establishments . That said, I thought it was an excellent interview. Very informative

            • Greg Hunter

              Thank you “Sam”!! Rickards did give up one very big piece of information if you listen closely. When I was asking about the $21 trillion in “missing” money he said very low “Yeah, I know about it.” This means all his rich clients “know about it” and might be the reason they are buying physical gold and building bunkers. Rest assure, no only do the elites “know about it” but they believe it is real. We should too!! Thank you for your comment.

      • nocte_volens

        Pay attention to how Jim answered that question. Usually he is smooth and articulate. This is the first time I have ever seen him flustered…he stumbled over his speech and his tone and body language indicates that he was giving a BS answer. I like Jim but his answer was extremely disappointing.

  2. JC

    Thanks Greg, this is the first time I’ve listened to Mr. Rickards, he explains himself clearly and concisely, and I particularly appreciated his emphasis about the importance of diversification.

    • paul ...

      JC … Richards knows the fundamental problems that have given rise to the economic nightmare we are in … have not yet been solved … and therefore he recommends buying precious metals for wealth protection … the US government needs to stop impoverishing the American people with it’s continual non-stop wars and the building of more and more tanks, planes, ships, nuclear weapons and stockpiling them at more and more military bases around the world … idiotically thinking that spending all this money on the military will “increase the national GDP” … when in fact all the spending on continual non-stop wars “is impoverishing the people” by undermining the saved wealth of Americans “through inflation of the money supply” … and putting “chains” on the CPI is a fools game trying to hide the general price increases that printing money out of thin air creates … so the US government “in an effort to boost the US economy” by spending money we don’t have on continual wars … is in fact “contracting the US economy” by destroying the American peoples purchasing power with monetary debasement … how long do these idiots in the US government think foreigners will continue to buy our “continual war debts” and cover our budget deficits?? … foreigners are buying “less” Treasuries (as our non-stop war debts continue to rise) … and lower demand for Treasuries “weakens the US dollar in addition” to all the dollars printed up to supposedly strengthen the US economy … and because the US dollar is the world’s Reserve Currency “it’s decline results in interest rates rising everywhere in the world” … thus slowing economic growth “worldwide” … forcing world central banks to artificially lower rates to zero (or negative) to try and keep their economies from slowing … so the idiotic US politicians expanding of the US money supply to fight continual non-stop wars “was a vain attempt to boost economic growth” … when simply stopping all the wars and closing our military bases around the world “would have done more to boost our economy” by keeping our budget in balance and lowering the need to print money out of thin air (that creates the inflation that makes things more expensive to buy … especially for people being artificially chained by a fake CPI) … so now we have Trump … who is boxed in a corner … he doesn’t want war “but needs war” to keep the factories producing weapons and keeping people employed (especially before an election) … he wants a strong dollar “but needs to lower its value” so our manufactures can sell their products overseas … so it looks like more war and more depreciating of the US dollar is in our future … thus the need to buy gold and silver!!

      • paul ...

        Look at the three year chart of gold (in every fiat currency in the world) and gold is making higher highs … “all” fiat currencies (every one of them) are being depreciated by their governments relative to gold … and yet the Central Banksters say “there is no inflation” … and they “need to do more QE” because there is a shortage of money in the world!! … the only person I can think of who believes these banksters is Stan!! … https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-prices

        • paul ...

          Most Americans don’t really care about gold or the banks … they have been brainwashed to believe that gold is just a useless relic and that banks are simply places to cash their retirement and work checks so they can pay their bills … whether gold is cheap or Deutsche Bank(DB) lives or dies is of little concern to most Americans … however … DB is now buckling (under a $49 trillion derivatives debt) … another “Lehman Brothers moment” is very near … the failure of Deutsche Bank will bring a global crisis for the entire financial system … as Deutsche Bank is interconnected financially to JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America as well as all the big banks in Europe … so it is time for the common people to seriously think about buying some gold or silver insurance protection … because the only solution the banksters have to try and save DB as a shell corporation … is to print even more fiat money (and lower interest rates) which will further weaken all the fiat dollars making gold and silver soar!

  3. Shane Walsh

    Paul Joseph Watson Before Selling Out


  4. David Jewett

    Interesting interview. From my perspective, Mr. Rickards has always been an establishment guy; which is to say he always puts forth the bankster/Fed position as his preferred solution. I use his perspective on the missing $21 trillion as an example, where he shrugs it off as not really missing; but also note his mention of SDRs as a means of extracting the U.S. from our forthcoming financial debacle. In my view, the IMF is a terrible way to deal with our debt.

    Nothing he said in here is new, so you’ll have to buy his book to see what solutions he recommends.

    Thanks for the interview, Greg, (I understand if you choose not to post this, since I’m rather critical of Mr. Rickards’ positions)

    • Hockey Puck

      Thanks, David, for your honesty and courage. I think you are spot on. If Rickards is rubbing shoulders with people like Tim Geithner, he would not have that preferred status if he wasn’t their spokesperson… a way for the Elite to float trial balloons. In that respect, his point of view is useful since it gives us a good idea of what the Deep State is thinking.

      Clearly their plan is to move the world towards one central bank for the whole planet. That’s a prerequisite for one-world government. Rickard’s thesis “Who will rescue the central banks?” is a clever ploy to get us all thinking this is inevitable. The big question is whether China, Russia, Iran and others will go along with this scheme to rob the whole planet of freedom. I’m sure these countries are tired of Deep State hegemony via the Fed/USD trade sanctions, something that is only effective with the USD being the global reserve currency. Are they going to want to substitute Deep State hegemony via the USD for Deep State hegemony via the IMF? I don’t know, but I sort of doubt it. The best I can see is that we’re in a bit of a stalemate at this point, and thank God for that, otherwise none of us would have any freedom.

      • SamAdamsGhost

        The world is run by counterfeiters. They counterfeit ‘legally’, because they also write the laws.
        At one point Mr Rickards asked why the Fed thinks creating inflation is desirable. That should be obvious. The counterfeiters/bankers are running a Ponzi scam. All such scams must constantly grow or they collapse relatively quickly. Like any pyramid scheme. – The SDRs are just another level to the Ponzi. Pay off old ‘debt’ denominated in counterfeit notes, with the next tier of counterfeit notes.
        Hmmmm . . . as long as people keep falling for it, the counterfeiters/bankers can do this Forever. Who knows , eventually they may issue Galactic ‘Super Special ‘ Drawing Rights (GSSDRs).

    • Jack

      Agreed, You cannot down play $ 21 trillion as some accountancy error. It seems our elites want to extend the time before it collapses since they do not have their new digital currency in place. Why would they declare Bitcoin a new legal currency while it is too volatile and next to useless in doing transactions ? No one is going to use any new currency that can fall 10 % in a day when transacting,especially large ones. They want a useless one like Bitcoin so their new fiat one will be readily accepted. Also ,what is to stop them from changing the rules once their new one is established ? Rob Kirby thinks making Bitcoin a legal currency will affect metal prices in the short term. Can they build enough confidence in their new currency before TSHTF ?

    • Gerry

      Agree David… Mr. Rickards tried to spin the 21 trillion. Sloppy accounting? I think not. Another great guest and interview Greg. Thanks for taking us to school!

    • JJ

      I agree I was listening intently right up until he said accounting error what a pack of lies. There is no one that can be as educated as this man and put out a line like that without knowing it’s a lie. BS

  5. Uncommon Sense

    I have read most of Jim rickards books. He is now saying there is little chance of a ressession until after the 2020 election. What happened to his avalanche theory and how you can’t predict which snowflake will cause the avalanche and when?

    • Jerry

      Uncommon Sense,
      I agree with you. There is no timetable using the snowflake analogy. But maybe book sales make a difference.

    • Freebrezer

      Un S- I have determined none of the experts know when the SHTF. Though there is going to be some event that will start the Avalanche! I only wish I knew who, where , and when? I have all so read a couple of his books and his advice is good … have some gold, and silver; be out of debt as much as possible; have some cash; and be able to hunker down for a few months.

    • john

      no recession when you can still lower rates – avalanche when you raise rates

    • enlightened chimp

      Avalanche , you say https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLrnkK2YEcE&list=RDqLr

    • JJ

      The effective reason Rickards says he is a statistician is because it lends him license to answer a question as a probability percentage, instead of straightforwardly (yes, no sir).

      So many of these experts are spiritually effete. They purport to knowing EVERYTHING, so why can they not speak definitively. Or worse, they are like atheist Clif High who purports to knowing everything and also opines on anything and everything. At least Rickards exhibits some custody of his ego, enormous though it be.

      Greg could take the advice of Jesus and tap his audience to be guests (Luke 14:21-24). There are probably a lot of outstanding men and women who are up to the task, but get overlooked because they are meek and blessed.

  6. Ronnie

    Another winner. Go the last one already paid for the new one on Apple Books.

  7. Genocidal Politician

    People that probably need to read authors such as JR never would or will
    JR providing lots of direction right now
    Amongst a number of similiar commentators and analysts

  8. Montana Guy

    Give the devil his due, globalists are clever and extremely patient. I doubt those back in 1913 had little regret in not living to see their glorious plan play out. The Fed’s job is coming to an end. Mission accomplished. Wealth first. Power second.

    The global elite have not only built bunkers, but also their next offices are in place. The question at this point is, ‘Have they done enough damage or do they need one more ‘event’?’ Trump is going nowhere until he completes the job they selected him for.

    • paul ...

      MG … You say “Trump is going nowhere” … but Trump “can go somewhere very beneficial” not only for his election chances but for our American economy “if he uses his God given brains” … all Trump simply has to do is sign an Executive Order that gives a little “interest rate forgiveness” to the American people on the “usurious interest charges” imposed upon their credit card debts by the banksters … by simply signing an EO that reduces all credit card interest rates to what the banksters pay for money (2%) … Trump can with one stroke “even the playing field a little bit” for the bankster abused American people … Americans will thus “be able to get out of debt quicker” … and hence be able to once again “spend money” (boosting the economy) … of course the bankster loan sharks in Washington would have a brain embolism if Trump even considered such an idea to help the abused American people (instead of the banking special interests) … so Trump may have to add into his EO that the banksters “lost usurious interest rate charges” will be made up by the US Government printing the money out of thin air … and simply hand it to the banksters … the same way the US Government prints money out of thin air and hands it to the Military/Industrial Complex (to produce all the tanks, planes, ships and missiles of war needed to keep the continuous non-stop wars going) … “to boost the American economy”!!

      • Galaxy 500

        You understand that was crash the system don’t you? Spoken like a true socialist. Please explain how your version of communism is better than anyone else’s. If you don’t like the rates, don’t borrow. The interest rate a person pays is based on risk, the rate of inflation and the time value of money in lower risk invests. Credit cards have fraud, bankruptcy and immense overhead.
        And Trump doesn’t have the power to do what you are saying you to start with. He isn’t King

        • Uncommon Sense

          You may be a person of (your own) facts, but investigations start with grounds for suspicion and then try to prove the case by ascertaining the facts. You have the cart before the horse.

          • Galaxy 500

            Let’s start with Facts… What’s your knowledge base? I know about credit card companies. I worked for one of the best run c/c in the world for 12 years. I know what it cost to keep one running. I know about the defaults and collections. I know about the costs of acquisition and serving.
            The Fed Reserves cost to produce bonds is negligible. If you have a 2% rate on credit cards, it doesn’t cover the losses from Fraud by itself much less the cost of operations.
            I understand where Paul is coming from. The little guy is being raped by the bank. As for as fact , which you claim I am one that makes up his own, you seem to forget how Trumps executive orders has faired so far.
            Trump doesn’t set interest. There is no Presidential power to set interest rates. Plus in my own little fact word, we call it reality, Interest rates are set by the lenders, none of which are government entities. Credit card interest rates are some of the few rates that resemble a true market.
            Back in reality, we understand that Banks are faith based entities as is our fiat currency.
            Play along for a second and let’s pretend that the Never Trumper Montana believe we are all under the thumb of the Globalist. Would have he deregulated, cut taxes and worst of all proclaimed America First and meant it?
            Or better yet, Trump Likes Paul’s plan and make a regal proclamation that after Aug 31st, any new charges on any US based credit card will be 2% (@ what? 2% a month, a year? Let’s go year). Any thing before that day is a t current rates and if you pay late, you get the default rate.
            You know what happens at midnight on August 31? Your card doesn’t work. No one in business is going to loan you money where doing so bankrupts them. It doesn’t even cover the costs of swiping the card much less fraud at double that.
            Also, most people have no idea the rate they are being charged because they are Dems and they are F’ing stupid. All they care about is instant gratification.
            So having destroyed credit cards, basically stopped credit cards, that will send a ripple through the country. Companies will start calling every load they can so they won’t be next on the list. Credit will be impaired world wide. Banks image will be damaged and some may fail due to the fallout.
            But the thing Paul misses most is Congress has the purse strings. How is he going to bail out the banks decimated by this hypothetical if Trump wrote such an EO.
            Paul says it is the same way they give money to the Military Industrial complex except it isn’t. Bill come out of Congress and get voted on.
            Color me a person who lives in the real world and even understands how some of it works.

            • Uncommon Sense

              Thanks for the lecture but my comment was referring to the Epstein situation and not credit cards.

      • Montana Guy

        Paul, so theft is ‘Godly’? Trump’s companies have filed for bankruptcy seven times, taking billions of dollars out of people’s pockets in the process. Exactly who do you think built Trump Taj Mahal and his others failures? Surely you know Trump was bailed out by the Rothschild banking family. This is a perfect example of the “bankster abused American people” you refer to. It is us the little people.

        • paul ...

          G500 and MG … No, theft is not Godly … that is why Jesus overturned the tables of the usurious banksters in his day!!

        • Galaxy 500

          Bankruptcy is legal and patterned after the Jewish Jubilee year. Are you saying a legally executed bankruptcy is theft? Not according to US law. Many real estate organizations have gone broke. And what is crap about Trump being on the globalist’s side? Are you daft? The globalist weaponized the entire government against him.
          What exactly is your point? Orange man bad

          • uncommon sense

            Galaxy, what you are saying is correct and cannot be faulted from a legal perspective.

            However, it is morally dubious to declare bankruptcy in order to jettison a failing part of your business empire, knowing that this will likely destroy many peoples’ lives. The fact is that Trump has a history of serial bankruptcies.
            This is a difficult subject as bankruptcy is a necessary part of capitalism. However, it raises the issue of moral hazard and whether the ease with which someone can declare bankruptcy encourages businesspeople to take unwarranted risks knowing that they will be able to get a free pass on their mistakes. Then again if people lend money without due diligence perhaps they should get their hands burnt.

            The situation is similar to the massive gambling risks financial institutions took prior to the 2008 financial crisis knowing that if they paid off they would keep their profits and if they failed they would be bailed out.

            Having said that I believe that it is necessary that nations default on their debt obligations as this is a different situation. Is a sovereign state truly a sovereign state if it cannot create its own money debt free?

          • FC

            Bankruptcy maybe legal but it doesn’t make it morally correct. Montana Guy is only pointing out the FACT that the Rothschild’s have assisted Trump almost unscathed in troubled times and now it’s pay back time with sleeping beauty Wilbur Ross as Commerce Secretary along with the rest of his Cabinet. Orange Man is not bad, only led.

      • Galaxy 500

        I understand what you are saying. Bush and the Øbamachrist saw the banks got well by raping the little guys and it is still going on. But it ain’t the credit cards. It’s the 401-Ks and our other portfolios. They are sodomizing ever single American daily.
        I look at other things that Trump CAN do legally. Bringing back industry that Bush and CLinton destroyed with NAFTA. THIS WAS AIMED AT DESTROYING MANUFACTURING IN AMERICA AND DESTABILIZING MIDDLE CLASS AMERICA.
        IT WAS BRILLIANT in its evil simplicity.
        Want to help the little guy, look at the hinkey stuff done and write Trump

        • paul ...

          G500 … Usury and War must be ended … to do so … we must go after it “where it lives” (in the minds of banksters and neocons) … and all their evil thoughts “must be purged on a daily basis” by watchdogs for Jesus!!

        • Frederick

          That’s why I voted for Perot Turns out he wasn’t the clown the media made him out to be

          • paul ...

            Bankruptcy is like a debt jubilee … giving the banksters low borrowing costs is like a debt jubilee … giving the Military/Industrial Complex huge contract is like a debt jubilee … giving Corporations low tax rates to bring their money back to America is like a debt jubilee … giving bailout money to the big banks and the Fed buying their toxic debt is like a debt jubilee … but when I propose a debt jubilee “for the average Joe” by giving him a lower interest rate on his credit cards … I’m called a “commie” ????

    • Galaxy 500

      Trump was selected? Yeah righttt….

    • Galaxy 500

      You wrote, “Trump is going nowhere until he completes the job they selected him for.“
      What kind of mind buys into this? And does your job require regular mandatory drug tests? I can answer that ,,,, obviously not.
      You don’t have to like Trump but could you be on the side of America, Please?

      • Uncommon Sense

        Nobody knows which side Trump is on. Do you have privileged access to the inner recesses of the Whitehouse? You seem very sure about a situation you couldn’t possibly know about.

      • Frederick

        Is Trump on the side of America? That’s yet to be seen ie Iran, border wall, etc I voted for him and have my doubts By the way why are the Clintoons still running free

  9. David

    I agree completely regarding individuals and their disaster plans. When you peel them back, you often find a “single-point-of-failure”. Any action plan never incorporated into daily routine is not a realistic plan. Neither is faith in government to save you. And “winging it” won’t get you very far!

    Keep it simple and live it every day. Inventory every ESSENTIAL human need in 15 minute increments over a one or two week period. Keep in mind Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. That will give you a starting point.

    • Hockey Puck

      In terms of disaster plans, a single point of failure could be not understanding 1) a reasonable value for gold today and 2) how any reset is likely to play out. Very few gold bugs are willing to discuss a “realistic” value for gold today, as they all see it as a highly speculative question. How ridiculous is that? If a friend came to you and said, “I have a great business idea. Give me $10,000 of your hard earned money today and maybe, someday, if all goes well and the fat lady sings, I will give you a great profit in the future”, would you do that deal? Of course not! And yet gold bugs keep using the same logic. I don’t get it.

      Here’s where Rickards comes up with his $10,000 value for gold today. On the surface it seems like a reasonable argument. He takes global M1 and divides it by official gold reserves.

      What I would like is for people to poke holes in his argument, if you can. I’d like to see the pros and cons. The math starts @ 6:21. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4xpZm7JlqU

      Bill Holter suggests a value around $100,000 per ounce based on dividing US DEBT of $23 trillion by 8.133 metric ounces held at Fort Knox. ($80,172 to be exact). Of the two approaches to value, what do you think is the most realistic? What can we bet on.

      Any input on this question would be very valuable. Thanks.

      • Hockey Puck

        Hockey Puck 07/19/2019 •Your comment is awaiting moderation.
        I wanted to understand Bill Holter’s argument for gold at $50,000 or greater. Here it is from 2015. Listen from 5:30-7:40: https://usawatchdog.com/china-could-reprice-gold-to-100000-per-ounce-bill-holter/

        Holter makes a very interesting case, one that is diametrically opposed to Rickards point of view. So which one is the more real? Rickards point of view is that the central banks are firmly in control. Ya? Really? The global economy will just recapitalize with each country’s stated reserves without even a bona fide audit? Seems like Rickards is smoking Hopium. Holter’s p0int of view is that nations are independent and nations will have collateralize their own currency independent of whatever monetary system is adopted internationally. Is that reality? Will China and Russia use their gold reserves to destroy America economically?

        These are big issues, folks, and deserve our serious consideration. I’m not smart enough to figure this out. Your insights would help a lot.

        • William Stanley

          It seems to me that you’ve already figured it out.
          Anyway, here are a few thoughts:
          1. The term “money” is most useful when it is operationally defined. It is that which serves particularly well as: (a) a medium of exchange, (b) a store of value, and (c) a unit of account.” Attributes such as portability, and ease of identification and authentication are important determinants of moneyness.
          2. IMO, it’s useful to think in terms of “MONEYNESS,” and not to reify it as some particular, unique thing. In other words, money is simply that which has a high degree of moneyness.
          3. Ounces of gold and silver have a high degree of moneyness. So does fiat . . . if you don’t create too much of it or otherwise undermine “trust” in it. (Isn’t the root meaning of the word “credit” something like “trust”?). For very large transactions, treasury bonds and bills, and certain other recognized, liquid securities can and do have a high degree of moneyness — for a period of time and when trust is high.
          4. Different monies can coexist if they can be traded freely so that their exchange values can be determined by “the market.” Thus, Gresham’s Law (that bad money drives good money out of circulation) strictly applies only when the exchange values of things with high degrees of moneyness are fixed by law. It follows that gold-backed Chinese yuan can circulate alongside fiat dollars . . . if markets are allowed to determine their relative values. However, as more fiat dollars are created or expected to be created, the lower its exchange value will become and the less useful it will become as a store of value . . . that is, until its moneyness is completely destroyed.
          5. IMO, both Rickards and Holter are partly right and partly wrong in their fundamental assumptions. Moreover, the value of moneyness, itself, changes with the overall degree of trust, transparentness, justice, and overall economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
          6. Gold and silver are so high in moneyness that their values relative to the values of other goods, services, and real estate (for example), could become much higher than today. And that value is NOT constrained by the aggregate amount of fiat in the world generally, or in particular countries. IMO, the aggregate value of gold and silver could be as high as (or even higher than) the present aggregate value of all fiat money AND all fiat-denominated financial securities . . . at least for a period of time.
          7. All that said, I’m thinking a tenfold increase in the purchasing power of gold and silver is entirely reasonable.
          8. But, then again, if commerce and trade get too dinged up, THAT might not buy us very much. Hence, the need for prepping.

          • Hockey Puck

            Thanks for taking the time, William. I always value your detailed comments.

            You raise some very interesting issues. I’ll try to keep it short.
            1) With a potential collapse of the global monetary system, you intimate that a variety of solutions will be put forth. That’s quite interesting. The IMF will come up with its solution. Perhaps countries like Russia, China and others will propose alternative solutions. This could be a period of intense chaos where financial markets try to determine which “money system” is the most transparent and price itself accordingly. Does that make sense?
            2) A collapse of the global monetary system means a total loss of confidence. This is a whole order of magnitude greater than what transpired in 2008-2009. National economies will be in disarray, not to speak of the global economy. What then will be the first order of business: (A) stabilizing the domestic front or (B) ensuring the longevity of the global economy (aka globalization). Is that a fair question? With the MAGA movement, trade wars, Brexit, the yellow vest movement, etc., I suspect that Scenario (A) will be the #1 issue on the table. Every country will be racing to stabilize their own domestic economy, hence their own currency.
            3) That means we have competing gold backed currencies. Hmmm! My question is this: What mechanism exists today to audit each country’s gold reserves? Is it an IMF mechanism? Are we back to trusting the banksters again and their phony opinions? Or will countries like China, Russia, Germany and others demand that a genuine audit be conducted by an international panel of auditors that can’t be bribed?
            4) The weakness in Rickard’s argument is threefold (A) he uses M1 (Really? The Debt/GDP ratio doesn’t matter?), (B) he uses stated gold reserves (Oh ya? USA still has 8.133 metric tons? Prove it!), and (C) he assumes the whole planet will want to continue with business as usual (i.e. USD/IMF hegemony. Really?). Something seems off with that picture. He may be right! I’m not so sure.
            5) We know that the BRICS have been working on creating their own financial system for years. The last I heard, they were laying their own internet cable on the ocean floor so they can bypass New York. That’s pretty advanced planning don’t you think? Why would they do that if they weren’t planning to use it? With a total meltdown of the global monetary system, perhaps the BRICS will finally announce “We’re just going to do our own thing, thank you very much. Anyone who wants to join, let us know”. Yikes!
            6) Will the USD/IMF have any credibility at that point? At the very minimum, they will have to prove up their reserves. Would that not be so? How else to restore credibility?
            7) Who would join the BRICS? Australia is probably high on the list, Germany too. If Kirby is right about Germany doing war exercises with China, and Turkey is now using a Russian missile defense system, the signs are already in place that 1) the West is fracturing and 2) we are moving to at least a bipolar world. So now we have bipolar currencies. (Oy Vey! My wife is bipolar… just joking).

            I like your idea of gold and silver being worth 10 times current prices. I think that’s reasonable, certainly with Rickard’s metrics. I just don’t know if Rickard’s metrics will prevail.

            The other thing we must not forget is the issue of naked shorts. Naked shorts could very quickly become naked longs, bid the price up to $40-50,000 an ounce. All the gold bugs will screaming “See, I’m so smart, I told you so. Buy more. Gold is going to $100,000). So then every mom and pop buys at $50,000, the globalists cash out their longs, reverse position and you see gold tumble back to $15,000. The result? The Middle Class gets fleeced again. So be careful. Have a core position you never sell and if you intend to speculate a bit, know exactly how much it is, be disciplined and sell high.

            That’s my two cents. Thanks again for your insights. If you think I’m way out on limb with these comments, please let me know. Always happy to look at things from another point of view.

            • Frederick

              Too long Who has time?

            • William Stanley

              Good discussion; thanks!

              • Hockey Puck

                Been thinking a lot about MONEYNESS. Very valuable! Bitcoin, near as I can see, is low on the list. That makes it a speculative asset.

      • David

        Most people lack discretionary dollars necessary to buy gold and, in a real disaster of any significant magnitude, gold will be of little use. True, it may reserve wealth and even make you wealthier, but it won’t serve well as a medium of exchange for the items that you desperately need day-to-day.

        • Greg Hunter

          This is not going to be easy. People want a simple solution that will not effect their day to day lifestyle. Forget it– If anyone thinks they can have a no hassle solution to what we face they are in a fantasy world. Cut your cable, get a burner phone and trash the stupid phone, stop eating put, conserve fuel cut back everywhere until it hurts and cut some more. Then, divert your money to some silver each and every week. Buy food that will store as well as water and hold some cash. You better work on getting ready and do not forget to Pray to Jesus for strength and guidance.

          • David

            Greg: You and I are in full agreement. Life will become very difficult indeed! If we start living today like we will have to survive tomorrow, then we’ll be able to manage our way through the tough times. We work everyday to be emotionally, spiritually, and physically ready.

            Thanks for all you do!

          • john


          • Frederick

            Great advice Greg I haven’t had a phone for ten years and frankly don’t miss it We only eat out at reasonable places and here in Turkey you can eat good food ,cheaply Our TV is free with a satellite dish and our electric bill with AC during the heat of the day is around 35 dollars a month We use solar hot water This year I planted a nice garden on some terraced land and I’ve now got a bumper crop I’ve got some extra cash and I’m looking closely at the metals recently Mining stocks as well look like buys
            I’m off to Warsaw next week to deal with some real estate I own there Will report to you anything of interest

        • Galaxy 500

          Silver will be a good medium for trade, as will food, alcohol, cigarettes and medicines if things get as bad as we think they will have to so that everything can reset. That gigantic Shiite sandwich of debt has to dissipate. Lives will be hard and crime and poverty will be every where.
          Just my 2 centavos and worth every cent I am charging

          • K. Wayne

            You’d better have a cache of weapons to protect all that because in a world in which fiat money is useless, you will have societal chaos. Guaranteed!!
            Trade or barter will only exist if there is some degree of civility and recognition of laws. Desperate people will do desperate things. How do you expect to use your silver coinage in times of savagery?
            Map this out logically. Don’t assume everyone is stacking like you or willing to play by the rules.

            • Galaxy 500

              Look up ATF Form 4s and then comment on my level of preparation. I assume nothing. I expect anarchy for a period of time. I expect to have to defend those I hold dear with deadly force.
              Anyone that is on this site should be smart enough to have multiple weapons and ammo. More than that, they should be versed in their use. I live in the Hinterlands and we have a like minded group. But to be honest, few know everything I have and where it is.

              • Jodyp

                “few know everything I have and where it is”… the key to success.

          • K. Wayne

            Like you I sense that the bursting of the gigantic debt and everything bubble will bring about a global banruptcy, creating the necessary conditions of chaos, civil unrest/ racial war and blood thirsty savagery.
            There is nothing about these luciferians that gives me any degree of comfort….. they will ensure their own safety before they consider the welfare of the masses. Each man to his own. That is what we need to observe. Well organized and supplied State malitia could possibly be a solution. It wont work for everyone. Self inflicted Depopulation is in the cards.

          • Freebrezer

            G-500 You forgot to mention that ammo will all so be a great medium of exchange!

        • Uncommon Sense

          People use the same argument not to eat healthily, ‘it’s too expensive’. The reality is that junk food can be pretty expensive whilst a bag of sweet potatoes is relatively cheap. People just don’t want to eat healthily so it is just an excuse. In the long run if you lose your health it works out much more expensive. People don’t buy gold and silver because they don’t want to not because they can’t afford it. They always have money to smoke and drink etc. As for you point about it being useless as a medium of exchange, perhaps we won’t have a complete breakdown in society. Nobody really knows what the outcome of all this will be because as humans we have never encountered this situation before.

          • David

            Uncommon: A 2018 Fed Reserve study found that almost 40% of American adults wouldn’t be able to cover a $400 emergency with cash, savings or a credit-card charge that they could quickly pay. I’m sure there are folks who have misaligned priorities, but there are a lot of families struggling.

            As Greg often says, store food, water, toiletries, clothing and other items to see you through the rough times. Prepare food at home, grow your own food, and have alternative methods for cooking.

            • Uncommon Sense

              Yet a lot still smoke and drink.

              • Frederick

                They may drink even more with what’s in store for them sadly I drink too once in awhile As a matter of fact I’m looking forward to the great beer in Warsaw next week Happy hour steins of Czech and Polish beers for 6 Zloty or a dollar and a half Gotta love Poland

            • Montana Guy

              David, quoting the 2018 Fed report,” 12 percent would not be able to cover it”.

              The report said, “75 percent of U.S. adults said they were “doing okay” or “living comfortably”—up 12 percentage points from 2013.” History gives valuable perspective. Living through the Dust Bowl was ‘struggling’.

            • uncommon sense

              “People living in the most deprived areas of England were more than four times more likely to smoke in 2016 than those living in the least deprived areas.”

              “A person’s likelihood of smoking1 increased in line with the level of deprivation in their neighbourhood2, according to new analysis by Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Public Health England.”

              Cigarettes are very expensive in Britain due to the tax. I understand that their are psychological factors at play here e.g. stress, dissatisfaction with life etc. but disadvantaged people are spending money on something which is certainly not a necessity for survival (quite the opposite).


      • Steve Bice

        Using the “Kiss” method: Gold in 1980 spiked to $800 when the Feds lost control of the gold market. We will assume this is a baseline for an “unmanipulated” (market) price. Based on inflation alone (likely conservative, since inflation is likely understated), gold should be $2,486.

        In 1980, the national debt was approximately $900 billion. Today, it is at a minimum $22 trillion, roughly 24 times higher. Twenty-four times our inflation adjusted gold price of $2486 brings you close to $60,000 per ounce. If you include the “lost” $21 trillion, you can basically double that number. $120,000 per ounce gets you in the neighborhood of Holter’s number…and should keep you in beans and rice.

        • William Stanley

          I can see the VERY rough logic of dividing money supply by ounces of gold to arrive at an estimate of the potential dollar price of gold (if a gold-backed dollar is assumed and the gold that is supposedly held by the treasury is pledged for that purpose and actually exchanged — on demand — for dollars).
          That is essentially Mr. Rickards’ approach, although he doesn’t assume 100% backing by gold. However, one big problem with his approach is the smuggled-in assumption that — going forward — the government’s budget deficit disappears in order to avoid having to obtain more gold every year to back the newly created dollars used to finance the government’s ongoing budget deficits.
          Mr. Holter is similarly challenged in dealing with the ongoing budget deficits and their effects on the values of gold and dollars going forward. Moreover, to my knowledge, Mr. Holter has never explained the logic in dividing the DEBT by ounces of gold . . . although, perhaps, he is using debt as a rough approximation of the store of value function of outstanding debt instruments (such as bonds) that would somehow be sold to buy gold (thus driving down the price of bonds while, simultaneously, driving up the price of gold).
          As an aside, I think I do understand Mr. Hunter’s insinuation that there could be outright default on the debt. No doubt that would provide a large impetus for moving to a gold-backed dollar with a VERY high price for gold. And, I think, that would also destroy the government’s ability to borrow money on a grand scale. Which would, by itself, cause huge economic disruption, unemployment, etc. in the short and medium terms.
          IMO, there just isn’t any way out of this mess that doesn’t involve massive pain.

          • Steve Bice

            Hi William: Are we having fun yet? Just playing with numbers and ratios to compare 1980 (when “they” lost control) to today to get an idea of how gold might perform.

            Debt has functioned as money in terms of its capacity to drive up asset values into the stratosphere. To support those asset values in a fiat implosion, gold would have to assume like value or the assets would have to crash to maintain an equilibrium. (Run-away debt has arguably been more the driver of asset values than has M1. M1 likely understates the effects on asset values.)

            In my first “model”, I recognize that inflation should to some degree have been driven by the runaway debt…which suggests a degree of double counting. But the debt has moved largely into housing and financial assets while consumer inflation has remained (officially) tame. So, one can argue that it is reasonable to apply (most of) the debt multiplier in addition to the official inflation rate.

            I doubt a model exists that can accurately predict the gold price or any other component of an emerging economic reset. That said, people continually use Mark Twain’s quote about history rhyming rather than repeating (always without attribution), and historical ratios may give us insight into how the gold “poem” rhymes in 2020. Correlation vs. causation: Sometimes variables move together without one causing the other. Remember, “Nothing is new under the sun…”

            Have fun…while we can. I am…

            • Steve Bice

              P.P.S. “To support those asset values in a fiat implosion, gold would have to assume like value or the assets would have to crash to maintain an equilibrium.”

              Either way, the holder of gold wins. The number doesn’t matter. Purchasing power does…

          • K. Wayne

            ….”IMO, there just isn’t any way out of this mess that doesn’t involve massive pain”
            I believe you have captured their inner thoughts and actual understanding of the matter. They aren’t clueless…they know exactly what the end game is. It may not be tomorrow or in 5 yrs, but it will come before the middle of this century.

          • Steve Bice

            Re: Ongoing government deficits. Understood. But I cannot imagine a scenario where government programs and spending will not reset also. Reset = collapse and abandonment of programs en masse. There will be no way to support them in the absence of monetary profligacy. (We won’t recognize health care after the reset.) These reductions alone should result in a 25% reduction in GDP.

            Pain? You bet. I absolutely agree.

        • Steve Bice

          P.S. If you look at the ratio of the gold price to debt in 1980 and apply that ratio to our current debt of $22T, you get a $20,000 gold price…or $40,000 if you include the additional/missing $21T. One could argue that debt to GDP levels were still within reason in 1980 and the ratio should be much higher today since vastly more fiat should be seeking to escape to gold with debt levels threatening system stability. So, at least to me, a price between the two approaches seems reasonable…say, $80,000. Advantage, Holter.

          • Hockey Puck

            Steve, William. Thanks for the brilliant discussion. One question remains. Is there any independent and transparent mechanism to audit central bank gold reserves? Is our only option to trust the bankers again? If there is no mechanism, I suspect we’re looking at a period of unbelievable speculation. Add to this the issue of naked shorts/naked longs… we’re looking at volatility like we’ve never seen before. Don’t you think? This could get insane.

            • William Stanley

              1. I would think that central banks would enjoy different degrees of trust. Those enjoying lower trust would trade at a higher discount to gold.
              There was a period in US history when each bank could issue its own banknotes. The banknotes of different banks had different discounts relative to gold, depending on reputation.
              2. I think that your point about PM derivatives manipulations potentially magnifying volatility and risk during periods of upward trends in spot PM prices is valid and important.
              3. Indeed, I sometimes wonder whether central banks sometimes try to increase the volatility of PM prices precisely in order to damage the “moneyness” of PMs relative to fiat and, hence, to depress their prices in terms of fiat.

  10. Jerry

    I’m surprised Jim Rickards didn’t talk about China and the role they will play in the global currency reset. After all AIIB just hit a milestone.

    100 nations have now joined their international banking system. While some scoff at the predictions that have been made about China that have not come to past ..yet, no one can explain why two former treasury secretaries , Hank Paulsen ( Bush admin.) and Timothy Giethner ( Obama admin.) have been working with the PBOC to set up a Yuan trading platform inside our banking system, and why
    the central banks are hoarding gold? I think the answer is obvious.
    They are planning for a global currency reset. While the details have yet to be revealed, based on his post throughout the years Jim Rickards knows that China and gold will be the main players in it. Having said that, the question is will they wait until after the 2020 election to pull the trigger? In my humble opinion, I don’t think anyone really knows. If there is default in the credit default swaps with Deutsche Banks derivatives, it could be tomorrow. Who knows? But know this. Rising gold prices are a signal of pressure building inside the central banks, and unless they smash the pricing back down again, like they did in 2012, this whole thing could go up in smoke rather quickly triggering a reset. Two things I’m looking at. The next quarterly money velocity report, and whether gold makes it above 1700.

    • Jerry

      No, there’s nothing to see here. Move along.

    • Jerry

      This is what Jim Rickards was saying only a year ago.

      And now we’re being told that the reset will hinge on the 2020 election? More can kicking.

      • Kraig

        I don’t understand his 10% gold allocation recommendation. For a decade now, spanning 4 books, he’s laid out a long detailed story of debt monetization and its sundry consequences. He can deliver a 30-minute answer from memory that includes dozens of financial measurements that portend doom and devastation ahead. Given all this I would expect him to highly recommend over-weighting your gold allocation to somewhere in the 30-50% range. There’s an inconsistency to his message that I can’t resolve in my head.

        • William Stanley

          Re: 10% of portfolio in gold versus 30-50%
          It seems to me that Mr. Rickards could be implicitly admitting that no one, not even him, knows what actually will happen. What if gold is confiscated, or made unlawful for certain transactions, or its price gains are taxed away as “windfall” profits? What can you “afford” to lose?

          • paul ...

            William … The Military Industrial Complex should be very fearfull their “windfall profits” will be taxed away by us … if they dare blow up the world with more continuous wars and thus need to confiscate away “our real savings” in gold and silver to pay for all their purposely created wars (because they can’t get China to buy our Treasuries any longer)!!

    • Steve Bice

      Hi HP: You kicked off this discussion about the gold price, and while one can have a pretty clear sense of direction, the best we can do on price is an educated guess. The odds of having any transparency with regard to U.S. gold holdings are low, unless crisis and competitive gold-related currency revaluation forces the hand of the Treasury Department. This could happen…but all bets are off if the gold is “gone”.

      A lot of folks are betting on the physical market ultimately destroying the manipulative impact of the Comex and LME, so gold and silver can move freely with supply and demand as primary price drivers. Volatility will likely be with us until the metals find their equilibrium prices unfettered by the “false supply” currently created in the “paper” markets.

      With regard to “this could get insane”, there is no better marker of insanity than the “budget” and debt increases pending approval in the house and senate. These people are either morally bankrupt or have lost their ever-loving minds. Most of us suspect it is both.

      Restraint is a trait of a bygone era and recklessness is the order of the day. What people do not realize is that recklessness thrives for a short time only because it feeds on the stability and storehouses of a preceding period of restraint. I suspect this is not only true in the financial arena, but in the political and social realms as well. We are living on the edge, and destroying our legacy “wealth” across the all aspects of society. There will be a reckoning.

      The move away from the dollar by other nations (and abandonment of U.S. Treasury bill purchases) is the death knell. Using the swift system as a weapon has been a tactical success and a huge strategic error. The long game is the one the matters…and the U.S. has failed miserably in this regard.

      We do the best we can, and try to enjoy each day. Best wishes to you, William, Greg and the rest of the crew here at the Watchdog.

      Buckle up.

  11. Chip

    Should be a good interview but i will miss the WNW… )-: