Chaos Does Not Lead to Democracy

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Looking around the Middle East you can find turmoil and conflict almost everywhere you turn.  Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Jordan, Syria, Oman and Egypt have all been caught up in a fire storm of anti-government protests.  Some appear to be mostly peaceful, such as the pro-democracy movement in Egypt; and some are descending into bloody civil conflict, such as Libya.  The multiple revolutions unfolding in the Middle East are really just getting started.  Even in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the smell of revolution is in the air and on the Internet.  Organizers in the Kingdom are calling for “DAY OF RAGE.”  Saudi King Abdullah is so worried he recently announced $37 billion dollars in subsidies and giveaways.  That’s enough to pay everybody in Saudi Arabia around $1,500 each.  Some look at it as a bribe to encourage citizens not to protest.   (Click here to read more.)  If Saudi Arabia falls, war will surely follow.

This changing of the guard across the Middle East will be much more impactful to the rest of the world than the fall of the Berlin Wall.  The main reason is oil.  The Middle East produces most of the world’s petroleum.  If supplies are curtailed and shipping lanes are cut, the world could plunge into economic ruin.

 It took a little more than 2 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall to collapse the Soviet Union.  I look for the same pace of change in the Middle East.  The first domino to fall was tiny Tunisia, followed by mighty Egypt with a population of more than 80 million.  Egypt has an up-to-date army outfitted with the latest U.S. made weapons.  After Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak stepped down, the military took control of the country. A writer at Foreignpolicy.com recently described the fall of Mubarak this way, “I wish I could be there today, in solidarity with the thousands of young and old Egyptians, to celebrate the demise of his dreadful regime. But what we are witnessing is more than the end of a government — it is nothing less than the birth of a new liberal order in Egypt. And that’s not only good news for the beleaguered citizens of Egypt, but also the United States and Israel.”  (Click here to read the complete Foreignpolicy.com post.)

History tells us consistently that big revolutions do not directly lead to democracy.  After the French Revolution in 1789, there was mostly crisis and conflict.   Napoleon took control 10 years later (1799), and eventually became emperor.  His reign was bloody, and he took France to war many times until his last battle in 1815—Waterloo.   The Russian Revolution of 1917 was another one of history’s grand upheavals; it produced Communism and Vladimir Lenin.  Russia is still without a bona fide democracy today.  (The American Revolution is one of the few that directly went to democracy.)  

Earlier this month, Harvard history professor Niall Ferguson, wrote a stinging Op-Ed cover story in Newsweek dismantling President Obama’s foreign policy in Egypt.  Here’s part of what Ferguson said recently on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” program, “. . . I want to emphasize the risks being run in the region. If you look at history, and I am a historian, most revolutions lead not to happy, clappy democracies but to periods of internal turmoil and also periods of terror.  And they also lead to external aggression, because the simplest way to mobilize people who are not very well educated like Egypt is to point to the alleged enemy within and then of course the enemy abroad.  The scenarios the Israelis are looking at involve a transition not to some kind of peaceful and amicable democracy but to a Muslim Brotherhood dominated regime which then peruses an aggressive policy towards Israel.  This is not a zero possibility scenario.  This is a high probability scenario, and as far as I can see the President is not considering it.”  

Ferguson also points out Mr. Obama is one of the least experienced Presidents in history, when it comes to foreign policy.  Ferguson characterized Obama’s handling of the Egyptian revolution as a “flip followed by flop followed by flip.”  The “Morning Joe” crew tried to counter Professor Ferguson but was totally out-gunned and out-classed.  Please watch the entire video below:    

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Comments
  1. Lew

    Idealists make very poor leaders. They assume too much, are typically egotistical, and are incompetent in the end. The ultimate plan of the people behind this turmoil is not hidden, unless you rely on the network news to “inform” you. There is nothing good (for US) down the road, the short-sightedness of many administrations is coming to fruition.

    • Greg

      Thank you Lew MarkM and Art.
      Greg

  2. markm

    Hello Greg,

    The interviewers of Niall Ferguson on Morning Joe were emotionally invested in their opposing opinion. The lady was blatantly so. The messiah can do no wrong, while he does nothing!

    It is very easy to allow “group think” to become one’s religion; especially when one’s core beliefs are based on no belief system at all.

    Obama is rank amateur.

    markm

  3. Art Barnes

    Great video. Mr. Ferguson’s opinion about President Obama’a strategy
    of the Egyptian peoples topple of their president is spot on. Both
    the President and Ms. Clinton seemed to appear lost at what to do or say. Clearly, our President is most inexperienced in recent history.
    My son, who is a liberal, feels the President is “not a leader” in any true sense of the term. He informs me that his liberal friends are mostly not happy with the President and feel he is not strong enough and or does not have a clear vision for this time in history; I agree.

    Most of us know that the middle east will not turn to our type of system, I can’t see it happening with a country that is totally controlled by their religion – heck, they even stopped their protest for Friday’s prayers. I don’t remember that our founding fathers quit shooting the British because it was Sunday morning and thay had to be in church. Not to degrade the Egyptian’s cultural religion I simply point out that fact to support the theory that a culture so entwined with religion at every level, cannot and probably will not, separate itself from its religion long enough to become a secular government.
    Therefore, who rules the middle east after their people throw out their “squatter kings” is up in the air, but one thing I believe is it won’t be pretty, and in mind it won’t be secular.

    Lastly, your comment on the Saudi government “bribing” the people with more money was a good one. But in this day of Twitter and Facebook I can’t see it helping in the long run even if they all drive around in a new Mercedes Benz. The worlds young are on the march and it will spread to Saudia Arabia with or without a bunch of bribes.

    Thank you for your blog and thank Mr. Ferguson for me, a learned gentleman who stands up against the MSM for truth.

    • David

      Populism,populism and more populism. Mr. Obama’s one central theme is to pander to the masses! This time it just happened to be the Egyptian masses. He fails to recognize the gathering threats to the western way of life, and has no clue what steps to take to secure our future. History is replete with examples of BRUTAL yet populist regimes that indulge in the same touchy feely speech making that we seem to get from Mr. Obama. Just pull up some speeches from men like Fidel Castro, Yugo Chavez, or even way back to Musilini. You will find them erily similar to those of President Obama with regard to flowery language and catchy phrases about freedom, the rights of the peoples etc. They are devoid of real statemanship, but full of “Love me lines”. Where have the Henry Kisingers of the world gone? Men with the intelect to study history and global relationships, to form workable strategies, and forge relationships to protect America’s interests abroad.

      The muslim world seems trained from birth to hate everyting America stands for. Force is not the only answer to that, but weakness invites agression. Mr. Obama and most of his liberal cronies seem to delight in exposing our weaknesses to the world. President Bush, for all of his flaws, was at least determined to show that America is not to be trifled with. Strength is the only thing most middle eastern cultures seem to understand. I will admit that it is a perenial challenge to balance what is humane and “right” with the need to protect our national interests abroad. It has always been a tough job,and many men have perished in the effort. Mr. Obama appears disinterested in doing anything that might look confrontational or proud. He is a “people pleaser”. Unfortunaely, conflict avoidance is the surest way to invite greater disaster at some point in the future in most relationships. I can only hope and pray that Mr. Obama finds his footing very quickly in order that the world can be spared a truly horrible war. Make no mistake about it, the world WILL go to war over oil if need be! We must become more active and persuasive abroad now if that is to be averted. If the mobs set Saudi Arabia on fire, the world will burn with them. By then it will be far too late to find peaceful solutions. The entire developed world will suddenly be in the same postion as Japan in the 30′s and 40′s, desperately trying to secure access to energy resources. Japan chose to do so forcefully. If Mr. Obama can get with the program, perhaps we will have the option to choose more wisely. Either way, I expect we will have to get our hands very dirty very soon if we are to preserve our own way of life which is rightly or wrongly dependent on the continued flow of OIL. It is quaint to think that the muslim world will empower governments that will play nicely, not commit genocide, and continue with business as usual, but I fear that is the absolute least likely scenario. The world is FUBAR at the moment, and getting more so by the day! We need real vision, intelectual strength, and leadership in the White House, and we needed it YESTERDAY!

  4. Mike

    I follow many blogs, including this one. Gerald Celente’s work predicted much of this stuff several years ago – so there are no surprising revelations here. Before Celente and others appeared on the scene, the great American [now deceased] longshoreman, thinker and writer ERIC HOFFER helped students understand the dynamics behind mass movements in his brilliant book: THE TRUE BELIEVER. Read that and listen to Gerald Celente and you will not be surprised much anymore.

    Individual freedom is the only truse answer. Groupthink and a tribal mentality is to be feared at all times – and that applies to dedicated Republicans and Democrats as well as to Christian and Muslim zealots. Thank you.

    • Greg

      Thank you Mike, John and Dogster.
      Greg

  5. John Bernard

    We in the USA live in a world of make believe. Should what’s happening around the world start here no one will believe it. Richard Trumka wants to preserve his power by stating that there is no short term deficit problem in the USA. These government union riots are attempting to disrupt the rule of law and bring our nation to its knees. The public can’t seem to see the difference between industrial and public unions.

    Government unions should be destroyed, even FDR knew that today’s situation was intolerable. For these people to cloak themselves in democracy is ludicrous and edges us closer to civil war; which should be unthinkable but isn’t.

    The middle east is no example for us. Obama is completely at sea.

  6. dogster

    Any analysis outside a conspiracy theory of history is just so much white noise.

  7. Bob

    We have been in Chaos sense 9/11. We murder many poor innocence people, because of our Congress people not because of who sits in the white house. Blaming Obama is just smoke it’s the people in Congress who didn’t stop these useless wars, keep a eye on the bankers. The chaos overseas may be a plan move by this administration,we will never know,but it’s a big game changer. It’s like basketball, if you been playing zone to zone and not making in roads, you change to man on man and make the other side change out their players. If Mr. Obama gets most the troops home and stops, these useless wars good for him. The cost of oil will not matter, they will sale it and we will buy it from the local people who own it. The cost of oil will not be anything compared to useless wars and useless bankers.

    • Greg

      Thank you Bob and James M.
      Greg

  8. James M

    My my how the MSM talking heads hate when somone speaks the truth. I do not know whether any US foriegn policy since WWII has actually benefitted America. All our leaders do is intervene in the world where there are natural resources that US coporation wish to control. If we had simply never intervenied in the Middle East so US and British coporations could dominate petroleum production, sales and prifits then maybe we would not right now be 100% addicted to cheap oil. Maybe we would have been drilling more in Alaska instead of sending billions in oil purchases and foriegn aid (read as bribes) to US controlled dictators and creating enemies worldwide that may come home to roost far worse than 9/11 ever was in the future. Maybe we would have 2-3 times the ammount of nuclear power plants combined with coal burners and we could have been driving around in electric cars 20 years ago if not for the big oil lobby making obscene profits by keeping us hooked on the petrol addiction. No one can say what might have happened for sure or predict the future either but as far as I am concerned we have created our own enemys via foriegn policy because the foriegn policy is not directed at protecting America persay as it is to protect the bottom line of the conglomerates that own and run the US government. Cheap oil is great but as you frequent guest write Mr Kunstler can tell you there is only so much of it and it is running out as I write this. This is all just staged fanfare to give the US any excuse to ride in under the false banner of being humanitarian and creating democracy at gun point( http://www.infowars.com/obamas-humanitarian-conquest-of-libya/ ). Even if we send thousands of American soldiers to die and kill millions of more people in the region and we controll all the oil in the region, if you think for one minute the coporations that run our government are going to sell you said oil for any type of discount then your a fool. I do not have the answers but meddling in foriegn governments and wars are simply not the way to go about it. If you have kids at the age of 13-17 I feel sorry for you because I would bet they will be drafted into WWIII because it is already starting. Sorry to be a pessimist but I am a realist and big on reading history and it always repeats itself when people forget or are ignorant to how much it sucked before when millions of people were dying in the last great wars. The elites have a whole new generation of dumb kids for cannon fodder and they will use them to promote their agendas. Best of luck and may God help us all. James

  9. M SMITH

    Greg, N. Ferguson was dead right about Obama. Arabs & Americans have been lied to, don’t take my word on it, just watch as the elites play out their game to push oil to $150/200 a barrel & gas to $5/7/10 a gallon. Watch as the dollar becomes worthless sooner than we think. Watch as food will be in the stores,but no one can pay for it. China has been dumping dollars for resources world wide,what happens if the oil stops flowing from Saudi Arabia? $150/200 oil? The dollar collapse? Yes Greg, I think this is a well planned by the PEs & they have a lot more to do to complete their plans!

    • Greg

      M Smith,
      I think your price target of $150/200 is on the mark. Thank you.
      Greg

  10. Mitchell Bupp

    Hi Greg, You words are true! There is no doubt that revoultion does not mean you will end up free.

  11. Bruce

    Despite the provcative rendering of all of North Africa and the Middle East in flames, it’s really only recently in Libya that we have seen serious armed conflict. Despite some violence, Cairo looked more to me like Woodstock than a violent revolution. Changes in power can come about with minimal violence (South Africa, Chile, Soviet Union and others). The chaos occurs when you have megalomaniacs like GoDaffy ( Batista, Somoza, etc.) who refuse to leave when the party is long over. I think King Abdullah is well advised to make changes now and not wait for it to hit the fan. President Obama would be well advised to consider Russian history and observe the experience of the Czar when there was considerable economic dislocation and a ruler that insisted on perpetuating unpopular foreign wars. Change is in the air and that always makes people nervous, but it’s way too early to conclude that everything will end badly.

    • Greg

      Bruce,
      You make some good points here, but it is also way too early to conclude that everything will end well. Thank you for your comment.
      Greg

  12. Elihu E. O'Dowd

    The female anchor here proved over and over that she was an ObaMao supporter, and by her other ridiculous statements, that she didn’t have a clue to what the probable dangers were/are in this situation.

    I watched this video with total amazement, even knowing that the Lamestream Media supports ObaMao in everything he does! What is quite disconcerting to me about their very vocal and unwavering support of this current clueless administration, is the fact that so many of the ignorant and apathetic electorate in this country have no other means of receiving truth, and believe everything they hear from these ‘news’ clowns.

    Being fair, even FoxNews is beginning to look foolish in their assessment of many current events, by moving more and more to center(left?) on many issues. If this continues, where will the uninformed go for the truth of a matter?! Many (most) of the elderly (and I’m 68) will not, of their own initiative, mine out truth from the many available outlets such as USAWatchdog which do publicize the truth.

    I guess we’ll now have to wait until the Egyptian September elections to see the outcome, but my wager would be that the new president will be of the Muslim Brother bent…Then what?!

    Thank you.

  13. Mark

    What a pompous ass! What does he think that America has the power to direct events all over the world. Can you believe that he says that Bush had a grand strategy. The way he planned the Iraq adventure was so well done. Professor Ferguson is only interested in attention and puffing up his already overblown ego.

    • Greg

      Mark,
      Please do not come on this site and resort to name calling. If you disagree with Professor Ferguson, then please state clearly where you think he got it wrong. Thank you.
      Greg

      • Mark

        Greg,
        Ok. When I see the video I get both tone and the Professors expression and this is part (in fact most) of the message. I reacted to his tone and facial expression. Look at what the professor has to say. And I must say that I’m not a fan of our president but I won’t call him a name. The professor calls Obama’s reaction a flip. flop, flip without any evidence. You say he outgunned and outclassed the Morning Joe gang. How? He had nothing but his own opinion to offer. Then he criticizes Obama for not having a plan in contrast to GWB. Have we forgotten GBW grand plan for Iraq which was invade and figure it all out later.

        So you see why I ended up resorting to name calling. There is no discussion that respects my intelligence. The professor is not trying to inform or engage in genuine discussion in my view.

        Don’t you see that?

        Mark

        • Greg

          Mark,
          I saw Ferguson cite several current and historical references to back up his points. It looked to me, that nearly everyone on the MSNBC panel disagreed with him, but could not back up their point of view with a single fact. I know you are a loyal reader, and I appreciate you point of view. You see it one way and I see it another, and as I always say “Good men can disagree.” Thank you for the comment.
          Greg

  14. Nicole B

    Greg:
    What an outstanding guest to have on MSNBC!! It is clear by the utterly confused looks on everyone sitting at the roundtable that none of the MCNBC crew have even remotely considered the possibility that Niall may be right. None of them could come up with intelligent questions to ask the man! His brilliance made them all look mentally stunted. Thanks for bringing this to USA Watchdog…I would have never seen it otherwise.
    -N

    • Greg

      Thank you Nicole B. I also thought Ferguson was spot on, and very clear and easy to understand his points.
      Greg

  15. schweizer40

    I am a Vet of two wars, I agree, these wars after wwII were only to promote the Military/Industrial complex and the banks control of the worlds wealth. I have 39 grandchildren, I don’t want to see them used as fodder! I see a lot of bad stuff on the way, but I don’t see any place to hide. All we can do is to prepare as best we can, help each other and pray. God Bless all of you who see it coming, those that don’t we probably won’t be able to help.

    • Greg

      Thank you Schweizer40.
      Greg

  16. Jim in GA

    Mr. Ferguson’s comments coincide with many observers around the world, but the amazing thing is his article appearing in Time. Could it be that the MSM is beginning to awaken to reality instead of hope and change?

    • Greg

      Jim in GA.
      Good point.
      Greg

  17. Thomas Lee

    Glad I found this blog. Will surely put it on my daily reading list.

    I can’t find the link to the MSNBC interview though… was it taken down or am I just… well, dense? lol

    • Greg

      Thank you Thomas Lee. Scroll down to the bottom of the article and click on the video box and it will play the entire MSNBC interview with Ferguson.
      Greg

  18. Rob

    Hi Greg!

    The truth is God is using these elites to create chaos to bring the world to the end game in Revelations.

    His whole purpose for this world and its inhabitants is to raise up sons like His son Jesus Christ. He is about to orchestrate His final act of this age called the 7 year tribulation followed by a year of wrath. During that time most of the world will chose who they follow.

    The Lord uses vessels of honor and dishonor to fulfill His will. Here is a perfect example. The Lord is allowing a prince(satan)of Daniel 9:27 to move an elite banking cartel to bring this whole financial mess to a head to drive the world to a covenant with many the prince wants to be the spiritual head of the end time beast of Revelation. Look for things to get much worse with another possible 9/11 type event that will involve tactical nukes. This along with the fiat currency collapse should bring this covenant by fall of this year. This will be the beginning of the tribulation. The prince will then use this covenant through the UN, IMF, along with the central banks of the world to attempt to rule mankind through commerce.

    By the middle(3 1/2 years) of the tribulation an electronic system will be in place in most of the developing and all of the developed world to control all transactions by virtue of an imbedded chip just under the skin.

    I suggest we all dust off our Bibles and start reading Revelation and for that matter John and any other book in there the Lord leads you to read cause you are about to live through His last chapters of this age.

    If you think I am kidding get on you-tube and type in “Positive ID” and check out a few ideas some people have instore for all of us who like being played bye this Pied Piper.

    Some will laugh at this, some will think about it, and a few will take this seriously. Those who want more instruction go to our web site unleavendbreadministries and begin a journey with manifold blessing now and on the otherside of this life!

    In CHRIST! Rob

  19. Eugene C. Holloway

    Democracy does not necessarily lead to Individual freedom and liberty. What leads to those ideals is a government which is strictly limited to protection of the individual’s right to be free from force, including government coercion unrelated to protecting individuals from force. The Athenian democracy demonstrated that without protection of individual rights a tyranny of the majority is likely. Once unlimited government is accepted, once unlimited taxing is accepted, and once unlimited mandates are accepted, it matters little whether the government is a republican form such as we have now or a pure democracy; society will deteriorate into a war of all against all in which the political class will control the population by contriving groups and pitting one against the other. It thus becomes a war of all against all in a battle over which will benefit more from the resources the State confiscates from the other. In those circumstances, the incentives that keep the productive people producing will disappear and rather than having a society of producers and people chasing the American Dream, we will have a society of cannibals out to devour their neighbors. The movie of Atlas Shrugged comes out on April 15. Read the book first.

  20. M. Jones

    Your statement:
    “The American Revolution is one of the few that directly went to democracy.”
    Can you show one place in either the constitution or the declaration of independence where the founding fathers used the word “democracy”?
    You have joined in with the rest of DC and continue to tell the lie that this country was founded as a “democracy”.
    It was founded as a REPUBLIC.
    Democracies were well know to the founding fathers as self-destructive and incompatible with a free society.
    One need only study the writings of the founders to learn the truth. If that is too taxing, then educate yourself with the writings of Professor Walter Williams, Professor Emeritus of Economics at George Mason University.
    Please go back and learn US history and the writings of the founding fathers before attempting to write any further articles. And don’t use current dictionaries. Find an old one from 1900.
    And just to try and help you out, read:

    http://www.1215.org/lawnotes/lawnotes/repvdem.htm

    My late father-in-law (Army Air Corps Officer 1942 to 1946) gave me a copy of the above (it’s the original from his Officer training).

    If you are still of the mind that this country was founded as a Democracy after reading the above, then I wish you well in your “democracy”. For you will certainly live to experience all the government you support.

    • Greg

      M. Jones,
      You are correct that America was founded as a REPUBLIC. In a republic the people elect representatives. In the U.S. Congressmen and Senators are elected by the people. The founding fathers only allowed white land owners to vote when the REPUBLIC was first founded. Now, whites, women, blacks and many others (regardless of land ownership) can legally vote. That means, over the last couple of centuries, the REPUBLIC has evolved into more of a democratic republic. Democracy means “rule of the people.” I was not trying to give a history lesson, but point out the people in the Middle East will likely not be in charge when all this shakes out. I am sorry you missed the point of the post. I also resent you accused me of lying to my readers. Your comment makes you look like a condescending jerk.

  21. maria oceanna

    Obama more inexperienced than GW Bush? Nah—–
    This Egypt thing took them all by surprise, because the current world leaders think life is still about the bankers and money. This is about liberty and nothing left to lose.

    The uprising is a joy…and I wish them success. The WI situation is also great progress…Americans finally smell the coffee and are waking up.

    Predictions on the future by the past are lame….the world has changed. These people all have computers and know what they live in, as does the Chinese population. Rock on, Egypt, Libya and the rest…..
    hopefully we will join you.

    • Greg

      Maria,
      The Middle East is turning violent and bloody. I hope this is not what you are advocating here. You are right about the bankers. They have already screwed is all with OTC Derivatives in the hundreds of $trillions.
      Greg

  22. Jan

    So many of the young people of the Middle East are college educated, I do not beleive they will trade the dictators they are running off for extreme Muslim fanatics rulers. I admit to being pretty naive on the subject, but I do not see how those who want to rule with an iron fist will force people who have shown such courage in turning out the dictators to go “live on the farm” again.

    They want what we all want, jobs and a chance to take care of their families and live free and without fear.

    • Greg

      I hope you are right Jan.
      Greg

  23. Chumbawamba

    I love these Israel lover zealots, always trying to turn the attention back to the poor beleaguered little nation. No, it’s not about the Egyptians and their successful toppling of a dictatorial douchebag, it’s about whether or not it’s good for Israel.

    Not only is this not good for Israel, it’s horrible. Israel is inherently part and parcel of each and every one of these insurrections. It is decades of pent up fury, kept potent by regimes subservient to Western imperial machinations and unresponsive to the will of the people.

    The most self-preserving thing the Israelies can do now is to start becoming REALLY friendly with the Palestinians and making them their new best friends, repenting for all their bad behavior and promising to turn a new leaf. Otherwise, when the unruly crowds finally make their way to Jerusalem, it’s not going to be an Arab regime they’ll be trying to topple.

    • Greg

      Chumbawamba,
      It is preposterous to blame Israel for all the ills of the Middle East. Is Israel perfect? No, but to say, ” Israel is inherently part and parcel of each and every one of these insurrections.” Is really waaaaaaaay over the top.
      Aren’t our Arab brothers responsible for at least some of the trouble in the Middle East? There is plenty of blame to go around.
      Greg

    • George

      Hey Chum,
      You wrote, ” It is decades of pent up fury, kept potent by regimes subservient to Western imperial machinations and unresponsive to the will of the people.” It reads like bad Islamofascist propaganda. Where would you put Iran with regards to responsiveness to the will of the people? Or with women’s rights? Am I missing something or are those the fault of Israel, too?

  24. iknowbetter

    That Obama has little or no foreign policy (FP) experience begs the question of who was the last president who was elected with foreign policy experience? One of the Texan Bushes? Clinton from Hope, Ark.? Reagan, an actor and California governor? Carter from Peanut Country? LBJ? Kennedy?

    It looks like Ike may be the latest with FP experience, since he actually prosecuted a war as General.

    Ike had no big surprises to deal with, yet he had some experience.

    Kennedy had the Russian missile crisis. Failure to predict?

    LBJ had no big surprises… other than a war he didn’t start was going badly.

    Nixon seems to have made inroads, aka China, yet now they are burying us in trade. Hmmm…. did he have any foreign policy experience before election? Yes, he was a crook. Many US allies are/have been crooks.

    Carter had a huge surprise with the Iranian revolution. Badly handled, but still a surprise.

    Bush 1 had a huge surprise when he realized taxes must be raised. And then, suddenly he had to deal with Saddam Hussein. Who trains you for that? He was the head of the CIA and didn’t know Iraq was going postal?

    Clinton had no serious foreign policy challenges, at least, not as serious as the current accounts. He was giving everything away, placating everyone he could. The grateful don’t make trouble. (Correct me if I remember wrongly.)

    Bush 2, who really didn’t want to deal with FP, had to deal with 911. His answer was invasion, war, and occupation. How effective has that been? And is that really foreign policy?

    So now that the Arab world is blowing up, would any of you like to be the presidential decisionmaker? You have no FP experience, either. Just like our last seven presidents.

    If you don’t accept Ike as the last president elected with foreign policy experience, try hard to accept Truman who came from Lamar Missouri and eventually (with nukes) ended WWII. Like others after him, he had the perfect, if not terrrible answer.

    Alas, everything needs perspective.

    ikb

    • Greg

      Thank you IKB. You make some good points here. Thank you for adding your perspective to this post.
      Greg

  25. Vess

    Forget the politics, everything is economics. ;-)

    Have you asked yourselves, why did the Arab countries riot exactly now? I mean, c’mon, the Mubarak regime wasn’t any different all these 30 years. How come that the people of Egypt hated it for 30 years – but did nothing until now? Why not a year ago? Or a year later?

    People don’t start a revolution because they hate their government. People start a revolution because they don’t have enough to eat. A nasty government will be hated but tolerated as long as its people’s basic needs are satisfied. The people of Egypt (and elsewhere) rose up because the food prices increased too much (mostly due to all the money printing going all over the world but mainly in the USA) and made their lives intolerable.

    Therefore, as long as the people in Saudi Arabia have enough to eat, they will keep it quiet. Call it a “bribe”, if you want, but that’s the reality.

    But oil prices can easily reach the $150-$200 without any Middle East oil shortages. The Fed with its money printing will see to that.

    • Greg

      Good points Vess. Thank you for joining the discussion.
      Greg

    • George

      Amen,

  26. horace manoor

    Niall Ferguson’s more like Obama than he admits. Where has Niall been as far as the Ivory Coast goes — a nation where most citizens are being deprived of their electoral victory? Where has Niall been as far as Zimbabwe goes — a nation where despite power-sharing, Mugabe’s still free to inflict terror on those who oppose him?

    One suspects that Niall, like Obama, gives token attention to such non-oil countries. Granted, Egypt itself produces little oil but it does wield influence in the Middle East, considering the Suez canal.

    Both Niall and Obama have learned from George Clooney, who professes interest in the inhabitants of Darfur, a region that happens to be swimming in oil. Yet Clooney shows no interest in the plight of Palestinians, just to take a random instance.

  27. Nigel Herbert

    I beg to differ

    Chaos can lead to democracy.

    What is happening in the Middle East right before us is the uprising of peoples who have been kept down for generations by dictators who have presided over police states in a deliberate attempt to retain wealth and power. But with information now freely available over the internet and the use of social networking sites the poor peoples of these countries realise that there is a better life without such despots.One by one they all will fall in time.

    When the dust settles , and elections are organised do you really think that these peoples will want to become religious states? Not in a million years. They will never accept any form of dictatorship
    by military or reigious leaders again. And the religion they practice will have no bearing on this direction. Look at what happened in China after the Tianamen square in 1989. Egypt will go the same way. It will open up its markets to generate more jobs , trade with all countries including the West and finally give its peoples the future they deserve.The West will invest in these peoples as it has in China , Japan , Vietnam , Korea , India and by doing so will help create jobs and a much better future.

    Why will this happen?

    Well right now we need them just as much as they need us

    The West is bankrupt. Take America – it is broke. If it was not
    for the fact that the US Dollar is the world`s currency it would
    have collapsed by now. Printing money is only buying time in the
    hope that the economy can recover. With the housing market dead
    on its feet and more bank losses on the horizon the US needs to find
    more markets for its goods and services to create jobs back home. By helping the countries of the east you start to help yourself. Europe is no different – it has huge debts and likewise needs to open up such markets to these peoples. By doing so , maybe , just maybe the West can recover in time – but only if we help those in need.

    • Greg

      Nigel,
      Point take but will it lead to democracy in the Middle East? If so, how long will it take? Those are the big unanswered questions. You do make some good points here, thank you.
      Greg

  28. Reader

    There was never any democracy in the first place. If democracy and elections were held now, the end result will be the people will choose Political Islam.

    This does not mean hatred of the west but it does mean increasing the distance from the west.

    In the global Age, this is now possible.

  29. Dave

    I don’t care about “democracy”, I just want liberty!
    Too much time is wasted on that term (that our founders loathed).
    As long as we & others have liberty & constitutional limits, pretty much all else falls into place.
    Btw, looks like gold will break another record today! ;)

  30. WarpLover

    We have a republic, not a democracy. A little dis-information? A little conditioning? Or just a mistake?

    • Greg

      Warplover,
      I don’t know what you are getting at but here’s part of what I wrote another reader about the republic/democracy question. You are correct that America was founded as a REPUBLIC. In a republic the people elect representatives. In the U.S. Congressmen and Senators are elected by the people. The founding fathers only allowed white land owners to vote when the REPUBLIC was first founded. Now, whites, women, blacks and many others (regardless of land ownership) can legally vote. That means, over the last couple of centuries, the REPUBLIC has evolved into more of a democratic republic. Democracy means “rule of the people.” I was not trying to give a history lesson, but point out the people in the Middle East will likely not be in charge when all this shakes out. I am sorry you missed the point of the post. I never engage in dis-information.
      Greg

      • WarpLover

        Rule of the people? You have got to be kidding!!! Let’s take the bail-out fiasco of 2008. A representative was quoted as saying that half of his constituents said no to the bail-out and the other half said hell no – yet it passed anyway.

        Like I said – dis-information. I could add “a redefinition of terms” and other phrases.

        Looks like Thomas Jefferson (read Illuminati) might get his worldwide “French Revolution” after-all, and most of the reason is because of how the people have been ignored, lied too, and corralled between velvet ropes and led to where the elite want them to be led. And you are helping.

        • Greg

          Warplover,
          I disagree and you are out of line with this idiotic charge. Have you read this site???
          Greg

  31. bean

    a look at a map of the middle east provides valuable insight. these protest aren’t about democracy. ask this: who stands to lose by the middle east implosion? russia? no, they have oil. china? no, they’re getting a sweet deal from chavez and putin. europe? well, heard something about a pipeline from russia. oh, and they get alot from libya too.
    and what about the good ole USA? chavez’ oil? ummm. mexico? hmmm. opec? uh yeah. beginning to see my drift? and is it coincidence that we have an oil crisis in the gulf followed by a drilling moratorium?
    i give it two weeks. thanks greg.

    • Greg

      Bean,
      Thank you for weighing in.
      Greg

      Bean,
      Thank you for weighing in.
      Greg

  32. UKguy

    Clearly their are very important international moves going on behind the curtains.

    Mrs Clinton’s visit to SE Asia recently, and certain parts of the Middle East are significant.

    The actions of Congress, by refusing to curtail spending, are pushing the Fed into gov’t debt purchases. Bernanke may be the hate figure, but for once, not the prime culprit.

    The refusal to cease spending is creating global liquidity, that sloshes about the planet seeking a home. Commodities is one home, and prices of commodities reflecting that liquidity are the prime spark that created the rioting in the first instance.

    It is significant that the majority of the nations rioting have in the past suffered at the hands of the IMF and debt re-scheduling, which has progressively destroyed living standards in those countries. The gap between the haves and have-nots is extreme…a bad omen.

    Most of the nations currently rioting were warned of the consequencies of this global liquidity and its inflationary consequences by Clinton in her recent tour. They were advised to go easy on protesters, make concessions.

    Then the US recalled ALL ambassadors to make plans.

    http://modernsurvivalblog.com/current-events-economics-politics/all-ambassadors-called-back-to-washington/

    And these are the objectives given…

    Some of the objectives of the QDDR

    * Creating an Under Secretary for Economic Growth, Energy and the Environment
    * Establishing a new Bureau for Energy Resources
    * Creating an Under Secretary for Civilian Security
    * Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security Affairs
    * Establish a Bureau for Counterterrorism
    * Establishing a Coordinator for Cyber Issues

    Does this sound like preperations for…?

    To proceed.

    Take a look at the other side of the globe. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

    http://www.sectsco.org/EN/#

    The Full Member States are, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan.

    States with Observer Status are, India, Iran, Mongolia, Pakistan.

    Dialogue Partners are, Belarus, Sri Lanka.

    The major players in this group are ALL accumulating Gold as rapidly as possible. China and India are accumulating Silver.

    In the last few days China began monetising silver, in addition to Gold, (by including silver in their nations formal reserves), and plans are afoot to follow with platinum.

    This article,

    http://www.eurasianet.org/node/62843

    explaines that an open Customs Union is planned for the near future, stretching from the Kazak/Chinese border through all the “Stans”, to the Russian Baltic Coast.

    History shows that once common customs is established, common currency, tax, financial structures, etc, follow.

    Additionally, from the East Caspian, through the “Stans”, Mongolia, into China, given the upward thrust of the Himalaya range, the area is incredibly rich in Rare Earths, Gold, Silver, PGMs, plus base metals, in fact a miners wet-dream! Both Russian and Chinese companies are heavily involved in mining Mongolia.

    This article explains natural competition between the players, but also note the plans for a NATO failure in Afghanistan. My impressions are that if terrorism can be handled, Afghan would then join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation…she is extremely rich in most commodities, China is already present, building contacts.

    http://www.eurasianet.org/node/62893

    You will note from the following link that Lithuania, which left the USSR and joined the Western (EU) boom-bust, who is now suffering under a rapidly contracting economy, and social unrest, migration of the young into other EU countries, and a fatal “Austerity” program created by the IMF/EU…debt slavery in perpetuity, is re-establishing relations with old USSR satelites

    http://portal.mfa.kz/portal/page/portal/mfa/en/content/news/nws2011

    The following is the Bios of some of the major players. Note where they were educated, and when!

    http://www.sectsco.org/EN/secretary.asp

    Well, that’s enough to tell the story…exploration of the SCO website yields some interesting information.

    So let’s mesh that in with the current picture.

    The Middle Eastern rioting is in nations suppying energy to the West.

    In many instances the deposed despots were USA, CIA placemen…puppets.

    Puppets don’t fall, they are pushed!

    Most of those nations, encumbered by despotism, have also had their economies ruined by past IMF actions.

    Clinton and the US Admin is very far from being an observer in this mess. Obama is a clown, a dumb placeman for the CFR. Clinton and the CFR are pulling the strings!

    The “other side of the world” knows this!

    Here is a prss release by Hecla, a major silver miner.

    http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=63202&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1532968&highlight=

    Tab down to “Metals Prices”. The prices obtained for the average of the past quarter must have been 20% to 30% above Comex and LBMA spot for the entire period! ! ! ! !

    This shows the magnitude of fraud in the western paper metals.

    Once silver reaches $36/oz, JPM OTC derivative kick JPM in the teeth. When Silver reaches $60/oz, JPM OTC derivatives crash the world.

    So China and India monetize silver!

    Are you following?

    Let’s look elsewhere…..

    Even Australia seek to exit the US $

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/miners-can-save-10pc-from-yuan-deals-anz/story-e6frg8zx-1226010357770

    And I reckon India is pissed because their recent purchase of gold from the IMF was an unallocated acount at the BIS. So, holding Observer Status at the SCO, she does a deal with China.

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/Bank-of-India-becomes-first-to-offer-trade-settlement-in-yuan/articleshow/7565143.cms

    Over the years, JPM, and Blythe Masters, have made enemies. Now some are surfacing… shown in the next two links :-

    http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/former-jpmorgan-executive-winters-starts-advisory-firm/?src=dlbksb

    http://www.coghlancapital.com/metalstrades

    And this old article shows why just about the entire world is pissed with the US.

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14996.html

    Keynes theories are dead.

    Monetarism is on the point of failure.

    All that is left is the Austrian school.

    The crack-up boom has started….

    War and hyperinflation follow. Was the US recall of all Ambassadors really in preperation for war?

    Well, consider this..

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cia-agent-caught-red-handed-aiding-pakistani-terrorism

    and this,

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_pakistan_feuding_spies

    Yup, the good old CIA is doing it’s part to blow up the world…

    Sigh!

    • Greg

      UKguy,
      I love it when you comment and many others do too. Thank you.
      Greg

    • George

      The CIA? What, you don’t think MI6 is playing too?

    • George

      I do like this part ‘Once silver reaches $36/oz, JPM OTC derivative kick JPM in the teeth. When Silver reaches $60/oz, JPM OTC derivatives crash the world.

      So China and India monetize silver!

      Are you following?”

      You sound like this is your element. and good analysis, thanks

  33. UKguy

    To George.

    Greetings ;-

    1) derivatives…

    Read this blog, and in particular the comments by “amber”.

    http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2011/02/wb-claim-reminder.html

    It adds weight to my previous link re Hecla and the metals prices, discusses premiums for accepting cash rather than physical on Comex, (which is in reality a default) and discusses a ceiling on silver of $36 because of derivative losses.

    Clearly this cannot continue!

    If you are unfamiliar with the “WB” conspiracy, read here.

    http://goldharvest.blogspot.com/2011/02/reverse-raid-on-crimex-silver-targets.html

    And also note my above links re the enemies of JPM.

    2)Certainly UK MI6 will be in the frame.

    I have explained before that since this is a US blog, I restrict comments to facts in that arena.

    I mentioned the CFR pulling the strings.

    There is a European wing, the European Council.. found on this link.

    http://www.ecfr.eu/

    Membership includes an extremely unhealthy mix of Marxists and socialists reaching right to the top, with individuals having cross membership of the IMF, BIS, and Bilderberg… The elites!

    Remember that Hitlers political party was “National Socialist”, but it was labelled “Fascist”. In the real world there is precious little difference

    The recent Davos meetings discussed the Middle East unrest, it was planned and anticipated, hence Clintons visits and words to the puppets.

    There are many preludes to war…they can appear in many locations. The world is on a knife-edge.

    • Greg

      UKGuy,
      Thank you again for the piercing comments!! Please come back often!!!
      Greg

  34. UKguy

    Greg,

    Note on the links to JPM enemies, above, a partner of Mr Winters in his new venture is a member of the Rothschild dynasty.

    The link, above, relating to tungsten gold bars says that Rothschilds left the LBMA in 2004, maybe because of the tungsten problems.

    With the Rothschilds dynasty teaming up with Mr Winters, I am wondering if a certain line has been drawn in the sand, with respect to manipulations.

    Time wil tell.

    Enjoy the show!

    • Greg

      Good to know UKguy, thank you for all the comments.
      Greg

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