Egypt Will Explode

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

“Egypt will explode.”  That was the reaction on twitter from Mohamed ElBaradei to Hosni Mubarak’s announcement not to resign the Presidency of Egypt.  ElBaradei is a former Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency and Nobel Peace Prize winner.  Now, he has emerged as a leader of the opposition movement.  Mubarak did transfer all power to his Vice President, Omar Suleiman, according to Sameh Shoukhry, the Egyptian Ambassador to the U.S.  That is not going to quell the revolt because it is widely known in Egypt that Suleiman has been linked to torture of its citizens and is a Mubarak appointee.

I don’t know who is advising President Mubarak, but yesterday’s announcement not to completely step aside amounts to poking a stick into a beehive.  What was a mostly a peaceful revolution could turn decidedly violent in the days ahead.  No matter what happens, it is clear Mubarak is on his way out.  It is likely that will happen long before the September date that Mubarak has given for his departure.  The political landscape in Egypt, and possibly in the entire Middle East, has changed forever.  KT McFarland, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, said yesterday, “The dominoes are falling one by one throughout the Muslim world. The question is whether they will fall for us or against us.” 

There are many questions to be answered.   Here are a few:  Will the new government of Egypt keep the peace treaty with Israel?  One of the leading factions of the protests is the Muslim Brotherhood.  According to Robert Mueller, Director of the FBI, the Muslim Brotherhood has been linked to terrorism.  This group is also very anti-Israel.  If the Muslim Brotherhood takes control, will war be far behind?  Will the U.S. and Egyptian military still enjoy close ties when power shifts to a new government?  (The Egyptians use mostly American made equipment.)  Will the Suez Canal remain a viable and reliable shipping route?  If there are democratic elections, will a Hamas or Hezbollah style government be voted into power or will this be a model democracy in the Muslim world?  Will the revolution in Egypt spread to other Middle Eastern states with authoritarian rule such as Saudi Arabia?  At this point, nobody knows, but all of these questions will be answered in time.

Egypt is one of the oldest continuous civilizations.  In the 4,000 year history since the pyramids were built, the country has been ruled by pharaohs, kings, queens, generals and dictators.  It has never been a democracy.  This transition will not go smoothly.

Comments
  1. Alessandro Machi

    I wrote a short solution piece on my dailypuma blog almost a week ago. http://dailypuma.blogspot.com/2011/02/mubarak-should-walk-among-protestors.html

    However, it can be summed up this easily, Mubarak should have just walked among the protestors several days ago, invited a few to join him so they can see first hand what will be happening in the ensuing months. Besides inviting a few of the protestors, a more in depth process could have then been used for a few more to brought in as well, all paid, just as if their job was to be the transition team.

    Mubarak claims he wants to stay in Egypt once he leaves office. If he wants to not be looking over his should the whole time, he should meet the people.

    • Greg

      Alessandro,
      Good point.
      Greg

  2. Sam

    From what I heard this evening, the Saudi king stepped in and promised funding for Egypt as American “aid” (bribes) starts to falter. So much for Obama’s “influence.”

    The shutting down of the Suez Canal is one I brought up in an earlier post. An anti-Western dictator COULD conceivably DO so – thus sending prices ever higher in the West. HOWEVER, such an individual would also slay the goose that lays the golden eggs, for TOURISM is a big business in Egypt. Who would want to travel to a country where anti-Western sentiment is whipped up into a frenzy? Only the foolhardy would go – the rest would spend whatever disposable income on Israel, Europe, the Far East, or home.

    So, such individuals COULD rule Egypt – but if they want tourists spending CASH, they’d have to learn to wear a monkey hat, and carry luggage with a smile.

  3. LD

    Greg, it sounds like these mostly young, energetic, educated and resilient people are motivated by a desire for a better life and are willing to assume responsibility for their own destiny and well-being. It could be a positive change for Israel and vice versa.

    • Greg

      LD,
      I hope so.
      Greg

  4. markm

    Hey Greg,

    US interests are not being served. Islamic majority nations will never have a true American or European style democracy. A Mubarak, a Shaw of Iran, or a Saudi King is the best we can hope for.

    Willfull blindness is no excuse. Reality sucks and utopia will never exist.

    I don’t know if this is true, but I heard a report that Mubarak’s law that banned clitoridectomies was a failure because the rate of female genital mutilation dropped by 7% to 90%.

    Again, I don’t know if that story is true!!!!!

    The evil that true Muslim cultures heap upon females is unbelievable.

    Sharia law is dangerous.

    PM Cameron made a speech about the negative effect of multiculturalism on Great Britain. He is right-on!

    markm

  5. john east

    “The dominoes are falling one by one throughout the Muslim world. The question is whether they will fall for us or against us.”

    The Arab on the street hates the West and our culture, and to be fair some of this is understandable. So sadly the chances of elections yielding a peaceful transition to pro-Western democracy rather than to a theocratic anti-Western dictatorship appear vanishingly small.

    I hope I’m proved wrong.

  6. Edward Ulysses Cate

    Rahm Emanuel said:
    “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.”

    I have no doubt that these things like Tunisia and Egypt were “lit” because those folks no longer have anything to lose. Much like herding animals into a box canyon. Operation Ajax comes to mind.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Ajax

    There’s little joy in being right.
    http://www.greatreddragon.com/commentary/LittleJoyBeingRight.JPG

  7. David Conrad

    Hi Greg,

    One complicated situation. And no, however the transition plays out, it will not be smooth. Mubarak is, among other things, a thief. Unless he has been a raging capitalist for thirty years (unknown to the world) then it appears that he has stolen $50 to $70 billion from his own people – probably about the same amount that we have given him over the years.

    Sadly, democracy may only be a dream for Egypt. The average Egyptian only makes two to three bucks a day. And when you see demonstrators riding camels in the streets, you have to wonder just what type of government will survive there?

    • Greg

      David,
      One thing is for sure Egypt will not let him keep all that money. Egypt is going to need it. Thank you for your comment.
      Greg

  8. OTE

    Greg,
    Hate it when others are pessimistic as me. The Israel issue will be the big threat coming out of this. Without a major Islamic country in the region willing to balance the anti-Israel sentiment, any and all actions taken by Israel during this mess will inflame the same people in the Cairo streets.

    It never ceases to amaze me that our diplomatic corp and policy makers lack the fundamental knowledge that habits take years and decades to change. Make no mistake, governance is a habit. When generations are used operating under a system of governance, everything they do is by habit.

    So here we have our own government reccommending the “patch”. Hate to tell our government this, but just like quiting tobacco, the “patch” of democracy will not work until and unless the all the patients want to quit their current system and embrace democracy. Ever be around someone trying to quit smoking? Now imagine a major Islamic country where not everyone wants to quit. In any economic system, there are those who achieve financial success. The question then becomes one of “will the vested (read wealthy) class surrender their wealth?

    Make no mistake, this is class warfare. We ain’t seen anything yet. I say again, “We ain’t seen anything yet.”

    • Greg

      OTE,
      Good point. Thank you.
      Greg

  9. FamilyForce6

    I’ve read allegations that Mohamed ElBaradei has links to US intelligence (as well as the Muslim Brotherhood). There was recently some big disagreements between Mubarak and Obama concerning the US foriegn policy towards Iran. My guess is that this “spontaneous” revolution was not a surprise to US intelligence and Obama’s initial response of urging a quick and peaceful transition to a new government makes me think the US has had a hand in this. Google’s willingness to step in a create a way for demonstrators to post blogs via cell voice service within hours of internet and text cell service being cut-off also make me think that the US hand is at work here.

    As you’ve said many times Greg, don’t trust the mainstream media to ask the tough questions or give the people of the US an accurate picture of what is really going on. Look for Saudia Arabia to fall next and war with Iran to follow soon (US battleships are already on their way to the Suez canal).
    Tell you congressmen that any military action by the US violates international treaties and that unless they (congress) are willing to declare war we need to keep our noses out of it (hey, I can dream the Constitution still means something!)
    FF6

  10. george

    Quote by DNI Clapper from RealClear Politics: “The term Muslim Brotherhood is an umbrella term for a variety of movements. In the case of Egypt, a very heterogeneous group, largely secular, which has eschewed violence and has decried al-Qaeda as a perversion of Islam,” Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told a congressional hearing today.

    This guy is a dumbass. Is there any wonder why we find ourselves in the economic or geopolitical situations of today. Our leaders are in love with ephemeral ideals while the American people are being steam rolled by reality.
    Brother Greg, Keep up the good work

    • Greg

      George,
      Thank you for the comment and info.
      Greg

  11. BigTom

    Can there be any good outcome here? Several possible scenarios….

    Scenario 1
    Food shortages arrive in Egypt and prices go up, along with an enraged and horribly terrible dictatior that squashes the people of Egypt under a pulverizing granite fist for decrying their hunger. One day the sun peeks thru the clouds and everyone wakes up and gets out of bed and riots. We want democracy the people shout. This is truly a spontaneous and beautiful thing. Since alot of Egyptains live on $1 a day or there-abouts, democracy is very important to them. They stage riots with slogans like, ‘we shall over come’, sing ‘kumbaya’ and run around the streets with many posters printed in English demanding a step down from a horriffic leader that has been lashing them like rowers on a Roman slave galley for the last 30 years. The people overcome and democracy springs forth like an oaises in the desert. “The people are finally free”, they exclaim with leaping joy and clapping hands, after 4,000 years. Everyone is happy and hugs each other and then unanimously they vote in a benevolient leader. Clouds part and the sun finally shines thru with light rays bringing forth the promised one. Crops are plentiful and the people are eating again and everyone has a flat screen TV now in their home. Life is wonderful. This is the version MSM likes and promotes nightly on TV, and americans watch!

    Scenario 2
    Food shortages exist and prices go up.The people of Egypt exist on meager earnings and are getting scared. Religious zealots having lurked in the wings of buildings for years see their chance. They are conspirators and realize that stuff just doesn’t fall out of the sky and happen, contrary to what MSM has americans believing. Opportunities like this come once in a life time and they make their move. Things happen and are brought about by formulating, implementing and sticking to a plan. wow! viola! That’s the definition of conspiracy! They saw how Iran pulled this off 30 years ago with American help and now see their opportunity arising. America is offering their help again. We are in!! It seems these riots were not really an instantaneous thing at all but rather planned and staged, financed and fomented from the dark side. It isn’t hard to get hungry people upset, and the unrest starts and a vacuum is created. Of course this is shrewdly promoted as a democracy thing and the press swallows it either knowingly or unknowingly and the world eats it up and jumps up and down clapping their hands also with happiness. Democracy is raising it’s beautiful head and, after all, this democracy thing is important to everyone, isn’t it? Destabilization follow the riots, and a change of leadership occur, in fact several changes in leadership follow and lo and behold the outcome results in people voting in a radical islamic regime angry at the world that doesn’t embrace sharia law and strict adherence to fundamental islam. WOW! A vacuum is filled with radical islam. HUH! How did that happen? This is what the MSM pundits are going to be confused about for years to come now, and a watching, listening world paying the price.

    • Greg

      Big Tom,
      Thank you for your analysis.
      Greg

  12. Linen Ghost

    Thankfully, with the intervention of the Egyptian military; a violent uprising will perhaps be averted. Only time will tell and the will of the Egyptian populace must remain strong and vigilant. I believe that most of us hope that this is the case.

    It is amazing watching history unfold in real time.

    Best of Luck, and Rational Approach, Thought, and Action to the Egyptian people.

  13. bean

    ABC News White House correspondent Jake Tapper wrote on Twitter about 40 minutes ago that the Obama administration is basically clueless as to the ramifications to the United States of the overthrow of the Egyptian government of Hosni Mubarak.

    “Also worth keeping in mind: cant find anyone in O admin who thinks whatever comes next will be better for U.S. interests than Mubarak was”

    This comes after Obama campaigned for Mubarak’s overthrow.

    just passing this along.wonder if the egyptians will be “nudged” the way the iraqis are? what were we told in ’02? democracy and islam can’t co-exist? gonna be an interesting year no doubt.

    • Greg

      Bean,
      Good to know, thank you!!
      Greg

  14. Art Barnes

    Greg, if anyone believes that Egypt will become a western or european style democracy, instead of a military run government of the totalitarian type they might also be interested in investing in the Golden Gate Bridge I recently inherited from my late uncle Dubious Scam.

  15. Jay

    Greg,
    As I see it, Obama and his bankster overlords at the FED in England hate Israel. Egygt was at peace with Israel even if Mubarak was a product of the British American empire. Obama works closely with his Muslim Brotherhood and all other enemies of Israel to include, Hillary, Hamas and Hezbollah. The Federal Reserve has run out of your tax dollars and can no longer borrow from China and the rest of the world and the IRS which is headquartered in the Bank of England can no longer prop up its American empire which it has used as a military hammer to control the rest of the world, ie..(British Empire). Printing more money will just weaken its power further. War is the inevitable result. Financial collapse is always covered by war and desolation. After Bush and Obama initiated the Muslim brotherhood revolution, the world food crisis stimulated public action in Tunisia and Egypt and the rest of the world will feel the same effects soon. This looks like the beginning of the real thing. Not just another British Opium war like Afghanistan where the military industrial complex goes to test its new weapons while guarding the drug stash of the empire. Don’t bet too heavily on peace and prosperity in the short run. The same people who own the FED and Wall Street also own the banks, your government and your stocks and they are all worthless.

  16. Jay

    Oh and one other thing. The founding fathers stated that “Our form of government was made only for a moral and religious people and it is wholly inadequate for the governance of any other.” If America does what Egypt just did, don’t count on getting a new government that is a more honest, moral and religious than the one we now have. Government can only be as good at representation as the society of people who send representatives to it. This society does not even have enough knowledge or understanding to realize that democracy typically ends in dictatorship. They pledge allegiance to the Republic and then Bill Clinton and BHO seduce them into supporting a democracy. Shallow thinkers will always drown in the deep waters of tyrannical government after being soaked in debt.

  17. nm

    I for one don’t know why people are celebratlng yet.

    Mubarak is STILL in Egypt. He didn’t leave like the president of Tunisia.

    Omar Suleiman is also STILL in Egypt.

    I’ve lived in a third world country with a dictator and as I told someone today, they are only two options that can transpire.

    1) Mubarak and his henchmen (who are the richest people in that country today) will decide to bribe the incoming army officers (for their own protection) and when this happens, the idea of a democracy flourishing will be totally compromised. You might get freedom of the press, but the poverty and corruption will continue with a new corrupt elite ruling the country. Think Russia after Yeltsin. They ended up with Putin. Not much better.

    2) The young officers refuse the bribes and decide to really clean up the system, but if this route is taken, blood will be spilled. The people who have benefitted from Mubarak’s regime will not just let their wealth and way of life be destroyed. They’ll fight back and they’ll use their money to pay who they have to.

    If I was a rich Egyptian, now is the time to move your assets out of the country and leave.

  18. john east

    Greg,
    None of us know the fate of Egypt, but that doesn’t stop a lot of people speculating so here is a new take. I cannot claim credit for this it is taken off Zero Hedge.

    Just look at the stats below. Population growth, fertile land availability, negative oil revenues, food costs going through the roof etc., etc. One point not mentioned is that 32% of the population is under the age of fourteen.

    Looking at this data there is no need to speculate anymore. The facts demonstrate that no matter who rules Egypt, future prospects are grim.

    (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-egypts-warning-are-you-listening)
    The relentless math:
    Population 1960: 27.8 million
    Population 2008: 81.7 million
    Current population growth rate: 2% per annum (a 35-year doubling rate)
    Population in 2046 after another doubling: 164 million
    Rainfall average over whole country: ~ 2 inches per year
    Highest rainfall region: Alexandria, 7.9 inches per year
    Arable land (almost entirely in the Nile Valley): 3%
    Arable land per capita: 0.04 Ha (400 m2)
    Arable land per capita in 2043: 0.02 Ha
    Food imports: 40% of requirements
    Grain imports: 60% of requirements
    Net oil exports: Began falling in 1997, went negative in 2007

  19. Jmac

    Yes. God help us if the extremist, right wing, hyper religious, fearful, militaristic, Islamic forces take control of Egypt. Those types of groups present and real and present danger to us all.

    • demcon

      Agree! Let me slightly change Jmac’s and alsonsay:

      God help us if the extremist, right wing, hyper religious, fearful, militaristic, Christian forces ever take control of the US.

  20. Bob

    The people in Egypt have the last say, nobody in this country can are should try to control the out come. We tried that an done that,and now we are broke in every way. The spending cuts in the USA by inflation are by the congress cutting has the same out come, we as a nation will have little to give to other countries. Buying security around the world has become a businesses model for funding and must be stop. Good lucky to Egypt, hope they have a good credit rating when they form a new government.

  21. NCdirtdigger

    To this point there has been no real change in Egypt. The military is still in control, and I believe they will continue to be in control regardless of who ‘wins’ any election.

    • Greg

      NCDirtdigger,
      Agreed. Thank you man!!
      Greg

  22. James

    It should be interesting to see how the Arabian Dominoes will fall from this point.

    Already there is unrest in Algeria & Yemen.

    Could Morocco, Libya & Saudi Arabia be far behind?

    I think of the Chinese curse that stated “May you live in interesting times”

    Peace,

    James

    • Greg

      James,
      Good and scary points, well made.
      Greg

    • Greg

      LSD,
      Great video!! Thank you!!
      Greg

  23. Lew

    This is simply an agenda unfolding. Whether we choose to ignore it or prepare for it will set our course for the rest of this century. I personally have little confidence in the egomaniacs we have as “leaders” to realistically set policy and deal with the World thsat is in our best interests.

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