Bond Market Explosion Not Stoppable-Craig Hemke
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release)
Financial expert Craig Hemke says there is an explosion coming in the bond market–it’s just a matter of when. Hemke explains, “Yes, at some time eventually, yes, just because mathematically the debt based system is unsustainable. It’s now grown so large in the amount of continued debt that it takes to service the existing debt makes it all move exponentially against you, and it is spiraling towards an eventual failure.”
What can they do to stop the bond market from blowing up? Hemke contends, “You can’t. It’s not stoppable and it’s not sustainable. At some point, it simply collapses. As much as the pundits and money managers and talking heads on the financial TV want to convince everyone that everything is fine . . .and it’s just bliss and nirvana. Eventually, it is a mathematical certainty that the music stops. Getting back to China, we have ceded control of that to them . . . They can pull the plug on it whenever they want, and that is the most dangerous part of where we are headed.”
Hemke, who has Wall Street experience that dates back to 1990, says, “The whole thing is a charade akin to a movie set. . . . We have the illusion of markets, and that is propped up on a daily basis by the financial media who has an interest in propping it up. They parade money managers on there who have an interest in making it seem all is well because they are collecting fees. You also have the Fed pretending to be in control through their interest rate policies and trying to make it sound like the economy is doing just fine. . . .All of it is a hall of mirrors or a charade to try to convince everybody that it is all okay. When I got into this business 25 years ago, there was an actually functioning stock market . . . it was buyers and sellers, actually real people. Now, 75% of the volume of the listed stocks is done by high frequency trading computers. . . . It is a fraud, a scam and a charade.”
On the US dollar, Hemke says, “I think the dollar will lose purchasing power dramatically. We have been printing dollars and shipping them all overseas for 40 years. Those dollars are tied up in our bonds and in foreign currency reserves in other nations that have been forced to soak them up. As the dollar loses its reserve currency status, which it is going to do because we are not using the reserve currency from 100 years ago or 1,000 years ago because these things change. When it changes, all those existing dollars are going to come home. It will devalue in multiples, the ones we have now. Inflation is going to go through the roof, and it’s a totally different world. That is probably a best case scenario. What I really worry about is that transition from one financial scheme to the next is never done peacefully. The hegemon that has the printing press, that has the reserve currency, they don’t just sit back and say we’ve had our time in the sun. Now it’s your turn. No, they fight as hard as they can to protect and defend that. That’s my biggest concern.”
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Craig Hemke, founder of TFMetalsReport.com.
(There is much more in the video interview)
After the Interview:
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About the Author
Greg Hunter
Greg is the producer and creator of USAWatchdog.com. The site’s slogan is “analyzing the news to give you a clear picture of what’s really going on.” The site will keep an eye on the government, your financial interests and cut through the media spin. USAWatchdog.com is neither Democrat nor Republican, Liberal or Conservative. Before creating and producing the site, Greg spent nearly 9 years as a network and investigative correspondent. He worked for ABC News and Good Morning America for nearly 6 years. Most recently, Greg worked for CNN for shows such as Paula Zahn Now, American Morning and various CNN business shows.
Craig is one of the best! I’ve been a subscriber of TFmetals for a few years. He gives a great daily perspective of the markets and usually has a weekly guest interview. Super comment section too, like this site has. Thanks for having him on Greg! You always have great guests!
Thank you Jim. Craig cam on with short notice and gave a very good insightful and timely interview. He knows his stuff!!!
Greg
Hi Greg
I think, your guest miss one important point. The USA threw the Saudis under the bus on several occasions, like the creation of ISIS, the “Arab spring” doesn’t helped them either etc.
So they wont block the Suez canal or the Hormuz strait, but they will sell the treasuries and switch their alliances to Russia and China, eventually. And of course they will price oil also in Yuan/RMB.
My 2 cents
Oracle 911
Greg: You’ve had so many great guests on; thanks. But there are 2 that stand out for me: This interview with CRAIG HEMKE and your last interview with NOMI PRINS!! They relate to both the WORKING CLASS and THE MIDDLE CLASS—they know a ton, they see the mega-big picture and trigger points and are both super articulate!
The “COMMON MAN” is lucky to have you on the web, Greg!
Thank you RonJ!! Nomi Prins will be on in the next few weeks. I am sure she will have some new perspective and maybe some more scoop for the financial elites.
Greg
September 1, no collapse.
Thomas,
September 2nd–300 point drop at the open and wild market swings. Not the sign of a healthy market or economy.
Greg
Market can stay liquid and irrational for many years, it was an ugly open.
I’ve been a satisfied member of Craig’s site TFMetalsReport.com for a couple of years now. Happy to see you interviewing him here, Greg. I’m out of the markets – my savings is in cash and PMs, and my family is now living in a very rural area. Know what? I don’t miss the city, the suburbs, the salary or the hassles at all. I trade with my neighbors for needed supplies and services and am learning great skills in the process. It doesn’t take a financial genius to figure out a global financial reset is needed. We are witnessing the birth pangs now. People need to get defensive with their assets.
I’m sure there is money to be made shorting entire sectors during the upcoming implosion, but a lot of risk takers will get burned in the process. I am going to sit this one out and tend to our chickens and turkeys and get started on a couple head of cattle.
I can understand why China would be selling the US Treasuries. But what I’d like to know is, who is buying them? I had long believed that there was no one left (apart from the Fed themselves) who could absorb this amount of inventory, in the current environment. Greg — could you begin to ask your guests who they think is buying the additional supply — are we witnessing monetization of the debt? thanks and keep up the great work.
I believe zerohedge traced the first bond selling about a year ago. Supposedly Belgium bought the sold bonds. Then everyone said ” Well is this the Fed thru the back door”. Maybe searching on zerohedge will find this original information.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-17/china-dumps-record-143-billion-us-treasurys-three-months-belgium
Excellent!
The ‘BLICS’…
This guy was really good. Young, energetic, articulate and quite believable and honest about not wanting to both pick a calamity coupled with a date. Best I’ve heard todate imo. Thanks Greg for letting him run with the ball too.
Greg,
Craig Hempke is sure right about the person trying to make money with PM’s, by buying and selling and getting worthless dollars. I have spent my wad when I took possession and got out of all assets in the markets. Had to pay taxes, but I don’t want to be one of the people who are holding paper gold and silver. Can you imagine when they find out the one ounce has been sold…who knows 100 times over.
Will be getting ready for the last game. Will check my stock and replace what I need. Had a thought…if things shut down because of transportation difficulties people are not going to be able to get food ….but what people need to be aware of is medication. If Wally World shuts down or Kroger cannot get a new shipment in your done. I have a thyroid problem so I am on medication for that. With the call system at Kroger they only wait about 3 weeks to get your new prescription renewed. I also have liquid iodine in case I cannot get my meds. What are all the people who have to have meds to live going to do??? What about the people (Including kids) that need insulin? I feel sorry for those people. The future looks so horrible.
Printed off my bank statement and credit card statement. Remember at some point in time when the banks shut down or go bankrupt you will have to prove you paid say your house note. I will be taking money out of my account probably Friday the 11th for starters and say Monday if there is not bank holiday put it back. Will gas up the car and make sure all my can are full of fuel. I will run scenario probably 2 or 3 more times.
Went to confession, rosary followed by mass with communion. Got to get yourself right with the Lord. I don’t want to be caught off guard and end up someplace no one wants to be …hell. I feel as if I have tried very hard to prepare and have been doing this for 5 years. As long as I am right with God I feel a tremendous sense of peace and do not intend to let chaos in.
Thanks for this site Greg. You have a BIG heart.
Thank you SG!!
Greg
….but what people need to be aware of is medication. If Wally World shuts down or Kroger cannot get a new shipment in your done. I have a thyroid problem so I am on medication for that. With the call system at Kroger they only wait about 3 weeks to get your new prescription renewed. I also have liquid iodine in case I cannot get my meds. What are all the people who have to have meds to live going to do??? What about the people (Including kids) that need insulin? I feel sorry for those people. The future looks so horrible.
Southern Girl, meds are a huge concern on a very nice survival/prepper forum I frequent. It seems a lot of preppers are a bit older; of course, they’re likely preppers due to having seen much and can’t fathom what our political electees are doing or not doing and our trend toward moral devolvement but I digress. Even I make my own elderberry tincture during flu season. I don’ do flu shots but I never have gotten the flu since leaving the service where shots were mandatory. Good onya for mentioning this. You can’t go wrong on using your fiat garbage on goods like meds you know you’ll need at some point. They tent to always inflate, good times or bad.
Tent, tend; ta-may-to, ta-mah-toe.
SG you might find these Marian prophecies of our times and the Pope interesting!
http://twoheartspress.com/blog/how-to-respond-if-pope-francis-is-the-false-prophet-2/
John Duffy,
Thanks for the link. I have always known that he is not to be trusted. Call it the Holy Spirit or what but I don’t like him. I think the more conservative Catholics won’t go along with him, especially after his visit and speech.
SG, I have thought of the medication problem so I have ordered a year’s supply of both my and my husband’s prescriptions from Canada. Thankfully, I was able to get them all. Also, I have got antibiotics for fish that are equal to human antibiotics. I have used them and they worked wonderfully. Look up Doom and Bloom to learn more.
A really really good interview Greg. Well done !!
The guest is spot on when he says that you need to know how much gold the US truly has on reserve, to even begin to figure out what the residual value of a dollar might be. For instance, what is the value of gold in confederate currency from the civil war? As collectibles, they have some residual value, but in monetary terms, the value of gold priced in confederate dollars is infinity.
One side point I’d like to make… I have read accounts of modern day hyper-inflation, written by people who lived through it. They typically say that you don’t want to use the gold and silver during the teeth of the crisis. At that time, you don’t necessarily get a good exchange rate. What is typically recommended? That you have enough food, water and goods available for barter DURING THE CRISIS, so that you emerge on the other side of the crisis with your gold and silver in tact.
In that way, the precious metals can then be remonitized into whatever the new unit of exchange becomes. But during the crisis, you want to be as self sufficient as possible and have case of scotch, toilet tissue, medical supplies, etc. for the purpose of barter.
And don’t forget the foods that have a very long shelf life: sugar, honey, molasses, salt, tea, and freeze dried coffee!
Great interview Greg. Learned a lot! Thank you!
To gauge the seriousness of all this (the situation with China and its real or perceived ramifications), simply pay attention to the frequency and intensity of negative ‘propaganda’ towards China, served up by your everyday mainstream media outlets, as they ~are~ mouthpieces for the power structure apparatus.
If there is any real threat to the $USD/$UST and by extension, projection of U.S. power abroad to control said hegemony, you will see it broadcasted loud & clear on a continual and amplified basis in the days & weeks to come. This could and/or will be accompanied by actual military movements (naval) in and around the Philippine islands, Australia and China’s waters themselves – all in a carefully ratcheted up sequence to ‘send a message’.
Incidentally, I fully expect any ‘response’ by China to be carefully communicated and coordinated with Russia, as both nations are fully aware that they cannot confront the U.S. alone, and in fact, have been and are coordinating with each other to deal with the U.S. on both economic and military levels – with an emphasis on ‘coordinated’.
Russia and China – Gog and Magog. We are watching the fulfillment of Bible prophecy in our times, and their ties to each other will only get stronger as this crisis unfolds.
That analysis has yet to be proven…
I feel more in common with Putin than with Obama
No! It’s Juug and MaJuug!
WHY IS EVERYBODY OBCESSING? CHINA HAS BEEN A PAPER TIGAR FOREVER. LET THEM SELL THEIR TREASURIES TO WHOEVER WANTS THEM. WE DON’T NEED WHAT WALMART SELLS US FROM CHINA. WE DON’T NEED WHAT THE UKRAINE HAS TO SELL. WE NEED TO JUST GO HOME AND SUPPORT EACH OTHER. WE ARE CAPABLE. WE DON’T NEED ANYTHING INCLUDING OIL. LET’S JUST USE WHAT WE ARE ABLE TO DO OURSELVES
The CAP lock button is located on the left side of the keyboard about 4 rows down. Spellcheck can be useful when applied.
Thanks.
Caps lock button stuck is cuter than sarcasm button stuck. 🙂
You mean – live and work like the Amish?!??
” WE DON’T NEED WHAT WALMART SELLS US FROM CHINA. WE DON’T NEED WHAT THE UKRAINE HAS TO SELL. WE NEED TO JUST GO HOME AND SUPPORT EACH OTHER. WE ARE CAPABLE. WE DON’T NEED ANYTHING INCLUDING OIL. LET’S JUST USE WHAT WE ARE ABLE TO DO OURSELVES”. And what can Americans do by themselves? Hmmmm… We raise GMO corn and beans real well, we churn out violent video games and worthless subversive amoral movies, we assassinate black people and cops pretty good, and we give public money to agencies that abort babies and then get money for selling their parts. Do we have factories that produce anything of real value anymore? I don’t see them if we do. Even our infrastructure is crumbling. The Lord says “if you are faithful with a small thing, you will be faithful with a larger thing.” (Paraphrase) This country has wandered off the path of self-sufficiency, and has ceased to be faithful with anything large or small for quite some time. The vast majority of our citizens are weak physically, mentally and morally. We have not taken care of our own nation before – how do you think we will take care of it in the future? There would have to be a sea-change in America in order for that to happen.
During the last 26 years (since Reagan), Corporate America and DC betrayed America with detrimental trade agreements and export of knowledge and technology.
Walmart and China are our favorite whipping boys but it is all talk. I challenge any American family go one month without buying imported goods. We are building a Homestead. It kills me to think of all the imported materials, tools and goods that we have purchased.
I hate to say it but American manufacturing is not coming back. And neither is America. ‘Trans’ is the buzzword today. Well, we are living in a transnation.
Thomas Jefferson, warned us. He said, “Merchants have no country. The mere spot they stand on does not constitute so strong an attachment as that from which they draw their gains.”
Tigar?
OBCESSING was an interesting variation too!
What does Ukraine have to sell anyway? Maybe we can ask Joe Biden’s son. I bet he would know. 🙂
I wonder how long Ted would get by without oil?
Sorry, but I have to wonder if Ted is a troll.
CD
Great interview Greg.
Here are the charts Mr Hemke was talking about re gold flowing west to east
https://smaulgld.com/gold-moving-west-to-east-an-illustration/
I wonder if that part of the world is going to get heavier and throw off the spin of the earth on it’s axis?
I think we should set up a think tank to study the effect that That ONE will have on Global Warming! 🙂
CD
You mean like THIS:
Watch as Congressman Hank Johnson warns of the real danger of land masses tipping over:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cesSRfXqS1Q
Another brilliant interview👏👏👏.
Stay blessed
Abraham
I agree with you on that one Abe. BTW, I like your pictures!
Greg, the Chinese leadership is beginning to lay the groundwork for decoupling from the dollar and the IMF.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/29/news/china-vice-finance-minister-zhu-guangyao-stock-market/
– AIIB
– CIPS
– Gold Purchases
were all developed to make this happen, while our government purchased 2700 assault vehicles and 3 Billion rounds of hollow point bullets. It is complete lunacy to believe that the Chinese will not make this move before the end of September. Please, please prepare. This is it.
Greg its happening again. This is no coincidence!
https://twitter.com/News_Executive?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
This in no doubt a second message being sent by the western baking cabal to the Chinese leadership to stop meddling with the dollar. If the Chinese weren’t planning to decouple from the dollar before, they sure in the heck are now. This is HUGE!
Jerry Is this the correct link? (Which is also big news.)
Greg
Scroll down. This is breaking news on a twitter account in China.
Greg here is another link to the story.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/china-explosion-city-dongying-rocked-6357544
You tell me what you think it looks like?
This is second explosion in a week….can’t be coincidence
Breaking: A blast seen and heard in a chemical industry zone in #Lijin, #China, no words on injuries or damages
Greg, Only 2 weeks from the end of the shmittah. Only 4 weeks away from the end of the tetrad. I think we are seeing signs in the heavens and on earth. Not one of my friends or relatives would even consider reading my book by Johnathan Cahn on the shmittah. We truly have an illusion of markets. Our media has one agenda, propaganda. Our educational system has taken God out of the picture. We are told to never discuss politics or religion because we will cause controversy. Our foundation of truth liberty, and rational objective thought has been replaced with eat drink and be marry. I believe we truly live in biblical times. Let us prepare physically, mentally, and above all spiritually. Thanks for being a voice for truth. Thanks for all your great guest. May God bless you and all those who spread the truth, that we may have His eternal peace in our hearts. After the shemitah comes the year of jubilee. This is the time our souls long for, when the great restoration of Israel will take place. This event is huge. Watch and be ready!
It would be really interesting to get guests on here who can speak about the US renaissance that is going on in manufacturing. This has been happening since before 2008, but has accelerated during the time we have also lost a lot of jobs in all sectors. I’ve worked in the energy business now for 30 years. My clients are mostly industrial, perhaps 80%, and the rest commercial. The mass layoffs have continued no doubt, but my observation is they are old industry, destined to die anyway. The one thing everyone keeps missing, is how incredibly cheap our energy is vs the rest of the world. Industry and manufacturing in particular is energy intensive. Our natural gas here in the US has spot prices well below $3/mmBtu. While much of the rest of the developed world pays well north of $10/mmbtu. In China, it runs as high as $17/mmbtu. So while currencies are fighting and devaluing, labor costs have been rising exceptionally in all of the emerging country’s, and especially in China. Many of the industrial firms abroad are now re-shoring, and creating new jobs in industries that are going to be the leaders in the 21st century. Sure they are designing the factories to be smaller with fewer people, but they are creating jobs. To seek a one for one replacement of jobs leaving, vs new jobs coming, is ill-fated and not the goal. There are hundreds upon hundreds of new industrial firms coming to the US from other locations, because energy here is plentiful, it is cheap, our dirty coal power plants going away (was 50% of the energy mix less than 5 years ago), and now it is only 34% of the mix. Our natural infrastructure has not only been the best for decades vs any country on the planet, but it has become massively bigger, and more robust, with far reaching distribution, as most of the power plants coming on line have been 60% plus efficient combine cycle plants running on cleaner natural gas. Emissions of these plants are 1/100th or less of the prior coal plants, and those plants leaving were less than 34% efficient. Efficiency improvement of power, and power reliability is still 10 times to sometimes 100 times better than any other nations. For industry to exist, you need energy, and electricity, and have it reliable. China doesn’t even come close, and US based firms who built in China or outsourced in China, have suffered massively in terms of all of their outages in China. Its gotten worse, not better. US firms sourcing there has tolerated it for 2 decades, but only bc labor was cheap. They also tolerated poor quality. But that is no longer the case that they wish to tolerate any of it, and energy is the biggest draw back, along with better quality control procedures and better quality labor, and labor that is educated appropriately for the higher tech tasks. You have to remember, the jobs that China took in factories were super low skill, high labor intensive. Well super low skill is being replaced by robots and machines. So our new factories have those robots, and far more complex machines, but we can use vocational college trained labor to run them. So they are far higher paying than China’s, or the prior labor that has shifted to Mexico. So its not a zero sum game folks. This transitional period is prolonged and painful for many, but believe it or not, Trumps ‘make America Great Again’ slogan is resonating, bc its actually already happening. The people on the ground know that, but they also know its not happening fast enough for those who haven’t retrained themselves or found work, where jobs are in huge demand, going unfilled, or going to better educated and trained people. Many are immigrants, but highly educated ones taking those jobs. So Trump knows bc of his business dealings, America is already in this renaissance, but he is also smart enough to know, negativity sells, and not enough Americans have participated in the new economy. We are way ahead of every country on this front, especially Europe, of all Asia, and Russia. The dirt cheap energy is helping us immensely, and the bs you hear about oil hurting our fracking, is nonsense. We lead the world in that technology, and the Saudi’s know it, and know and fear that we have barely scratched the surface, bc we are doing here first, but then taking it worldwide, where it replaces the OLD economy way of drilling. As bad as things look in the markets, and currency wars and devaluations, you have to remember that all that time the world and business still keeps functioning, becoming more competitive, re-trenching, developing new technologies to replace the obsolete ones, and the US still leads the world in most of this new technology implementation, bc we don’t have wars here on our land, we have the best energy infrastructure, and still best transportation infrastructure and 100 times best distribution and logistics than any other country on the planet. Efficiency improvements are hitting on all cylinders and in every business practice, and market niche here in the US. Its cutthroat no doubt, for jobs, but thats like a football team having strong competition each pre-season and training camp. The best make the team, and the team becomes the most competitive in the season. Ive seen businesses change for the better in terms of competitiveness here in the US. Its remarkable. The headlines though only and mostly show the negatives, such as mass layoffs. The good stuff is too boring. Try some optimistic guests sometime Greg, and some really educated on the new economy, energy, the Internet of Things, and you may have a better balance and a little more hope. You all do want hope and good news don’t you ? Personally, I hope I never have to use my pm’s.
Inexpensive energy did not hold back the last big downturn in 07 & 8. Not sure it will make a difference this time. Bubbles in numerous areas now. Cars, educational loans, bonds etc. Read the average car loan credit score is 520 and 20 percent of those loans have no credit rating. Lots of new cars on the road with youthful drivers in my area. May be more to this picture than can be readily observed in one view.
@Jim as I remember WTI was as high as 147 a barrel just before the collapse so it wasnt exactly inexpensive energy
Yeah your right but it didn’t last long. Was steady than worked up starting in summer 07 ,peaked in summer 08 and fell to the 30’s February 09. I remember some said that was a gift to us for our action in Desert Storm. I think the high was end of July 08 because I took a call at our county fair about selling a couple contracts near the high. I recall the thought was it really wouldn’t stop much activity here till it got to near 200 which didn’t happen but the housing thing was falling hard here by the end of the year. We we’re never more than $4.20 at the pump here for a short time. A lot of complaints but rv’s here in Elkhart, IN continued to sell till other things contracted.
Can you break up your writings into paragraphs? For those of us old folks, it makes it much easier to read.
Otherwise I just skip writings such as these.
Thanks.
I agree. I didn’t read it either
Some good positives notes…thank you!
Mike R.,
As I read your comment I am reminded of Greg’s interview some time back with Catherine Austin Fitts who made a similar over all assessment. Basically all the legacy debt related to the ” old economy” will fail, yet there is significant investment in new technology which is not linked to old economy legacy debt and is very dynamic. This is my summary based on recollection of her comments during the interview.
Catherine Austin Fitts, and others, have made crystal-clear that some geographic regions, and economic sectors, within the U.S., are going like gang-busters.
You, apparently, are in one of them. You are in a minority.
And don’t forget Mike, follow the yellow bric’s road, follow the yellow bric’s road. . .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THbY7EL8k5w
Mike R
Just one of many wee problems that you may well have overlooked in all your optimism:
The US per capita total debt [including entitlements and unfunded liabilities] comes in at over $700,000 for every man, woman and child. This in essence means you as a nation have spent one hell of a lot of somebody else’s money. You have no way out of this monumental debt except default!
The US is insolvent!
Cheap energy ain’t gunno do it pal.
From where I am standing there is an awful lot of ill-founded optimism being spread around already without WD buying into this habit as well.
Apart from you joining the chorus I will name but a few other sources:
➢ The Fed
➢ Wall street
➢ Lame stream media
In all there is already more than enough misplaced sense of well being in the population. This only accentuates the problem, it doesn’t address it.
It’s a bit like not opening your mail when you are insolvent.
It doesn’t make the problem go away.
It tends to make things worse.
Cheers
Col
C,
I was getting a bit of indigestion (or was it a sugar overload:) from reading his comment too. I guess it all looks Rosy through the Glasses. 🙂
Sometimes I wish I hadn’t taken mine off. 🙂
CD
Mike R.
Thanks for posting….please post more often.
Interesting information.
‘The renaissance going on in US manufacturing? You may be right but honestly, it rings too much like ‘Hope and Change’.
As for US energy, when was last nuclear plant built? The last coal plant (actually environment regulations are forcing them to close). When was the last significant hydro power dam built? We have shale oil but DC is doing its best to make them non-competitive. Here in the Pacific Northwest the logging industry and related energy plants have been crippled by government rules and regulations. Heck, the EPA is hell-bent on outlawing wood stoves! If Solar was practical it would not need subsidies. That leave windmills. Yea, windmills, they will save America.
As noted before, America is a transnation.
Diane D,
Mike R is correct but the manufacturing will return in the form of robotics and not man hours for the most part.
Greg
Greg This is not Coasttocoastam. LOL just kidding. With all the pressure on industry I highly doubt any new Ideas will surface. Techno will come to a screeching halt in dollar troubles. Not to mention gama rays or emp. With the hatred around the world a cyber bomb is likely.
Windmills! Now there was a great idea if there ever was one. The entire middle of the country is dotted with them, like a pox. Other than create an eyesore, what do they do? Nothing. If they were working, DC (District of Corruption) would be all over the news extolling their success, at saving the planet and weaning us off of oil and coal. But instead we get “crickets”. 3 yrs ago I worked for a company who installed a generator and 1000 gal diesel fuel tank for backup power. The customer using this generator installed those windmills that dot the landscape. Ironic.
Not really I have a friend recently left the army where he was an electronics person and he cannot find work in North Carolina where supposedly things are better than the national average
Wow. That was rough to get through. I was a business major but I heard recently that corporations, industry et al are foregoing us for english majors; I get that.
Mike not to be a critic. You seem to know a lot. you said.and power reliability is still 10 times to sometimes 100 times better than any other nations.
As one that has lived in electricity and plumbing. How can the China folk turn the grid off and on so easy? They shut down every night? Back on everyday. It is a puzzle to me.
1.4 billion live in peace every night. Try that in the .32 billion in the USA. Its hard to grasp.
Mike man, you need a good editor. I’m just sayin’.
Greg
Great interview, great guest!
I am very impressed with Craig.
This man has a wonderful blend of real world knowledge, integrity and good old fashioned common sense.
Just my 2 cents worth re the ongoing guessing game as to what the gold price could top out at:
Don’t dwell on the prospect of the price of gold rising.
Think instead in terms of the dollar losing purchasing power.
Think Weimar republic. If you needed a small truckload of marks to buy an ounce of gold the theoretical price might have been 1 zillion/oz but in reality it was simply a situation where the value of the currency had plummeted. [In 1923 the dollar was at 4.2 million marks].
When the $US collapses and it will, just as every fiat currency collapses, don’t think of the price of gold as $50,000 or $100,000 per ounce or $1 million for that matter. Think of gold retaining its historical purchasing power and your counterfeit currency losing value. This effect is why PMs should be viewed as insurance rather than as investment. This also explains why Jim Sinclair said on WD last week;
“This will be the rally you don’t sell”
Its a very simple concept, the price of gold won’t be going up much at all relative to many other tangible assets. It will simply be a situation where the currency experiences a massive loss in purchasing power.
In this scenario you will have an asset [gold or silver] that is liquid enough to allow you then to purchase other tangible assets, e.g. farms, forests, water resources, buildings, gold mines and other real assets when TSHTF. You won’t be getting out of gold at $1 zillion dollars an oz and getting back into the Sheist dollar or any other currency. You will be trading out into tangible assets at bargain prices because you have had an effective insurance against the crash of your currency. Real assets will be at bargain prices simply because of supply and demand. People without their PM’s insurance policies will not be in a position to take advantage of these bargains. They will have pocketfuls of Sheist dollars that will buy them nothing at all!
This is just my simple farmer’s perspective of how PM’s could play out in in the looming crises and in the real world of tangible assets versus paper.
Cheers
Col
Great guest!!! Its good to see all these type of guys all saying the same thing, but what i have not heard from any of them is what is the average guy supposed to do about their mortgage, car payments, credit card debt etc should this whole thing come down? I have some gold and silver, food and water etc, but what about a persons debt? Will it go away, do I stop making payments, if money becomes worthless how do I keep the lights on and the tax collector away? Please ask your guests these kinds of questions?
Thanks Greg
Thank you Chris.
Greg
Chris,
Jim Sinclair answered this question about DEBT and Gold in the previous interview on WD.
“Bankers don’t lose. ….debt gets re-adjusted to the number of grams of gold …the debt equalled…prior to the great inflation”. Gold performs a valuation function. That is why JS has said many times to get out of DEBT.
An example…. $100,000 debt now is the equivalent of approx. 83 ozs AU.
In JS hypothetical world of $50,000 Gold, the pre-existing debt /gold equivalent now looks something like 83 x $50,000 = $4.15MLN. That is the impact of a $50000 Gold world. The debt is a factor of Gold (value). Holding physical maintains the status quo. IN reality you are no better off…..but a heck of a lot better off…. than if you didn’t have any.
Ideally….NO Debt ….+….Gold in the hand.
You and every other American will be unable to pay for your debt which I’d guess 95% of Americans have. If you, your neighbor, your local banker, the sheriff, and every form of law enforcement owes the same debt… Who will come to collect? Food, water, firearms and ammunition. Come and take it.
Gold is a great store of value under rapid inflation, but please be mindful of the lessons of the past. In times of emergency, the government does two things. It confiscates all the gold, and it bans trading in gold, with harsh penalties. Same with foreign currency.
The economy as we know it has shifted and it’s as if the central bank don’t know it yet. Technology and the internet have completely turned old industries on their head. It’s seemingly good for the little guy, you don’t have to pay for music, movies and news. It can all be obtained for free. Although it’s a small slice of the overall economy, it is probably gone forever. That mean jobs gone forever and tax revenue no longer realized. Meanwhile the government gets bigger. Then you have the incredible leaps in productivity that computers and automation are ushering in (getting more work done with less people). We are seeing a continuing shift of more people becoming dependant on the government and less people that the government is dependent on. Not good for the long term relevance of the government. The new share economy is intriguing, but to me seems to be a step down (or backwards). It’s great people can make money renting out a room in their house for a day at a time, turn their driveway into a parking space, turn their car into a taxi service, young attractive girls (couples, whatever) can strip on cams for money, but it’s really just a degradation of the general situation, not an elevation of people’s living standards. It’s almost an act of desperation.
It’s also amazing to see America go to pot both literally and figuratively. Weed is grudgingly seem as a possible tax revenue and a sizeable segment of the population wants it freely available (ultimately in my opinion to ‘dull the pain’). We all use alcohol, sugar, caffeine, drugs to get by and dull the pain. The only people that don’t are probably eating properly and getting a good night’s sleep (good clean living that makes you feel so good you don’t need any of these substances). Perhaps the best thing is to get it out there as fast as practical and get those who want it smoked up. It will probably result in less violence. Get them all the pot they want, all the Cheetos, all the Pepsi and make sure Netflix is uninterrupted. That will cut down on the perceived hard times coming and the violence it can conjure.
Great! Great! interview. Craig explained such complex subjects so succinctly and tied it all together. Really informative.
Thanks-
Big Break in Markets Here as “Carry Trades” Implode; What You Need to Know …
Last week the Dow Industrials plunged almost 1,100 points before recovering somewhat. Then it dropped again amid a volatility explosion, before trying to launch a deeply oversold bounce.
Many traditional analysts and CNBC pundits are running around trying to grasp for explanations. They’re blaming everything from computer trading algorithms to investors who just don’t understand their worldview that everything is peachy.
Hogwash! This crisis is completely understandable. It’s the result of all the forces we’ve been discussing with you for months on end — weakening economic growth at home, massive turmoil in China and other emerging markets, breakdowns in multiple U.S. market sectors, and huge warning flags coming from the bond market.
But one factor we haven’t talked about YET — but need to share with you now — is the implosion of massive, global “carry trades.” In simple terms, a carry trade is when you borrow money from one cheap, low-rate source of funds and invest that money in a more expensive, higher-rate asset. Your profit is the difference in what your funds cost to borrow and what you earn from your investment.
The $5.3 trillion currency market is famous for this. Investors worldwide are constantly borrowing in the cheapest currencies they can find, and investing those funds in higher-yielding ones. They use massive amounts of leverage to increase their returns. And they count on making money from both moves in underlying currencies, and the increasing value of the assets they buy with their borrowed money.
But those trades are now, to put it in layman’s terms, “blowing up!”
The non-stop devaluation in carry trade currencies like the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and euro is starting to reverse. That’s causing losses on the borrowing end of the carry trade. Plus, the currencies, stocks, and bonds they invested in — oftentimes higher-yielding emerging market assets — are all plunging. That’s causing losses on the investing leg of the carry trade.
In other words, they’re losing money coming and going. If you could see the long-term chart from a Bloomberg story earlier this week. It shows the performance of a Deutsche Bank index that tracks carry trade profitability …
You’d see that imploding carry trades helped cause the market meltdown in 2007-08 with the collapse o Lehman and see that this carry trade index is now rapidly falling, dropping back toward the levels we hit during the depths of that meltdown and now with the removal of the Swiss Euro Cap and continuing with the devaluing of the Chinese Yuan.
That is yet another reason — as if we needed one — that stocks could be living on borrowed time. After all, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was trading for around 10,000 the last time this index was trading at these levels.
Bottom line: If you haven’t already cut your stock exposure, raised cash, grabbed gains and cut losers, please don’t wait much longer.
Until that Time,
Lighten Up, Smell the Rose’s!
P.S. Carry trades are “over.”_Commonwealth bank of Australia!
Liarson
I couldn’t agree more!
Cheers
Col
Greg,
What an interview ! Poof !….I would rate this one probably the best interview I`ve watched ever since I started following you a couple of years ago.
Thanks Greg & Craig.
God`s in charge & Bless you too
Varun
Thank you Varun.
Greg
Amen, great interview. Thank you Greg.
Most Watchdogs are probably drawn here for financial/asset protection. I am too. I’m happy to see so many also working on ‘life protection’ (food water, barter etc.) . As goes our financial system, so goes civility.
A question on PMs as insurance: Other than necessities such as food, water, ammo, etc. and keeping some cash at home, what % should one be in precious metals with any remaining funds? 100%? Less? I understand one shouldn’t put all eggs in one basket, I heard experts from previous years say have physical metals about 15-20%. But are we living in something so different now from years’ past that it is safe to say now to go all in? Anyone is welcome to comment and would be appreciated.
I’m in the camp that if one is aware and has conciction then I would put my money in one educated, comviction basket and watch that basket closely. It’s easier and provides one the opp. to do well. Diversifcation is lazy and an assured loser strategy. Jmo.
Sorry for the errors. I have a new device and not used to having to proof
Orchestrated events or a calamity of errors?
I say both! The big money boys thought that if they exported enough of our jobs to China it would spark a middle class revolution. Removing/ousting the Communist govt. Well the verdict came in at Tienanmen Square!
But they refused to believe it.
So this leaves us with a calamity of errors! All the red lights are flashing now that it is open knowledge China is selling Us Ts. So if other countries panic and start selling Us Ts also. Every one knows the Fed will have to eat those Ts. This is where all private and state/federal retirement/pension funds are required to have at least 30% in Us Ts. They will pitch it like buying war bonds during WWII. It is said that the Fed has about four trillion now of Us Ts. I very much doubt that they can stuff any more into that balance sheet.
This is the last piggy bank to raid our savings! For the “Bail In” crowd saying this would happen ,the minute the banks close the doors/ATM s out of money, to say that things would get sporty is a under statement .If China continues to dump Us Ts QE4 is a dead cinch lock. As they say follow the money!
The Last Can They Kick.
Monday 31st August 2015
Dear Greg
Great Interview
Listening to your interview this morning with Craig Hemke I have come to realisethat if you listen to all your interviewed experts and their respective views on the world situation there has to be a thread that brings one to a conclusion.
My own take-away has been triggered by the words that Craig mentioned regarding Saudi –Arabia and Iran.
Both countries are oil export driven economies and their future is dependent upon oil being at a much higher price. Together with their diverging religious beliefs and the out of control rampage by ISIL is the perfect reason for a ‘hot war’ in the Middle-East.
For my money this is the ‘Black Swan’ that will spook the financial markets and bring about the collapse in the bond market.
This will be the big domino that sets off the collapse and it will be unstoppable.
Regards
Michael Harvey
Resident in Ireland
Thank you Michael for adding your perspective.
Greg
Another great guest Greg, thanks..
It’s good to hear someone theorising that the broken markets are connected to each other by computer, and HFTs. I realise that this may sound a bit wacky, but I suggest that the purpose of all these ‘tremors’ is to feed real data (including ALL responses, social media chat, posts, media and exchange hacks, some disasters, false flag shootings etc) into the all singing dancing and learning and self-aware AI Jade2 system that is being beta tested right now. The manipulation could then theoretically go on for a very long time. Good info here:
Global Neural Net https://vimeo.com/135069485
Technocracy Rising http://www.technocracyrising.com/
Many commentators are spelling out our current predicament very well, like US Watchdog and Guests, but no-one is able to even start modeling what a collapse will actually be like. If there is chaos on the streets, and a complete breakdown of markets and society, how…how does a civilisation possibly recover from that, especially in an environmental catastrophe resulting from nuclear power plants loosing cooling (ie. grid down or the employees that keep them from exploding cant get to work), in the middle of the climate chaos that your guest Dane Wiggington is predicting? Dont want to be a doomer because I’m a natural optimist, but what good will gold or silver be if it’s not possible to find or make a market? When only staying alive matters, and takes all our energy and attention? Peace, and good luck to all!
Fascinating food for thought in your post OMMMMn. 🙂
Thank you for the links too! it is too late tonight to watch them, but I will surely remember to get back to them when I can.
tx. again.
CD
I echo the comments of others. Another great interview and a guest that I hope can return soon.
What I like about Craig is not just his ‘folksy’ style but his admission that in the end he’s not smarter than the rest of us and is unwilling to make predictions and timelines. He knows where this is all going but doesn’t know when….and neither do the rest of us. He won’t proffer what he thinks gold will go to because as he says nobody knows for sure how much we have, ect.
He won’t even say that he thinks the collapse is definitely happening in September as TPTB have up to now been able to find a way to prolong it. The point will come when they no longer can. I am ready for major disruptions in the next 30 days but if not then we have more time to prepare and that is how you have to look at it.
He also makes great points and hammers home as you do that gold/silver is not for trading…now. It’s for accumulating as an insurance policy. You don’t buy gold/silver thinking your going to make money. Gold and silver ARE money and are to preserve your purchasing power.
I could care less what the price fluctuations are in dollars of either metal. I own the same amount of ounces regardless of what they are priced in dollars. He understands that, you understand that but many still don’t get that salient point. Once again tremendous guest and look forward to a return booking at some point.
Greg,
Excellent guest and interview. I would suggest to my fellow listeners to listen to the interview a couple of times. I always do and invariably get more out of it on the second hearing. Interesting point there that WE are paying for China’s military budget. Ouch!
I would like to reassure Mr. Lemke regarding his concerns about the Russians with regard to our prescence in the Ukraine. The truth is the Ukraine needs us for national stability and to provide an atmosphere where we can assure that democracy will prevail. Dont be too concerned about Mr. Putin either. We could dispatch him like a dog if push comes to shove. We have a vast stockpile of munitions built just in case the Ruskies decide to do anything truly provocative. At the end of the day, they will want to be with us cause they sure as hell dont want to be against us. Once they force us to regard them as hostiles they will have sealed their own fate and that wouldnt be good for them.
Airman,
Are you for real????? How long have you been in????? You have not got a clue what Amerika did to destabilize Ukraine…what was our cost to start this???? 5 Million or was it 5 Billion??? We started this mess and overthrew an elected government. We keep sticking our nose into every body’s business. You don’t have a clue about Putin. I don’t think your thinking about telling us we can dispatch him like a dog. You have not been living in the real world. We have spread our troops around the world….to fight all these damn wars we didn’t need to. Better watch our back Russia has not been conquered by Napoléon or Hitler….did you study History 101? They have 12 time zones. They could very well invade us from the north, straight down the middle of the country. They are a nuclear power…enough said.
I had the same initial reaction SC but upon further reflection I wonder if this is a set up post.
It would be interesting to get his take on ISIS/ISIL. Who really is behind their ammo and Hum-vies?
Please, tell us what you think about that ART.
I would think it makes our true soldiers physically ill to think/speculate that the ammo that is blowing their limbs off may have originated from places closer to home then anyone would like to believe.
In cynicism we trust,
CD
x2 what Southern Girl says
I think this guy is a trolly-polly-0. Love the way he/she/it wraps him/her/shim in the mantle of military service.
Kudos to Mr. Hunter. Greg, you must be seen as a threat if someone is sending out the troll army against you. Keep up the faith and beware of trolls bearing gifts
George T.
USAF Airman Rich Treadway, last Monday your answer was to bomb Syria. 23 million people. Boom! Last Friday you bombed Iran. 77 million people. Take that you Muslims! Today, we are nuking Russia. 143 million people. Ah, that felt good. 243 million hostiles in one week. At first I thought you were a troll, but with stats like that I believe you really are in charge of American foreign policy.
The Washington Post had ‘Deep Throat’. We Watchdogs have ‘Scorched Earth Airman Treadway’.
Diane D.
The airman works for the elite…you know depopulation and all. This must really be the place to be if the elite are sending their people to this site. Boy, Greg you should have a hard time getting your head through the door after this. Ha! Ha!
SG,
If this is true it is a little scary for me. “Airman” could be a real person though, I don’t know.
Greg
I say the “Airman” aka “patient man” is a disillusioned, frustrated, under-employed college grad who has not found a productive purpose for his abilities and potential. He’s just trying to get people worked up, I think he is funny.
Airman is hilarious if he actually believes that Putin is worried about us or that we are capable of “dispatching”him.
Thank you Greg for continuing to get a variety of high quality guests on! It is wonderful to hear from so many knowledgable people and get their takes on what is happening and how this situation might play out.
Perhaps we can get out of gold at $100,000 an ounce and pay off our fixed rate mortgage, but they probably won’t allow that to happen?
I think TPTB in certain states are aware of what’s coming as certain states have no budgets. Not trying to be tin foil here but state buget impasses normally have ongoing talks and meetings to come to a compromise. Here in Penna they are not even talking. Budget deadline passed JUNE 30th. Illinois won’t payout out lottery winnings over 25K. It’s a IOU. Current administration implementing sanctions on China more that likely after Chinas president visits Sept 3rd.
Loved his delivery, your ( always) respectful manner of allowing guests to elaborate. Bonus: I finally understand why currency wars ( esp. pertaining to the reserve currency) can lead to real wars:( It’s both to conceal the truth and desperation to retain the hegemony.
Thanks from London
You will make money with gold during the Deflation phase of the coming downward class migration by buying assets that deflate to the mean after the “Downward Class Migration” (Jack Spirako on Youtube). i.e. I can buy your 500k house for 100k today in gold equivalent. Which might translate to 50k in old dollars now 10k in new dollars i.e. 500k in gold then 100k in gold then exchanged to 10k new dollars now via selling your gold. That’s it! That’s all you get as an opportunity in “getting rich in gold.” Now, do you have the ability to generate 100K in gold?!? If not listen to the http://www.thesurvivalpodcast.com cause you can’t always get what you want but sometimes you can get what you need.
Thanks Matilda, Do you have a reference for Larry Summers’ comment?? Thanks!
Just trolling the web, i’m sure if you google it you could find it as I did, look under Doug Casey.
excellent podcast
US Treasuries are considered an asset by those that hold them. Countries that owe too much and must shore up their reserves, do so by selling other countries’ debt which they hold as an asset. Fiat currencies are also considered assets for reserves and they too represent a promise to pay. The only true monetary asset that central banks hold that is also “not simultaneously an obligation of another party” (James Turk’s words) is gold.
https://screen.yahoo.com/snl-iconic-skits/celebrity-jeopardy-stewart-reynolds-connery-000000332.html
Yes, I know where (T.F) metals comes from… You know, I respect that. Hell, I could not get by a day at work without some fun. I really liked reading your posts at “Zero Hedge”
Anyhow, take care, Kevin WTF Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
WTF,
Thanks I needed a laugh on Monday.
WTF,
Somehow, when I read your name, I don’t see Whiskey Tango Foxtrot. 🙂
Thanks for the skit, it was funny.
CD
WTF,
Some one from this site had this video on maybe last week. Thought you might want a good laugh. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3V9QHBgrPNY
Great interview! Clear sound, clear video, clear thinking and clearly stated information, with the appropriate blend of humility and realism as a bonus! Putting these complex ideas into such simple and straightforward terms make them so much more accessible. Thank you both!
SG, maybe I should post more. I have donated to Greg 2 or 3 times, but now I’m on strike with the company I work for and money is kind of tight. If, I was not happily married, to a wonderful girl I might ask you out and you might be fun, oh, well.
You have to admit, he has a great site. Greg, keep up the good work.
Kevin, just west of Longview, Wa. 98632 KA7LRC 6.520 monitoring
WTF,
Sorry you are on strike now. I remember when I was teaching we went out for 11 days. Well we had to make up all those days with the kids. I saw them 6 days a week for months. We all hated each other.
I am sure you are married to the best woman for you. Thanks for the date bit…made me laugh. Maybe I can donate for you and me.
Greg, your guest told me new thought, that is the vast majority of trading (75%) is done by corporations pension funds, etc., and or the elites computers on various algorithms. If this is so, and I’m not doubting it, then the MSM predictions that the system will never experience a collapse like 1929 or even 1987 for that matter may be correct. 25% probably cannot destroy the manipulation power of 75% who buy & sell upon an algorithmic set of conditions. Wow, no wonder the FED & the financial media is so arrogant. Still, I believe there may be flies in the ointment under their computer trading set agendas. I’m not smart enough to know what conditions, if any, are not programmed into their systems that could spell disaster, but you can bet there must be because the possible scenarios may be endless and even a computer algorithms set of rules by its very nature could not have programmed every possible set of conditions; remembering that a program is only as good as those who programmed it. Human nature being what it is, they must have missed something somewhere as nothing is perfect. The question in my mind is: When does a set of events not thought of in the programming line up and fail the traders? I can’t answer that, they can’t answer that, no one can answer that, but you can bet given enough time its a certainly that it will happen; and, the elites arrogance will only perpetuate it to fruition not keep it under bay. In the meantime, all the basic conditions are programmed such as interest rates hikes, China selling treasuries, etc. Therefore, we move forward on their agenda until events not thought of line and appear out of nowhere.
Art,
The manipulation adds to the systems fragility. It does not strengthen it. Keep that in mind. Peace Brother.
Greg
Art, As you stated, computer code consists of “conditional statements” (IF-THEN-ELSE i.e. COBOL, yes, I’m that old).
When a condition arises for which no code has been provided, the program “ABORTS”; it stops running with the unspoken question, “What in the hell do I do with this mess?”
Things blow up, files are corrupted, programmers are called in the middle of the night, and the “bug” is found and fixed (or better input edits are implemented to keep the garbage data out).
Then files are restored, working storage is initialized and the program restarted. Simply a hiccup.
When “this system” ABORTS, it will stop running, things will blow up, files will be corrupted (lost, destroyed); but there will be no programmers who can fix it. Assuming they even want to fix it.
This system will not restart. They will have to write an entirely new program….maybe in Chinese Yuan.
I dont get the shtick about gold and silver or PMS in general, if there is a downturn they are only good to those that survive it alive, hence check history. Food and guns with ammo rule a serious downturn just look at ukraine today.
What if you have six months of food or whatever deemed appropriate, weapons, plenty of ammo, solar panels, etc plus no mortgage and over a hundred thousand represented as savings? Are you going to purchase 90k worth of food and ammo?
The question becomes about wealth preservation after all else is taken care of for some..and some point determined by their own threshold.
You can fool Mother Nature but in the end she always returns to take back what she has given.
You can fill a balloon with hot air and she will stay inflated for a while.
You can fill a balloon with helium and it will float higher and longer but eventually it will come back down.
Everything is inflated but given time everything will come back down to realistic valuations or less.
Look out below.
Maybe gold can become the new money? Valaurum has a 1/10 of a gram slip of gold that is the size and thickness of the dollar bill. Think about interviewing Adam Trexler of valaurum .There is a chance that you can help save part of the world?
Greg, one of these days I am going to take my plane, pick you and the turd up. We will go to Costa Rica and hang out with the Jackass for a weekend. That would be alot of fun.
Greg:
You were right, Craig Hemke did not disappoint. He was articulate and concise. And “a hall of mirrors” to say the least. Unfortunately, when they break (sooner than later), we the people are going to get a lot more than just seven years of bad luck! Fear Not!
Great host and guest. Here is my latest interesting equation whose answer can not be true: Assume global warming is true. Assume global warming caused by man’s burning of fossil fuels and the manufacturing of consumable products. Assume since all money is created out of thin air and more money is owed as debt than what has ever been created. Assume increase of population into 1st world nations will only increase man’s global warming effort and increase the debt. QUESTIONS: Are American politicians and the people of the USA sane when saying America needs immigration when we have 100 million on entitlements? Is the real reason for the desired increase of the US population for enslaving them into debt, even though they will create even more global warming? Is this the only way Wall Street will get any kind of increase in the GDP, by creating trillions more in new debt and further putting the planet into global warming danger…. albeit increasing the US stock exchange and keeping the dollar alive longer. The answer seems to be increase the number of people, get them hooked on new debt, in order to keep the stores and wall street running.
One thing that is interesting, or depressing, is that Treasury has taken in record tax receipts this year yet they are still predicting a $450 billion deficit. That doesn’t give you a nice warm feeling.
Wow, another metals guy saying–the same thing! I respect Turd, and have even been a TFM subscriber. He at least knows what he doesn’t know. For some semblance of balance, I would like to listen to an interview with someone who manages serious money, and successfully. For anyone sharing this point of view, I highly recommend Real Vision Television (www.realvisiontv.com). This site, is moderated by former global macro fund manager, Raoul Pal and Grant Williams, the author of the newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm. Another great site for balance, is Jim Puplava’s, http://www.financialsense.com. The interesting and curious thing, is that none of the money managers interviewed on these sites, are seeing the collapse of the dollar or the end of the world. That’s not to say they don’t see problems, but they certainly have a different perspective. I’ve been in the market for enough years to know, when everyone is on one the of the trade–unless you’re front running the FED–the market will not reward you.
An excellent guest, Greg,
I always read Craig’s commentaries and listen to his interviews even as I have disagreed with him on occasion. Not this time, however. Just a comment about some statements: Jim Sinclair said, ” MAY be the rally that is not to be sold”. And while Craig is correct in his commentary about no real way to tell the dollar value of gold, what Jim Sinclair is also saying with his $50,000.00 per ounce projection, is that the USD will not become worthless with a gold price of X millions/billions per ounce. Hyperinflation, yes, of course but not a complete collapse – and I really think this concept should be a part of the discussion. I hope you read this as I know you are very worried about how bad the coming debacle can be to live through. That is not to say that the dollar couldn’t collapse totally, but I think a total anarchy is unlikely. Keep up the good work, your efforts are immensely appreciated.
With thanks,
G.
Greg has never said it’s the end of the world, Greg has only said everything is on sale, soon the sale will be ending, act accordingly! Buy that accordion you’ve always wanted to buy, now before it’s to late!
If anyone can link me up. CA Fittz last night on coasttocoastam. She acted like all was fine no need for alarm.
Found it. You decide, https://youtu.be/f_E-xZ-CPDk
Global Manufacturing, Exports Tanking?
What’s causing the renewed turmoil? A simple fact: Numbers don’t lie. And today, they showed that manufacturing and exports are tanking worldwide.
In China, a key “official” index of manufacturing activity sank to 49.7 in August from 50 in July. That was the weakest in three years. A separate private report on production also remained stuck near its lowest in more than six years.
In South Korea, exports plunged at a massive 14.7% rate in August. That was far worse than the mid-single-digit decline that was expected, and the biggest plunge since the 2009 Great Recession.
Manufacturing activity in Chinese trading partners like Malaysia, Vietnam, and Japan is also falling. Indonesia showed its 11th straight contraction last month.
Manufacturing in China and elsewhere in Asia is struggling.
Many on Wall Street had been counting on the U.S. to hang in there, even as many foreign markets and economies deteriorate. But today’s Institute for Supply Management report dashed those hopes. The U.S. index sank to 51.1 in August from 52.7 in July. Not only did that miss economist forecasts, but it was also the worst reading since May 2013. That’s 27 long months ago.
Seeing a trend here? The numbers show the global economy is losing momentum, led by sharp slowdowns in emerging markets. Heck, even our neighbor to the north, Canada, just slipped into recession after its economy shrank for the second quarter in a row.
Now here’s where things get interesting. I noticed several days ago and noted here that the junk bond market was trading at levels that suggested the Dow Jones Industrial Average could trade down to around 13,000. A separate carry trade index I noted is trading at a level last seen when the Dow went for about 10,000.
The last time the Chinese manufacturing index was at these levels, the Dow went for the mid-12,000s. And the last time our ISM index was at these levels, the Dow was around 14,800.
Again, I’ll ask: Are we seeing a trend here? We’ve seen the U.S. stock market start to crack, with wild declines and equally powerful short-term bounces. But we’re still trading at far higher levels than several indicators suggest we “should” trade at.
“Raise cash, grab profits, time is short.”
Of course one or two indicator’s don’t guarantee stocks will do anything. Other influences can drive equities on any given day, week, or month. But the sum total of the indicators I watch suggest this is the time to “raise shields,” so to speak, and gird for a battle with an increasingly volatile market. That means raise cash, grab profits, sell losers, and buy hedges like inverse ETFs and put options on big rallies when they’re cheap and be able to barter something in case we go down the drain!
Are you doing that yet? If not, why? What do you think about the Dow’s fair value – is it 14,800? 13,000? 10,000? Or have stocks already declined enough to reflect the threats I just highlighted? That’s the 64,ooo fiat dollar question!
scuttlebutt
Frebon said the Fed needs to take action, rather than keep sitting on its hands. The comments: “The Fed raising rates is a good thing not a bad one. The Fed’s mandate has nothing to do with the market, only employment and inflation. They have failed on both with their current policies, as the published unemployment rate is a farce.
“They need to re-load their bullets if they will ever be able to help in the event of another recession. A Fed rate of 0.75% by year’s end should be their target, and 1.5% by June. Then they should re-assess the situation.”
J.P.F. also said cheap money is causing more problems, rather than helping: “Haven’t we had enough of easy money, zero-interest rate policy? What’s the point of having a so-called ‘free market’ if marginal bets are not free to fail, as well as succeed in the market? As a saver, and longer-term investor, this past 10 years has certainly been a nightmare!”
But Billy said raising rates is only going to make a bad situation even worse: “You almost get the feeling they are trying to help this deflationary storm grow stronger by the day (hidden agenda?). Look, the bottom line is we now have a perfect storm forming of growing deflation, massive toxic debt, crashing commodities, particularly oil/gas, a crashing Chinese economy and stock market, major technical and cyclical warning signs, and major geo-political problems ALL occurring simultaneously!”
As far as the impact of a hike or no hike, Chuck B. offered this take: “Everybody is as uncertain about the market direction as I am. The Fed seems to be inclined to push rates up a touch, anyway, while hoping that won’t cause a panic.
“I’m watching the charts, though, and if they seem to be turning out right, I’m holding back a few bucks to feed in when his big correction seems to be ending. And it is a correction – and overdue, at that, which may make it pretty scary. Perhaps we need a scare.”
My view on the Fed is that policymakers clearly want to hike. They clearly should have already started hiking months ago, an opinion I laid out back then, and many others share.
But they have also shown that they’re slaves to the market. They’re scared of their own shadow, and basing policies that take several months to impact the economy off of a couple days’ trading in stocks and bonds. It’s no way to run an economy, but it’s how the Fed is doing things these days.
As for being uncertain about markets, I (respectfully) disagree. Greg has been ramping up his warnings all summer here on USAWatchdog. Literally DAYS before the Dow plunged almost 1,100 points at the open, we were warned that “The bond market is screaming that stocks are toast.” A few weeks ago, we were warned here the central planners had lost control and that the “autopilot” market was over.
By all means, don’t miss the signals the various markets are sending out. Conditions are getting more volatile, and more treacherous here. I believe protective action is warranted, and why I’m increasingly concerned the entire six-and-a-half-year bull market may be over.
Other Developments
Who doesn’t like a parade? Apparently, the Chinese do, because they’re about to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the conclusion of World War II with a massive display of military might.
The interesting thing now is that China is launching this celebration of its own magnificence at the same time its stock market, currency, and economy are slumping badly. So it’s doing all it can to artificially prop things up until the last tank rolls down the street – including new steps that make it more expensive for banks to bet against the Chinese yuan. But the country can’t fight the fundamentals forever and we certainly don’t need to give them a reason militarily!
Are central bankers out of bullets? That’s an argument we’ve been making for several years now, and the mainstream media is jumping on the bandwagon. Here’s just one example from the Financial Times, where the writer concludes:
“Several signs suggest loose monetary policy is increasingly proving ineffective, and central banks are failing to generate enough cyclical upswing to win against the structural forces constraining growth and inflation. Monetary stimulus alone cannot fix debt overhangs, low productivity, persistent unemployment, stagnant demographics and a lack of reforms and fiscal stimulus.”
Sounds about right to me – and that’s why we here at the WATCHdog have been arguing that you need to take your financial future into your own hands, rather than count on Washington (or Frankfurt, or Tokyo, or …) to bail markets out anymore making the rich richer and everybody else so much poorer!
A major slowdown in China and elsewhere is steamrolling out of Asia. Central bankers are running out of bullets. Batten down the hatches, there coming out at us with hatchets and please don’t forget the matches!
Until That Time
If there is a link to this story Liarson please post the link and don’t cut and past the entire story. It’s a space issue. Thank you for your involvement though and please come back.
Greg
Radical Muslims want “peace”.
Zionist goyim enslavers want “peace”.
Lenin and Stalin wanted “peace”.
Even the emperor in Star Wars wanted “peace”.
No thanks, I’d rather just stick with what we have.
Go away NWO troll.
It is akin to when someone set off a bomb in the boarding house… the roomers were flying.
God Has Chosen An Exact Date for the Dollar Collapse …
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12 Sep 2014 … After the collapse of the buildings during the 9/11 attacks, a shock wave was … In 2008, the final day of Shmita was September 29, 2008.
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IMF Magic Number 7, The Shemitah & September Collapse — Bix Weir
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgtAoT8dWxg Proxy Highlight
23 Apr 2015 … Stay tuned until the very end for a special surprise from Bix! JP Morgan is acquiring physical silver in staggering amounts. According to Ted …
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17 Jul 2015 … In the article below, Marshall Swing refutes best-selling author Jonathan Cahn’s calculations for a coming Global Financial Collapse …
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30 Apr 2015 … Bix Weir joined the SGTReport for a MUST LISTEN interview discussing JPM, silver, Christine Lagarde’s cryptic speech on the Magic Number 7 …
The Shemitah: The Biblical Pattern Which Indicates That A … – Infowars
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by Michael Snyder | Economic Collapse | January 27, 2015 …. The Shemitah year that we are in now does end on September 13th, 2015 – and that falls on a …
IMF Magic Number 7, The Shemitah & September Collapse — Bix …
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28 Apr 2015 … JP Morgan is acquiring physical silver in staggering amounts. According to Ted Butler’s research, JPM is still short on the Comex (to drive paper …
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25 Feb 2015 … What that tells me, the phenomenon of the Shemitah is all the more … The greatest crash in history, September 29, 2008, they ring the bell, and …
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More signs in sky point to coming collapse
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15 Mar 2015 … The second half of the Shemitah and its ultimate climax on Sept. 13, which is Elul 29, the infamous “wipe-out day” on the Hebrew calendar,
Jeff Berwick is on next and talks about the financial perspective of the coming Shemitah and his new video about it.
Greg
Good interview with Hemke. You gotta like Hemke’s style passing out the same old message of buy buy buy precious metals. What still troubles me and that no one seems to able to give a definitive answer to is if the coming economic infarction will move to a deflationary or inflationary settling point after the initial break. Steve Keen’s modeling shows everything moving towards zero, while others suggest a deflationary cycle at first then moving to a hyper inflationary period? If we know that debt from financial parasitism is choking the productive economy then why can’t the brainiacs figure out which why the cookie will crumble. Do they know that the banksters have a game plan that they are afraid to get wrong ?
How safe are the insurance companies and their policies.