New Recession Starts After Mid-Year-John Williams
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Economist John Williams correctly predicted the first quarter GDP in 2015 would turn negative. What is his second quarter prediction for GDP? Williams says, “I am looking for an outright contraction in the second quarter as well. Two back to back negative quarters in the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) would be counted as a recession. GDP is very heavily bloated and inflated by all sorts of gimmicks. . . . In effect, we are seeing a weakening of the economy now that is dragging down these bloated numbers. I contend we never recovered from the collapse in 2008 and 2009. We have just been bottom bouncing. . . . It is beginning to turn down again. . . . Expectations for the second quarter will begin to sink.”
To back up Williams’ claim of a “sinking” economy, look no further than the Dow Transports which show a clear downtrend. There are many more signs of trouble as Williams contends, “. . . The better quality numbers show the economy is sinking. For example, industrial production, published by the Federal Reserve, has contracted dramatically in the first quarter, and it is a virtual certainty to contract in the second quarter. . . . Year-to year growth of industrial production is at a level that you only see going into recession. New orders of durable goods, that’s a leading indicator to industrial production. It contracted in the fourth quarter, it contracted in the first quarter, and it is basically in the second quarter. . . . I think it will be down when all the numbers are in, and that will indicate a further contraction in the third quarter of this year. Now, where you have has stronger numbers in the last month or so is with the housing numbers. Home sales and housing starts, but those numbers are highly volatile and they are extremely unstable. . . . You look at those numbers, you are down anywhere between 30%-60% from where you were before the (2008-2009) recession. . . . Those numbers are going to start to turn down.”
So, what does Williams make of the strength of the dollar in the last year? He thinks the markets were anticipating the Fed raising interest rates because of the so-called “recovery.” Of course, the economy is not improving, and Williams thinks when the Fed tries to pump the economy back up, the dollar will dive. Williams explains, “I was looking for a hyperinflation in 2014. What I did not expect and what I have missed is the big rally in the dollar. . . . The economy was never improving. Now, it’s not only not improving, but it is begging to turn down again. That’s the importance of quarter to quarter contraction. When you get that, you get official recognition that the economy is falling, and it is not recovering. So, as the expectations wane on the Fed tightening, you will start to see dollar selling. I think you are going to see a panic decline in the dollar at some point, massive selling of the dollar, not only that, it will take it down to levels of a year ago, but to historic lows. As that happens, you will see a tremendous spike in oil prices which will start moving the consumer price index pick up. . . . You have an overhang in excesses of $12 trillion outside the United States. A goodly portion of that will be repatriated to the United States into the US markets. People will be dumping the dollar to get out of the dollar, and the Fed is going to have to be monetizing all sorts of things. . . . What’s out of whack right now against reality is the strength of the dollar. We don’t have a booming economy. We don’t have a Fed that is going to happily raise rates, although they would like to. As the realization sinks in, the exchange rate of the dollar will start falling. Then, you will actually have a panic, and once that has happened, you will see a sharp upturn in headline inflation, and that will evolve eventually into hyperinflation. . . . A dollar panic is reflective of the problems here.”
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with economist John Williams of Shadowstats.com.
(There is much more in the video interview.)
After the Interview:
John Williams has some free information on the home page of his website ShadowStats.com. He also sells detailed research to billion dollar money managers and hedge funds. If you would like to subscribe to his research, you can do so for $175 per year, or $89 for six months, by clicking here.
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About the Author
Greg Hunter
Greg is the producer and creator of USAWatchdog.com. The site’s slogan is “analyzing the news to give you a clear picture of what’s really going on.” The site will keep an eye on the government, your financial interests and cut through the media spin. USAWatchdog.com is neither Democrat nor Republican, Liberal or Conservative. Before creating and producing the site, Greg spent nearly 9 years as a network and investigative correspondent. He worked for ABC News and Good Morning America for nearly 6 years. Most recently, Greg worked for CNN for shows such as Paula Zahn Now, American Morning and various CNN business shows.
This guy has been preaching hyper-inflation for some time. It’s still a ways off, John.
Still, I agree with his other views such as that the economy never did recover and has been bottom bouncing since 2008.
Greg,
I am trying to figure out what excuse John will use when GDP is positive for the 2nd quarter. The most likely is that the numbers were concocted. The reality is that most economic indicators are positive and the recession predicted by the alternative media for years now is not on any reliable economist’s radar.
Paul
Keep smoking….It looks better with every toke. 🙂
You need to wake up and smell the coffee, Paul. What planet are you living on? Tell that to the out-of-work Americans due to the loss of thousands of jobs. Better yet, get a subscription to Mish Shedlock’s newsletter showing the REAL situation via accurate graphs of such. John Williams is not that far off base.
In the 18 to mid 60’s age group 93,000,000 out of approximately 230,000,000 are not working. This is too many and will ultimately lead to some real pain here. Maybe not so far away. Too many going on disability addedvto the retiring folk. My dad worked till he was 85. I will probably be similar . How are we suppose ro carry those who don’t?
Paul
You need to come out of your cave…..man!
And when you come out try walking upside down.
Cheers
Col
You present people for interviews that have great knowledge and something important to relate to we, the viewers. Your interviews would be GREATLY enhanced if you could, perhaps, do more homework and get your questions organized so that you don’t rephrase several times. Ask the question once and let the person answer, fully, without interruption. I notice that you have a lot more control over your repetition habit when speaking with someone like Paul Craig Roberts.
I must beg to differ with you here. I appreciate the reclarification style of especially of things just said because its hard for me to get the complete picture that Greg gets with some of the guests.
We at WatchDog know the month of September 2015 is going to create a lot of uncertainty … and it will likely be making a lot of Jewish investors uneasy … for it is reported that on 9/11 France will introduce a resolution which would give formal UN Security Council recognition to a Palestinian State (and it looks like the United States won’t block the resolution this time) … then on 9/25 the Pope will travel to New York to give a major speech at the UN unveiling “a new” Agenda 21 (to save world resources which will likely be interpreted to hurt economic growth some more) … and finally on 9/28 the last of the four “blood moons” will be a super moon “visible in Jerusalem” (scarily similar to the blood moon pattern of eclipses that happened at the time of the destruction of the Jewish temple by the Romans in 70 AD) … so putting all this “uncertainty” together … along with the S&P 500 (now up by more than 200 percent over a six year time frame) which only occurred twice before in history … the first time being right before 1929 crash and the second time right before the 2000 dotcom bubble crash … and we have the makings for a very sizable “CRASH” coming this September/October!
So … what is the Fed going to do about it? … will they allow the stock market to lose 700 Points in One Day? … followed by a 1929 like Crash from there?? … Not if I were running things at the Fed … I would begin printing fiat very rapidly “right now” because it takes time to work into the economy … the Fed must act by initiating QE4 to “force the dollar down now” in order to help stem the balance of trade deficit and make the economic numbers show the economy recovering in September/October … but how does the Fed force the dollar down if Greece collapses? (and people begin running to the dollar for safety?) … they must keep Greece from a total collapse that will take the Euro down … the Fed also needs to raise interest rates (to help force the banks to begin lending money “to the people” which will help boost economic growth) … but how does the Fed raise rates if doing so is going to strengthen the dollar? … well that’s where China comes in (and rescues the Fed by backing the Yuan with gold) which will help to weaken the dollar enough so the Fed can raise rates!
Thus as we can see … it is a given that September/October is going to create much uncertainty … thus the Fed should and must begin QE4 “now” … which will force the dollar down help the trade deficit and boost the economy … however they must keep Greece from collapsing completely (because that will strengthen the dollar) … and hopefully China will ride to the rescue and weaken the dollar more (with a strong gold backed yuan) giving the Fed an opportunity to raise interest rates “a bit” (which will strengthen the dollar) but not raise interest rates so much as to make the dollar rise (but only enough to prevent the dollar from “plunging too rapidly”) … the increased rates will then help to boost economic growth in the US as money will be lent “into the economy” by the banks … and those looking for interest income will begin to buy bonds again … allowing the Fed to print the 5 to 8 trillion a year necessary to balance the federal budget!
So as we see the Fed is walking a tightrope … any miss step by the Fed … and the market can Crash just as bad as it did in 1929 … such “a deflationary situation” will only be remedied by the Fed implementing “very overt” inflationary moves … like manipulating the price of gold and silver much “much” higher … to create the inflationary expectations needed to counter deflation!
Paul, I can feel your frustration and all you want to do is to shake them up and bring to their attention the obvious solution, but these people are highly intelligent with IQ’s of 150+ and they know exactly what they need to do to achieve a One World System and this Greatest Depression we are headed for, is the first step of many painful steps we will be taking until they succeed……..I fear not, but I fear for my children.
Notice … the IMF only declared Greece in “arrears” (not in default) … by the IMF taking onto their books the European banks Greek debt they avoided a derivatives meltdown … Credit rating agencies do not consider the IMF a “commercial lender” so they can’t say Greece is in default (because it missed an IMF payment) … thus a derivative take down was avoided … and hence … the effect on the dollar strength was minimized!
Somehow the Fed actually seems to be doing a QE4 (without verbally saying so) … because I’m seeing an undeniable “steepening of yield curve” which only occurs when there is an increase in inflationary expectations (due to money printing) … this should be bullish for gold regardless of whether it is driven by rising long-term interest rates or falling short-term interest rates … the clear message the US yield curve is sending (by rising pretty markedly over the past 5 months) is that the Fed “must be printing” but just not telling us about it) … now if this steepening of the yield curve continues … then we will soon see “price inflation” begin a more rapid upward trend that can last for a year or longer.
So it looks to me like the Fed “is trying to stop” a steep decline in the stock market from happening this fall … and “is trying to boost” the economic numbers for later this year … not that a deflation scare can’t still strike out of the blue … but at least the steepening yield curve (with its inflationary implications) will help to mitigate any such deflationary shock!
John Williams must have the hardest time separating real numbers from rigged numbers. I can only imagine his thoughts when Greg ask him about other economies. As to Greece, and the Euro only time will tell. Glad he did not make a time prediction. Everyone’s crystal ball has smug marks on it at this point. Thanks for your work brother Greg.
My smudged crystal ball s saying. If we enter recession in July, surely when the restructure of the Asian markets start in September ( AIIB ) we will see a 3 quarter retraction and cause a dumping of T bills, and a large fall in stocks. Confidence in the dollar is held together by thin air inside a burning house.
Classic John Williams, exercising care in making predictions and modeling the kind of long-term trend perspective that does not easily answer the WHEN question, but rather charts the inevitable conclusion IF things continue as they are. I found his summary at the end to be the most clear depiction of just how much trouble the US is in and how this can not possibly turn around from going all the way into the ground.
There is a 15-minute video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIr0PT95y4A) that I found helpful to me in seeing the way the wealth has been taken from the 99% and given to the 1%. The math begins at the 10 min. mark and shows how the REAL ECONOMY was CUT IN HALF between 2000 (under Bush) and 2010 (under Obama). The trends shown in 2011 have only continued and increased. The phony money being put into the system is masking the degree to which the real transfer of wealth is taking place. What will happen when there is no more to transfer and the parasite has killed the host? A planned collapse is coming, and I believe it will be sometime this fall.
$12T+ outside the US that will start coming home.
Most of that is digital currency that exists only in the ether. It will simply vanish. There will be a currency shortage, which is why a nice stack of 5s, 10s and 20s is important. Expect the supply chain to be interrupted (production/distribution/retail). What you have in your home will be it. At least go out and get some big bags of rice and dry beans.
Then a black market will develop. Now gold & silver will be valuable.
Barter goods also –
TP
Good Distillery liquor
Cigarettes
Gasoline
– and many other commodities
If the supply chain remains broken for long, looting and riots will start. Firearms and ammo will be indispensable.
Stockpile common forms of ammo (even if you don’t have these particular guns) –
9mm
.22LR
12 ga shotgun shells
30-30
30-06
People who have guns will eventually need one or more of these kinds of ammo.
Yes, guns and ammo will part of the most important cache that you own!
Greg,
I highly respect John Williams, and for the most part his predictions have been fairly accurate, but I’m not sure how you can have a discussion about the future of our economy without discussing the dollar retaining reserve currency status. The information I have been receiving is indicating a major shift to the RMB as world reserve currency by mid September. With the recent shift to the AIIB the last few months by the majority of the worlds leading economies, you would have to take this seriously. If the information I have been receiving proves to be true, it will totally change the paradigm of our current economic system, and have a profound impact on everything we do.
Skeptics will say that statement is contrived fear porn. That the Chinese do not have the system in place to make such a move. All I can say is, who owns the gold? Certainly not us. While the Chinese have been buying train loads of it, our government has been busy printing money, buying hollow point bullets, and urban assault vehicles. What does that tell you? If actions speak louder than words, then we are indeed in a lot of trouble.
Why pussyfoot around about it? The dollar will lose reserve currency status by the end of September. Over 1000 banks worldwide have already set up for RMB transfers.
Open your eyes people.
http://www.gtreview.com/news/asia/chances-of-rmb-inclusion-in-imf-basket-growing/
Greg, Thank you for having John Williams on again with his concise correct summation of the EU/US situation. I usually watch each guest at least twice to assimilate what has been said. I think the severe weather we’ve had here in the midwest was playing havoc with Skype but it was still worth hanging in there for his comments. You’re a real trooper!!
Joni
AIIB holds signing ceremony. Next comes SDR drawing rights. After the Greece debacle the IMF needs the money that the United States simply doesn’t have.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-33307314
This is very big news Jerry.
I quote from the article;
“The US has questioned the governance standards at the new institution, which it sees as spreading Chinese “soft power”, and tried to persuade others to stay away.”
This is monumentally hypocritical and farcical.
Meanwhile the major shareholders of the AIIB, China, Russia, Germany, India plus countless minor shareholding countries are forming a huge international development bank. This will have huge ramifications financially and diplomatically for the whole world.
Bullies tend to be bad losers and as such it will be very scary indeed to witness what the Washington response will be as the AIIB gains traction.
Cheers
Col
I have said many times…do not underestimate the US… when it comes to losing their hegemony via the petro dollar regime. They will fight tooth and nail even if it means bringing the whole system down. 😉
Just ordered a large number of #10 cans of freeze dried refried beans. They have a 25 year shelf life, the cost came out to about 30 cents per serving, they are high in calories, protein, and fiber. Freeze dried is easy to cook by just adding boiling water. You can get all sorts of vegetables, fruits, beans, and meats in #10 cans. There are various online retailers to order from. The worst case is that I will be eating 2015 and prior priced food in the future. They will sit on the shelf until we need them or we get old and need to start eating them before we die. Who wants to make a bet that those prices will be much higher in a few years time. I believe it will be a very good investment when calculating a return on the money spent. We did order a couple cans of beans to try before the big order. I can tell you they taste fantastic as is for almost all freeze dried food. We tend to order just single items like corn, chicken, tomatoes, cheese, potatoes, beef. For the most part avoid the pre- made meals like lasagna because we don’t like the taste of those as much. We like to make our own meals and add what flavors we like. We find with the single items you usually just get real food without all of the preservatives. The ingredients for the refried beans are beans and salt and that is it.
Thanks for the info, Steven. Don’t forget the toilet paper! 🙂
Greg: the main point I get from JW is that the timing for the financial and economic implosion is totally dependent upon the confidence of the global markets in the USD. Given the US constant war mongering and interference in the sovereignty of many nations, not to mention the NSA snooping and espionage, we may have already reached the tipping point. Once the Q2 numbers on GDP are published, the rest of the world is going to realize that the US “recovery” doesn’t exist and the pathological lies and obfuscations will be firmly exposed. That’s when the dumping of USTs by our supposed allies will commence. The only buyer will be the FED.
As I drive around the country I notice many changes taking place. The most recent sudden change is the price of diesel fuel. In many areas of the country diesel fuel is now cheaper than regular grade (87) gasoline. I’m wondering if this is due to reduced demand?
If we aren’t producing goods, we are not shipping them. It’s that simple. So yes, demand for diesel is way down. According to one of my nearby gas stations, it’s off by 25% YOY.
He’s been saying hyper-inflation imminent since 2008… that’s 8 years now Greg.
Cassandra,
It was a forecast that he made for 2014 and now he has changed it to this year. Let’s quote it correctly.
Greg
JW is in good company Greg-
For in 1929 Rodger Babson stated a crash of considerable scope was on the horizon (see “the Babson Break”). Was Babson lionized for his foresight and predictive analysis, no he was vilified as unpatriotic, mocked for being 2 yrs too early with his call and later even accused of causing the Depression.
Who did the American public (aka Boobus AmeriCONUS) choose to bet the farm on instead of Babson- if you guessed primarily a crackpot astrologer called Evangeline Adams you’d be correct. While the stock market of 1929 wasn’t played by the rules even in the supposed “good old days”, they certainly look like choir boys when compared to the flim-flam operators of today. You can rest assured that the turn of century phrase that says, “Some men are born to be gulled.” is as true now as it was then.
You are right. He’s been predicting it for years and then when he’s wrong, it’s the next year and the next year…….. Maybe someday he’ll be right. I’ll probably be dead.
I wouldn’t get too excited if John Williams hyperinflation prediction ever comes true. When it does you’ll be looking back and calling these the good ole’ days. That’s like askin’ to be struck by lightening and having your your boat sink both on the same week. I don’t care how well you think you’re prepared, it’s impossible. So I’m more than happy that he keeps pushing out the hyperinflation forecast. I hope it goes until 2040 and I am dead before it happens!! Somehow I doubt he will be wrong that long though..
It sure enough is going to be bad in the coming years and months. This country has completely turned its back on God and so will reap a bounty of hell on earth. Whether its no money, bad crops, civil unrest, we have earned this fate. The recent promotion of Homosexual marriage by the Supreme Court is the most outrageous step towards insanity that a normal person from 50 years ago could think of. I truly believe that it can only get worse from there. Ruling after ruling, we keep thinking …Oh No, they will never do this or do that, but when it comes to government and particularly the supreme court we are always caught off guard. What do you think is going to happen with the contested age of consent. Logically, I would think that we keep it right at 18, but you already know what they’re going to do if you believe in Murphy’s law because it is the first step to an even sicker state. They are going to call minors above age 12 consenting per the lawsuit and then an adult male age 40 or so can then have a 13 year old girlfriend or even a boyfriend with stipulation of consent. This is obviously horse rubbish! This government be damned. They feed us GMO’s. They play games with the weather with their seismic attenuation equipment. They sow the seeds of hatred between the races and then feign surprise when all hell breaks loose. Its no wonder that now one out of three Americans would consider leaving the country !
The Poison of Government Corruption
Government corruption has been defined as the abuse of public power for private gain. Such abuse has a long history. For example, the Bible includes a law prohibiting bribery in judicial cases, showing that the practice was already well-known over 3,500 years ago. (Exodus 23:8) Of course, corruption involves more than just accepting bribes. Corrupt public officials sometimes appropriate goods, take advantage of services to which they are not entitled, or even steal funds outright. They may also use their position to favor their friends and relatives unfairly.
While corruption can exist in any human organization, it seems that corruption in government is the worst. The 2013 Global Corruption Barometer, published by Transparency International, reported that people worldwide have the perception that the five most corrupt institutions are political parties, the police, public officials, the legislature, and the judiciary.
Government corruption has deep roots. Professor Susan Rose-Ackerman, an expert on the subject of anti-corruption, wrote that reform would require “fundamental changes in the way government does business.” While the situation might seem to be hopeless, the Bible shows that even greater changes are not only possible but also certain to happen
EUROPE: “The extent of the problem [corruption in Europe] is breathtaking,” according to European Commission Home Affairs Commissioner Cecilia Malmström. She added that “the political commitment to really root out corruption seems to be missing.”
Greg, many of us looked for the economic collapse happening by now , and Mr. Williams has thought so also. Hardly anybody, has thought it could have gone on this long. The Lord will bring it about in his own timing, weather it be by reset or a full blow deflationary collapse. Mr. Williams goes by data only, and its his business to do so. So he can only say, what he’s perceives to be a natural playing out of economic data. The political and economic landscape can’t be determined only by data. It involves so much more. Great job, once again, your da-man
Deflation is coming .Gold will trade below 900$ silver 12$ And maybe even 10
Inflation is always the result of a currency event. Williams is thus correct, for as interest rates will be kept low (via more money printing to purchase T-bills, etc.) in an attempt to keep the economy from imploding, many of the dollars held overseas will repatriate. Entities and individuals there, will want to exchange dollars here, for something tangible. (In fact, this process has already started. Look at art, New York condo prices, stocks, etc.) This is the developing “currency event” that is necessary for any new large inflationary cycle. Most asset prices (yes, stocks too – the financiers/wall street will get even more rewards) will rise. Hyperinflation, may then come just as it did in Germany after WWI — with ever escalating money printing instituted to take care of the burdens of unrealistic debt repayment. Remember, using GAAP, the total debt of the US is around $200 trillion. The statistical manipulations Williams tries to reveal on his site, are the government’s efforts to conceal the reality of what has already started monetarily. Watch money velocity. As it continues to decline and dollars pour in (printed and repatriated) real inflation (not government stated inflation) will take off. Williams is much more reasoned than those using talk of Black Swans, blood moons, etc., etc. as necessary precursors to future events.
You ought not to worry about this. Low velocity should have been your first clue as to the fact that hyperinflation will not happen.
◄God’s Kingdom—A Government With No Corruption►
“At the end of the day, public officials are still citizens and we are all a product of society.” So stated the chief auditor of Nicaragua when explaining why he felt that government corruption was impossible to eliminate.
Would you not agree that if human society is corrupt, then any government that is a part of it will inevitably be corrupt? If that is the case, then a government free of corruption must come from outside human society. The Bible describes just such a government—God’s Kingdom, the government for which Jesus taught his followers to pray.—Matthew 6:9, 10.
God’s Kingdom is a real government that rules from heaven. It will replace all human governments. (Psalm 2:8, 9; Revelation 16:14; 19:19-21) Among the blessings that the Kingdom will bring to mankind is the elimination of government corruption.
Jubilee Bible 2000
And in the days of those kings the God of heaven shall raise up a kingdom which eternally shall never become corrupted, and this kingdom shall not be left to another people, but it shall break in pieces and consume all these kingdoms, and it shall stand for ever. ◄ Daniel 2:44 ► http://biblehub.com/daniel/2-44.htm
There are six features of the Kingdom that guarantee this. . . .Stay Tuned!
Seems to me the Fed and the London “fix” is squaring the books with the Chinese. Or , “managed retreat”.
John Williams is a great analyst. I give him credit for hard work. I enjoy his interviews.
The system is collapsing……yadda, yadda, yadda. Sorry Greg, I’m a broken record. I see the reality of the world. It doesn’t get better, there is no transfer of paper or profits to be had. The system doesn’t drag on. It will really suck.
If services fail….Police stay home, Hospitals aren’t staffed, water treatment stops, water doesn’t flow, electricity becomes sporadic, distribution stops, sewage isn’t processed…..It gets ugly quickly. (No food available, no water, no law & order, no medical, poor hygiene, …..= violence, riots, crime, decease, plagues, starvation, panic……)
Wow, this is going to get memorable….
Just had friends return from a European trip that included a journey to Athens. They had to leave. Trash was piled high on every other block — municipal garbage collection has ended. Athens = a real Greek tragedy.
They also visited Rome where they were surrounded by about 40 men who bumped, pushed and pulled them while robbing them of all their money and credit cards. When reported to the police, the authorities admitted they get 40 reports per day of similar actions. Lots more go unreported. Getting ugly there quickly.
How things can turn around very quickly. I was there recently and quite the opposite was true.
Greg and site: The president came to Nashville Tn today. Gave a speech on (Obama) care.
He did not have a prompter and was a mess. A Donelson site on facebook was allowing only praise to be posted. When someone would put truth out it was deleted at once. For a few seconds you got the truth then it was removed. This president has a wide network in force. Scary
This is indeed true. But the control is much larger than you think. Entire portions of the net appear to have been effectively removed since about March of this year. What is helping with this censorship is to have an IP address at hand. Avoid using names.
Actually Greg,
John seemed a bit distant in this interview. A bit down in the dumps. I just wish the best for him. I’ve followed his commentary for years. He is a real gentleman.
Nothing to see here with Greece’s default. Move along. RIGHT! I guess that’s why the ECB has been planning for months to ramp up its money printing program.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/15/us-ecb-policy-idUSKBN0N60N820150415
Folks I can’t say it any other way, than to say GET READY. The ECB knows it can only stall off a collapse for so long. And when it goes down, its going to take the U.S. banks with it. As I have previously posted, all of the G20 countries know it. That’s why they have all signed on with the AIIB and the Chinese swift system. The gold purchased by the Chinese will be used as a backstop for the new exchange system.
Behind closed doors, Christine Lagarde and the IMF have already signed on to it. The Greece default has bankrupted the IMF and they have no other choice. The next G20 summit is the 15th of November in Antalya. According to the Financial Stability Board letter sent to the G20 in February ( Titled “Post Crisis Agenda”) the bulk of their focus will be on the derivative market. You figure it out. The Financial Stability Board members are composed of ECB presidents.
Jerry,
You couldn’t be more correct. I am on the same page, paragraph and sentence.
We should also add…. the recent EU (BRRD) directive for the adoption of the Bail -IN regime for 11 EU member states…including France and Italy was not by accident and with appropriate timing. This must occur before the end of this month. Why the urgency ? Austria (in April) was clear evidence of the Government’s agenda to allow Creditors to be responsible for any banking crisis. The public (taxpayers) are to be let off the hook. Creditors by definition include depositors. I suspect that the Governments of EU will at some point follow the Austrian lead and remove the guarantee of deposits.
Something diabolical comes this way very soon.
The odds that second quarter GDP will come in at a negative number are somewhere on the scale of slim to none. I have lived in the same town for 20 years, and have never seen more help wanted signs in store fronts or heard more radio ads wanting to hire people. Granted, most are not high paying jobs, but they are above minimum wages. Whole Foods is begging for employees and starting at $11.00 and up, to name one. Mr. Williams predictions are not based on the reality that I see around me.
Brewmaster,
I had a summer factory job in StL MO when I was in college. It paid $10 an hour plus bonus. That was 1977.
Greg
Wow Greg, that was great money back in the day, wasn’t it? Would have bought a lot of Budweiser, lol. Back when you could work hard for the summer and pay for the whole year of college. That is a pipe dream today.
I didn’t say they were great jobs, just that there are more job openings than I have seen in my town ever. It doesn’t fit in with the second quarter contraction idea, that’s not going to happen is all I’m saying.
Looks like a gold and silver buying opportunity is getting closer. Sure glad I haven’t been buying any more and kept plenty of dry powder. I expect 8-12 dollar silver to be the buy zone and 800-1000 dollar to be the buy zone. Hard to wait for though. Greece defaults and metals crash means we remain in a bear market for now. Good luck.
Brewmaster,
We are talking about GDP here, are we not? Part-time and low paying jobs are not going to be adding much to the GDP. You don’t need luck when you have equity and no debt and that is the best way to ride out what’s coming. You may have waited too long as the US mint has run out of Silver Eagles. You will be paying much higher commission prices to get metal unless this turns around fast. http://www.prisonplanet.com/us-mint-runs-out-of-silver-on-same-day-price-of-silver-plunges-to-2015-lows.html
Greg
Guess we will just have to wait til the end of the month for the GDP numbers. I don’t expect a massive positive number or anything, just not negative. As far as silver goes, there could be a short term shortage of eagles, but I could care less what form I buy. Silver is silver no matter the form and there is no silver shortage just an eagle shortage temporarily. Greg, I fundamentally agree with you and some of your guest that the outlook is bleak, I just think being a metals perma-bull has hurt people badly over the last 4 years. I own metals that I paid too much for several years ago after reading how they could only go up. Obviously I messed up. Plenty of time to wait for the trend to turn up and then buy, or else wait for the markets to get to my target price.
Brew,
You do realize all the numbers are calculated to make things look better than reality. I think we are on the same page too, but you are talking about trading, and I am talking about wealth protection and survival. At this point, the commissions on gold and silver coins are going to go up as the supply goes down. My message is protect yourself, and do not try to trade this. What is coming had not happened in recorded history according to renown investor Jim Rogers. He said that on USAWatchdog.com.
Greg
Greg
Jim Rogers is my hero. He also says don’t buy gold or silver yet, and he hedged his long positions off years ago. I think he is also looking to be a buyer in the price ranges that I mentioned above.
Greg, thanks for your excellent site.
Link to money velocity charts: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V
As Williams says, the way printed money mainly gets into the system is via bank loans. Thus, the money velocity charts are also indicating little money lending by banks = slow business activity = economic recession. Little will change here as escalating health insurance costs due to ObamaCare, inflation, and a declining manufacturing sector will continue to strip liquidity from the average US consumer — who generally powers our economy.
Greg,
More and more reports come out about uneployment dropping. I find this hard to believe because I know well educated and experienced people who are unemployed or underemployed.
Also if ( 200k-300k) are getting employed every month, then why is retail sales,home sales consumer goods, all falling.
Money velocity is also tanking, even if these are low-pay and part-time wouldn’t it put some money into the system and raise money velocity even slightly.
The claim is that US employment has added over 12 million jobs….huh?
Thanks
WD
Here are the real unemployment numbers according to David Stockman. The American people are so stupid they’ll believe anything. The Affordable Care Act is proof of that.
http://www.inquisitr.com/2218523/david-stockman-says-unemployment-is-really-42-9-percent/
What David Stockman, and several other idiots, are doing is WRONG! You do not count school kids, housewives who are taking care of children, disabled people and retired persons as being unemployed and that is who makes up the majority of those 93 million not in the labor force. They are NOT AVAILABLE for full-time work. However there are about 10-20 million of the 93 million that are available and should be included in the ranks of the unemployed. The rate of unemployment, as how it was calculated for the past 80 years, is really somewhere between 18 and 23 percent.
Jmiller
Many people have given up ARE NOT COUNTED.
Also there are many people working two part time jobs counted as two people working two jobs
I think this is a closer analysis than anyother ones done.
Jerry,
Thanks for that info, I love his site. Its # 2 after USA WD. I must have missed this.
It is a simple and great analysis…we are woefully short of full time employment in US. I always thought it was near 23-25% …I am seeing now it could be much higher.
My gut was right on this one, I cant let disinformation alter the truth.
Greg,
John Williams is rock solid. And like many who have held onto gold for any length of time – he is abused, flabbergasted, and worn-out by how fraudulently America has been made to seem to work. Those in power or comfort want it never to end. Those who are affected and repressed – are to the point of: bring it on!
Spiritually – with Sodomy legitimatized in America: the Rubicon is crossed. Man’s own devices, with a little evil help, is all it’ll take to set-up the conditions for Biblical prophesy to be realized. A One-World solution to solve the problems of mankind. The real problem is – the source of corruption that is affecting man, and is in man: cannot be cured by man. And the next big paradigm will not be as hopefully supposed; but even more rotten than the last. Yet the answer is still with us, still accessible: God calls not the righteous, but sinners to Repentance.
I could not agree more with everything he’s said.
Those who listen to the retired generals/politicians and corporate
economists (owned by the banks) like that of Paul Krugman who’s
probably betting to be the next treasury secretary ( I am sure he’ll be
just as good as Tiny Tim) can continue to bury their heads in the sand.
The Dow fell 350 points on the news that Greece would likely default. Imagine what it will do when the dollar and US bonds become worthless.
Imagine what it will do when ISIS kills everyone at a mall or elementary school.
Imagine what it will do when a nuke explodes in downtown New York or DC.
Hussein “open border” Obama gonna have a lot of ‘splainin to do.
Grafique. I agree and add. What will happen to stocks when Saudi ,and Russia announce they have made agreements outside the dollar. What about most of the trades worldwide dealing with China outside the dollar. How will Walmart stock there shelves ? How will the stock market react when California must evacuate millions of people due to drought, and what about Chinas gold announcement coming up.. What we are seeing is a house on fire. I left out a lot other things, feel free to add anyone.
diesel fuel follows the heating oil complex on the futures exchange . lower in summer higher in winter. if you want to play that market , go long in september , go short in may . it really is that simple. although if one expects a serious decline in the value of the us dollar in that fall timeline all bets are off. i reccomend buying prescious metals on weakness. just my 2 cents worth. p.s. i love your site Greg.
Pay attention to Greece this weekend. The world is in flux. Things are bad but in a way getting better. A lot of men and women are angry and worried right now. The message is going haywire.
Isn’t it ironical and sad that the secretive meetings behind closed doors are being aired publicly !! I LIKE THE GREEK PHILOSOPHY ….BETTER TO BE OPEN AND TRANSPARENT WITH MATTERS OF THE PUBLIC…..”WE ARE A BANKRUPT NATION AND THIS HAS GONE ON FOR FAR TOO LONG…IT IS NOT SUSTAINABLE”.
I agree …should be more than just your average ” Double Dipping – Greek Style”…weekend in the Med.
Greg,
It’s difficult to listen to John Williams because of his halting, mumbling style of speech. But his words are full of knowledge and financial wisdom. Listening to him is akin to digging for gold in hard ground. It can be tough going, but if you just keep digging, you occasionally come upon a few nuggets of real value.
Thanks for having him on. He’s among your better regular guests.
Please keep having him.
Blob,
Are you talking about my Google Ads which I have zero control over? Anything a troll can come up with to try to discredit a truth teller.
Greg