Dot-Com Style Crash Coming-Rick Ackerman
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Financial analyst and newsletter writer Rick Ackerman is no stranger to contrarian calls. At the beginning of 2014, he said forget about rising interest rates because they were going down. They did. Now, Ackerman predicts rates will go lower and will stay low for a long time. Ackerman explains, “My perspective is that of a deflationist, and it’s been easy for me to see. Even though we have inflation in certain things . . . the much bigger picture is deflationary. It is that huge $1 quadrillion edifice the central banks are fighting to keep from imploding. So, I am a deflationist and I see rates coming down. My (2015) projection for the 30-year Treasury is 1.74%.”
Ackerman goes on to say, “There is a kicker there for U.S. debt paper in particular, and that is if everything should start to unravel globally, the USA would be perceived as the last man standing. I think you would have that flight to quality, and I am going to put quality in quotes, but we definitely have that safe haven status that would make Treasuries a buy even if everything goes awry.”
On the effect of all the Fed money printing since the 2008 financial meltdown, Ackerman points out, “We certainly have pumped up asset prices, but it hasn’t really done much for the real economy. You understand what happened in 2007 and 2008, and we are actually going back to the dot-com craze. We are more pumped up right now than in dot-com times in terms of valuations. So, you know there is a collapse out there somewhere. Whatever pumping they are going to do is not going to work. It’s not as though dollars get shoveled out of airplanes. They only work in the financial sphere. . . Let me say also, when you talk about priming the pumps, that does nothing to meet real bills which are deflationary, including every pension that is offered by U.S. companies and the U.S. government. There we are talking about real dollars, and we are not talking about real dollars when we are talking about monetization.” Ackerman goes on to say that state and local governments cannot print money. Thus, Ackerman contends, “They aggregate to numbers we can’t pay our way out of. . . . Those are essentially hugely deflationary forces in the pipeline.”
On gold, Ackerman predicts, “I have given an over/under number for my projections for 2015. I am leaning a little bit toward an $810 target on COMEX, meaning it’s going to come down a few hundred points. That’s probably the worst I could see, but if something I cannot imagine right now that would send gold much higher, my target would be in the $1,700’s with an outside shot at $2,300 per ounce.”
On the possibility of a repeat of the financial implosion of 2008, Ackerman says, “I think the collapse in energy prices is probably the most logical catalyst for a real crisis, and it could feed into other things. We are definitely in a house of cards situation, and I haven’t seen anything as obvious or logical as the energy price collapse as far as what might produce that black swan. . . . Of course, the higher the prices go, the higher the averages go and the more money it takes to sustain it. So, it is not a perpetual motion machine.”
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with professional trader Rick Ackerman of RickAckerman.com.
(There is much more in the video interview.)
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Greg Hunter
Greg is the producer and creator of USAWatchdog.com. The site’s slogan is “analyzing the news to give you a clear picture of what’s really going on.” The site will keep an eye on the government, your financial interests and cut through the media spin. USAWatchdog.com is neither Democrat nor Republican, Liberal or Conservative. Before creating and producing the site, Greg spent nearly 9 years as a network and investigative correspondent. He worked for ABC News and Good Morning America for nearly 6 years. Most recently, Greg worked for CNN for shows such as Paula Zahn Now, American Morning and various CNN business shows.
” At the beginning of 2014, he said forget about rising interest rates because they were going down. They did. Now, Ackerman predicts rates will go lower and will stay low”…………… The ONLY people predicting higher rates were the (lying)Fed and their MSM cohorts. Tell me something we don’t know………… Yes lots of debt out there. Take the government debt. How will that be paid without printing ? Currency debasement has been the avenue for ALL fiat run countries. Always……… Always leading to inflation………. Ackerman’s argument is always for deflation. There is no historic precedence for it. Currency debasement is an inflationary phenomenon………… Unless he can tell me how the debt will be paid otherwise………
Hi
About US$ and its supply, your guest said “it is good for the world if the countries can pay for resources with currency which have infinite supply”. Well I disagree, because paying for limited resources with infinite paper has at least 2 consequences:
1) The buyer with the printing press get richer (in these times the USA) and the seller gets poorer in real therms. Simple reason, because the US$ reserves will worth less and less.
2) The world is finite, so there is not enough asset at these prices for the printed US$.
So, I personally think there will be inflation or hyperinflation in necessities (and PM’s because of shortage) and deflation in everything else in US$, € and Yen therm and a big reset afterwards. Or a big reset first and inflation or hyperinflation and deflation afterwards.
My 2 cents.
Oracle 911
Jeff, I suspect that the answer to your comment that “Currency debasement has been the avenue for ALL fiat run countries. Always……… Always leading to inflation” is that while this has been true and is generally true, there are limits to how far this can be pressed.
We are already reaching that limit, and the powers that be know that to press further will destroy the worlds financial system, which is based only upon trust.
your right Jeff
Exactly right, Jeff L.
I like the way you analyze things.
I know very little about economics. ..I’m a horse race handicapper from So.Cal.
I’m trying to learn about what’s happening in our world…..it’s fascinating, I love reading Greg’s blog. I read everyone’s comments like I read the Daily Racing Form.
Happy new year to y’all.
He is careful to delineate between the “financial” world and the “real” world. In the financial realm, inaccessible to the most of us, the FED/QE dollar holds forth and produces leverage and inflated valuations for those on the inside. But for us, the so-called Main Streeters, it is strictly a deflationary game, and with the coming defaults, a likely crushing one. What’s different about this time, as opposed to so many other crises in the past is this compartmentalization between the “financial” arena and the “real” arena. This part is unprecedented, and the more I see of it, the more I am convinced it has been intentionally so constructed for the everyman to take the fall with no consequence to the architects of this rigged system. If I am correct in this conclusion, the French Revolution will look like a picnic, when the game is up. Happy New Year to all. PM
I am with you Jeff. Rick Ackerman sees all the signs, but is making the wrong call. Buy US Treasuries??? Is he kidding? Only the Fed buys US Treasuries and they now own something like $ 2.5 trillion of them. Interest rates moving lower? Do you think? But you can’t go much lower than zero which is what the banks are getting for funds to play in the markets they have rigged. You can also thank the Fed for paying interest on the excess reserves the Fed holds for them since 2008. The Fed holds some $2.5 trillion now in commercial banks excess reserves. Some might see the excess reserves as a good thing, except the banks don’t have any intent in lending money to corporations when they can make excessive profits in market rigging and get IOER payouts on their cash from the Fed. All that money the Fed created during QE did nothing for the economy. And don’t forget the mortgage-backed securities the Fed took off of the banks balance sheets in turn for more cash payouts. So now the Fed has an insolvent balance sheet as well as the US government. Jeff, I believe you are also correct about the fiat currency deflation before hyperinflation begins. The German Weimar Republic experienced deflation in Sept. 1920. The German government desperately tried printing money to re-inflate the economy However, hyperflation started to set in by Sept. 1922 when people lost confidence and billions of marks that people had been hoarding came out into the marketplace. Remember: brief deflation followed by hyperinflation is the historical pattern when fiat currencies die. Cheers.
Jeff L, Oracle 911 PFI, Orion
I agree with you. But I will go a few steps further and please forgive me if I am a bit agricultural. But then again I am……. well….. agricultural.
IMHO Ackerman’s comments had more holes than the proverbial second hand dart board. I listened to this interview three times and each time I listened my head spun more. Coming out of my office I must have looked like some kind of stunned mullet.
But of course this is part of what we all love about Greg and WD. Every now and then he will throw in a wild card contrarian that keeps us on our toes and demand that we use our grey matter.
In the interests of trying to keep my post short today I will list just a few of what I regard as absolute gob smackers;
#1 “Paying for resources with currency that has infinite supply being a good thing”.
Unbelievable in itself! But add to this scenario the fact that the currency is created by a central bank that is owned by a private cabal. This crazy institution answers to no one and is not subject to any oversight or audit.
#2 “If everything unwinds globally the US $ will have safe haven status and that the US will be perceived to be the last man standing.”
Well that may have been the case in the 2008 crises but I really think that a lot of the world has learn’t a little bit since then. The BRICS are sick and tired of waiting for this hegemonic bully to get its financial and diplomatic act together. This time the BRICS have the trump cards. They will play out their hand and win each trick one by one.
#3 “Buy US Treasuries”!!!!
I’d love to hear PCR’s view on this strategy.
From what I read real inflation for the main street is in the 7-9% bracket. The real return on this suggested investment then is hugely negative!
#4 Gold could go down to $800.
So Ackerman thinks then under the current supply and demand equations that it could still slide dramatically. What is this guy on?
#5 Complete rubbish as to the US not losing reserve currency status.
Its already lost a heap of this status and this trend is in free fall.
#6 His deflationary scenario sounds totally bazaar to me so I won’t even go there. Plenty of other commentors that are far brighter than me will no doubt cover this one.
Lastly since predictions are the order of the day at this time of year, I will make one myself;
This current ridiculous charade that we know as the financial ‘markets’ of the world will persist and further deteriorate into chaos until such time as one thing happens;
THE FED IS COMPLETELY DISBANDED AND REPLACED BY A NEW MODEL THAT IS NOT OWNED AND ORCHESTRATED BY THE AAC
I wish Greg and all WD followers a very happy new year.
I love you guys!
Cheers
Col
I understand why nobody wants to accept deflation as the next phenomena, but Rick is probably right. There is not vast inflation of the money supply as far as main street is concerned. The banks have lots of printed dollars, but they are not loaning them to us.
Also, the Dollar is going up, in the basket of currencies. That’s deflation. Also, the velocity of money is going down, down, down. For the time being, that is all deflationary, and will remain so, until it changes. It could change in a heart beat, no body knows. Ultimately inflation is what’s coming, but nor for now.
Agree
Dent and Rick are correct that there are deflationary forces in the economy.
There have been since the 2008 bust. If the fed did not act and the congress do the bailouts and stimulus we would have had a massive deflationary depression as the bad debts got liquidated.
BUT it was avoided by reflagging the asset bubble with more debt (QE) and ZIRP
Where Dent and Rick are wrong is they somehow expect the fed and the congress to step back and do nothing when the bond bubble bursts.
We know that they won’t if history is a guide – they will fight it with every thing they have because their existence depends on it.
The U.S. governmemt can’t afford higher rates
Qe4 or something like it will be introduced if it looks like to the fed deflation is taking root.
Gordon T long agrees on the Treasury call.
Explore this site, you will not be disappointed.
http://www.gordontlong.com/Tipping_Points.htm
A well articulated argument. Time will tell if he is right.
It will be a scary market if all assets (food, metal, land etc) collapse in value, banks restrict access to your accounts and the best situation is to end up with 25% of your current asset values. Better start hiding money under the mattress.
Deflation is the big boogie man the bankers use to frighten people. They are the big losers if asset prices drop. Have you not suffered the loss of purchasing power the last 100 years from inflation? If real deflation occurred you would be able to buy everything cheaper. Would it be so bad that gas, food, and housing was bid lower ? Sure there are many factors to consider……… Unless they are hedged, the top 10% (and bankers) would be the biggest losers……… Sounds to me like a partial reset we’re all looking for………… Again, this is not going to happen. Can you imagine the loss of tax revenue ? Now can you imagine how much printing is needed just to stay afloat ? Results……. Currency debasement, a polite way of saying INFLATION.
I believe it is more complex than that, as financial strife will bring job losses, losses in purchasing power, lower prices to meet the market and the lower cost base, and if you are in debt – mortgage or personal, it means you will not be able to pay it back, so asset prices will fall also in a fire sale. This is serious deflation, and it is rare because the credit system is a ponzi scheme that is nearing its end. Yes, financial institutions also fear deflation most of all, and rightly so.
There are exponential/mathematical problems associated with money printing, and those in control know that they are near the limit. Deflation first, followed by inflation is my take.
But I try and hedge both ways.
Emeth and others, I agree with Jeff L. – deflation is just a giant boogeyman that the-powers-that-be try to scare us with. Here’s my take – true deflation is impossible with a fiat currency. There can, and will be asset inflation for assets which have been manipulated upwards (examples: the stock market, the housing market). We WILL see asset deflation of these insane bubbles created by TPTB. This type of asset inflation is necessary to bring prices back to free market levels. However, think about this – who in their right mind would accept less worthless, fiat money in exchange for life’s necessities – food, clothing, clean water, gasoline, oil, equipment, computers, etc.? It’s NOT going to happen. Everyone needs these things, and fiat money is flowing like water over Niagara Falls. We should not be fooled into thinking that prices for necessities are going to fall like rocks. Deflation would imply that fiat currencies are becoming more valuable. This will not happen! Our fiat debt certificates aren’t any more valuable than toilet paper.
Jeff and Emeth,
You are both on target.
INflation favours the Bankers and Government – Losers are Wage Earners because of the Money Illusion ( loss of purchasing power).
DEflation favours the wage earners – Losers are Bankers and Government (debt destruction, falling asset values and lost tax revenue).
Hence the Policy to create INflation at all costs (including debasement of the currency du jour).
Greg: I keep thinking that the last interview was the best, but by far, he has nailed it. I finally found someone to agree with almost 100 percent. I have not subscribed for years to a newsletter, but I will for his information. I don’t think you can top this guy anytime soon. Love the gold price, wish he would have given a silver target too. In a deflationary depression, homes are worthless, sell them, banks are volatile, move your money out and buy hard assets that mean something to you, something paid for, car loans will implode, land prices may hold up but for how long? Student loans, forget about that, and when you lose your job because the debt bubble has blown, you want to be able to live on what you have left. Equity in your home, it will be gone. Need it to retire? Too bad, gone. As they said in the South Park video about your bank deposit……”and its gone”…..and get out before it is too late. Remember the pictures of the food lines? Yep….get ready for 65 million on food stamps, disability to implode, Obamacare to bankrupt families, and then, we look like a third world nation……God have mercy on our country and our souls……
Lynn,
Thank you for the additional analysis. The only way to own anything it by holding the title in your hand. Once again people will be rewarded for holding clear title unleveraged equity. Sure it may go down in value but you will still own it. Americans have been rewarded for leverage and that is about to change. Also we have been told that money is debt (Federal Reserve Notes) and Debt is and asset (Treasury Bonds and other bonds) We are going to find out that neither is true.
Greg
” I finally found someone to agree with almost 100 percent. I have not subscribed for years to a newsletter, but I will for his information. I don’t think you can top this guy anytime soon. Love the gold price, wish he would have given a silver target too. Love the gold price, wish he would have given a silver target too” …………………….Wow, Greg, don’t see it…….Sounds more like someone who already follows/worships Ackerman. Anyone else here thinks ” you can’t top this guy anytime soon.” …….. First time poster making these comments ? And he’s going to subscribe ? Been to his site. They all “love the projected gold price” (lower).
Jeff L,
I am trying to offer a variety of perspectives and Ackerman has been around for a long time. We shall see if his calls are correct.
Greg
Jeff,
I agree that “Lynn” s post throws a plethora of red flags
Jeff …
I think I understand what Ackermam is trying to say … if the US dollar continues to rise and becomes king … then all other fiat currencies in the world become worthless … so “everyone” in the world will need to own US dollars … so instead of one(1) Quadrillion dollars in the world … the Fed will have to produce four(4) Quadrillion dollars and hand them out for all country’s to use … hence the fiat money wealth Americans own now will be worth only a quarter of what it is current worth (if we are lucky). Ackerman calls this “deflation” of our wealth … what we at WatchDog call this is “inflation”.
So … there it is … I think all the confusion is simply be a matter of “semantics” what Ackerman calls “deflation” (a strong dollar that results in the destruction of 75% of our wealth) is what we WatchDog’ers call ‘inflation” (a destruction of 75% of our wealth).
Ackerman must see gold as “fiat” wealth … and if so … then he is obviously going to say it can be worth 75% less in the future … we at WatchDog don’t see gold as being worthless “fiat” … we see gold as something “very rare” and precious that will rise in value as ever more fiat paper is printed (that destroys ones paper wealth by 75%).
So … the confusion in his mind as I see it … is a semantic one (where he calls inflation “by a different name” (deflation) and he looks upon gold as being a “worthless relic” (a piece of fiat paper).
Those who subscribe to his way of looking at things must be really really confused … as a stronger and stronger dollar results in the loss of 75% of ones wealth and a real physical “unencumbered” commodity like gold is looked upon as being “encumbered” fiat debt???
I think there are already $4qn in derivatives out there.
Did you know there is an options market on/for derivatives ?
I didn’t until yesterday.
Mind boggling.
All tertiary wealth is going to nothing, every bogus claim
on real money is in the process of dying before our eyes.
Stocks, bonds and the USD itself.
How is a paid for house or property you can farm going to be worthless?
Are you planning to live in a tent?
Deflation causes all assets to drop in value, because their are no buyers. As he said, he expects them to be worth 25% of their current value. This is literally worth-less.
Lynn,
Just curious. You state in a deflationary depression that homes are worthless and to sell them. Would you recommend that I sell my home that has no mortgage which I bought for the sole purpose of living in, not to make money on? If so, where do you suggest I live after I sell my home?
This has been hashed through before, but it bears repeating for the modern-day ‘deflationist’, beings how we’re visiting this argument – yet again, as the price of oil ‘deflates’ and gets everyone all in a lather (for now):
In short, we live in ‘politicized economy’. There is no way in bloody hell that the central planning hierarchy is going to allow any sort of sustained economic ‘cleansing’ to take place. This has already been proven out less than a decade ago, and has made absolute embarrassments out of men like Robert Prechter and Harry Dent in the process.
The social ramifications of a Real, Sustained Deflationary, market-clearing event would turn this country inside out – not that it won’t anyway in due course, but definitely Not before central planners ply their trade of $liquifying anything and everything to sustain social stability. And since social stability equates political stability, what can be done, will be done to preserve the socio-political status quo.
It is easy for some to sit in the comfort of their homes, gated communities, remote locations, etc., thinking that deflationary times will be tough, but that they will arrive no matter what because nothing can stop the process, etc. Wrong. And if these people think they’re going to survive a real deflationary clearing, unscathed by either the political class or perhaps even their own fellow citizens, they really need to sit down with a stiff whiskey sour and sort out their thoughts…
Lastly, there are Major geopolitical events and power shifts in progress, with more coming in like waves crashing the beach. These events, much more so than what happens in our domestic markets, are the drivers of what happens to the U.S. going forward – both internally and externally. Easily within a year, ‘Deflation’ or
‘Inflation’ as terms bandied about, could become nuisance distractions, as the U.S. plods closer to (Real) War with Russia and China.
Greg, I hardly know where to start with this guy ex. I guess I would say that Harry Dent look like a genius next to him. Ackerman throws around words like “deflation” the strong dollar, etc without even thinking about fundamentals that are now lacking in the rigged casino that people still call a “market”. Ask yourself. as an INVESTOR, would you REALLY lend money to a bankrupt government for 30 years at less than 2% when real inflation as computed the correct way by John Williams is around 9%? . ( this guy is not an investor he is a trader/ gambler) The dollar is KING just because it has more volume than any other currency? has he even bothered to look at the Double Helix trade and currency agreements that are being made between the Russians and Chinese that will facilitate more than half of all world trade within 5 years? ….. How about $800 gold? right now the cost of production for gold is around $1200 and silver $23…… does he think that the cost of production will drop enough so that gold and silver can be profitably mined at $800? and if it can’t be mined for profit , ( as is the case now with silver) then no silver gets mined, which is the exact situation that we are in right now with both the US and Canadian mints fully out of silver blanks. I buy a lot of silver and just received my order from August a couple of weeks ago , and the price has dropped more since then!!! ( not to mention the rigging in the paper markets) Gold ALWAYS follows M-1 ( which they quit publishing in 2006) but is recomputed by John Williams…..until about 5 years ago when they started to rig the market. The REAL price of gold based on this long standing benchmark should be north of $3,000 right now!!
Ok , so now , if I heard him right, this guy is advocating that his clients should hold dollars in an emergency, rather than gold??? In the 1930’s, which BTW were deflationary, the dollar WAS gold, and could be converted as such ( at least until they confiscated the gold and then revalued it up by 40% once the government had most of it.)I understand that most of the sheep don’t yet understand that Money is gold and nothing else, but the Russians and Chinese are about to redefine that game as they will be soon backing their currencies with gold. Anyway, the dollar is now backed by nothing, but this guy wants you to go buy the 30 year debt of a bankrupt currency for a 2% return in the hopes that you might get a capital gain if interest rates drop? anyone who would do this as an investment is taking MASSIVE risk……. the dollar as we know it won’t even be around in 30 years!!!
Finally he says that a QE-4 won’t work, and I agree it won’t in the long term, but the one thing that the PTB will NEVER allow is a massive deflation of financial assets or real estate. they will inflate until the whole game is over , because it is the path of least resistance… when it all blows up , it will be the worst financial mess in the history of the world…….. and then where does that leave his 30 year T bonds??? … where does that leave gold?.. Think about it folks.
You said, “…but the one thing that the PTB will NEVER allow is a massive deflation of financial assets or real estate. they will inflate until the whole game is over ”
What Rick and others suggest is that we underestimate the power and danger of ‘exponential growth’. Nothing seems to happen for a long time, then the whole thing comes apart. Those in power know and understand the danger, but are trying to walk on the edge, past which there is no turning back.
Infinite inflation is mathematically impossible …. that is the point, and every traditionally educated person understands this, particularly central bankers.
Consider this –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY
Great posts Agent P and Sparky……….. Some here want to imply that “this time is different”. I will agree that anything is possible but those in charge have up till today chosen the easy road. I would go so far as to say they have passed any point of turning around…….. Yes, they could shut the presses down tomorrow and everything would collapse……. Given the psychos running the show they will continue doing the only thing they know until the lever (control) is physically taken from them…………. Now or later I chose not to place my faith in this piece of paper backed by nothing but the full faith and debt of +$200 Trillion. Soon to be measured in Quadrillions.
Some interesting points there Spanky.
Deflation is not totally unavoidable no matter the noise.
QE to date has done ZERO for growth.
Exponential QE will do NEGATIVE print for growth.
The effects of it (deflation) are reduced costs….wages and fuel for example. It may seem a stretch that $800 production of Gold/oz is not within the realms of reality, but do not underestimate the power of the deflationary cycle..it is very damaging…but ultimately it is what is required to help an economy adjust/rebalance. Think of it in terms of where manufacturing went and why it potentially may come back to the USA. An adjusted standard of living is the consequence. but sustainable growth is the ultimate positive.
TPTB cannot control the encroachment of DEflation. Printing to excess will not overcome the forces of it. Printing will keep the system liquid and inflate assets that are supported by the debt paradigm. Their mandate may well be to do everything necessary … but they have proven to be human…they have failed in the past….and this will again be shown that they do not understand the problem. They are using Keynesian monetary theory to solve a perceived cyclical problem. The problems are structural and are many.
RA is not the only one advocating buying government bonds.
Have you seen the latest MyRA provisions….retirement savings are to be mandated to buy govt. bonds. Funny how that concept is now working into the psyche of the masses.
I just want to say wow, go back maybe six months I mention that I was hoarding cash. Short position in the Russell 2000. Never thought about 20s though. It’s not like I have a big stash. Lost most of my investments shorting this Market. Every year since 2008 becomes a little more interesting. If it is bad as we know it is, you have to give the government credit for keeping the card game together. Don’t think they’ll be any winners for 53-year-olds. We The viewers come to Greg site to find answers. I feel we need to spend more time creating friendships and closer ties to our families. That alone has more value than gold, silver and cash. I had a fire today that burned down my business. I have insurance. God seems to keep me humble.
Spank. That about sums it up.Great analysis
Sorry to hear that Brian. I hope that “insurance” will do you right. Money always seems to travel their way flawlessly…not so much back to the “insured”. The biggest are by far the worst.
It might be a sign to make adjustments to what lies ahead for you and your business. We have 2 and are constantly changing /planning to survive constantly changing “issues” of doing business in the years ahead. I personally believe that they have been slowly, deliberately, been destroying small business for years.
Please friend, think carefully and continue forward with what is best for you and your family.
The deflation mr Ackerman predicts will be caused by two factors. Firstly falling commodity prices driven by lack of demand and secondly a rising dollar due to a flight to safety, I agree with both of these.
The thing that mr Ackerman seems to ignore is that the US is less than 5% of the worlds population and a rising dollar will create inflation in the rest of the world. This is already evident in massive buying of gold and silver in India, China and Russia.
So the real question is whether there is enough physical metal to go around, if there is then $810 may be a realistic price. If the west runs out of metal then the price could go very high.
Ron…think carefully about your first paragraph. The value of life-saving, necessary, tangible items dropping and the value of paper fiat rising. Ackerman tells you more paper is what you should have. Pretty clear who’s team he is on.
The earth does NOT work that way.
Last man standing – Right On! These poor guys (I mean that sincerely) need to go back to Economics 101 (not the Keynesian variety) and study a bit. One question for these guys: Concerning the “rising dollar” and the “flight to safety,” where does the almighty dollar come from? Correct answer – the printing press! It is printed into existence on PAPER (unlimited, near worthless resource), is a debt certificate, and is backed by nothing! Oil and other commodities are scarce, limited, take time and work to produce/extract from the earth, and are needed by everyone. Paper to rise, and scarce, precious goods to fall in value? Tell me another joke, Sam!
Greg …
Rick Ackerman projects a price for gold anywhere between $810 and $2300 fiat dollars per ounce … others (like Dent) believe gold will go as low as $200 fiat dollars and still others (like Sinclair) believe gold will go as high as $50,000 fiat dollars per ounce. Now think for a moment about what all these analysts have in common … they project golds “value” in terms of man’s fiat paper money!!!
However, more and more worthless fiat is being created by the minute in Japan, Europe and the US to keep the $1 quadrillion paper dollar house of cards from collapsing … we at WatchDog should be using a different paradigm … not valuing gold and silver in terms of fiat paper but “in terms of its rarity in nature”. It’s not the amount of fiat paper you can get for your precious metals … but the fact that you “actually own” full title to some of God’s rare and un-leveraged treasure.
Our Great Master created a “very limited amount” of gold and silver in the universe … and little exists here on Earth … these two elements are a treasure “in and of themselves” (irrespective of the amount of leveraged fiat paper someone decides to offer you for it at the moment) … gold and silver are worth accumulating in their own right … in the same way one would want to own a painting by a Great Master … or the way one would like to own a rare Lamborghini … or own the Hope Diamond … it’s not “the leveraged paper price” put on such things that is important … it’s the actual possession and clear title to owning something “that is very rare and unique that is important” and such things keep their value when other things collapse all around us.
Now to be fair God would probably want each person on Earth to own “an equal amount” of his treasure! … Just as we share out equal servings of a birthday cake at a party celebration.
Let’s determine exactly what “humanities fair share is” of the two elements (gold and silver) God created and placed here on Earth for us.
Currently these two elements (gold and silver) are being mined each year on planet Earth in the following quantities:
a) 2,000 tons of Gold each year
b) 16,000 tons of Silver each year
and there is currently 9 billion people on planet Earth! … Therefore each person to have a “fair share” of God’s rare treasure … needs to buy 0.00711 ounces of gold and 0.05688 ounces of silver each year!
Over person’s lifetime (say 100 years) … each person buying the above amount of precious metal per year would acquire about 0.711 ounces of gold and 5.688 ounces of silver… keep in mind the question we are solving “is not how much fiat paper” gold is worth … but “how many physical ounces” of God’s treasure we should fairly own.
Let’s go one step further:
Consider a family with two children … when the parents pass on … each child would inherit their parents treasure which would add approximately “one-half ounce of gold” and “6 ounces of silver” to the child’s stockpile.
As a child today should have inherited the lifetime savings of ten(10) generations (the gold and silver treasure from his parents, his grandparents, his great-grandparents, etc..) this means “each child” on Earth should already own about 5 ounces of gold and 60 ounces of silver (just to have their “fair share” of God’s treasure).
Actually … I might be too conservative … let’s make it twenty(20) generations … so each and every one of us living today should own about 10 ounces of gold and 120 ounces of silver!! … AND THAT’S IT!!
For a married couple … they would own 20 one ounce gold coins and 240 one ounce silver coins tucked away safely to pass on to their two children. Buying any more then this amount of God’s unencumbered treasure “will then become unfair” to the other members of Humanity.
However, the Russian’s, Chinese, Indian’s, etc., currently buying up massive amounts of gold and silver … so obviously some people are not going to get their fair share of God’s treasure!
What would the cost be in fiat dollars for a married couple to own “a fair share” of God’s precious metal treasure? … At current prices 20 ounces of gold will cost $24,000 dollars and 240 ounces of silver will cost about $4000 dollars. That’s a grand total of $28,000 US dollars … or about one years wages for an average worker!
Those who still need to buy gold and silver … because your grandparents, great-grandparents, etc. never passed down any of their accumulated wealth to you in the form of physical gold and silver… today’s prices for gold and silver are really not that expensive … and a married couple can “catch up” and easily accumulate “a fair share of God’s treasure” for their children.
However … don’t get greedy … don’t try to keep up with the Russian’s, Chinese, Indian’s, etc. … simply accumulate for your family 20 ounces of gold and 240 ounces of silver … and that’s it … it is exactly what your “fair share” of God’s treasure should be!!!
Some WatchDod’ers might be saying … just 10 ounces of gold and 120 ounces of silver is all I can own?
Yes! … That’s it (if you want to be fair).
You may also be saying … such a small amount of gold for everyone? … how could it’s fiat price ever go up! …
Don’t get discouraged so easily … let’s assume only 1% of the people in the world “acts” to obtain their fair share of God’s treasure (and they buy 10 ounces of gold each) … what kind of demand will this produce?
Let’s make the very conservative calculation:
One percent (1%) of nine(9) billion people is 90,000,000 … now multiply by ten(10) ounces of gold … and it equals … 450,000 tons of gold … but the world only produces 2000 tons of gold per year!! …
With such an “out of sync” supply/demand picture … do you really believe gold will sell for $200 fiat dollars per ounce?
With demand more then 200 times the supply (and half that supply being taken off the market by Russia, China and India right now) … I would say Jim Sinclair is under-estimating the fiat price of gold by at least an order of magnitude.
Based on the simple supply/demand calculation above … the “fiat price” of gold should be about $500,000.00 dollars … or half a million fiat dollars per ounce!!
And this half a million fiat dollar price for one ounce of gold … is “still less” then all the above ground gold in the world divided into $1 quadrillion fiat dollars!!
Wow … to much alcohol and it’s not even midnight … OK this is the real corrected version!!
OOPS!! Made a math error!! in last comment … Re-post this corrected version!!!
Some WatchDod’ers might be saying … just 10 ounces of gold and 120 ounces of silver is all I can own?
Yes! … That’s it (if you want to be fair).
You may also be saying … such a small amount of gold for everyone? … how could it’s fiat price ever go up! …
Don’t get discouraged so easily … let’s assume only 1% of the people in the world “acts” to obtain their fair share of God’s treasure (and they buy 10 ounces of gold each) … what kind of demand will this produce?
Let’s make the very conservative calculation:
One percent (1%) of nine(9) billion people is 90,000,000 … now multiply by ten(10) ounces of gold … and it equals … 28,125 tons of gold … but the world only produces 2000 tons of gold per year!! …
With such an “out of sync” supply/demand picture … do you really believe gold will sell for $200 fiat dollars per ounce?
With demand more then 10 times the yearly supply and half that supply being taken off the market by Russia, China and India right now (making demand 20 times yearly supply) … I would say Jim Sinclair’s estimated fiat price of gold is closer to the mark.
A simple supply/demand ratio of (1/20) should give a “fiat price” to gold about 20 times today’s price in dollars ($24,000) or about half the fiat dollar per ounce projection Jim Sinclair proposes!! (Sinclair would be right on the money if 2% of the world’s population bought 10 ounces of gold each)
And this $24,000 fiat dollar price for one ounce of gold … is “much much less” then all the above ground gold in the world divided into $1 quadrillion fiat dollars (or $625,000 fiat dollars per ounce)!!!.
Paul,
The Physical Supply/Demand dynamic is more severe than you state.
That indicates supply is coming from deep pools of storage…viz-a-viz The FED, BOE, GLD (raided) and even the Vatican. There is a limit on how far they will go to deplete their hoards in order to suppress Gold.
Forget about 1% having 10 ozs Gold. By the time the price moves the trading limits will allow the CB’s to get what they want first. It is Silver that will be in very high demand because of this unaffordability and lack of availability.
Paul,
Love the comment but can you make them a little shorter? Please don’t be upset, just work on editing them down a little in the future my friend. Thank you and Happy New Year.
Greg
OK! … Happy New Year !!!
Re More money printing and QE:
Just because it doesn’t work, hasn’t worked, doesn’t mean they won’t do it!
He mentioned that we are now at the same place we were at the end of the dot com bubble.
But what did the Fed do then? Lowered rates and caused the housing bubble,
When that crashed what did they do lowered rates and started QE 1
When that failed they did QE 2
When that failed they did QE 3
Why would central banks react any different to a collapse especially a deflationary collapse.
The only answer that dent and Rick give is that. More Primting won’t work (and therefore it won’t happen) I’m not accepting that answer.
If they can’t print to pay their debt, there is only one other out…default. Bankrupt.
It is the IGNORANCE of the people who let this continue. Folks, please continue to do your part in supporting their default.
greg;
Good stuff, I liked R. A.’s point of view, “keep a shoebox of 5s 10s and 20s in the closet, cuz the guy at the gas station wont recognize a 1963 silver coin”.
I took JC Davis out to one of my escape locations, yesterday and we browsed the preps, and had some great conversations.
“the saker of the vineyard”
Full Spectrum BattlefieldThe threat against China and Russia is a full spectrum battlefield: they are facing potential AirSeaSpaceCyberElectromagnetic warfare, not exempting chemical, biological and nuclear; soon to include laser and hypersonic weapons; economic warfare; and war by proxy armies, NGO organizations, covert operators and agents, with global media demonization and propaganda in psyops mode. Each nation in the resistance partnership had to permit the other to look, touch and feel deeply into one another’s most treasured defense secrets, once armed against the other, now united with a new partner. They knew they were in the same ‘foxhole’ facing the same enemy. And they both understood, that in time, neither would survive without the other. There had never been a hegemon so desperate or so fundamentally weak, yet so powerfully equipped to destroy all normalcy, perhaps, most of humanity, if need be, for it to survive. China-Russia had to protect one another and then try to save humanity and world order. The initial attack was economic, not military. It hit Russia…..
Allen it has been a true blessing to know you.
jc
likewise al
Come on Al…you read and bring a lot to this blog. “Ackerman” is an insider shill. Sniff around the edges of this guy…everything stinks. Just another disinfo paper player…they throw $ values around but always dodge “their position”. Not to mention the comment about Paulson…lmao!!
I love it when people/traders/brokers recommend that you finance your paper position at the expense of real, life-saving, proven centuries old tangible items. What honest person recommends that?
Greg has plenty of good guys here that level with us about what they do. The “other Greg”, Rob Kirby, Bill Holter, JW, Chris Powell and more. We understand why Greg tries to bring many views into the open. Frankly, I wish I had the savvy at the beginning of this paper scam to buy low, speculate, long/short the market to build my survival position beyond what it is. Fortunately for me, I am old school conservative and woke up when I did. I have exactly what I am supposed to when she ‘blows’.
The guy at the local gas station WILL recognize the value of silver coins, the clerk at the convenience store/gas stop won’t. I don’t think that I need to explain that one to you. I go to a gas station that is now in its 3rd generation. I have known all 3. I realize that they get gas from corpco, but I choose to support local families of tradition and pride. They have always been a bit less the all of the corpco shop and robs. When shtf, would you sell your fuel for 5’s, 10’s, 20’s? No you would not. You would save it for a “rainy day.” So will the farmer, so will the gun and ammo dealer, etc. These people have items that have keep real people really alive for centuries.
How much cash to have around is always a tough one. Personally, it may have value in cities for quite awhile because most that live in the city don’t get it. Like I mentioned above, no one will take it for earthly, tangible, live-saving goods within days after the crash. Potato chips, tombstone pizza, Coca-Cola and air jordans are NOT life sustaining goods in the real world.
FYI on Gas, fuel, oil folks. I have received first hand info from at least 6 well connected, trustworthy friends that work in various levels in this biz. They say that the Bakken boom is over. So much for US oil sustainability to have, hold, sell for the next hundred years. lol! These prices could stay low for a very long time.
Al, another thought…why don’t you drop a few of the real bombs in JW’s December letter…really shake things up brother!
Great post, Last Man.
G. Edward Griffin says it only takes 3% to make a change.
Change is certainly coming. Since America’s republic was hijacked in 1879, we’re not responsible for any of this debt.
WOW, lastman,
u gave me alot to think about. lol, I still liked the guys 5s 10s and 20s comment. 🙂
I got a few of those laying around as well Al…However, I don’t think that those will carry much weight for long in my neighborhood. Let me explain…
EVERYONE, that I purchase my tangibles from is pretty well clued in. All my farmer buddies will ONLY take fiat, checks for their items for now. If things blow, in no way, shape or form will they take it from me…they will want something that will save their life. These are real folks who have already/trying to walk away from a system that they have realized is a huge lie. My fuel stop is an old school entrepreneur as is my local gun shop, bakery, feed mill, etc.
They all came from parents that had very little or nothing and saw what was truly necessary to make to tomorrow.
Last night we were watching “Gold Rush”. Our favorite character, 94 y.o. Mr. John Schnabel. The man is an Icon.
I don’t call many men Mr. anymore. Just a few items of reality mentioned in a tribute to him. They had people who tweet during the show asking him questions. “John, what did you get for Christmas when you were 8…His reply…dinner. 12 men were killed in his employ over the years…IMO, these were far tougher men than we are today…but they died like free men. On their feet working proudly to take care of their family. He remembered every one of them. Most today wouldn’t even give 1 man a thought a year later. Finally, his mantra, “Family first, Always try, never quit, failure is not and option”.
That is why you, me and others here must be that ‘”lastmen/women standing”.
Dear Greg
I take my hat off to Rick Ackerman – he is spot on, however, we are living in uncertain times.
The major incidences that will prove Rick’s prediction for GOLD to be wrong on the downside forecast is the ramping up of the ‘War Cycles’ and China’s declaration of its gold reserves.
With 22 conflicts already taking place around the globe, throw in the currency wars and the declining oil price and you have the odds for a ‘major war’ narrowing significantly.
We will undoubtedly see more civil unrest around the world and America will not be immune.
To this end I see GOLD edging lower for a period of time due to dollar strength (first half of 2015)
The unravelling of the dollar strength and its position as the world’s reserve currency will take another 30 months and then it will all change.
Instead of Gold declining with dollar strength in the future it will begin to edge higher and surpass Rick’s prediction on the upside.
The next elected President of the U.S. will inherit a poisoned chalice.
Please see below Jim Rickard’s comments on deflation
“It is one thing when prices drift downward over time due to innovation, scalability or other efficiencies. This might be considered “good” deflation and is familiar to any contemporary consumer who has seen prices of computers or wide-screen TVs fall year after year. It is another matter when prices are forced down by unnecessary monetary contraction, credit constraints, deleveraging, business failures, bankruptcies and mass unemployment. This may be considered “bad” deflation. This bad deflation was exactly what was required in order to return the most important currencies to their prewar parity with gold.” – Jim Rickards
My best to you and yours for the coming year.
May I also add how much I enjoy reading the insightful commentaries from your subscribers?
Kind Regards
Mike Harvey
Thank you Mike for your comments and kind words. We do have some really smart folks here.
Greg
Rick is correct. If you step back and look at the big picture, it’s pretty obvious. John Williams is correct too. It will all play out…. Deflation/inflation; just get whatever you need to live on for a few months. ( more if you can afford it)
Also: have your car/truck/home nicely maintained, cash, Gold/silver. oh and food! .. Don’t forget the food, unless yer on a diet!
All good ways of looking at this. Thank you for the comment.
Greg
Greg, I have been listening to you for quite some time and I appreciate all the guests that have on your site. I cannot however understand where these deflationists are coming from nor do I understand how any of the Fed practices of money printing/ bailouts promote such an environment. For the past 6 plus years savers have taken a HUGE inflationary hit through real inflationary cost of everyday items and zirp. I think the greatest risk we are exposed to is the unpredictable nature of the policy makers and fiat money losing purchasing power. How does any of this make any sense?
Clem,
When you think of deflation, do not think of it as prices going down. Look at it as debt destruction in the bond market. I think we are going to get that and inflation all at the same time. Thank you for your comment.
Greg
Thank you Greg for all the variety of holiday treats you bring to us from your kitchen. When I get out of my disabled financial rat hole I will send some fiat King Dollars to you to help defray the costs of your most excellent news website.
Russ,
Please do not send anything to the site until you have fully prepared and put you and your family in the best position possible. 2015 will be a wild ride my friend. Thank you for your comment and kind words of support.
Greg
“Its not as though dollars gets shoveled out of airplanes”
Guess he doesn’t remember “helicopter Ben” Bernanke
Understatement of the year- Of course “printing” doesn’t improve the overall economy (and it NEVER was meant to) it was intended to prop up the banks, stock market and homes- which has to this day.
Fed will NEVER allow the dollar to continue its move upwards for much longer(deflation) without a fight.
Pablo. I think you are exactly right. The propaganda of recovery is likened to a fighter before a fight.
I’m sure he Is a bright guy and probably correct about interest rates. It seems he can’t imagine a world where global finance and all currencies collapse but that is exactly where we are headed.
At some point the bond market will blow up. What happens when the world realizes that the U.S. stock and bond markets are doomed also?
$1 quadrillion…that is a number that is just so hard to picture. I have to agree we are looking at a spiral of deflation. Why?
Main Street folks are not buying. Outside of 401(k) and Roth IRA accounts, they aren’t investing. PM prices are crashing, energy prices are crashing, commercial real estate is crashing, the only thing propping up single family homes is the banks keeping their foreclosure inventory off the market. We’ve yet to see the holiday shopping numbers, but early projections aren’t good.
The only thing pushing inflation is FED money printing and market commodity prices, the latter we know are massively being manipulated by the FED member banks to solidify their bankrupt positions.
Can central banks really outlast all of Main Street when they are becoming diametrically opposed in their positions?
That will depend on government looking the other way and allowing the fraud to continue to oblivion.
He says he’s a “deflationist”, and then talks about “buying oil in a currency with a limitless supply”. My head is spinning.
Greg. I equate deflation and inflation as the same mix of the making of wine. Fruit, sugar, Yeast, and water. Yeast is the deflation that causes sugar, and fruit to produce inflation of alcohol. In the end given time the coast of wine is much higher the coast to make it.
Ron Paul, Nigel Farage, Jim Sinclair all agree. http://youtu.be/Rld7vGeupfg
Cost of wine is higher then the cost to make it. Sometimes I think my mind is slipping .
Regarding the U.S.’s economic status relative to the rest of the world, along with the U.S. dollar’s global status, it sounds like Rick thinks of the U.S. as some sort of “Invincible Mario”: running amok all over the world with flashing colors, bumping into everything and wreaking havoc with impunity. But what if Invincible Mario falls down a bottomless pit? Or what if the game clock runs out? The funny little tune that plays when Super Mario dies sure comes to mind as for what the future may hold for Arrogant America….
RA stays with his Deflation perspective. He has wrestled with this for many years.
The US dollar is his refuge (and gold), I think.
Maybe yes, maybe no eh?
King dollar may have a shelf life…like one more month, or 6 months, or…? EM defaults in dollars, China swaps and Russia cold war tactics on tap.
Best of the new year to u Greg.
Happy New Year Greg!
I know you were trying to be diverse bringing Rick Ackerman on so I will give you a pass on this one. Gold going lower? The dollar a safe haven? Really…..??
I know we have a lot of intelligent people who come here, so I will ask the question once again. How do we continue to service a 125 Trillion dollars in unfunded liabilities using 2.5 Trillion in tax revenue? I think by the shear fact that congress hasn’t passed a budget in five years should tell you something. It really doesn’t matter at this point. The reality is China and the rest of the world have grown tired of waiting for us to get our financial house in order, and are moving on without us.
Ackerman is just plane wrong when he say’s “the dollar can’t be replaced as world reserve currency”. Its being done right now! Does he really believe that the Federal Reserve can continue to buy all the Treasury Bonds that are being dumped back in the market right now? Eventually they’re going to run out if places ( like Belgium and Japan) to hide them.
Here is a time line that I find most interesting. I may not agree with some of the conclusions, but I think it is very close to what may happen.
http://x22report.com/economic-collapse/
See you next year Greg!
Greg.
I will make a prediction. 2015 will be the year of the dragon. The central planners see to much profit for it not to be.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/30/us-russia-crisis-markets-idUSKBN0K80OQ20141230
Correction. Its actually the year of the “Sheep” or Sheeple which makes more sense.
1991 was the year of the sheep, and the U.S. government went to war in the Persian Gulf. 2003 was the year of the sheep, and the U.S. went to war in Iraq. 2015 is the year of the sheep (starting February 19th this year), so I wonder which country (or countries) the U.S. regime will go to war with this time? And how many “sheeple” in America will blindly support it?
Jerry,
Ackerman did make a call at the beginning of 2014 and said rates would go down so he’s got something right. That said I want to bring on a variety of people for perspective. I think we will have inflation and deflation at the same time and both are going to intensify. It will not simply be one or the other. We will experience both. Thank you for the comment and the “pass” my friend. I also think the metal on metal war card will be flipped over this year and it will come from the Middle East.
Greg
Today I paid twenty cent less for gas than the price posted yesterday (deflationary) but I also paid $7.99 for hamburger meat (inflationary)
Agreed Smaulgld & Greg…both deflationary and inflationary. From a local perspective in SE US, I was talking with the butcher at Food Lion Grocery store. This chain is all over the SE and is usually somewhat less expensive than some other chains. The butcher told me that the price of all beef was going up $1/lb starting Jan 1st and the price of pork going up $0.30/lb. Beef has already increased approximately 22% since last January. Buy your canned goods now while the price is low. Happy New Year Greg!!! Many thanks for all you do!!
Greg, The QE dollars are NOT out of the corral (bankers’ playpen); therefore, they are not in circulation. Unless and until that happens, the only inflation we MainStreeters will see is intangible asset (see the stock markets) inflation, where PE ratios are swollen, and asset values are grossly exceeding actual production. The rest of us footsloggers reside in the world of dead money velocity (see Greg Mannarino) and shrinking incomes and lifestyle, which accounts for the loss of demand everyone cites. A “retail” hyperinflation is impossible in this scenario, as the consumer does not have access to the QE excess. This is a new arrangement, per my earlier post above. Best always. PM
Paul………. What do you call 10-50% price increases in…….. food, health care, housing, power bills, education. Those are the costs the middle class confront…….. Even gas (up to 6 months ago) was rising……… I continue to bring that up because it will be higher 6 months from now…….. You can put that down for another 2015 prediction.
Nailed it!
WOW Jerry what a great catalogue of events. Big thanks for this link.
I agree everything will be VERY deflated when compared to “how many ounces of gold or silver” it takes to buy whatever. I.E.- if some stocks or product’s value today is 1 ounce….then the deflation will come and 1 ounce will buy 20, 50, or 100 of those things.
I don’t see how a colorful, green toilet paper with numbers on it will have any real value except for toilet paper or for the amount of BTU’s it will give you for home heating. (Same as Weimar German Marks in 1924.)
Well, I know exactly how to save $600.00! I listened to this piece twice and I still haven’t the foggiest idea what this guy said. Happy New Year to everyone in USA Watchdog land!
don’t waste your time or money on this guy . he knows NOTHING!!!
Mister Ackerman’s prediction that gold’s price is likely to stay between 810 and 1,700 to 2,300 for a while seems realistic to me. It’s a good rule of thumb that the worst things rarely happen, and neither do the best things. So that expectation sounds about right. Of course there is always the possibility of exceptions, but until then, that’s how to bet.
I’ll include this to explain the Website I entered. Zackspages.com is a website I developed for my own use and as a homepage for gold bugs. It is free to use and has two styles, plus optional features. Wanted to tell you about this also. Your work is much appreciated, Greg. Keep up the great work. Many thanks.
Greg, once again for the insight from the interview with Rick Ackerman. In Holland we have only one guy – Willem Middelkoop – who warns for years now that the dollar and currencies will collapse. He wrote a book back in 2007/2008 ‘the day the dollar falls’. Now he changed his outlook into ‘the big reset’, but kept consistent with his rosy outlook for PM’s. For over 5 years we have seen countless predictions for an imminent crash. As that imminent crash didn’t arrive yet, I think it fuels the confidence of many that it won’t. For years now I try to understand what a deflationary crash means. As far I get it, it means that a lot of debt, and therefor currency, vanishes, as then fewer currency chases the same goods and services, which then deflate in price.
Wouln’t such an event not criple the confidence in the currency game? Would everyone stay in fiat in such an event? Who suffers the loss of all that vanishing debt? So far I can see the views of Peter Schiff, Mike Maloney and so on, but I try to get my mind around the scenario of mister Ackerman, a deflationary crash giving 810 dollars gold.
A deflationary crash…….a lot of currency value vanishes……..and would be a static situation? In 2008 I foloowed Bob Prechter on the deflation thing, but like said I try to get my mind around it………..I still have some educating to do……….
Wish you the best in 2015 Greg
Wim,
It should have crashed already but the powers have done unimaginable things including global crime to keep things afloat. I would not bet against Willem Middelkoop. This might be his year. Thank you for your comment and support!!
Greg
Greg, ‘thanks’ once again…..
a deflationary crash……..a lot of currency value vanishes……….prices deflate…….and that’s it? A staic situation from there? That would mean this fiat system would be the first to survive? Inflate……….some deflating………inflating………some deflating?
What do I miss?
……a static (not staic) situation from there………
Greg…happy new year to all…..Rick has been a deflationist all along…as are Nicole Foss(automatic earth)..the Elliott wave proponents…Ian Gordon and others…..I get the feeling they are calling for the deflation, then a reset and infation(new currency or monetary system)….while the inflationists…eg John Williams, the sprott team, willie and kirby, ……probably feel the inflation comes, followed by a reset(deflation?)…..but in both cases a really bad scenario for our standard of living….gold and silver still are probably the best way to “carry us thr to the other side”. …with some cash and basics for the immediate turmoil….again, you might want to consider Eric Janszen as a guest…..his Kaboom theory explains it well….
Greg,
Can we keep a running tally of all the predictions? I’d love to see a score sheet on who’s predictions came true and who’s never do come to fruition.
Thanks,
Mike
I believe Paul Craig Roberts said in your recent interview with him that since the markets are rigged there is no way to analyze what is happening based on economic theory or history. Some say inflation, some say deflation but in reality there is no way to know what will happen since we are in a completely rigged game. All we can know for sure that we, the 99%, will be the losers no matter what we do.
Greg: I appreciate you having guests from both sides of the inflation argument but I still haven’t heard a deflationist explanation that I understand. Ackerman comes close but if I understood him correctly, I think he said the inflated asset prices (financial sphere) does nothing to meet real bills, but if the Fed is buying those financial assets with new money as the people or pension funds sell the financial assets hasn’t the inflation (new money) just transferred into the real economy?
Only reason to sell if you are retired, you may need the equity for survival (most people have less than 1000.00 in an emergency), your neighborhood with 50 percent unemployment will become “unsafe” and you can’t afford your property taxes, and you need out. Now, it is a worthless piece of drywall, it is not safe, and you don’t have any reserves. Better to rent and be mobile, just my opinion or be as remote as you can….not easy to do. He speaks to the Prechter follower in me (only Prechter’s timing is so horrible), but I believe everything he says as we look for “validation” from others in our perception of things. Any time the herd is following Dent, Roberts, etc.,…run away from the herd, they get you slaughtered everytime….this man goes against the herd and I believe he is going to right in the end. Thanks again Greg for all your wonderful guests…I never saw him before and I appreciate the introduction.
Lynn Completely agree with your real estate assessment. Prices are going to drop and neighborhoods will become unsafe……… But I don’t care to have my life dictated by the whims of a landlord……. You might have to become ” mobile” sooner than you would like…… Saving money renting (not losing equity via home ownership) is good but……… winning a battle and losing the war comes to mind.
jeff l, lynn;
agreed, I think a camper is best, w/gudtruck, and several escape locations, so if the landlord gives problems, leave town.
I am fortunate to have 2 primary locations, w/3 other backup locations, remote, trusted prepper friends. anyhow,, tks al
I think a better plan would be to stay in your home, especially if its paid for, and use the money you would pay for rent to become more liquid, mobile, and prepared. So, its just the same if you can be mobile and leave either your own home or the rented home if you ever have to “get the hello out of Dodge.” In fact, here’s the Urban dictionary term for it. It seems to address exactly what you are referring too as I am sure they took their guns, gold, silver, and horse when they all got the hell outta there.. haha
http://www.urbandictionary.com
get the hell out of dodge
To leave somewhere immediately, to evacuate or scram.
“Get the hell out of Dodge” is a reference to Dodge City, Kansas, which was a favorite location for westerns in the early to mid 20th century. Most memorably, the phrase was made famous by the TV show “Gunsmoke,” in which villians were often commanded to “get the hell out of Dodge.” The phrase took on its current meaning in the 1960s and 70s when teenagers began to use it in its current form.
Awesome. We’re done here, so lets get the hell out of dodge!
Short lived king.
If a major upset in the markets takes place that causes currencies in other countries to fail the US dollar may well be the short lived king.
You can expect very quickly that this will turn around.
When it does turn around the shoe will be on the other foot.
That which makes the US dollar attractive in that there is a large supply of dollars to support the demand is also it’s greatest weakness.
Should all those dollars come back at once would be like a 5,000 foot tsunami.
I think Rick Akerman might be correct since it fits almost perfectly to Precious Metal Pete’s forecast from several years ago. Gold will continue to drop until it receives a no bid, meaning no one will sell their bullion for the spot price. This is where things will get interesting!
At the same time the govt entities of the world cannot endure much deflation. If house and property prices start falling by 20% or 30% in a deflation then the SHTF big time. Most states and govt’s make a large chunk of their income off property taxes and if that goes south then the problems really begin. Also, same goes for oil, corn, wheat, copper and related prices. When they hit a certain level production slows or stops and the mass layoffs begin. Imagine what this will do to the stock market!
Just dropping oil prices alone are sending shock waves through a lot of energy exporting countries with some countries experiencing massive inflation (Ruble?!) and fears of large defaults loom on the horizon. This is horrible to watch and don’t know how much longer the western countries can stay immune.
so, Rick thinks king dollar, by virtue of its infinite nature will continue to slay all comers, including the SDR. why would the IMF even be discussing such a future if it were “impossible” as he claims. the IMF is a bigger fan of the dollar than he is.
he glosses over the cheat of how the world (i.e. USA) is paying for real assets with worthless fiat paper. Rick sees this as desired by rest of the world too. for now it would seem correct because we ARE in a great deflation, the dollar is way up, however this is only because of immediate liquidity needs. sure, it will be a long unwinding, but the future is a moving away from the dollar, toward the Yuan, SDRs (the structure of which will very possibly include real assets like gold, silver, lumber, oil besides other fiat currencies in its basket) .
Rick sees no end to king dollar’s reign, while recognizing the black swans circling overhead. he sees them as bullish for the dollar. this is all the world knows, and this is all the world will ever want, according to Rick Ackerman. sorry, but I see the black swans destroying everything, especially the dollar that brought them around.
Contrary to Mr. Ackerman’s assertion, it IS possible to obtain a certificate for securities purchased for you by your broker. That’s what I asked for from my broker (Sprott) and they got it for me promptly.
The whole thing boils down to whether or not you trust the functioning of the “system” and the overall intentions of the people with access to all the buttons and levers of the “system”, as well as the method in which said people have attained such access.
Brian:
I don’t see how you can trust or have faith in those with their paws on the levers. They’re too arrogant and egotistical and believe that they have all the answers regardless of what history has proven to the contrary.
I guess he knows something that China and Russia don’t.
Almost all of the US debt is denominated in the US dollar. The US will not have to declare sovereign debt default. This will not be allowed to occur. Akerman’s scenario calls for massive deflation and for the globe to see the US as the last financial safe haven.
This is the last thing the powers that be want to happen. Instead, the US will inflate their way out of national bankruptcy, by printing a back breaking amount of dollars.
They will repay the national debt but do so in worthless paper currency, bankrupting their international creditors in the process.
The game plan all along has been to inflate. It’s inflate or die. Remember, inflation is a political process. Hyper-inflation is purely a monetary process. Deflation will not be allowed to occur. If deflation were to occur… you would see World War III.
Outlook, That is exactly what I think. That’s the skeleton and all the other possibilities have to fit in and around the skeleton.
I like to analyze things through exters pyramid. Historically, base money, near the base, was always solvent. Various bubbles higher up but derived from the base of the pyramid blew and collapsed resulting in periodic deflationary crashes. This is the environment deflationists have always been developing their theories in. However, now even base money is beyond insolvent. When this one blows the only thing left standing will be gold at the base.
Thank you Greg for being a truth seeker, for your generous spirit and for your faith-based, non-partisan political insights into our rotten domestic / global financial system. Your hard hitting truths stand you apart from the candy floss views and lies of MSM commentators who only serve the interests of the elites and Mammon.
I enjoyed this excellent year ending interview. Rick has many excellent testimonials and over a thousand subscribers. Praise to him for only charging $600 for his astute predictions and picks.. One thing, I tried to access his free trial link on your page and got: “This Connection is Untrusted. It uses an invalid security certificate. The certificate is not trusted because no issuer chain was provided.” Would you look into it in case the link to his web page has been compromised?
Tom G,
The link worked for me, so it might be your anti virus program? Thank you for your comment and kind words!
Greg
You need to look at the certificate in your browser. Many people use a self-signed certificate because they are free instead of shelling out $100.00/year to a root certificate provider. So long as the domain name matches it should be OK and will establish the SSL connection directly between your computer and the server. It will be secure enough that only the NSA will be able to intercept/read the transmission. 😉
Greg,
Happy New Year!
Here is the feel good story of the day. We end the year on a positive note.
http://fox6now.com/2014/12/31/developing-u-s-says-strike-killed-somalia-terrorist-leader/
Thank you 500 and Happy New Year to you and yours!!!
Greg
Happy New Year dear USAWatchdog-viewers!
Let’s try to make a difference in 2015, let’s put those New Year resolutions into practice, and let’s try to take the country back from the oligarchs!
I would like to like to alert all you viewers on a petition to stop the TPP:
http://www.sanders.senate.gov/stop-the-tpp
A short excerpt:
“The Trans-Pacific Partnership is a disastrous trade agreement designed to protect the interests of the largest multi-national corporations at the expense of workers, consumers, the environment and the foundations of American democracy. It will also negatively impact some of the poorest people in the world.
The TPP is a treaty that has been written behind closed doors by the corporate world. Incredibly, while Wall Street, the pharmaceutical industry and major media companies have full knowledge as to what is in this treaty, the American people and members of Congress do not. They have been locked out of the process.
Further, all Americans, regardless of political ideology, should be opposed to the “fast track” process which would deny Congress the right to amend the treaty and represent their constituents’ interests.
The TPP follows in the footsteps of other unfettered free trade agreements like NAFTA, CAFTA and the Permanent Normalized Trade Agreement with China (PNTR). These treaties have forced American workers to compete against desperate and low-wage labor around the world. The result has been massive job losses in the United States and the shutting down of tens of thousands of factories. These corporately backed trade agreements have significantly contributed to the race to the bottom, the collapse of the American middle class and increased wealth and income inequality. The TPP is more of the same, but even worse.”
Greg,
This was a really interesting interview with Rick Ackerman — enjoyed both his commentary and your questions. There appeared though to be several potential inconsistencies and/or problems with his deflationary thesis: Primarily as Rick notes, people like the dollar and it will continue to be a major currency — but…it is probably not worth anything and we print it “infinite amounts.” (emphasis on infinite and not worth anything). This argument is actually a contradiction.
The US currency has strengthened thus far because mass investors believe the 5% growth story, think that Q/E is done, and the ECB is on the cusp of major Q/E. Once the mainstream realizes that the growth is actually quite weak, that the ECB by organizational design (i.e., their charter) is limited in their Q/E capabilities, and that Q/E in the USA has to restart (otherwise their would be mass unemployment and declining tax revenues) — the confidence in the dollar will start to erode and may erode significantly. The 10% rise in the dollar already is a substantial tightening in a highly leveraged US economy. The deflationist argument works historically where you have a sound currency. The US currency is unsound — Larry Kotlikoff and John Williams have demonstrated this already.
Yes, bonds may be good in the short to intermediate term. The challenge is that when confidence in the currency erodes — the change happens quickly and the bond market would react rapidly and badly. As Paul Craig Roberts notes — if the $2 billion in bullion at the Comex was taken and/or a major country decided to sell treasuries — the weaknesses in the dollar would emerge rapidly. Bonds will crater. As Dr. Robert notes: the system can collapse at anytime. Eric Sprott probably shares this view.
In short, the inconsistency centers on an unsound currency. Unsound currencies ultimately crater and when they do — the fall is rapid. The net result = high level of inflation and high interest rates. Will this happen next year — do not know; will this happen within the next 3-5 years — highly likely.
Thanks…
Ackerman seems to talk in circles. I sure hope he’s right about deflation in soft commodities such as food prices since grocery store trips are killing me. Along the same vein he seems to think that Russia enjoys selling their oil and gas in a currency that can be produced in unlimited quantities, yet recent headlines seem to indicate that Russia is tired of this arrangement.
IMO the world central banks will not allow this deflationary cycle to continue, and one of my 2015 predictions is this: the world central banks, none more so than the Federal Reserve, is going to embark on a money printing binge larger than anything we have seen yet. Happy New Year!
Gregory, I’m one of your staunchest supporters on this site. I have the posts to prove it, but NOTHING HAPPENS regarding real inflation until the average Joe and Jane get their hands on some cash with which to create demand. Everybody talks about hyperinflation and cites Weimar Republic and Argentina, but what made those situations memorable was the inflated money supply got into circulation. The QE trillions are supposedly recapitalizing the banks, but it is just creating hyper ASSET inflation. In the meantime, the economy on the MainStreet level is dying, and we footsloggers with it. Best always. PM
Posted this earlier……. Paul………. What do you call 10-50% price increases in…….. food, health care, housing, power bills, education. Those are the costs the middle class confront…….. Even gas (up to 6 months ago) was rising……… I continue to bring that up because it will be higher 6 months from now…….. You can put that down for another 2015 prediction………………………………… Also……. The next option the Fed has will be their LAST option and everyone will know it. That’s when “perception” changes. That’s when EVERYTHING changes.
If fuel prices drop 50%, food prices should drop 50%. I read (somewhere in my 5 year journey) that 10 calories of energy are burned to get one calorie of food to the store. I believe it was on Steve St. Angelo’s blog (srsroccoreport.com)
There is still plenty of room to make a fair profit with those ratios…fair…What is fair?
” the world central banks will not allow this deflationary cycle to continue “………… Read China and Russia ( and their CB’s) will not let this go on indefinitely…………….. What I’ve been saying for a while…….time is up.
Printing money hasn’t achieved their desired objective (assuming INflation is it).
Velocity of money is dead in the water.
Even a “Bernanke Helicopter Drop” wouldn’t remedy the dilemma.
Once it (DEflation) gets a hold, it is very difficult to reverse.
The dual spectres of “uncertainty” and “loss of confidence” cannot be overturned by simply creating more debt.
Psychology will play a bigger part in the next episode. One that the FED (et all PTB) are trying desperately to change.
Money printing will certainly keep the system liquid, but that doesn’t fix the Bankrupt nature of it.
The article below deserves some attention (and if possible some action) as well:
Leak: U.S. pushing to undermine net neutrality and privacy in major trade agreements:
https://www.accessnow.org/blog/2014/12/18/leak-u.s.-pushing-to-undermine-net-neutrality-and-privacy-in-major-trade-ag
Greg,
I always wonder about those who are firmly operating in the System – if they overlook some of the trees, and lose perspective of the forrest?? Russia-China-India and the other BRICS ARE shifting away from the Dollar. But I think he is right about Deflationary forces being dominant. I feel that the USA no longer holds the Monopoly it thinks it does; or it wouldn’t be bullying so many others concurrently. The European Union, as well as Japan isn’t looking too good. I still believe that like in Sandlot Baseball – the other world player will hand the baseball (Dollars) back to the US and tell us that they aren’t playing by our rules anymore; then go play someplace else. If you’re not prepped yet: you better get going.
Greg, always better off from your informational site. Sad to say we are losing the battle out here on the Western Front, but as information is a sword & with your help we stand firm & resolved to take our country back to truth, freedom, and the (prior) American way – art b
Thank you Art and Happy New Year.
Greg
Many blogmasters only have guests supporting their own philosophies – you present the gamut of opinions.
Many thanks
I try my friend, and I thank you for the kind words of support.
Greg
Greg , could the Comex and GLD be using proxies to buy the real gold they put up for sale then recycle that same gold for the next round of market manipulation? In this way they do not lose any of their gold reserves and so PMs can be held low indefinitely.
Ross,
The Chinese and their markets are going to challenge that theory.
Greg
Greg
Thank you so much for you enlightened columns. ..my favorite is your Friday weekly wrap up.
You are an integrous man…..the voice of reason. God bless you.
You made my day Diane. Thank you.
Greg
I have always been in the hyperinflation camp. I thought the government would print unlimited amounts of money since they have a “printing press.” I studied what was in the recent spending bill that Congress passed. One provision was cuts to multi-employer union pension funds. If they are willing to cut pensions, maybe we are headed for default instead of hyperinflation. Rick said the money printing really hasn’t helped much and I agree with that. You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink, as the saying goes.
There’s too many variables out there for anyone to predict how things will play out. Gold higher, gold lower…who knows? nobody. Interesting to listen to different views, I’m rooting for gold. Personally, I don’t think China holds as many dollar reserves as claimed. I would think China has been dumping dollars quietly…spending spree around the globe. And it’s no secret they’ve been hoarding gold. How much longer can oil stay low? It has to go up or banks can’t survive, and with rising oil comes rising gold.
I don’t think that anybody can confidently predict what might happen next year. So what I propose to do today is something far more modest. I want to look into some of the key events of 2014 and think of them as vectors with a specific direction and magnitude. I want to look in which direction a number of key actors (countries) “moved” this year and with what degree of intensity. Then I want to see whether it is likely that they will change course or determination. Then adding up all the “vectors” of these key actors (countries) I want to make a calculation and see what resulting vector we will obtain for the next year. Considering the large number of “unknown unknowns” (to quote Rumsfeld) this exercise will not result in any kind of real prediction, but my hope is that it will prove a useful analytical reference.
Via The Vineyard Of The Saker blog,
GREG;
Zbigniew Brzezinski: Without Ukraine Russia ceases to be empire, while with Ukraine – bought off first and subdued afterwards, it automatically turns into empire…(…) the new world order under the hegemony of the United States is created against Russia and on the fragments of Russia. Ukraine is the Western outpost to prevent the recreation of the Soviet Union.
pfi
What Does a Currency Collapse Look Like?
It can accurately be stated that a lot has been written and rehearsed by the federal government on the topic of the effects of a currency collapse and its subsequent impact on society. NORTHCOM, DHS and FEMA as well as other federal entities have practiced for this eventuality. In each and every scenario, the facts remain the same, human beings and society follows a very predictable pattern of decline when the currency of the day collapses.
When George Soros pulled his money from the S&P 500 and from Bank of America, Citibank and JP Morgan, all Americans should have sat up and taken notice. Generally, when the currency collapses, a stock market crash is right on its heels. Because of the repeal of Glass-Steagall, a banking meltdown will immediately occur following the collapse of the stock market because since Clinton’s presidency, banks are now allowed to loan money for investment in the stock market and for down payments for homes. It was irresponsible of Congress to repeal Glass-Steagall, because it made surviving an economic Armageddon a near impossibility just as it did during the 1929 crash.
In a currency collapse, your life savings will be wiped out and this is why on November 16th, the G20 declared that your bank account is not money. This put your account in last place in terms of FDIC compensation, and since the FDIC only has about 1% of the money needed to cover a complete collapse, you will never see a dime from the FDIC.
Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy demonstrated that gas stations will be bone dry within two days following a complete collapse. Subsequently, commerce will not move and this includes food. If you are on vacation, you may not make it home. On the second day following a currency collapse, being on the road will be a risky endeavor because of other desperate motorists who will lie in wait to rob other motorists of essential supplies and resources.
With no available fuel, the grocery and drug stores will be empty within one to two days. There will be no food to be had except for that which is decaying in your refrigerator and that in which you can beg, borrow and steal from your neighbors who will also be begging, borrowing and stealing. from your other neighbors. If you have an adequate food and water supply, you better have an adequate gun and ammo supply in order to defend your assets. And when will you sleep? The protection of your critical assets is a 24/7 proposition. Therefore, having a cooperative survival plan is critical. EVEN IF YOU ARE AWARE OF WHAT IS COMING, IF YOUR NEIGHBORS ARE STILL ASLEEP, YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN!
Without gas, people will stop going to work. Corporations will disappear overnight. Hurricane Katrina showed America that the police cannot be expected to stay on the job more than 48-72 hours as they will be home protecting their families and foraging for food and water like everyone else. The emergence of former police, now operating as gangs, will become common in an effort to secure the products which will ensure survival. Therefore, when your home is under attack, there will nobody to call. Everyone will be on their own.
+1 Al…it is the only way out. Survival of the fittest.
allen ols,
You state that the “G20 declared that your bank account is not money”. Not totally correct. The G-20 bail-in agreement is referring to only to uninsured deposits, not to insured deposits. Insured deposits are still protected by the law of each government. So no, insured deposits are “still money”.
Many people seem to be wrong regarding bail-ins. Insured depositors have not been a part of any of the past bail-ins or any current bail-in plan that I have found. All the bail-ins that have taken place such as was the case in Iceland and Cyprus, have not included insured deposits. The lone exception that I found was Iceland which did not protect foreign deposits. Also out of all the bail-ins plans that I have read, none of them included insured deposits. Some even state that insured deposits are protected. And most these bail-in plans are nothing more than just discussions or unofficial papers.
And the FDIC has the authority to borrow from the Treasury as much as it needs to cover insured deposits. Also the FDIC only has to make up for any SHORTFALL when it comes to insured deposits. So for example when a bank fails that has $50 billion in insured deposits, the FDIC does not have to come up with $50 billion dollars. The FDIC only has to make up the shortfall which is a much smaller amount. Usually it is only a few percent of total insured deposits. And more than half of the deposits in banks are not even FDIC insured.
Allen, based on your “doomsday”scenario above, gold and silver will be for the most part, worthless. I am correct?
JMiller,
Your narrative on “Insured Deposits” and “Bail Ins” is unrealistic.
You will do more harm than good by espousing those beliefs you have here. Anyone who follows your logic will be worse, not better, off.
You do not have the wisdom nor the full knowledge of what will transpire in the future.
It is in my summation…..dangerous to participate in their fiat game. The rules are not fixed and are susceptible to change at whim. If you wish to live under the premise of a roll of the dice, then please continue.
SIG,
Just stating the facts as they are. You do not like it, well that’s too bad.
More specifically it is your interpretation that remains the problem.
You continue to remain black and white.
That is your bad luck.
The world is many shades of grey!!!
Allen,
We are so fortunate are we not, that the man behind the removal of Glass-Steagall provisions that protected depositors, did not take the Chairman of the FED seat when offered to him.
Stand up Mr Lawrence Summers. The Alumni recognises the work you have done to enrich those that have and continue to leach off society.
The poet in me just came out. Who needs a crystal ball to read the writings on the wall ?
Hi Greg. Oh no, I don’t bet against Willem Middelkoop. For years I am sure of the crash of currencies. Thing is that Willem Middelkoop on national TV doesn’t speak outright, and I regret that. He doesn’t want to be the guy to advice people to take their money (excuse me ‘currency’) out of the banking and currency system. He was a reporter at a Dutch financial TV station. He left there, and started an investment fund. On the internet he says he is careful with his statements when he is on national TV as a guest. As I can’t see 810 dollar gold, and if I could I wouln’t act on it, as it could be a very wrong gamble. I just want to learn and see in which scenario mister Ackerman sees that. Beginning of 2009 Bob Prechter called for 6 dollar silver, I couldn’t see that either, but I try to understand the scenarios in which they see that, trying to get my mind around it, as it became my hobby to understand as much I can, whether it’s probable or not. I am an entrepeneur as from my 16th, and was sleeping well with the safety of savings accounts. The beginning of 2008 I got a hunch, and first time ever I started to investigate the system, and became 100% convinced of not being in currenciy anymore. I started to reposition. Then the crash came, but fortunately the sytem didn’t implode then. Bob Prechter, the beginning of 2009, called for 6 dollar silver in a deflationary environment. I didn’t buy that, and so far that panned out. Money is liberty and I felt forced to become a gambler with that, which I hated. What I meant to say is that I have to go full steam to keep my father not leave his position, which he executed on my advice, as I find it all very interesting, I educate myself, at the same time to keep him on board. As for years the imminent crash is forcasted, which gives many the illusion, including my dad, they have it under control, as the crash didn’t come yet. As far I understand the manipulation of PM’s (GATA, Bix Weir, Ted Butler) they could have prevented the run up to 1900 dollar gold, and 48 dollar silver. It went up, and then it came tumbling down. I wonder they chose that scenario to orchestrate a back away from PM’s and so on, just to prolong the inevitable they planned. Politicians are allways run by the big capital behind the scenes, and they are masters in keeping up the confidence in whatever they want us to believe, as it’s all propaganda selling lies. I didn’t like Barack Obama when he came up ‘change, yes we can’ , he didn’t mention ‘change, yes we can, but we don’t, as we are just replaying history people’.
It’s like the weathermen forecasting severe rain every day, for which you take your embrellar with you. But after hundreds of times of wrong predictions you leave your embrellar at home. Then one day you get caught by a massive rain shower. To me currencies are the left behind embrellar. The powers that be are the propaganda masters, and the severest criminals walking this earth, and they are more clever than anyone thought, don’t underestimate the opponent as they say. The daily things I eat which are tenable I pile up, continuously renewing them every week when I consume them. That gives plenty months to eat, a precaution which cost nothing. I think the whole coming crash is planned from the start, going back to 1913 (and before that, the Silver Wars and so on) when they founded the private Federal Reserve, dumbing the people down to think it really was federal. The longer it takes, the more they can fleece the people of curency, converting it into tangible things. The powers that be have more money they ever need, but by far it’s not only the wealth, they love, the manipulation game I think they love even much more, seeing the public as flies, giving them an adrenalin addiction to feel like ruling Gods of some kind, the allmighty clever ones. In 2012 there were predictions of the end of the world. Well, I think we are all a witness of the end of the world as we know it. What kind of world comes next is the trillion dollar question. Decadency goes before the fall. Many died for liberty, democracy, and then the attention gets drawn away ‘Idols, and so on. History repeats, and they who studied it are doomed to witness the replay. Greed is everywhere. Homes are a necessity, just shelter. You want stable or even deflating home prices, but people were also led by greed, to become rich with something they can’t do without. It would be sort of the same to make bread an ever inflating price. As the saying goes ‘people get the government they deserve’. When the whole thing collapses, and sound money returns one way or the other, then the cycle starts all over again when the collapse becomes long ago history again, as they will say again ‘this time is different’. The powers that be pass ‘their knowledge and criminal skills’ on. I am 50 now, retired at 36, had a wonderfull adventurous life so far, having no children, so I am not afraid to die. My life long I received thought visions from the spirit world, which co-assisted me to get where I am. I only began to realize that 10 years ago when supernatural experiences began to grow in size, I looked back on my life and saw the trail during my life, realizing it, as I allways assumed I had a wonderful intuition. When I was 18, I felt to invest in silver, but didn’t execute it, but I allways remembered the strange strong feeling, which I began to understand a few years ago. When they talked about the euro 25 years ago I got a thought vision of a very dark cloud, and a feeling of a lot of trouble, but did nothing with that. When I was 23, I went to Belgium for guns, for burglary. In Holland, guns are not allowed. In Belgium I bought a Riot gun, and a Marlin .22 semi automatic rifle. When I was at the gunshop I got a thought vision of riots and fires in the Streets, so I bought an huge amount of ammo, a big box full of it, well over a thousand rounds, which I obviously didn’t need for a possible burglar. A year later I was a couple of months with my boat away, through France to the Med. coastlines. In Holland there came an extra severe law against fire arms, my dad knew where I had them, and threw them away, when I was away for months with my boat. I didn’t replace them, which I regret by now. Now in Belgium you can only buy them if you are Belgium, as you have to ID on that, which was not the case back then. When I saw the riots in Greece in 2010, I saw myself back in that gun shop. Now I regret not having these firearms anymore. I began to understand where that hunch was coming from, the beginning of 2008 to investigate the system. Thank heavens for the internet. I am a down to earth guy Greg, and the paranormal visions which began to increase as from 2003 I saw as a You Tube Channel, not living with it at all, just absorbing the whole thing. The spirit world gave a sort of picture. Jesus Christ was just an ordinary man, no miracles, just advocating against the views of the Church Fathers, the Rulers at the time, which got him executed, nothing new in history and present times. According all these ‘visions’ reincarnation exists, as they showed JFK was the spirit who once occupied the physical body of the man known in history as Jesus Christ. I am not religeous, and saw the whole thing as a National Geographic kind of thing. But when I started to investigate the system I tumbled on the story of JFK signing executive order 11110, meaning that he wanted to make silver money again. That draw my attention. If the spirit/reincarnation thing is true, I could see the spirit of Jesus Christ (JC) reincarnating with a family fitting to the ideas of the powers to be. I could see how JFK went against his milatary (Industrial complex for which Eisenhower warned) to not go nuclear on Russia in the Cuba Crisis, as the milatary were right they could have defeaten the Russians at the time. Once in office JFK began to think for himself and signed executive order 11110, beginning to make silver money again. The powers behind the scenes understood their choice for JFK went sour, and manipulated an instrument to murder him, the instrument being Oswald. It’s a piece of cake to subtle surround someone with brainwashing influences, executing the thing never knowing he was guided/manipulated, by which the powers behind the scenes stayed out of sight. Propaganda machines everywhere, if you advocate conspiracies they send you to a psychiatrist or you get ridiculed, or whatever. I am not afraid to die, as I feel the spirit world……no God or Devil, neither heaven or hell. Belief systems are the biggest propaganda machine ever, divide and rule resulting in religeous wars, among all other kind of wars………..as bankers took it over from the religeous rulers, like Rothschild said ‘give me the monopoly of the money system, and I don’t care who make the rules. So, as far I know JC did come back, but it was never realized he was JFK, saving the world from a nuclear blast, and signing executive order 11110, to make silver money again, to avoid Evil forces to enslave the world. The world is not arranged by one single allmighty God, the world are the people, and they just repeat their history. Propaganda which makes us believe it’s in the hands of an Allmighty God makes people passive in taking control of the world themselves. There are plenty of physical worlds in the endless universe, but this one world I guess is the most primitive of all, looking into history and the repeat of it till this very day. Whenever a JC or a JFK character enters the stage, they get killed, nothing new under the sun, just a repeat of the same cycle. In 2001 or something in Holland an honest guy, Pim Fortuyn, arose to become the MP (minister-president), like JFK he got shot by an Oswald kind of guy, before he went into office. Lies rule this world, power corrupts, so far just a repeating cycle like the seasons of the year. I am not afraid to die, but I hope for our world that Gerald Celente might be wrong ‘if everything fails, they take you to war’, lets hope not a big nuclear bang. Lets hope one day love and honesty might rule this world, as that would bring the acceleration to prosperity beyond the belief, a very efficient world it could be, science would skyrocket, and building Ufo’s or whatever a piece of cake, but we are a very long way from that, as till that time positivity is. the only thing we have’. I think we live in exciting times, witnessing a great piece of future history. Lets hope one day people learn to live in piece, love and honesty…..Some 25 years ago I visited the USA a couple of times, wandered around through several states by car, and I just loved it. At the time the USA was the number one place to be in the world. The USA lost that position, which is a pitty. But still, an alternative media educating on the system you practically don’t see over here, as the USA was once the most free place of the world. May the view of the founding fathers of America one day go viral in this world…….., but as said we are a long way from that. When I started this post I didn’t plan it to be this long.
Thanks again Greg for all you guys out there.
I am sorry but I am with Dr. Paul Graig Roberts.
This is a rigged game and for that reason to try and analyze the future based on charts and the like is a futile effort.
We are on the cusp of a total rewrite of the world economic system. Nothing will be the same 5 years from now.
Fiat currencies will be very different. Valuation of precious metals will be very different and much much higher.
Mining will again be a profitable industry and the world will be a very different place.
Society will be struggling with the reality that it allowed itself to be lulled to sleep while the world was moving quickly towards the precipice of chaos.
Those of us that are now taking the time to prepare will be seen in a different light than we are today.
To fail to plan is to plan to fail.
I will stick withLudwig Von Mises:
“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved”
I don’t know when he made that statement but he died in 1973. Obviously the crisis did NOT come sooner as the wold has not abandoned the credit (debt) expansion. It is still out there. When it happens and real panic sets in all asset classes will rapidly find their true value. The US$ and everything denominated in it, ZERO. The “wealth” created by the debt bubble will not disappear but be repriced in GOLD and SILVER.
Rick Ackerman was always a respected deflationist. But in an article in april 2011 he changed his mind to being an hyperinflationist:
http://www.rickackerman.com/2011/04/at-last-a-hyperinflation-argument-that-persuades/
Rick changed his mind because of an article by FOFOA:
http://fofoa.blogspot.nl/2011/04/deflation-or-hyperinflation.html
I remember, because I was following Rick Ackerman for a while at the time, and because of Rick’s post I noticed FOFOA for the first time. The theses at FOFOA’s site are worth checking out. Such as the Free-gold hypothesis. Be warned though, it can take some time to grasp all the concepts he puts forth. Even Jim Sinclair has referenced to FOFOA on occasion (http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/05/13/free-gold-the-end-game-now-in-process/)
So has Rick Ackerman now changed his mind back to being a deflationist again?
I know, I know…deflation and hyperinflation are not so far apart
(it’s more like two sides of the same coin: both are not indicative for a healthy ecomomy and you need deflation before the Central Banks start printing like crazy).
“I remember, because I was following Rick Ackerman for a while at the time”……… I also spent much time on his site and with commenters. I also remember the article and his abrupt change at the time………….. The ability to change and continue learning is good for all of us. Just takes humility. Not much of that these days.
I agree, that is true. But is it noteworthy nonetheless.
First, Happy New Year and many thanks for your tireless work. Second, you have so many great interviews with individuals who are intelligent and wise in their thinking and beliefs. I think what these varied views tell us is that no one of these individuals is right. So many strings have been pulled, so many shannanagins have been acted out and so many lies have been told that no one individual has the answer to what, when or even how this is all going to play out. We have never been here before and therefore have absolutely no way of telling what will actually happen or what we need to do to prepare.
Prayer, get your life in order, fill your pantry, learn to garden, invest in tools, a little gold/silver, a little cash, educate, educate, educate yourself and family on doing for yourself. Use common sense. General tips for hard times, good times, or times like these..uncertain times.
We certainly would not be in these circumstances if individuals like you, Greg had been allowed to grow and flourish , investigate and report to the American public what has been going on and continues to go on by just doing your job in the mainstream media. We must all be greatfull that you took your time and invested your money to produce and present USAWatchdogdotcom to the American public to keep us informed, thanks again for a job well done in 2014. Wishing you continued success and growth in 2015 and beyond.
John
Thank you John for the comment.
Greg
Greg: Thank you for this terrific website. I appreciate all the hard work you do every week to get the guests that you do, and then pick their brains so that we can all be as informed as possible. I say 2014 was a banner year for USA Watchdog and I am looking forward to who and what you’ll be sharing with us in 2015!
Who says great journalism is dead? It never died. You just can’t find it in the mainstream media anymore.
Len
Thank you Len!!
Greg
Hi Greg
I have been following you for years and the majority of your interviews are brilliant. But this one was a complete waste of time. This guy is saying paper is good!!! You cannot be serious!!! One cannot print paper to infinity and then have the view, the US DOLLAR WILL BE SAFE!!
Move against the United States: Russia advises EU to phase out the TTIP:
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fdeutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de&edit-text=
An excerpt:
“Russia has presented a startling proposal to overcome the tensions with the EU: The EU should renounce the free trade agreement with the United States TTIP and enter into a partnership with the newly established Eurasian Economic Union instead. A free trade zone with the neighbors would make more sense than a deal with the US.”
It would break my hart to see the US – EU alliance break up.
But with regard to content, the Russian proposal makes sense. The TTIP is a very very bad deal. Period. It would enable the oligarch interests to insulate themselves from any accountability.
Not only the citizens of the EU, but also the citizens of the US should oppose the TTIP.
So the Russian proposal makes sense.
The only thing that is truly bitter about it, is that this would break up the long-standing alliance between the EU and the US. But then again, if this is what it takes to disinfect ourselves from the rot of the oligarchs and the oligarch interests, then so be it. To continu like this without altering course, would be the way to certain doom. If the EU would reject the TTIP and join the Eurasian Economic Union, maybe the sheeple would finally wake up. In any case, this would do more than raise a few eyebrows.