Russian Dollar Dump Could Crash Financial System-John Williams
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Economist John Williams says if Russia sells its U.S. dollar holdings, it could trigger hyperinflation. Could it collapse the financial system? Williams contends, “Yes, it certainly has a potential to do that. Looking outside the United States, there is something over $16 trillion in cash, or near cash. That’s about the same size as our GDP. . . Nobody has wanted to hold the dollar for some time. The dollar, fundamentally, is weak. It couldn’t be weaker. All the major factors are against it. It’s just a matter of what would trigger the massive selling. Nobody wants to hold it. The Russians start selling, and you have China indicating a general alliance here in terms of what’s transpiring. If the rest of the world believes this is what’s going to happen, people who have been wanting to get out of the dollar for some time very easily could front-run the Russians. The scare is on. People will try to get out of it as rapidly as they can.
What would happen if there was massive dollar dumping globally? Williams says, “It would be disastrous for our markets. All those excess dollars coming in, with bonds being sold, interest rates would spike. The stock market would sell off and we’d see inflation. To prevent that and try and keep things stable, the Fed would tend to buy up those Treasuries. It would intervene wherever it could to stabilize the circumstance. It’s going to be very difficult, and it’s going to be very inflationary. Williams goes on to say, “You have to keep in mind, back in 2008, we had one of the greatest financial crises the United States had ever faced. The system was on the brink of collapse at that point in time. What the Fed and the federal government did was spend every penny they could, anything they could create or anything they could guarantee. They did everything they could possibly do to keep the system from crashing. They guaranteed all bank accounts. So, they saved the system, but now what they did has not borne fruit. We have not seen an economic recovery. We have not seen a return of health to the banking system. So, the system is very vulnerable; and if the Russians carry through with their threat, you have, indeed, the risk of it collapsing the system.”
Is this the end of the world as we know it in the U.S.? Williams says, “It does have the effect of creating a hyperinflation, which I think it would. It’s the type of circumstance that will not allow life to continue as we know it because the U.S. is not able to handle hyperinflation. We’re not structured for it. Zimbabwe had one of the worst hyperinflations that anyone has ever seen. They were still able to function for a while because they get paid in a rapidly depreciating currency. It was so rapid it became like toilet paper overnight, but they would go to a black market and exchange it for dollars. We (the U.S.) don’t have a black market to escape from our dollars. Gold is probably the closest thing to that. Gold will tend to rally here as the dollar sells off, baring very heavy intervention by the central banks which you may see. The fundamentals will eventually dominate, and you will see a very weak dollar and very strong gold coming out of this.”
Don’t look for the U.S. dollar as the safe haven because Williams says, “Historically the dollar has been the safe haven in a political or financial crisis, but that hasn’t been the case for four or five years now. Instead, what you have seen is a flight to other traditional safe havens such as gold and the Swiss Franc. The dollar has lost its magic. Nobody wants to hold it. So, if the Russians follow through and convince the rest of the world that they are going to do it and it looks like China may join them, a lot of countries will want to dump dollars and get out ahead of the crowd.”
On the overall economy, Williams says, “It is rolling over, and the numbers are starting to show we are starting into a new recession. You should have an actual quarterly contraction in the first quarter GDP. One of the best indicators of that are retail sales, and they gave a clear recession signal in January. That’s the strongest recession signal since September of 2007, which is three months before the ‘Great Recession’ took place, and I’ll contend it never ended.”
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with John Williams of Shadowstats.com.
(There is much more in the video interview with John Williams.)
After the Interview:
Williams says that some are blaming the bad economic numbers recently on bad weather. Williams says that is nonsense and adds, “It is much more than bad weather.” Williams told me he expects “gold to take off in response to the flight from the U.S. dollar.” Williams says the flight from the U.S. dollar would have happened without the Russia/Ukraine crisis. Williams says, “The Fed will likely intervene to mitigate dollar problems but the effects are doomed,” and went on to predict the Fed taper of bond purchases would likely continue to help support the dollar. (Click here for the Shadowstats.com home page.)
My degree and area of study is the end of Empires. I know most people in their right minds believe that G.W. Bush took us into war for unknown personal reasons. But what I’m finding out the more that I study, is that he just may have been trying to keep our way of living in the USA from crashing. He may have bought us a little time before the shit hits the fan with our economy. Remember that all oil sold on the planet is sold in dollars. The first thing that was done by US Troops when they captured the capital of Iraq was to go in the the Ministry of Oil and change their books from trading in Euros back to selling oil in dollars. Why did Gaddafi suddenly get over thrown after 40 or so years?
He wanted to sell oil in a different currency. A gold coin that he planned to mint. The US Government armed his opposition and away he went. Remember Chavez in Venezuela?
He wanted to sell oil in another currency and out of the blue he gets cancer. Once oil is sold in another currency other than the dollar, this country will collapse like no other in history. The best way to explain it was at the end of the movie “Three Days of the Condor” Cliff Robertson was talking to Robert Redford. He said something like ” don’t you understand the American people don’t care about how or why we do it, they just want to turn on their electric lights and know they will come on, when they start their cars to know that they have gasoline in the tank.” What one must remember is no one in the history of the planet has ever lived like we have in the USA. If China wants to live like us they will need two more planet earths just to get the raw materials. It is simply unsustainable. I myself most likely won’t have to live through the future problems that will befall us all as I’m a senior and will check out hopefully before the shit hits the fan.
Good but spooky interview.
People need to listen to one of your regulars, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts interview.
It will reinforce what Mr. Williams says. Another failured medling disaster for Washington.
Putin’s interview on JSmineset today leaves an open end about whether he is upset enough to blast our dollar now or wait. Shrewd as he is, my guess he will wait until he needs to take more into his empire. But as Williams says some smaller holders of dollars may jump the gun. Doesn’t look real cheerful.
I have a question for you. Do you subscribe to the same plan as Jim Sinclair to get out of debt rather than hold paper or electrons in the bank?
I think the USA has done a great deal of good around the world over the last 60 years but they have also in the view of many undermined their importance and effectiveness by breeding deceit.
Power breeds arrogance…Arrogance breeds deceit… and Deceit always comes back to burn you.
In the end we all need to atone for our mistakes. Maybe it is time for the US to focus on their own mistakes and begin the slow process of re-building America within it’s own borders.
“the USA has done plenty of good around the world…”
Tell that to the Iraqis, Afghanis, Vietnamese, Libyans, Palestinians …..the list goes on and on.
Scrutinizing an early statement in interview. Had not heard anything about dumping $’s officially. Did Russians recently make that threat or do we just know they have the capability?
Iraqis – We misjudged their willingness to fight for themselves
Afghanis – Bush fought that war correctly; things changed when our strategy changed for the worse
Vietnamese – Shall we ask the boat people? The ones who lived, anyway…I got news for you, Sam, most people don’t want to be communists
Libyans – You threw this in out of ignorance
Palestinians – We haven’t fought them, but they are terrorists and attack our ally; I wouldn’t quibble with some drones or a thousand…
Sam, old boy, hate makes you look weak and stupid. That’s free advice for you.
Bravokilo, you give no facts, just ignorant, arrogant opinion.
Here’s one I can tell you: I meet people from all over the world, including anglo and European countries, that despise America and Americans. It’s not because we go around the world doing good deeds. And it’s not because they’re all ‘weak and stupid’. It’s because of Americans with your attitude.
If you want to debate facts you will lose.
Sorry, but Vietnam–falseflag (Gulf of Tonkin), Libya? (He was about to abandon the dollar for a gold-back currency — the dinar–like other countries–think Iran, 1954, Saddam Hussein, 1990/2003, “they” were about to sell their oil–heaven forbid–for a currency that was backed by something, NOT the dollar), Afghanistan? (Based upon the falseflag events of 9/11 orchestrated by Israel and the U.S.–Afgst’n / OML had NOTHING to do with it!) and on it goes. You need to brush up on American History–Start with books by Zinn, Perkins, Tillman, Bacevich and Brewer. On 9/11 start with Sadovsky (video) or any of the books by Hendries, Barrett, Griffin, Wood, or Bollyn. THEN, reply with more perspicacity than you exhibited by your post. Thanks!
Another great interview! I just can’t keep away from your site Greg.
Obama and his mindless blundering regime are lurching from one diplomatic disaster to another with monotonous regularity. In October 2013 they seemed intent on starting WW3 in Syria only to see the situation defused by Putin. Now only a few months later they seem intent , along with some of their European lapdogs, on starting a major war in the Ukraine right under Russia’s nose. The absolute hypocrisy and arrogance they exhibit along the way is now plain for the world to see. An increasing number of countries will no longer put up with these bullying tactics – they have had enough!
As John Williams points out $16 trillion held in liquid assets outside of the US is a massive amount. Any one of a dozen or so countries could start the unravelling of the US economy any time they wish by flooding the market.
The US$ is quickly losing its reserve status. Once it is gone it will be gone forever. The QE tool for prolonging the inevitable death of the US economy will no longer be in the toolbox – [perhaps the word ‘tool’ should be replaced by ‘band-aid’ ]. The only one left when QE has gone will be austerity.
I can’t help but think these crisis’s, no matter where they occur in the world, all trace back, in part, to one fundamental problem. i.e. The Fed being owned by a private banking cartel.
This institution has just celebrated its 100 year anniversary. How much longer are the American people going to let this nonsense continue or will it take a civil war for them to wake up and see the root of the problem.
What a well thought out post, unlike my meandering rant, today. Obama is a community organizer. He is a mean spirited, small minded man with delusion of grandeur. Will other leaders do, he confers and cajoles to no effect. But hey, he won the Noble Prize for Peace. It was laughable then and only more so now. But then maybe the Norwegians considers a man who kills his own citizens without trial by a drone as a peaceful man.
Keep posting, love your Kiwi point of view
Thank you George, I really enjoy your posts too.
Maybe you shouldn’t have got me started on Nobel Peace prize winners though. There have been some decidedly dodgy winners over the history of the award. I agree Obama’s really does take the cake however.
Others that spring to mind but not as ridiculous include Henry Kissinger, Cordell Hull and wait for it…..the EU. Yes thats right the EU. It is not even a person obviously, but a group of countries whose member Nations have been constantly involved in warmongering since its very inception.
It seems to me the Nobel peace prize often has very little to do with peace and a fair bit to do with war and agression. Mind you I suppose there is considerable irony in the fact that the man who created the NPP was Alfred Nobel – none other than the famous Norwegian industrial chemist who invented dynamite.
Geo, perhaps you have noticed that I bang on in every one of my posts about the Fed being owned by a banking cartel. However I notice that very few people over there engage or really want to talk about it much if not at all. Is this because US citizens fear for their safety if they question the legitimacy of this organisation or do they just not see it as the overwhelming problem as I do. The only other explanation for this is that they, like most NZers, simply can’t comprehend that it is not Govt owned because this would be just too ludicrous to contemplate – except perhaps in the movies.
I suppose it is all very well for me to bang on about it here in the ‘safety’ of NZ. After all I am ‘very small fry’ and wouldn’t get whacked or locked up
[ hopefully that is ]. Anyway my point is this. It would be very sad indeed if citizens and politicians in the US didn’t actively question the very existence of the Fed because of concerns for their own safety. I would love to get some feedback on this point.
Lets not forget Jimmy Carter, IPCC, UN, and Yasser Arafat. Do you think they meant to nominate them for the Nobel Prize for Incompetence?
Good morning Colin,
I believe the Federal Reserve is the most insidious and successful financial scam in the history of the world. When I talk to people about the Federal Reserve, I realize that most of my fellow Americans are dullards. They are inculcated to believe that the government is their friend and would never do anything that would be bad. And they believe in the face of monumental evidence to the contrary, the facts be dammed. There is the start of a awareness as even the most ardent supporter of the Government are unable to insulate themselves from the truth of the economy and the Federal Reserve’s lies about a recovery. If “recovery” is measured in negative numbers then we are in the midst of a recovery. I was taught negative was bad but with the governments ability to get the MSM’s talking heads to spout utter gibberish as fact, the majority is slow on the uptake.
Any politician or person of merit that takes an anti-Federal Reserve position is immediately and ruthlessly marginalized. There was a partial audit of the Federal Reserve a few years ago and it came to light that despite the Federal Reserve’s assertions that they had only spent a few trillion to bail out the banks, 16 trillion dollars were given to banks in the USA and around the world.
It bothers me when I see people post bizarre conspiracy theories such as Geo. HW Bush being replaced by a Nazi and how Prescott Bush was part of a Nazi Banking cabal that is still controlling the world. I find the facts much more interesting. The only banking cabal that is support by evidence is the Federal Reserve. I honestly believe that some of the crackpot theories posted here are posted by elements attempting to marginalize Greg but perhaps that’s a poorly thought out conspiracy theory of mine.
I do find the government’s version of JFK’s assassination suspect. A cut and dried assassination by Lee Harvey Oswald would not require records to be sealed for seventy five (75) years. That, in itself, is a smoking gun. JFK had challenged the Fed by issuing $1 bills based not on our debt but on our silver reserves. Funny but these didn’t hang around long under LBJ. I currently see our government having more in common with Russian’s government than the Republic our forefathers fought so hard to set up.
I do believe that our country should actively protect our boarders and our interests abroad. Bush (2) went into Iraq, won quickly and had no peace plan. A squandered victory that caused the people that initially welcomed us as liberators to hate us and reminisce about how their children had safety, clean water and electricity under Saddam. I remember seeing an Iraqi saying the above and even say something to the effect that Saddam had imprisoned his cousin but that he was a trouble maker and deserved it. What is the point of replacing one despot with another?
Afghanistan is another mess were we snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. I was dismayed by Bush making so many colossal mistakes until Obama took over and showed me what an amateur Bush was at disaster.
Sorry, I drifted a little. Another Federal Reserve fiasco is our economy. The Fed has inflated bubble after bubble that has in turn created more debt and money that they get a piece of. My fellow Americans don’t understand conflicts of interest (or even simple or compound interest for that matter. Heck, they can’t add 2+3 without a calculator). Why would any sane government set up the private banks in charge of the central bank? No conflict of interest there.
President Reagan’s Fed Reserve guy understood and was honorable. The liberals and communists don’t understand that an economy is dynamic and can not be managed to such a degree that there are not down turns. Their attempts to effect an economy without “pain” has exacerbated the downturns and artificially inflated bubbles that have destroyed our economies over the last twenty years. That and Americans companies shortsighted next quarter mentality who moved good paying manufacturing jobs to China, India, and Mexico just so they could add a few extra cents to their EPS and collect fat bonuses.
I have always admired the NZ people as they remind me of the self reliant people that defined America fifty years ago. one of my favorite NZ moments was in the 1980’s when your PM upon landing in Australia was besieged by a hostile press and questions about the exodus of NZ’er immigrating to Australia and he responded that he reckoned that it increased the IQ of both countries.
Are you on the North or South Island? Keep posting the truth as you see and I hope that my opinions are not so incendiary as to put you off. You asked what I thought and I told you.
I am a beef farmer from the far north near the Bay of Islands.
Your comments are by no means incendiary . To the contrary we are very much on the same page in much of our thinking.
It is such a tragedy where the US is now heading both diplomatically and financially under the current administration. Just imagine where the US economy could have been today if people like the Kennedy brothers had not been taken out.
Their closest modern day equivalent in terms of courage and commitment would in my view have to be Ron Paul. This guy to me is a hero when he risked his own personal safety in challenging the legitimacy of the Fed. IF …. he been elected President a man of his character and intellect could have almost singlehandedly turned around America’s economy and diplomatic standing in the world. Instead the US ended up with the two most bumbling incompetent Presidents of all time.
Let us not underestimate the courage of Greg and the contribution that USA Watchdog makes to inform the people and promote and grow awareness and discussion amongst us.
President Kennedy signed an Executive Order to end the Fed and was murdered before it could take place
Hi, I’m norwegian. I just like to comment that when Obama got his peace prize, many in Norway were really surprised. Later peace prize winners have given nutrition to those who claims that Nobel’s peace prize is more about politics than about peace.
BTW: Great article by the way.
ok to listen to Mr Williams..But Taper should hurt the dollar, I think. That is because who will buy US Bonds etc? if not the Fed
Mr Williams may be right, but I doubt it. Dollar goes down from Taper – u heard it here!
I dont listen to John Williams anymore. He has been saying there will be hyperinflation every year since 2009, and each time claiming we were just 12 months away. How many years in a row can you be wrong before you stop making the same claims? Greg, please interview Martin Armstrong, he will explain why there CAN”T be hyperinflation in the USA. Martin Armstrong has been correct about most forecasts since the USSR collapse, he even got the 1987 stock market crash correct to the EXACT day. Martin Armstrong has made many forecasts since 2008, and all has gone as he has predicted, so if you could please interview him, I think you will get a clearer understanding of why the USA has not and will not go into hyperinflation.
Martin Armstrong was so correct in his forecast he bankrupted himself. He was good in a slow information environment but he spent a long time in jail (which I think was unwarranted, by the way) during which said gold was the bomb. Now he is spurning gold. And not all has gone as he predicted. As someone who read his jailhouse papers and his other publications, he doesn’t have anywhere near a 100% accuracy rating. He has made some great calls and some real stinkers. His forecasts are sometimes so broad it like those by Nostradamus, you can pick anything going the right way and say he predicted it. If you search the net, you can find many magazine articles where he predicted things that were not remotely correct, like his investments on behalf Japanese firms that crashed and burned.
I give Mr. Armstrong his due but do a little research before you spout how accurate he is. And research outside of his website if you will. Its easy to find
In a history perspective, 5 years is not that long. His prediction of hyperinflation will come true because of two scenarios–(1) inflation is here and at least 7%, and (2) when the dollar loses its status, what will someone do with their excess cash? They will need to hurry and buy something as inflation increases fastly as recently in Argentina. Then more panic happens and people dump dollars for goods. And the World dumps dollars to buy what they can. When it starts, it will be a Black Hole for the dollar….
I agree, Williams has beat the drum consistently, and it has yet to happen. But he provides great info.
Armstrong, I can’t say. I find the personality he conveys in his writing to be so unpleasant that I can no longer bear to follow him.
I haven’t see the US Treasury foreign holder list lately, but Russia as I recall doesn’t own a significant amount of the total. Russia’s dumping to treasuries in itself may be a non event unless it causes others to dump. The Russians were quoted as saying they would convince others.
If Russia in league with others were to start dumping tbonds triggering a financial/dollar crisis, certainly the Us would respond.
Indeed the Fed could buy what the Russians sell as they new QE- at least the purchase volume would be smaller in size!
Hard to tell how any of this might play out but it may cause a crisis.
Historically in times of crisis investors flock toward US Treasuries and gold. Recently some buy bitcoin.
Buying treasuries made sense when the US was an undisputed super power and had a manageable amount of debt. Even during the financial crisis on 2008 which highlighted weakness in the US financial system itself, investors flocked to the safety of US. Treasuries . It doesn’t make much sense now.
Gold was dumped during the 2008 financial crisis as many needed to raise cash to pay margin calls. Gold rebounded and soared soon after TARP and the first couple of QE’s were announced. Gold dropped hard when last round of QE was announced, suggesting strongly manipulation was at play, as more QE should have ben positive for gold.
A small number of people now buy the digital currency bitcoin , on the faulty reasoning that unlike the dollar, bitcoin is limited in supply and has no central issuer. A limited amount of nothing is not something that creates value. In a crisis, governments may also choke off access to the internet, intercept (irrespective of encryption) and disrupt bitcoin or any crypto currency that threatens their own currencies’ hegemony.
Will be interesting to see what becomes the safe haven asset of choice during the next financial crisis. I would think silver, as central banks don’t own it and larger numbers of people can own it as it is nearly 70x less expensive than gold.
As we have seen with the recent bitcoin thefts at the largest Bitcoin exchange Mt Gox and two other bitcoin exchanges this week -Poloniex amd Flexicoin, it’s a lot easier to steal/disrupt virtual currencies than it is to rob physical assets that are stored in Brinks facilities or Swiss vaults.
” A limited amount of nothing is not something that creates value. ”
Sing it Billy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_DV54ddNHE
China is the elephant in the room of who holds treasuries: 1,268 billion
Russia holds 138.6 billion
(Figures as of Dec 2013)
Russia ranks 11th with over 85 Billion in Treasury notes.
They lost 50+ billion in one day in their market crash after invading Ukraine!
That neutralizes their ammo if they were thinking of firing shots at us with dumping treasuries, think about that!
It is very important not to underestimate the G8 answer to Putin, they are like what Catherine Austin Fitts once said, puppy training G20, Russia is threatened to lose its seat in G8, their economy and stock market took a hit in one day to the tune of 50 billion dollars, investors in Russia do not like this, Putin is losing Kazakhstan that went publicaly to denounce the intervention in Ukraine, polls in moscow shows disapproval to Putin 75%. If Russians see blood shed in Ukraine like in Syria you can bet your money that Putin’s ass is gone.
It is dicy but Putin is been delivered a big blow!
Unlike Obama, Putin doesn’t give a rats arsenal about polls or about what the world thinks about him. Also unlike Obama, Putin prefers to be feared instead of being liked.
We’ll have to wait and see which of us is right on this one.
I agree with Galaxy; there’s too much KGB trickery in Putin, so that even if the Russian opinion turns against him, all the dead people in Moscow will keep him voted in office.
I could be wrong but it is a mistake to read Putin as a former KGB, rather it will be more constructive for our leaders to read him as a religious eastern orthodox man that is ambitious to reinstate the Russian empire they once had.
That is very very crucial in gauging Putin and understand his moves.
He is going after opening the sea to Russia, we need to understand this, he wants to keep Tartoos in Syria, he got Cyprus after the fiasco in their banks there and HE WANTS ISTANBUL!!!!
Let me repeat that please,
HE WANTS TURKEY, HE WANTS ISTANBUL!
That is the neck of the bottle that is suffocating his fleet from roaming the sea. Hagia Sophia is in the heart of every Russian who are now the sponsors of the eastern Orthodox christian church in Jerusalem, so if he gets Turkey you will find that bear extending its paw allover the eastern Mediterranean sea.
He will not stop at Ukraine, may be that is why Poland now is very nervous since they know they could be next,
and if we keep in mind the Russian defeat in Kosovo we need to calculate the possibility of eyeing that part of the Balkan to secure that VITAL AND CRUCIAL water passage between the black sea and Mediterranean sea.
He has weaknesses too, and he knows when to bluff and when to make the calculated move, he has a POKER face that is difficult to read.
His weakness is the Russian Oligarchs that are going to DUMP HIM if they are hurt financially, that is not me who is saying it, It is Kasparov the famous chess player:
“Garry Kasparov: Cut Off the Russian Oligarchs and They’ll Dump Putin”
Actually that was a lie, Putin approval is at an all time high… over 70%
Check it out.
Here is the link from the Times about an article that Putin may have 4 reasons to lose in Ukraine’s affair one of them is the loss of the approval of the Russians on his stance of military invasions to it:
“Russian President Vladimir Putin’s incursion into Ukraine’s Crimea region is deeply unpopular at home, Kremlin-backed polling found in recent research”
and that poll was done by “The Kremlin’s own pollster”
Let me repeat it so when next time you are rude and call me lier ask first for my source of info instead of personal insults.
So here it is repeated to you:
THE KREMLIN’S OWN POLLSTERS
And here is the link of the poll done by the Kremlin:
“По мнению наших сограждан, России не следует вмешиваться во внутриполитический конфликт в Украине. Большинство россиян считает невозможным подобное развитие событий в нашей стране.
МОСКВА, 24 февраля 2014 г. Всероссийский центр изучения общественного мнения (ВЦИОМ) представляет данные о том, как, по мнению наших сограждан, России следует реагировать на ситуацию в Украине, и как россияне относятся к возможности возникновения подобных событий в нашей стране.
Большинство россиян (73%) считает, что Россия не должна вмешиваться в конфликт между властями и оппозицией в Украине, поскольку это внутреннее дело народа этой страны. Данную точку зрения чаще других поддерживают сторонники ЛДПР (82%), бюджетники (79%), госслужащие (77%), студенты (77%), жители средних городов (78%). Лишь 15% опрошенных полагают, что российские власти могут оказать поддержку украинским коллегам в подавлении попыток незаконного захвата власти. Подобное мнение наиболее распространено среди приверженцев «Справедливой России» (30%) и работников коммерческого сектора (20%).
В России подобные массовые акции протеста невозможны – уверены три четверти наших сограждан (75%). Жители городов-миллионников, также как и селяне (по 79%) не верят в возможность подобного развития событий. Лишь москвичи и петербуржцы не столь в этом уверены (64%). Вероятность формирования аналогичной ситуации в нашей стране допускают немногие (15%), и то только при определенном стечении обстоятельств: если народ будет доведен до крайней нищеты или в случае тяжелого затяжного экономического кризиса (соответственно, 30% и 25% от числа тех, кто считает, что в России возможны подобные массовые протесты). При этом подавляющее большинство россиян (94%) не желает повторения украинского сценария событий в нашей стране.
Инициативный всероссийский опрос ВЦИОМ проведён 1-2 февраля 2014 г. Опрошено 1600 человек в 130 населенных пунктах в 42 областях, краях и республиках России. Статистическая погрешность не превышает 3,4%.”
“According to our fellow citizens , Russia should not interfere in the internal political conflict in Ukraine. Most Russians believe the impossible , this development in our country.
MOSCOW, February 24, 2014 All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center ( VCIOM) presents information about how , in the opinion of our fellow citizens , Russia should respond to the situation in Ukraine and the Russians about the possibility of the occurrence of such events in our country .
The majority of Russians (73%) believes that Russia should not interfere in the conflict between the government and the opposition in Ukraine , because it is an internal matter for the people of this country. This view are more likely to support the LDPR (82%) , budget (79%) , civil servants (77%) , students (77% ), residents of medium-sized cities ( 78%). Only 15% of respondents believe that the Russian authorities could support Ukrainian colleagues in suppressing illegal attempts to seize power . Such opinion is most prevalent among the followers of “Fair Russia ” (30 %) and employees of the commercial sector ( 20%).
In Russia, such mass protests are impossible – believe three-quarters of Russians ( 75%). Residents of megacities , as well as the villagers (by 79% ) do not believe in the possibility of such developments. Only Moscow and St. Petersburg is not so sure ( 64%). Probability of formation of a similar situation in our country allow a few (15%) , and then only under certain circumstances : if the people will be driven to extreme poverty or in the case of severe protracted economic crisis ( respectively , 30 % and 25 % of those who consider that in Russia the possibility of such mass protests ) . The vast majority of Russians (94 %) did not want to repeat the Ukrainian scenario of events in our country.
The initiative Russian opinion polls were conducted on 1-2 February 2014 interviewed 1,600 people in 130 villages in 42 regions of Russia. The statistical error does not exceed 3.4 %.”
GOD HELP OUR LEADERS SINCE WE HAVE MORE PUTIN SUPPORTERS THAN THE RUSSIANS THEMSELVES.
Investing in the US has become risky business, step out of line with the US political elite and it’s “freeze their assets” time.
So right you are. When Obama used the SWIFT system as a weapon, I knew that those outside of America, even our allies, would look for something as an alternative. Obama will go down in history as the first communist black President and likely the worst President since the founding plus a hundred years. That is if we make it another 100. Obama is doing everything he can to make sure we don’t make it.
Love the Emerald Isle and I will drink a few on St, Patrick’s Day in honor of my Irish friends.
Greg, the market rallied yesterday as if there were no Ukraine. I not sure what planet Wall Street is living on, but I believe a bubble is getting stretched to its theoretical maximum. The dollar is becoming toast no matter what Putin decides to do, crash it now or punt and wait for a latter time. Geo-politically the U.S. is losing ground, the U.S. will need a miracle to stay a superpower long term such as a new breakthrough in science for energy whereby oil would not be of much use any longer or perhaps a weapon that is not atomic, such as a space or high flying aircraft type ray gun which could zap whole divisions & nuclear sites. Frankly, the Russian intelligence is probably very good and Putin wouldn’t be doing what he is doing if the U.S. had such a weapon in operation or if he thought Russia’s oil wasn’t going to be of prime importance for the near future. But no matter what happens, like it or not, THE BEAR IS BACK and must be dealt with. Many Biblical theorist believe that Russia is the “King of the North”, and if so, Russia will continue to get stronger in order to fulfill its Biblical end times role while the U.S. fades from importance as many empires have done in the past. I believe we are witnessing the late great American economic empire, the greed of the bankers & politicians he.e took it down in about 40 years overall. Hyperinflation or not the America I grew up in and was the land of my fathers for 200 years is changing rapidly as the middle class working people have lost out to the bankers & greed of the paid for politicians. Look around America, cracks in the system are everywhere all you have to do is look. Russia will do as it will, Obama’s threat to put an economic sanctions in place was trumped by Putin’s assertion of selling treasures, etc. Watch for a diplomatic solution for Obama to save face all the while Putin keeps Eastern Ukraine; indicative of Syria last summer.
What’s stopping the Fed from buying back whatever amount of dollars Russia wants to dump by printing that amount up in a keystroke? And if the dollar is not a safe haven, exactly where else will the .01% put their money? The Elite are not going to go down without using every tool in their basket, whatever the cost.
A better idea would be to have the FED funnel the money into EUR (say Belgium) and have them buy up the disposed of treasuries. That way the IMF can overview the process from their offices in Brussels. Seems plausible.
exactly where else will the .01% put their money
Gold and property. 50% or more of all real-estate transactions are cash. That’s the 1% , not the middle class. As much as the Elites might want the dollar to succeed, there is too much headwind (debt) for it to survive in its current form
Luisa I think you are right, the fed will buy all money dumped on them. That is a big deal because Russia will bring China with them. Without Russian products being sold with dollars there will be no fee of use income to the fed. not to mention the goods they trade with other countries.Without dollar trade with China we should just turn out the lights, party over. Without goods bought from China with dollars we would not be posting on this site very long. The BRIC countries make up 25% of world trade. I may be wrong in my view, but as I see it this is a big game changer for world trade.
I think that there is too much cash in the form of paper bank notes in foreign hands for the Federal Reserve to prevent damage.
Greg: John Williams and many people are saying there might be a threat other countries DUMPING THE US DOLLAR. But how can a country “dump” the dollar? What’s the mechanism? Wouldn’t some other country need to buy it to take it off their hands? Or, do they say to US and Britain, “Here’s your money back,” at which time the answer could simply be “No.”? I don’t understand how a country can decide to DUMP a reserve currency?? If you can help clarify that would be much appreciated. Thanks, ken.
“Dumping” This is where the dollars come home to roost!
Some say hyperinflation is impossible (Armstrong) and will not occur. This is an absolute statement and is quite assinine to make. Inflation is a purely market economy occurance, whereas hyperinflation is purely a currency confidence loss crisis, resulting in that currencies failure.
Dumping the US dollar by the world, would most definately cause very severe inflation in the US if not hyperinflation. Of the two, hyperinflation is to be preferred because of its short lived duration. Whereas severe inflation drags out the timeline to intollerable lengths, causing heart-rending suffering amongst those most vulnerable. The poor.
The chances to head off the forthcoming rebalancing have all been squandered. The opportunities in turn were 1984, 1989, 1999, and the latest 2008. Each session of ‘kicking the can’ has piled on more trials and tribulations, that must be fought through to find the new tomorrow. Good luck.
You buy hard assets or convert to another fiat currency in a very short space of time.
No warning, no agreements, no contracts. Markets don’t have time to react…dumping (in scale) causes imbalances and can create a cascading effect (to the downside) triggering all sorts of events. Unless there are buyers of equal magnitude ready to support, the fall could be a watershed moment for the USD. Dumping is a serious threat to the USD reign as KING dollar.
They will not ‘dump’ all of the dollar based assets at once. This would cause a collapse in bond prices immediately. We can’t sell one or two billion at an auction. So if Russia decided to sell all of the US treasuries at once it would halt the market. Interest rates will skyrocket and the treasuries would be near worthless. How do you think the Chinese would feel? Russia just wiped out 1.2 Trillion of Chinese assets in one day. Right now 1.2 trillion can buy a lot.
If I was Russia I would slowly sell the treasuries off a little each month and be thankful if I could get rid of all of them at a good price. Or get things in place to sell bonds and then invade the Ukraine to help things along. Because the US is still seen as a safe haven the money would flow into US treasuries, thus helping Russia get rid of their treasuries.
its called foreign exchange. They sell the dollars and buy Euros, Rubles, etc
That is a great question Ken. Everyone here provides a bit of an answer so I will take a stab as I would like to know as well. When bought, the purchaser gets interest on them (certain %). Like an investment and there is a term (1,3,10 years?) that they must be held. They are “cash” are they not?
1.outlookingin…dumping ultimately leads to those T-bills/bonds coming back home.
IF, they end up stateside. does someone (fed, UST) have to buy them?
2.LM…whoever has them can buy pm’s, corn, wheat, coffee (commodities) IF those with commodities will accept them.
3. Geo T…They can be sold for any other currency IF some decides the want $ instead of rubles, euro, francs, etc.
The dollar still seems to be “the best horse at the glue factory” but for how much longer is this possible? No one knows the exact day. If the purchase terms of the $ are not up, they just sit until maturity…then they can be used to buy whatever. The chance of all terms maturing at the same time are “slim”. IF they all end up back in the US and the fed or whoever doesn’t buy them, do they actually just get “dumped” into circulation starting a hyperinflationary trend? (or, as I asked above, does the fed have to buy them?) I realize that more $’s of less value will be needed to purchase any item and those on fixe incomes will suffer…hell most of us will suffer! Unless we are prepared for such an event in the right way.
I realize that the fed can/ will do whatever they want. Can they just destroy these $? Does this mean that if they do, interest rates will go up? (Isn’t this why they began printing in the first place, to keep interest rates low?)
Eventually, all of the evil will line up and the shining star of freedom, prosperity and dreams will become a nightmare that frankly, we deserve…best to all of you.
It is confusing. Anyone willing to take a partial or full stab to give Ken and I a better insight?
Please don’t anyone reply that ‘bit “computer program” coin’ is the answer…best description that I have heard of it yet, lmao!!!…Our host, the USA Watchdog.
There are two parts to the question. None of which are easy to answer.
-How does a country exit its holdings in USD/UST’s
-Is Dumping a Reserve Currency possible.
They both bring up many issues insofar as the holder nation is concerned. Typically it would receive the the greatest amount of negative reaction combined with loss of wealth. In the case of Russia doing the unthinkable, it would suffer enormous financial repercussions. Not only by virtue of the reaction of the USA(freezing assets) but also of the financial markets and those other large holders of USD’s (Japan, China) having to suffer tremendous losses concurrently. Not sure if the market could handle a bid of $200BLN+ UST without prior warning whilst averting a severe spike in interest rates. Interest rates spiking causes tremendous amounts of market contagion (think derivatives). It filters through everything. In saying that everything has a price and the fortunate thing with UST is that they are the most liquid in the market. Eventually they would have a bid. At what price …perhaps substantially lower implying higher yields…….= Financial market CHAOS. As a side note the FED witnessing these events would necessarily step up to the plate and generate $$$$ as required. IN doing so it will however sound the death knell for the USD. The amount of dollars required to fill the void is unfathomable.
The threat of “Dumping” has to be taken seriously. More so if China is a party to the process of undermining the USD.
One thing is for certain through these antagonising comments….that any further expansion of counterfeiting on the part of the FED, will not be supported by Russia, China, Brazil or Japan. The trouble comes when the FED will become the outright buyer of last resort as these bonds mature…because there is ZERO chance that the Treasury will have any capacity to repay its obligations.
The FED having already painted itself into a corner now faces a 400lb Gorilla (Russia) in the other corner and an Elephant (China) sitting on the sidelines ready to play tag.
LM & Geo T…thanks for your replies. What a mess. Just a big game to steal from those who are honest.
We live in a small world. We don’t venture more than 50 miles from home. If we do, it is for damn good reason.
The globalism, currency wars, world reserve currency is doing absolutely nothing for 95% of the earth or people.
Prepare for the worst, pray for the best… is a very simple plan to follow. When this all blows, I know that only the strong will survive…that is how the planet works.
Take care gentlemen.
3. Geo T…They can be sold for any other currency IF some decides the want $ instead of rubles, euro, francs, etc
With the greed of bankers and worldwide arbitrage, there will be someone who accepts the dollars and brings them here to spend. Albeit at a level that will choke all but the desperate, which in turn will trigger more people to become desperate.
Also, while the T-bills don’t all come to term at the same time, I know you are aware that they are traded daily on the secondary market. If someone or some event can push up the yield to what it should be (I am thinking late 70’s early 80’s interest rates approaching 20%), then all bets are off and maybe the government will crash and burn. Which could be a good thing or a bad thing. The likelihood of it being good are minuscule but it exists; but then, it would require the average Joe to step up and take a stand against the current tyranny imposed upon us.
I agree with you that the Fed can do anything they want. Where we diverge is that their action may not precipitate the effect that they wish. I think the morons on the Fed Res Board are smart enough to be terrified of our “real” economic situation and may take increasingly unusual, divergent and disparate actions. I don’t pretend to have the answers to all of your questions as I don’t have all the answers to mine. And you have answered some of my questions with your many posts. I think the watchdog community is enriched by your presence. Intelligent people can and do agree to disagree on questions and answers. I find that if you are answering all the questions you ask yourself, you are not asking the right questions.
i said in a post in the previous thread that do not get surprised if you find China aligned with US .
We know how much Japan hates China and there is no love lost between the two.
Well here is an early sketch of an alliance forming as we speak, I guess the Japanese did not forget WWII:
There is no way China will help us. Russia and Chins will help themselves first and each other second. As for China and Japan, both need what Russia is selling and keep in mind that China and Russia just signed an $85 billion oil deal.
your point is well taken however China is been very ambiguous recently, they are releasing a very very political statements regarding Ukraine that could be interpreted both ways.
Nonetheless your point is valid and very well taken!
If no one wants US $$, the bid price on the FOREX goes to zero (no one is bidding to buy $$$)
NCdirt, you are correct. There will always be someone willing to buy them as long as they can be used to buy something of value. When real inflation hits (John Williams pegs it at 10-11%) people (FX traders) will try to get ahead of it by offering obscene exchange rates and desperate people will take it just like people will pay obscene amounts for gold and silver trying to hedge their bets while the American dream fails. At some point, there will be so much risk on the side of the person buying dollars that they wont take them at any price.
Greg, can’t help but mentioning that this is the first of your videos where you looked worried. Like the SHTF is in the backdrop.
James Kunstler wrote an excellent piece entitled: “Are You Crazy To Continue Believing In Collapse?” http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/84902/crazy-continue-believing-collapse
It’s a great read and why we should stay alert.
Great link. Thanks for posting it. Better to be on the early side of this than the late side.
Great link Rod. I hope everyone reads it.
Kunstler gets it…fully. First time I when to his site I had to look at his garden.
I love gardens.
I like his take on some things but he has preached peak oil until technology passed him by. Is he still preaching peak oil?
Assad is winning in Syria, and it will be interesting to see how Ukraine plays in!
How might our military be organized to help the US citiizens, when this all falls apart, to make sure all of our politican’s can’t leave town and raid our final dollors in our US treasury into of-shore accounts. Or is the military corrupt too?
Should John Williams prediction begin the Western System would protect itself quickly by having a Bank Holiday plus freeze the value of dollar / pound. It would be anyone’s guess what happens next but could be anything from a devaluation to default(s).
Sorry but they cant freeze the value of the U$D or the GBP. Oh they can have a bank holiday here but elsewhere in the world Foreign Exchange will continue driving down the value of both to oblivion.
Hi Greg. I always love hearing what John Williams has to say ’cause it’s based on actual, irrefutable numbers.
IMHO, Putin’s threat to sell off Russia’s USD reserves was a shot across the bow – a reminder to the US that if they keep on meddling in the Ukraine’s business, there will be devastating consequences. Obama hasn’t done anything too egregious yet, so Putin took the opportunity to give him a reality check. However, Putin’s threat did remind the rest of the world just how vulnerable the USD is and that alone could start a run for the exits.
Seriously, this all makes for good conversation but none of this is going to happen. An all out assault on the dollar would be an act of war and Russia and or china can in no way compete with our military technology. Even Obama as incompetent and wimpy as he may be would be forced to take immediate military action to protect the dollar as the worlds reserve currency. Neither side wants to get the other two upset. Russia will keep Crimea and they will throw Obama a bone for a face saving measure. False alarm.
Yes there will be some inflation but not all that bad.
Why – because you can’t try and forecast a fiat system using rules that were established on a real money system.
First ask yourself where will people go if they think the dollar is not good.
Every system in the world is run by reserve banks which all work together.
Forget about countries and think about how the world money system is now bound together. Saber rattling means little as there will not be major confrontations.
If any of the big players goes under the rest will follow.
Such an event would be as bad as all out Nuclear War.
Should people try to dump dollars the banks would stop it.
The real problem is debt!
Again I say the Federal Reserve will have to purchase all the US debt and retire it to go forward.
Why is because at some point they will have to raise interest rates and if they don’t zero out the US debt they can not raise interest rates.
By doing it they allow the game to continue and all faith in the dollar is restored by those that have doubts. After all less dollars means a stronger dollar.
Think of this as a very very very slow train wreck.
How are the banks going to stop it? Not take dollars? That would double or triple the speed of the loss in value. Currency is a faith based commodity. So are banks.
As a Canadian, we tend to regard events, news, politics of the US as a mirror or even part and parcel of America.
Our economies, dollar and resources and financial stability are different, I presume because our banks were never de-regulated.
As the value of the US dollar collapses in terms of the Canadian dollar, what happens to a Canadian holding gold and silver?
If gold rises in terms of the US dollar, due not to gold being more valuable but due to the US dollar LOSING value, and if the Canadian dollar does NOT lose value in terms of the US dolar, how will WE fare in a US dollar collapse in regard to our gold and silver holdings?
A financial collapse would likely trigger an economic collapse and as silver is primarily an industrial metal, would not its demand and thus price drop, instead of rise?
Randolph, you and only you must decide what is of real value for what may be coming. Form a plan of survival for you and your family…for as long as possible.
Every area is different. Some areas are way ahead of the game. City areas will have little to offer. Rural areas much better. Maximize your opportunities to survive as best as you can.
Having no idea as to your assets/abilities, you must focus on food, shelter, water, protection of it. If you feel you have enough of that, your long term plan must include some type of wealth. PM’s are it for many. History proves it.
All paper fiat ends up worth nothing. Look at things simply based on how the earth works, what she has/can provide you and the value that she holds.
Read Rodsters link above, and article by James Howard Kunstler…it will help a lot.
IMHO, I think having a real world skill will be of value as well.
Silver at its current silly price of 21 dollars and change is a byproduct of the mines of other minerals, it will not be cost effective to have mines specifically for silver since miners will lose money on it,
If a collapse commences then yes all industries slows down and there will not be production of silver since it is a byproduct to the becoming idling mines of lets say iron, copper … etc! which will make it more scarce and eventually more valuable.
If this is part of the “plan”…expect a reset to occur first. they can’t allow a dollar collapse, because the negative effect of 16 trillions in assets losing a percentage of its value is super deflationary at first…isn’t it?
Here is an excellent blog….
Losing value is inflation, gaining value is deflation. The dollar isn’t going to deflate when people run the other way.
Excellent interview Greg. Good, timely topic and concise reporting. John is a great guest. Keep up the great work.
Greg, Mr. Williams raises an interesting point, which is dollar repatriation. These dollars are effectively OUTSIDE the carefully crafted corral the FED erected for managing the QE printing binge/interest rate suppression game. While the QE trillions are effectively contained and kept out of circulation (this is why the big banks are running historically large surplus balances, because the method of containment is interest paid to them on excess reserves by the FED), a repatriation of even a portion of the $16 trillion Mr. Williams cites would be, by definition, OUTSIDE of the FED’s containment mechanism. Inflation, perhaps even hyperinflation, could certainly result, unless the FED would commit to increasing its balance sheet to the degree necessary, an almost unimaginable feat. It is what my Mom would call a “sticky wicket”. Best always. PM
Greg, thank you for this excellent interview! As always, you open our minds before the mass media can present their corporate bosses opinions. By watching the mass media these days we come to a quick conclusion that they are not reporting the news any longer but making up the news at it suites their corporate bosses.
JUST IN, JW HTL
Jim Willie CB
7:57 AM (5 hours ago)
on 911 at least 25 people dived out windows amidst fiery flames in their offices
none hit the ground, all disintegrated in mid-air
Do Judy Wood’s points make sense now?!
Hmmm….did any remember what happened…the buildings fell on them. No one retrieved the bodies while the fire was raging.
You know me always causing trouble with those pesky things called facts.
guess we will find out in eternity. 🙂
Jim Willie CB
12:01 AM (4 hours ago)
disintegrated in mid-air from 100s of advanced tech micro nuke devices
all car & truck engine blocks melted in a 3 to 5 block radius from WTCenter also
hard to hide such stuff
many repair shops and scrap yards talked
dont worry, as all witnesses at the site are being systematically killed
just like the Grassy Knoll victims in Dallas in 1963
Now what the Jackass wrote might sound ludicrous;
I guess we could say this micro neuk teck info is far fetched, we only need to go back to the wright bros, and a guy who writes the “THE DERBY CRONICLES” we can call him the “THE BORO; states in the future we will see jets take off vertically, fly 3 times the speed of sound, change course in mid flight, fire missles at 6 times the speed of sound, and a larger missle that can travel mach21, ,men men in space, or alex grahm bell, that we would send pics over phone w/o wires, text on computers, there would be a G499, (MINI ME” to say, not possible. OR a guy walks up to NOAH and tells him the ARK DESIGN will spawn cruise ships, and cargo transporting oil, using the ark design, we can call him “THE DONKEY” and his scribblings, ” THE TURBIN SCROLLS”
🙂 AL OLS
Sorry just got to your “might sound ludicrous”.
How about J. Verne predicting nuclear subs. I don’t think it sounds ludicrous…it sounds like the posts professing that America is being run by the Nazi extraterrestrials. Mach 21 is about 5 miles/sec , last time I checked we were having problems with Mach 15 😉
I read a lot of sci-fi but I am going to have to put this in the “no chance in Hell ” category.
As you know, I don’t have to agree with my friends on everything. After all, what fun would it be to socialize with people you agreed with on every point?
We can put a nuke in a brief case as of 15-20 years ago. I am not saying we cannot make small nukes, I saying that there were no nukes used on 911. I have friends that were in the Amex WFC building when 911 happened next door and they somehow survived in the face of all these nukes going off.
But keep me in the loop, you likely saved me from making a decision based on flawed information or reasoning.
If you check you’ll see they are missing hundreds of bodies due to being burned and pulverized.
“100’s of micro nuke devices” Al, if JW wrote this to you ( and I believe he did) he just HUDES (as in Karen) his credibility. The amount of hard radiation and radioactive residue (cesium 137, iodine 131 , etc) you couldn’t hide.
Thanks for opening my eyes on JW. I need to review where I thought he was right.
keep the info coming my friend
did u try googling missle, mach 21?
MACH 21 – YouTube
► 0:55► 0:55
Jul 1, 2013 – Uploaded by ArmedForcesUpdate
Russian Topol M WORLDS FASTEST NUCLEAR MISSILE 26,000 KM/H (MACH 21) Missile defense is usless. ArmedForcesUpdate·322 videos
are you talking about ICBM’s? Aren’t all ballistic missiles 5 miles/sec+? The Topol M is supposed to have an evasive feature but I don’t have any information indicating that it works. There RSM-56 Bulava is credited with damaging, if not sinking, a few subs.
Yeah…. fire that does not burn paper on the ground….!
not possible; NEUK REACTOR IN BASEMENT, SOUNDS LIKE SOMETHING LIKE THE WRITE BRO’S
g5 ..we can check in with g499 and what he has to say to the golden boro or g498 and the golden donkey, for an excuse and see what the “turbin scrolls ” roll out. 🙂
Atomic reactor in the basement. I KNEW my house was missing something. I forget were I read it but it seems getting fissile material is the easy part and the bomb design is a lot of engineering.
May be JW is just pulling your leg.
What’s your take on the Ukraine? Why would we be there stirring up stuff when Egypt, Libya and Syria went so well for us.
You wanna pull a stunt like that….your timing has to be precise…..!!!
….sorta like setting off an IED to take out a humvee, traveling 60mph using cell phone to detonate ied precisly as the vehicle passes by the unit, and these turbin guys do it. hmmmmnnnn
You guys are freaking me out! No wonder I am preparing for the dark ages to return.
Frankly, all of this technology is abusive of the necessities and way of life.
PAUL C ROBERTS, scathing article; wow
Thanks for the link Al. Nice read
Jeanne Pirro, investagative report unreal
I don’t believe that Obama will go forward with sanctions against Russia.
Siemens CEO Explains Why Russian Sanctions Will Never Happen …
Siemens CEO Explains Why Russian Sanctions Will Never Happen. Tyler Durden’s picture. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/05/2014 14:10 -0500. Natural Gas …
Human nature dictates the human behavior will not change unless it is forced by some external variable or force. The same holds true for the Dollar and its status as a reserve currency. Brandon Smith hinted at this in his interview. The example I like to use is a wholesome and hearty broth or soup. The more water one adds to this soup, the more diluted the soup becomes. In a period of time, the caloric and nutritional value of this soup vanishes where the only thing consumed is hot water. Hence the Dollar.
You couple the above with the situation in Russia and Ukraine, threats of Dollar dumping and it does not take a Harvard MBA to figure out that it is not a matter or if but when this tipping point is to take place. The bigger question is what will be the primer…….the economic reality or the geo0political one.
Hey Greg check this chart out.
The dollar looks like a bouncing ball getting ready to come to a stop. Like Paul Craig Roberts said a few months ago. “Its either the dollar – or – the Banks “. They can’t save both. I guess we know which one they chose don’t we? Putin is on board with the Chinese on crashing the dollar. I don’t think the Bankers will care what happens in this country after that. They’ve already stole as much money as they could, and besides they will be sitting at the table with the Russians and Chinese when the reset comes. Its like monopoly . The Bank always wins, and we don’t get to go past “GO” or collect $200.
Nice chart Jerry.
If you look at my chart you’ll see we were at 72 within the last decade.
Nice symmetrical triangle forming — let me guess which way it breaks….
Scary interview. Thanks for having Williams back. He is one of my favorites.
Who knew, there are some honorable Democratic Senators left. After Obamacare passed, I had major doubts. It does appear that two or three exist. The nomination against the communist defender of an admitted cop killer failed even thou Harry Reid broke the rules the Senate had for 200 years.
Koch Brothers bad, Cop Killer good. You have to love liberals.
God bless those few Good democrats with a little character and honor left. Now all they have to do is impeach Obama. Clearly he has violated his oath of office. You would think the Dems would realize that when they loose the White House, they wont be able to pull this back after they set a precedence and let there man rule by fiat.
I finally figured out why Debo Adegbile defend Mumia Abu-Jamal. Adegbile was a child actor on Sesame Street during the 1970s, playing the character Debo. He confused Abu-Jamal with the muppet, Animal.
And for those still hitting the BitCoin (long on bits, short on coin) wagon, bailout IF YOU CAN.
As far as the Ukraine matter, maybe Obama should call in the IRS and have them audit Putin to death. He is doing it to his other political enemies.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101469265 Feds give 2-year grace period for non-Obamacare plans…nothing to see here folks, move along
Greg, Is it true that Great Britain and Germany have REFUSED to stand with the U.S. on this issue with Putin? I heard this a few times on the MSM….if this is true we really are finished.
We now do not have the leverage that we had or does anyone fear us; we have nothing. A major conflict will crash us and Putin nows this…. But if our other “allies”
have turned our back on us…we are done.
But, is this statement true?? Thanks as always!
Call me cynical or whatever you may deem appropriate.
I look at the actions of Obama and his cohort of sidekicks.
When one considers recent blunderings as being mindless / arrogant acts, there are elements there which demonstrate incongruence and gaping disparities.
Meddling in the M.E. and now Eastern Europe do not bring the USA or its citizenry any degree of improved well-being. In fact it has achieved the exact opposite.
Anyone with a functioning mind, if they look beyond the obvious, can discern that those actions (of the President and his merry men) are intentional and even desperate.
The question remains…why provoke ?
Again we go back to the ….Create a problem….Provide a Solution….Genesis.
Evil minds are at work here. One could almost arrive at the conclusion of self-destruction…if “they” were permitted to persist.
Nah, China is the key to the dollar fall. Russia’s holdings are too small.
They (R) could start a new currency with China backed by gold,but this will take a while.
JW called for hyperinflation by the second half of 2014. It hyperinflation better hurry,
Food for thought…what would happen if a foreign country dropped 25B into the silver market AND took delivery? CRASH! Russia is well aware of the exposure of the US banking system resulting from PM manipulation.
I hate it when you make me defend a Bush but you have a piece under “News” talking about how Prescott Bush was laundering money for the Nazi. When I read something blatantly BS, I immediately discount the rest of the article. Please see below.
President Bush’s grandfather was a director of a bank seized by the federal government because of its ties to a German industrialist who helped bankroll Adolf Hitler’s rise to power, government documents show.
Prescott Bush (search) was one of seven directors of Union Banking Corp. (search), a New York investment bank owned by a bank controlled by the Thyssen family, according to recently declassified National Archives documents reviewed by The Associated Press.
Fritz Thyssen (search) was an early financial supporter of Hitler, whose Nazi party Thyssen believed was preferable to communism. The documents do not show any evidence Bush directly aided that effort. His position with Union Banking never was a political issue for Bush, who was elected to the Senate from Connecticut in 1952.
Reports of Bush’s involvement with the seized bank have been circulating on the Internet for years and have been reported by some mainstream media. The newly declassified documents provide additional details about the Union Banking-Thyssen connection.
Trent Duffy, a spokesman for President Bush, declined to comment.
Union Banking was owned by a Dutch bank, Bank voor Handel en Scheepvaardt N.V., which was “closely affiliated” with the German conglomerate United Steel Works, according to an Oct. 5, 1942, report from the federal Office of Alien Property Custodian. The Dutch bank and the steel firm were part of the business and financial empire of Thyssen and his brother, Heinrich Thyssen-Bornemisza, the report said.
The 4,000 Union Banking shares owned by the Dutch bank were registered in the names of the seven U.S. directors, according a document signed by Homer Jones, chief of the division of investigation and research of the Office of Alien Property Custodian, a World War II-era agency that no longer exists.
E. Roland Harriman, the bank chairman and brother of former New York Gov. W. Averell Harriman (search), held 3,991 shares. Bush had one share.
Both Harrimans and Bush were partners in the New York investment firm of Brown Brothers, Harriman and Co., which handled the financial transactions of the bank as well as other financial dealings with several other companies linked to Bank voor Handel that were confiscated by the U.S. government during World War II.
Union Banking was seized by the government in October 1942 under the Trading with the Enemy Act (search).
No charges were brought against Union Banking’s American directors. The federal government was too busy trying to fight the war, said Donald Goldstein, a professor of public and international affairs at the University of Pittsburgh.
“We did not have the resources to do these things,” Goldstein said.
Fritz Thyssen broke with the Nazis in 1938 over their persecution of Catholics and Jews, and fled to Switzerland. He later was arrested and spent 1941 to 1945 in a Nazi prison. His brother lived in Switzerland from 1932 to 1947 but continued to operate businesses in Germany.
The new documents were first reported by freelance writer John Buchanan in The New Hampshire Gazette.
Get your facts straight!
“In conjunction with the speech by Stalin in 1941 on Red Square, we publish this expose which shows clearly that the US spearheaded the drive to help Nazi Germany attack the Soviet Union, and all through the war the Imperialists of US, Britain, Japan and other countries helped Hitler with armaments, raw materials, food, technology and experts – all geared towards eliminating the first socialist state and thus divide thus largest country in the word between themselves.”
“”The discovery of the Bush-Nazi documents raises new questions about the role of Prescott Bush and his influential business partners in the secret immigration of Nazi war criminals, which allowed them to escape justice in Germany,” says Bob Fertil, a co-founder of Democrats.com and an amateur Nazi hunter. “It also raises questions about the importance of Nazi recruits into the CIA in its early years, in what was called “Operation Paperclip” and Prescott Bush’s role in that dark operation.” Top lawmakers in the USA believe that these people should have been tried for treason.”
I do not want to go into the JFK and Bush fiasco, i can clutter the page with dozens of docs so I will leave it there!
Now here is an interesting one to chew on:
I made my comment above before I looked at your link Mohammad.
It took me several hours to get thru it. I have followed this trail for years. This is by far the best compilation of the “evidence”. Especially the history of PSB/sch Sr. and the previous 40-50+yrs.
I hope everyone here looks at it and I hope all of these sob’s/bastards get exactly what they deserve.
I must say that I am surprised that you buying to this. If you research and run down all the leads you find faulty reasoning, lies, misquotes, and innuendo.
I think the real world does has conspiracies but this isn’t one of them. Just do a little fact checking if you have time with credible sources, you can get copies of the newspapers of the day for a small fee and the government documents from the time are available.
I appreciate your point of view on many subjects, we’ll just diverge on this one.
Heaven forbid we begin a discussion about hw and his “contributions” to the last 70 years.
Bush 41 is more palatable than Obama with any number.
Frankly G500, they were all put in place to “nudge’ everyone towards the one world govt. When people are ever so slowly pushed to a place, they will comply. The have been doing this for decades. Bush did his part and then slick billy, then jr. now barry sotero.
All bought and paid for by the corps and bankers. All given a task to complete.
USA…Christian and predominately white. Then a melting pot…not a bad thing in my mind.
Then exploit the melting pot against one another rather than promote unity. Continue to exploit the melting pot via exploiting religion. Then exploit how everyone is living. The whole divide and conquer thing.
Sir, I have my facts straight, I suggest you check yours.
Sorry, couldn’t resist butting in.
You realize that everything you find on the internet is not real, right?
The first link is to a procommunist organization and I am sure that they are 100% believable (still laughing on what I found researching them) and the second link you rebutted GT with takes me to “Deathbed confessions, photos support claims that George H. Scherf(f), Jr., was the 41st U.S. president.”
I really don’t know how to respond so I think I need to stop here. Good luck, Sir, and I thank you for adding a little levity in an otherwise bad day.
Ridicule is always the best answer when you want to cover up possibilities that may lead to something you do not want to discuss!
Operation paper clip is a myth….huh!?
The Nazi coupe de tat on JFK in the home base of Bush is a fantasy….huh!?
The strong bonds between Bush’s and Saudi’s is an imagination…. huh!?
It is a funny post and links I put there to amuse you sir…right?
I take your ridicule with an open mind.
Thanks for the time you put to reply to my funny post and links!
My last comment on this issue in this thread.
This is a new site, not Jesse Ventura’s conspiracy show currently avoiding drones. I stated I objected to Smith singling out one party of many and using it to base some secret banking cabal. Union Bank wasn’t very secret and the US government seized the assets there were in the USA. I think Brandon must be preaching to his base, which based on his article, as people who believe anything.
Believe what you like. I don’t have the ability to impose reason, I just provide the rational to help you get there.
Doc and Lastmanstanding,
Let me get this right. Y’all believe Bush was replaced by a pod person and that an evil Bush cartel helped the Nazis and they secretly control the world. Doc, its OK to be a Bush hater but I am a little perplexed that it wasn’t those other guys in the middle east.
Lastmanstanding, I really don’t know what to say. Yes, Prescott had 1 share out of 4,000 (?). Boy he was really reaping big dividend. I don’t see anyone slamming those Dems like the Rockefellers who reaped big profits from this deal. Lets not forget that a lot of businessmen thought Hitler had the right idea. Randolph Hearst was a big pro Nazi guy. With the eugenics that a lot of scientist bought into and their seeming economic miracle (they cooked the books like Obama’s doing) . I guess I need to see if their positions modified with time. One thing this does show is how interconnected banking was even in the 1930’s. I can only concluded that its much more connected today.
I suggest you rethink your premise. There were many Americans doing business with the Germans and there were plenty that profited from it. Prescott Bush’s actions were so egregious that he go no jail time at a time when FDR was putting people that disagreed with his war positions in jail.
Believe what you want, its not my job to force you. I present facts while some here present innuendo and a mishmash of fairy tales as truth. Bush did profit from his one (1) while even you have to admit, if you are intellectually honest, that 1 of 4,000 shares doesn’t give you a lot of control. The Rockefellers profited greatly, more so than the Bushs but I don’t see anyone pointing fingers at them. Nor is Randolph Hearst. Wikipedia should never be a main source for anything. They have scrubbed and/or omitted much of Hearst support of Hitler.
I called out Brandon Smith’s article because it was intellectually dishonest. He called out one person of the many involved, one person of the many that profited for some fanciful conspiracy rant on the Bush family. At least it lets me know not to take any of his advice seriously. He appears to be pandering to the wackadoodles crackpot crowd. Which he has a right to.
I am comfortable with my position that Smith did a hack job. Prescott Bush was one of seven directors, with one, the brother of the Democratic Gov of NY , holding 3,991 of 4,000 shares. Using my well honed logic and math skills, this means the remaining six directors likely held eight shares.
And in the article I cited I loved how a current professor stated that they didn’t have the resources to prosecute. That is absurd. The prosecuted lots.
My father taught me to consider the source when evaluating information. Your rebuttal was a communist site (pardon but I don’t find that source credible) and I find the other as just sad that people are so desperate to hate the Bushs that they are willing to believe this drivel. But then, there are people that believe 911 was an Israeli conspiracy. Just goes to show the state of mental health in America.
Learn to not leave any stone unturned and then you can reach the truth.
The collective info is what matters, Bush’s history is too much to ignore, after all 911 happened under the watch of Bush!
THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX!
i will spare Greg editing tit for tat so it is my last comment on the thread,
Good Advice, thank you
Can anyone tell me if this is a false article or a true report? China threatens US over Ukraine. To change there stand.
I found the Spanish paper and while my Spanish is rusty, there is nothing like it on March 3rd. Sounds like you subscribe to my way of thinking. Trust but verify. I have found that a lot of source before the net were biased or just BS but when the internet arrived, it really got bad.
Turkish Pres. is in a world of hurt right now. Seems he’s been caught with his hand in the cookie jar. Seems like people are just making up stuff these days just to confuse people. The only place that has more fraud than news are academic papers.
I found the article and used Google Translate…I posted it here but don’t see it. It appears the translation was correct
A knowledgeable correspondent submitted these observations:
RE: Russian Army. Effective draft evasion is running 80%. Morale is low, training is very poor and poorly funded. The Russian army has also gone through 22 years of near continuous contraction.
And this standing army has heavy commitments in the Caucasus and Far East Siberia. Moreover, at least half of these Russian ground troops are short term 12 month conscripts. I don’t think these kids will produce many usable and motivated troops. The low morale recently seen in the Ukrainian Berkut and other police will be multiplied by at least 10x.
Russian speaking Ukrainian bands are rumored to already be crossing the borders into Russia territory. They’re to be ready to sabotage bridges and infrastructure and generally retaliate. Fluent Russian speakers with many years experience of living in Russia. Who can say for sure if this has already happened or is just being threatened? We can say this is a very real danger. These people look just like “Russians.”
And we can also say this threat will seriously complicate Russian rear area security and logistics. And speaking of logistics, the distances in south Ossetia and Abkhazia were very short and the populations were entirely friendly. Neither condition prevails in the Ukraine outside the Crimea.
Supplying moving armored units over hundreds of miles of occupied country is very difficult logistically. The logistics for air assault helicopter units are just as bad. These helo units look mobile but they’re a lot like a yoyo being twirled around your head on the string. They only go fast within a fixed radius anchored by logistics that are about as heavy to move as an armored division’s supply columns. That is years in the 101st Airborne Division talking. The fuel consumption rates are immense. Stuff starts breaking down fast.
Conclusion: a de facto partition is already baked in because neither side can force a re-unification. Various jockeying and posturing will undoubtedly continue for some time, but the basic end-game is already visible: de facto partition.
Seems like the financial warfare has commenced (retribution).
Russia (via Gazprom) has gifted the Ukraine (Europe) an IRON FIST in the form of a $1.5BLN increase in the cost of Gas supplies…now payable forthwith.
Someone is going to get slapped down BIG time for this. AND its going on the public stage too.
Its going to be hard to guard a pipeline were people are freezing to death and cant afford gas. Might be an excuse to invade rest of Ukraine.
I pray you are correct Greg. She voted for the COPKiller attorney. And he showed up decades after the guy admitted to killing the cop, starting a political movement in addition to filling legal papers. Debo Adegbile also believes that employers should be required to hire convicted felons. He throws out the race card and has many opinions that the common man would laugh at. Obama surrounds himself with radicals and terrorists as advisors or friends.
This is very interesting.
Here is Argentina where the elites and our 1% have been buying and hoarding the USD for some time now, causing the Argentinean peso to devaluate both officially and on the so-called “blue dollar” black market, mainly centered in the financial street district of Buenos Aires; something very significant happened today.
The “blue dollar” exchange rate went from $1 USD to $11.25 pesos yesterday to $1 USD to $10.55 pesos today. This is a strengthening of our peso against the USD by about 6% in one day. Now, there maybe other causes, but this dramatic change is very significant.
Could it be the elites and the 1% here in Argentina are beginning to realize as John Williams points out that the USD is very shaky and based on nothing more than the reputation and military might of the US?
Look to Argentina as the canary in the USD coal mine, because so much USD is being hoarded by rich Argentineans.
It has nothing to do with John Williams and if i may elaborate, It is a very similar situation to what happened in Syria in the black (or for that matter blue) market but first please allow me to post the link:
What happened in Syria and probably what is happening in Argentina is nothing but a financial warfare, the attacking entity is raising the value of the blue dollar by dumping the pesos in the black market which makes it lower in value and makes the flight to the dollar appeal to the locals, when that happens the central bank of the attacked country intervenes by different ways, if they can control the dealers they will do that and they will freeze the black market and eventually the blue dollar will depreciate and the local currency will appreciates, that is with / or they will lose reserve currency and they dump dollars in the banks at a rate lower than the black market which will remove the mechanism of the currency attack and eventually achieves the same results.
It happened in Syria where the Syrian pound went to 300 SP to one dollar, that attack was done by dealers who dumped syrian pounds in the black market outside Syria and in the areas that were not controlled by the government inside Syria, right away the government put the dealers in jail and dumped dollars in the market at a rate of 150 SP to a dollar, they lost a lot for a while until they stabilized the black market at a 160+ SP for a dollar which stabilized the country.
Please keep us in the know. I trust your reporting from there more than what I read in the MSM. Thanks again
Greg, next time you have Jim Willie on ask him to give a little background on “The Voice”. I’ve heard him mention this several times but have no idea what he’s talking about.
Even if I do not agree with all the comments here they make one think. Great discussion here…
Where are the good Muslim? I don’t see any condemnation by Imams. When are these evil doers going to be called out by their own? These terrorists kill Christians, Jews, and fellow Muslims (Shia v. Shite) in the name of God. Well, God has a special in Hell for these fanatic terrorist Muslims. Not the good God fearing Muslims.
They kill women and children for attempting to get educated. What a brave bunch of jihadist.
If the Russians start dumping dollars, they will crash their own economy before anything else. Last time I looked, they weren’t complete idiots.
John Williams has been calling for dollar hyperinflation this year for quite a while now. He is just talking his book. He is wrong, too. There will be no dollar hyperinflation this year.
Rupee up 32 paise against the dollar.
Imagine 53 trillion dollars in the world and only we in America forced to use them.
I had read that the Indians were bleeding hard currency (US Dollars) in part due to every one in India that could was buying gold. They appear to be losing value in the Rupee faster than the US dollar. Go figure
Greg, Hugo Salinas Price brought up a good point in an article titled “Of paper money, digital money and gold”. If Russia starts dumping Bonds the US just freezes their account. The only flaw in his argument is that the Chinese as well as Russians are sick and tired of our jingoistic attitude and if they can’t dump our dollar so to speak they’ll just no longer use it for trade.
When I was a young boy in grade school, once a week in preparation for a nuclear attack from the Soviet Union, we would have a civil defense drill, where the bell would ring, we would drop what we were doing and get underneath our desk and cover our heads. As I look back now as an adult, I see how really silly and futile this exercise was. Hiding under a desk would be futile against the shock wave from a nuclear blast. But I also realize it probably gave us all a sense of security, ( even though a false one) that somehow everything was going to be alright.
So today I turn on the news and see the media celebrating that the unemployment figures for first time filers for this week was only 325,000. I’m starting to get that feeling like I used to, when I crawled under my desk in grade school during those civil defense drills , that somehow the teacher was lying, and that everything is not going to be alright. I used to tell myself, if everything is alright, then what am I doing down here in the dirt?
As I got older, I realized that adults can lie with impunity and can even do it with a straight face in order to manipulate the situation and manage some form of control . And that is where we find ourselves now. Look around you. Do you see your friends and family thinking about economic collapse ? No of course not. Why should they? They have a government and a news media telling them everyday that everything is going to be O.K. As a nation, we are for all intensive purposes in what I call the early stages of loss and grief. Here are the stages.
1. Denial and isolation
In stage one, you can tell yourself that its still possible to pay 125 Trillion dollars in unfunded liabilities with 2.5 trillion in revenue, even though it is mathematically impossible . but you want to stay positive , and tell yourself everything is going to be alright. You go around to other countries with your hat in your hand, and try to convince them that you plan to stop your spending, just as soon as they loan you some more money. But they don’t buy it, and soon become weary of your game, and begin to push away from you, and put you in isolation. Sound familiar?
I would contend that as a Nation we are in stage one right now . In denial and isolation. To hear the MSM media talk they would have you believe that everything is alright. That we are still respected around the world as a nation. Really? Is that why no other country would back us up in Syria? (not that we needed to be there) Is that why the Chinese have set up a new world reserve currency? Is that why Putin can threaten our economy by dropping the dollar bombshell ? Is that why we continue to print money like some banana republic?
Anyone knows that the first step in solving a problem is admitting that you have one. So far from what I have seen, the only people remotely possible that are doing that, are the ones that come to this site. I find reading many of the comments not only informative, but therapeutic. Greg you should rename your site ” The Reality Round Table”. Thank you for letting your light shine fourth.
Very thought provoking. I remember those drills, too. And while they were silly, they did teach me real math, real civics and about real literature. The children today are not getting any of the last three.
CAN YOU REMEMBER THE 1960’S AND PEOPLE TALKING
ABOUT FALLOUT SHELTERS??? I do.
Family discovers fully-stocked Fallout Shelter
in their back yard 50 years after it was installed
at the height of the Cold War. PUBLISHED: 2013
The stocked shelter is just one example of the fears
that many Americans felt during the Cold War, when
the threat of nuclear warfare was all too real.
The family cleared away the bushes that had grown
over the cover of the shelter.
Not only is it fascinating to see the well-preserved time capsule,
but it’s also interesting to see what the 1960s family deemed
necessary for 2 weeks underground in a 8′ x 10′ bunker.
When the Zwicks’ unlocked the heavy, metal hatch, they found
watertight Army surplus boxes floating in 5 feet of water that had
seeped into the shelter.
The boxes’ contents were in pristine condition.
shelter in the
After pumping out the water, they brought up the crates
and were astounded at what they found.
owner of the
other sweets –
treats to get
Preserved: The previous owner of the shelter packed away
Candies, raisins, Hershey’s syrup and other sweets – likely
as treats to get through the long days underground.
(ALSO, items like toilet paper, paper towels, candles, clothing,
Bedding, medical supplies, tools, flashlights, batteries. Foodstuffs
that — like many processed foods available today — could
withstand a bomb or two: Tang, Corn Flakes and Butterscotch Bits.
issue of LIFE
in a fallout
in a Cold
It’s unknown why the past owner decided he
needed to store a Phone Book …???
the past owner
store a phone
How The Western Press Is Getting It Terribly Wrong In Ukraine
104 comments, 76 called-out Comment Now
When the pundits talk about Vladimir Putin’s offensive in Ukraine, they usually mean troops and tanks, but his greatest weapons are ,in fact, his propaganda machine and the gullible western media.
So far, he has been winning stunning victories without firing a shot. Make no mistake, Vladimir Putin cares deeply what the western public thinks and has an army of PR professionals and lobbyists to wage informational warfare, along with a network of sites including “Russia Today” and a variety of “strategy” blogs.
Amazingly, the western press in its desire to adopt what NYU Journalism professor Jay Rosen calls the view from nowhere, has been repeating many of the false assertions that Putin has promoted. Here’s a quick guide to the most egregious errors:
Myth 1: The Interim Ukrainian Government Is Shaky, Illegitimate And Run By Neo Nazis
Ukraine recently ousted its corrupt dictator, so many assume that the interim government is inexperienced and without democratic legitimacy. However, that narrative simply doesn’t fit the facts.
The truth is that Yanukovych’s own party turned against him. The Parliament today is made up of the same members as it was a before the revolution (besides a handful that are now on the run). Interim President Turchynov and Prime Minister Yatsenyuk are both former cabinet ministers and capable, experienced politicians and diplomats.
Three former democratically elected Ukrainian Presidents have issued a joint statement denouncing Russian actions and supporting an EU mission to the country. This represents the entire leadership of Ukraine as an independent country except for Yanukovych, who was impeached by his own parliament. A new presidential election is scheduled for May.
There has also been completely unfounded accusations that Ukraine’s interim government is “Neo-Nazi” and “Ultranationalist.” Timothy Snyder has done a wonderful job debunking these claims. The truth is that much of Ukraine’s present leadership, including Yatsenyuk are Jewish. Jewish community leaders in Ukraine have also refuted Russian accusations.
Only the most twisted mind could conceive of a Jewish led Nazi conspiracy. Are there Neo-Nazis in Ukraine? Sure, just as there are in Chicago and every other major American city. Are some politically active? Yes, as is David Duke in our own country. Do they have any power to shape policy or events? Categorically no.
Myth 2: Ukraine Is A Divided Country
Another widespread misapprehension is that Ukraine is a divided country. There are Russian parts and Ukrainian parts that do not get along. Frequently, maps like this one are shown to illustrate the point:
Anybody who’s watched a recent US election should know that such divisions are common in any true democracy. A vote for Ted Cruz is not in any way a vote for Texas secession. And yes, there are some Ukrainians that would like to return to Russia just as there are Texas secessionists and Confederate loyalists in the US. Every place has its nuts.
Another approach is to look at linguistic differences, which fall upon much the same lines as the political vote. Here again, the divide is real, but vastly overblown. Much of the interim leadership, including Turchynov and Yatsenyuk as well as Yulia Tymoshenko and all of the past presidents are native Russian speakers.
So again, while there is an element of truth in the Russian-backed story, there is an overwhelming abundance of falsehood. Nobody, except the most rabid extremist, wants their own country invaded by a belligerent foreign power.
Myth 3: Ukraine Is No Match For Russia’s Military
Another common narrative is that Ukraine is no match for Russia militarily. The Russian armed forces are far larger and better equipped. These claims are true, but misleading.
First of all, Russia can’t use its entire military. They need significant forces in Chechnya, Georgia and other places. Further, as I noted in an earlier post, Russia’s military is made up of 70% poorly trained conscripts. A military expert speaking to The Washington Post described Russian Forces as competent, but not impressive.
And Ukraine’s forces, while far smaller, are universally described as capable. They would have an advantage defending their own territory and would be receiving assistance, overt and covert, from NATO forces. You don’t have to have boots in the ground or planes in the air to help tip the scales.
The truth is that military experts believe a war in Ukraine would not be a repeat of Russia’s relatively easy victory in Georgia, but a long drawn out battle. That is not something Putin can afford. That doesn’t mean he won’t do it, but it would cost him dearly.
Myth 4: Putin Has The Upper Hand
Many commentators like to describe Putin as a diabolical mastermind, outfoxing Obama at every turn. That is patently absurd. The truth is that Putin is losing, which is precisely why he is embarking on the high-risk gambit he is now.
To get an idea of the poor hand Putin is playing, look at what happened when markets opened on Monday morning. Not only did the stock market fall by about 11%, Russia had to spend $10 billion to prop up the Ruble. Putin has ample reserves of nearly $500 billion, but simple arithmetic reveals at that rate Russia won’t last much more than a month and a half.
And economic sanctions haven’t even started yet. There are already reports of dollar shortages on the streets of Moscow—which, I imagine, invokes a flurry of bad memories—a comprehensive sanctions regime would likely bring back the empty shelves and breadlines of the 90’s.
Finally, Putin desperately needs the support of Russian elites, who have their money in western banks, vacation homes in places like the South of France and Miami Beach and children in western boarding schools. All of that can be easily taken away through sanctions.
Myth 5: Mitt Romney Was Right About Russia
It has somehow become fashionable to drudge up Mitt Romney’s comment about Russia being America’s greatest geopolitical foe. In the minds of the chattering classes, those comments now seem prescient.
How? Russia has no ability whatsoever to threaten us or our allies—militarily, economically or on any other front. The current battle is being fought on its borders, not on ours. Throughout history, there has been a never ending stream of crackpot dictators who have caused us one problem or another. Putin is just the latest.
President Obama has said that we should no longer view the world through the lens of a Cold War chessboard and he’s right. We have already won nearly all of the squares. The people of Ukraine and Georgia have chosen closer relations with us precisely because they want to leave Soviet history in the past. We should too.
Most of all, we should approach the current crises with cool heads. In time, it too will pass. Russia will remain a corrupt kleptocracy, waiting only for the next oil glut to descend once again into chaos. We in the West, and hopefully in Ukraine as well, will be free to pursue our dreams in a global community of likeminded nations.
Updates: In addition to the updates below, future updates can be found on my new post, Barack Obama Is Right, We Should Bury The Cold War Chessboard.
Update 1: Secretary of State John Kerry was in Kiev today and in his remarks echoed some of the points I made above. You can find the transcript here. Also, The New Republic’s Julia Ioffe’s account of Vladimir Putin’s press conference today supports the worrying claim of Angela Merkel that the Russian President may not be in full control of his faculties.
Update 2: More myths debunked at the Kyiv Post and at Mediaite.
Update 3: Ukraine’s Jewish leaders have signed an open letter refuting Putin’s claims of anti-Semitism and say that they do not wish to be “defended.” Also, Forbes’s own Kenneth Rapoza and Business Insider both have good pieces up showing how Russia’s natural gas leverage is being overblown. A decade of gas politics has degraded the tactic.
Update 4: The newest propaganda effort comes from a leaked tape of Catherine Ashton and the Estonian Foreign Minister,Urmas Paet, that seems to suggest that it was the opposition behind the sniper killings on the Maidan. Mr. Paet has refuted these claims himself.
He says, “I didn’t give any evaluation. I stated that this information was going around. Anyone can put together things like that. The conversation was held a week ago. But it was put up now, a week later, now when the new government in Ukraine has started work.”
Putin has the upper hand and Romney was right. Can you post the link to the above article. Thanks again
Thank you Allen.
I said in an earlier post that Putin is lucky to have more supporters in the west Who fell in his PR campaign than in Russia itself, great post!
A while back I asked to focus on Ukraine and that was way before the Russian invasion and it was a good call, now am asking you to focus on the gulf area because something of a great magnitude seems to be developing over there:
Saudi Arabia + Emirates + Bahrain had pulled their ambassadors from Qatar in what appears to be a very strong message to the latter (and to whoever is behind her) to stop interfering with those states that may destabilizes the Gulf with all the serious ramifications on oil/gas/imports and eventually the dollar.
Qatar is been supporting Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Libya, Syria and al Nusra in Syria, that is considered an enemy to those gulf states.
Something big is brewing there that we are for the first time seeing the FISSURE showing to the surface among those states:
The MSM is labeling Putin as “delusional”, “self absorbed”, and “narcissistic(s)”…
and operating from a place of non-logic…but from what I am seeing it is quite the opposite…he keeps calling their bluffs and crossing these “red lines”.
What do you think of Putin’s strategy? Thanks
Brutish force will trump flowery rhetoric every time. They (MMS) keeps talking about how Putin has lost respect in the West. Putin is getting everything he wants from the West and reality is that we cant do a Damon thing about this. Bill O’Reilly and one of NC’s congressmen are calling for draconian sanctions to be imposed on Putin. All this show is how far America has fallen economically and how these bozos have a child’s view of the world in addition to little understanding of the consequences this would precipitate. We can seize assets but then so can Putin. Russia’s economy is far more resilient than Iran’s and they withstood a butt load of sanctions.
Mr Williams comments are more hype than fact.
First we need to remember Mr. Williams makes his living off of proposing that imminent collapse is right around the corner.
The dollar is not weak, in fact internationally it is the strongest currency of any worldwide. People all over the world prefer to keep their wealth in dollars due to the vulnerability of other currencies. Furthermore the FED has the ability to destroy more dollars than Russia holds with a single keystroke making their threat an impotent and hollow gesture designed to influence the ignorant masses.
The stability of any currency in the final analysis is based on one overwhelming factor, and that is the ability of the country which backs that currency to prevail in the worst case scenario which is a war for it’s own survival. When push comes to shove, the United States is still the worlds only superpower and is more than capable of reducing any adversary to rubble in short order. The real question is if it came down to world war tomorrow, where would you feel safest keeping your money.
Sorry Greg, I guess my comments came a little too close to home.
The dollar is not weak? Are you kidding? The Fed has the ability to destroy dollars. I holding some of the ones they have destroyed. You truly must be a product of today US school system. Russia is not powerless economically.
Jimbo, what have you been smoking ?
All for freedom of speech. But not time wasters and mindless ramble.
OK you get back to me when the dollar collapses. But you will understand if I do not hold my breath.
In the mean time, maybe you would be more comfortable with your money in rubles or euros. Or you can always keep it in gold if you want to watch it do nothing.
Jimmy (Carter?? maybe)
Who is paying you to post this drivel. Surely you can’t be those out of it and allowed to walk the streets without a minder
The American people expect far too much from Obama who was chosen by the banking cartel for his excellent speaking ability, not for his intelligence or intestinal fortitude.
Every act of treason and treachery needs a Scapegoat. He was molded for that purpose.
Some here mention Prescott Bush (including his sons). If we wish to point our fingers at a culprit, then this is a good place to start. However, it does not provide the solution.
Putin is certainly a player here. He has been promised 30 Billion, and he is still waiting for it. He can do a lot of good with it. That is just the tip of the iceberg people. Please read and learn. If we did what we should have done on September 7, 2006, then we probably would not be having this discussion.
The brighter and ironic silver lining to all this, is that because we did not do what we had to the opportunity to do, we now stand to gain even more than had we complied with the September 7th agreement. Still, all the monies in world is not enough to restore lost homes and lives.
26 MARCH 2014
Currency Wars: The Plot Thickens
“International discord over Ukraine does not bode well for the settlement of differences over the IMF’s future. Though the G7 is excluding Russia from its number, in retaliation for its action in Crimea, this does not amount to isolating Russia. There has been no suggestion that Russia be excluded from the G20.
The USA and its allies have suspected that several other G20 members would not stand for it. This suspicion was confirmed yesterday when the BRICS foreign ministers, assembled at the international conference in The Hague, issued a statement condemning ‘the escalation of hostile language, sanctions and counter-sanctions’. They affirmed that the custodianship of the G20 belongs to all member-states equally and no one member-state can unilaterally determine its nature and character. In short, their statement read like a manifesto for a pluralist world in which no one nation, bloc or set of values would predominate…
It now seems unlikely that the USA will complete (or, indeed, begin) legislative action on the IMF reform by the 10 April deadline the BRICS have set. The odds are moving in favour of a showdown at the G20 finance ministers’ and central bank governors’ meeting due in Washington on that date…
Beijing leaders have long dreamt of displacing, or at least dethroning, the US dollar from its reserve currency role. US dominance of the IMF is one of several effective bars to the achievement of such a goal. The kind of action Russia is advocating, the BRICS wresting control of the IMF in despite of US veto power, might have some appeal.
That would mark the end of the unified global monetary system that has developed since the IMF was founded in 1945, to be replaced by a bloc of fiat currencies in the developed countries and a system in the emerging sector where currencies were linked to drawing rights in some new international fund, possibly with some material backing. (gold, silver, and possibly commodities – Jesse)
It seems unlikely that convertibility between these monetary systems could be maintained for long. Consequently, the 10 April meeting is shaping up as a potentially critical juncture in world economic history.”
Paul Mylchreest, A Critical Juncture
Paul Mylchreest published this essay over at ZeroHedge this evening, and it is worth a read, as Paul is connecting some fairly important dots for us. I doubt that many traders will really understand the implications of what he is saying, without even having read the comments. Good traders often take a highly focused, very detailed, but narrow and short term view of things, and this is both their strength and their weakness. It deserves a broader stage, but it is unlikely to get it when the major media remains willfully blind.
I had not thought of a dual system previously, in which the Anglo-Americans and their allied states decide to go in one direction, maintaining their hegemony around the dollar and the euro, and the rest of the world going in another. It would be inherently unstable, and throw the global credit and forex markets into a somewhat chaotic state. But then again, who could have predicted the folly of a loosely associated set of nations adopting a single currency without the rigor of monetary transfers and fiscal union with which to balance the system.
This is not likely to be a singular event, but part of an evolutionary change in the makeup of the international monetary system that has been developing for years. At some point things will begin moving more quickly, and change may come in an avalanche of events that will leave most analysts gaping in disbelief.
When do you think the American Revolution began, on 4 July 1776? Such great turns in human events happen over long periods of time. But, in retrospect, there are always critical junctures in the process of change, with hard positions taken, and opportunities for peaceful evolution lost.
“All successful revolutions are the kicking in of a rotten door.”
John Kenneth Galbraith
And since the grand failure of the Soviet state, nothing has grown more corrupt and self-serving than the ring of corporations and crony capitalists that have become the post Bretton Woods banking cartel. It has begun to consume itself, and to kill its own. The economic hitmen have finally come home.
But predicting ‘when’ is difficult in matters such as this. What starts the avalanche, what sound triggers the slide, which snowflake proves to be too much? When is enough wealth and power— enough?
Certainly the events in the Ukraine are difficult to understand without a broader geo-political and economic context, except in the most facile and jingoist of caricatures of different perspectives. They are barbarians, and hate us for our freedom, the wonders of our financial engineering, and the beauty of our culture. We are the liberators. We bring loans and economic progress. We come in peace. Look on our works, ye mighty, and despair.
“Although U.S. Navy and Marine forces generally operate on a regular cycle of deployments to European waters, they rely on a network of permanent bases in the region, especially in the Mediterranean. These should be retained, and consideration given to establishing a more robust presence in the Black Sea. As NATO expands and the pattern of U.S. military operations in Europe continues to shift to the south and east, U.S. naval presence in the Black Sea is sure to increase.” Project For the New American Century, 2000
We are not the makers of history. We are not gods. We are not even the sovereigns of our own passions and delusions and fears.
We who forget history are its victims.
I have NEVER been wrong culturally. Comics, hair gel, harleys, movies, music, etc. I was always right. Always. I also understood economics AND propaganda so well that I have NEVER been wrong on stocks. I burst into my mom’s home the day of the 2008 crash and divested her accounts w maybe an hour to spare before CRASH. Picked next crash to the week. Picked Euro, shorted dollar, long gold. PERFECTLY. You get the point. Bottom line; I agree. America is about to see hyperinflation AND it has already begun imo. The geo oil situation has kept Americans from noticing it takes 100 dollars to get one paper bag food. The shells cannot be “moved” if Russia and China won’t look for the ball anymore and seek safe havens.
Addendum; I picked the 2nd Space shuttle explosion SECONDS before it blew. Like I myself pushed a hidden plunger. I SUDDENLY stood up and said to my mother THAT day. “It’s gonna blow. It’s gonna blow. It’s……. I am no orator nor the vernacular king. My punctuation. Horrible. My picks. NEVER wrong. And I pick Greg ‘ s prediction dependant on Ukraine ‘ s outcome. If our proxies win, we bought more time. 2-5 years before collapse. If Russia however forces us to the middle stages of ww3 where we can’t retract from that field,, so to speak, it all happens faster. THIS year. HOWEVER; I caution that countries openly dumping dollars only speeds this up. Watch for China’s move to peg this one properly. Russia is likely irrelevant impact w out China acting in concert to dump our greenbacks. Thanks for reading.
Apparently, all the preceding BS was a campaign by non other than the midget dictator in Moscow to undermine the US. It turns out he is the one who is suffering for all this BS he wanted for the US.