Over $100 Trillion in Wealth Will Disappear-Harry Dent
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release)
Best-selling author Harry Dent says the stock bubble we have today is the biggest in history. Dent contends, “Now we’re in a third bubble, and each of these bubbles peaks at higher highs, and then they each crash to lower lows. We’ve been looking for the Dow to peak right around here between 17,000 and 19,000. So, we are right in the middle. We are looking for an even bigger correction likely in late 2016 to 2017. This whole thing has been in an artificial bubble. . . . We’d be in a depression right now if it were not for $11 trillion or $12 trillion free money printed out of nowhere. So, this is an artificial environment, and this has never happened before. The charts look to me that we are at a top, or after a 20% correction, a top later this year.”
Dent goes on to say, “I think the crash is finally going to start this year, but it will be at its worst in late 2016 early 2017. . . . I expect new lows on the Dow, and I think it will go to 5,500 or 6,000 in this next crash.”
Dent thinks deflation is what’s coming, not hyper-inflation. Dent predicts, “When debt is restructured and financial asset bubbles burst, you are destroying. I’m estimating over $100 trillion in wealth will disappear. When you create money by magic and QE and bank loans, it can disappear like magic. Now you see it, now you don’t. When that money disappears, there’s fewer dollars chasing the same goods. That’s deflation, and gold is not going to like that.”
Dent goes on to explain, “People don’t realize that there is not near as much government debt, or Fed created debt, than private system money. Banks create most of the money. They lend against asset that aren’t even theirs, your deposits, on a 10 to 1 basis. Banks only have to have 10% reserves. They can take a little bit of money and create a lot of money. At the peak of the debt bubble, we had $10 trillion in federal government debt and $42 trillion in private debt. It’s not so much the Treasury bonds held outside the United States, its dollar denominated loans. Most emerging countries buy in dollars. They buy and sell commodities in dollars. The gold bugs get everything right except they don’t get how fast this money can disappear. There is no good house in the neighborhood here. Way more dollars will be destroyed here. Way more than yen and euros. So, the dollar will go up in value because there will be fewer of them. Fewer dollars chasing the same goods is deflation and paradoxically makes the dollar more valuable. . . . I’d rather have cash, and I’d rather have U.S. dollars.”
On the U.S. dollar, Dent says, “It’s already had an incredible run, and we have been predicting in our newsletter that the dollar would step back after hitting about 100 on the dollar index. We think it will step back to 94 and go sideways for a while. My target is 120 and this deflation, like in 2008, it was bad for gold and was good for the dollar. I think gold is going to bounce for several months now, but only a little bit, a couple of hundred points at most. Then, it is going to go crashing down again. So, I say gold will go up some and the dollar will go down some for a while. The next turn is going to be a bigger crash and gold down and dollar up. . . . Our target for gold is $700 to $740 per ounce by early 2017. Ultimately, it could see $400 to $250 several years down the road.”
On so-called bank bail-ins, where insolvent banks simply bail themselves out by taking depositors’ money, Dent says, “This time, when they blow it up even higher, it’s going to be a steeper downturn. Who is going to vote for central banks printing $20 trillion next time instead of $11 trillion like the last time? There are $250 trillion dollars in loans and financial securities around the world. It’s all stuff that can fall dramatically in value. I see $100 trillion of that disappearing. So, is the Fed going to create $100 trillion to make up for that deficit? I don’t think so. I think they are going to be checkmated next time around.”
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Harry Dent of Dent Research.
(There is much more in the video interview.)
After the Interview:
Harry Dent has lots of articles and a newsletter you can get for free by going to HarryDent.com.
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About the Author
Greg Hunter
Greg is the producer and creator of USAWatchdog.com. The site’s slogan is “analyzing the news to give you a clear picture of what’s really going on.” The site will keep an eye on the government, your financial interests and cut through the media spin. USAWatchdog.com is neither Democrat nor Republican, Liberal or Conservative. Before creating and producing the site, Greg spent nearly 9 years as a network and investigative correspondent. He worked for ABC News and Good Morning America for nearly 6 years. Most recently, Greg worked for CNN for shows such as Paula Zahn Now, American Morning and various CNN business shows.
“Our target for gold is $700 to $740 per ounce by early 2017. Ultimately, it could see $400 to $250 several years down the road.”
Wow, this guy must be a shill for the Fed/Bullion banks. This is utterly absurd.
Not if what he is counting on deflation wise happens. Gold’s value is what someone will pay for it. Suppose 1/2 or 2/3’s of the available US dollars disappear? It could happen. But a $400 oz of gold would buy you a car. His value of gold is meaningless until you translate into what you can purchase with it.
The problem with harry’s analysis is that he is looking at the problem from a US perspective. The US is 5% of the worlds population an it will get deflation unless the fed prints large amounts of cash. What about the other 95% of the worlds population that will be getting large amounts of inflation? if Harry is correct won’t they by gold and suck up all the available physical pushing the price up
China and India represent half of the world’s population and they have been doing quite well lately. Accumulating wealth in the form of gold and silver is almost a national sport! Supply and demand will rule the day…in the real world.
There are warehouses of dollars especially China, all over the world, burn em!
Another major point that escapes Dent is the fact that a day will soon arrive when the US dollar is no longer the global reserve currency. What happens when US dollars have to be exchanged for a gold-backed RMB to purchase imports? We don’t make much of anything here in the US anymore except debt and wars . . . when we have to start exchanging increasingly worthless dollars for imported goods, then the prices of imports here will go through the roof.
Consider the derivatives.. They’re denominated generally in Dollars! This means that settlement will require massive amounts of fiat or additional electronic credits to make those contracts whole.
This doesn’t mean it WILL happen, as there’s a strong possibility that we’ll see some serious defaults as well. It’s interesting what will come with time.
“a strong possibility that we’ll see some serious defaults as well” ….
We are already….just that its not made public. The Derivatives time bomb went off last year…and they are feverishly patching it together (UST to infinity)….and conducting Covert MEETINGS ..to plan the “Attempted controlled unwinding” whilst keeping the markets functioning. They will lose the battle unfortunately…the markets will overwhelm them.
More Criminal than interesting, on the long side I wouldn’t bet against Harry.
Harry is a smart guy. He has already been at least partially correct.
Greg
True, but we will have to first get through the deflationary crisis for that to happen. It could take another decade before we see the dollar replaced as the reserve currency. What Dent talks about is far more imminent, despite you being correct.
So, by your example gold would be a better bet than paper currency as it would have more purchasing power as your example just showed us.
I Agree with George, what price means is he expecting in his valuations…? Prices will likely stagnate as the dollar “rises” (falls less), which will also give us an deflationary trend in asset prices and valuations, but not dollars.. Dollars would then be inflationary, although momentarily deflationary.. Otherwise it sounds like I could merely cut back on cigarettes and root beer and go buy a house instead… How does he view prices? The dollar is the price dictator, and prices wont decouple until the Dollar begins to crash.
It could be argued according to Dents thesis that a 20.oz coke will cost 35 cents. This is all assuming massive amounts of fictitious, bubble blown money just evaporates. Now should we see the evisceration of wealth push valuations down to 1960’s levels, I would have to agree. But wouldn’t this destroy the dollars credibility globally? Wouldn’t trade just freeze up? So if nobody wants this heavily manipulated dollar, that basically lied to all of it’s good faith trading partners, would this not send dollars home for redemption so quickly that we would see hyperinflation. I do a agree with a beginning onslaught of asset based deflation, while cash maintains a mean. But prices will need to decouple from the dollar to resume trade in Dent’s long term decline thesis.. Long story short, Dent’s right about the next call. Erosion in prices and possible “perceived” strength in the dollar. I see a short lived dollar rally since the Fed has to print in a market that will be completely hogtied from the credit it needs. But the printing will likely end up with a massive expansion of population controlling measurements via government. A second bail out for the banks, and a fresh bailout for the massive company’s akin to GE, Dow, Exxon, and Raytheon’s The new big 3 or 4 or 5 essentially. In summary, I just don’t see how Dent can not raise the question of dollar creditably, in the face of the AIIB. I haven’t even touched on Gold being hoarded, and the pending insolvency of the Euro nations snowballing. Or the massive unfunded liabilities this country faces. Where exactly are these good faith depositors gonna come from to allow us to head into a deflationary consumption based tailspin? I guess I just don’t see the back up engines in this country that will keep us putting along like Dent suggests.. This is a consumption based society in my view, if consumption is not easy, jobs vanish, prices “seem” to go up, and supply tightens. All because we need to print ourselves up to a phony prosperity to remain relevant. In a world that needs us less and less… I just don’t see the strong case for Dent’s complete and total deflationary argument..
Keep em coming Greg, I love the stark variations in opinion. They really do help me to continue to evolve my own.
Vincent,
Very nicely put, Dent’s theory leave a lot out of his formula.
Good point on AIIB. He doesn’t touch on money velocity or labor participation rate, employment, falling retail numbers etc.
True, but we will have to first get through the deflationary crisis for that to happen. It could take another decade before we see the dollar replaced as the reserve currency. What Dent talks about is far more imminent, despite you being correct.
Overall, we will see many goods and services fall. We have already seen it, however, we will not see 35 cent soft drinks like we had in the early 70s. This is because people sill still be able to buy food and water. Food and water will be very expensive as supplies have a hard time reaching demand. However, most other items will cost less.
Harry dent is nuts the Fed will print insane amount. Of money
lewis – You are correct. Not only the Fed, but ALL central banks will man the printing machines around the clock!
I agree with Harry that fiat currency and the assets that depend on it for valuation will disappear. Including “paper” gold. But – Harry is dead wrong to think physical gold will devalue to the extent he portends.
Anyone following his advise of wanting “cash” and no gold, will end up with exactly that. A pile of worthless paper that nobody wants and with nothing to fall back on. Good luck with that!
And now look at the new policy restrictions Chase Bank just placed on people … Chase is demanding that you can’t use cash to make payments on your credit cards, mortgages, equity lines of credit, and auto loans … Chase even goes further and now prohibits the storage of cash in its safe deposit boxes!
So, I ask the question “what is Harry Dent going to do with all the worthless paper cash he intends on saving if they can’t be used to pay bills”?? Will grocery store operators accept his paper cash dollars if they in turn can’t pay their bills with them? … At least we gold bugs can barter our precious metals (Harry is going to have an extremely hard time bartering away his paper fiat)!
Harry believes Government “will survive” … thus he believes in holding government paper that by law is decreed can be used as legal tender to pay debts … however with the Chase Bank announcement that cash “can not be used” to pay debts shows exactly why gold bugs buy precious metals … because when a government collapses its paper money becomes like Confederate dollars … worthless to pay debts with or buy food with!
Actually the digital currency will dump while paper currency outside the banking system (mattress money) as well as PM’s will be stronger. Why do they currently talk about banning cash (and probably PM’s later). Liquid and easily used for barter when everything takes a dump. What happens when they ban something, historically it becomes more expensive/valuable. (Drugs, alcohol, marijuana).
Chase was always a nutcase if you had a checking account you can count on fees eating into your balances. They have rules if you break one your going to get the works. I had to go down to the chase bank 3 times and each time they were just dipping into my account. I knew the rules, so they couldn’t just say I broke the rules. Needless to say I exited Chase very quickly. Once they knew I understood they left me alone but their hand was tipped, I could not see myself helping this kind of thing to go on.
Question is who will supply the gold at that price? US or Europe will be left with no gold.
Do you really expect the Asian nations to part with their gold for a 250-500 usd / ounce? thats absurd, specially having bought it at these prices. I dont see it happening.
USD might be the reserve currency for now, however more and more nations are turning away to other currencies for settlement. Since Gold and Silver are the only real money, for a fair trade settlement to exist i think Gold and Silver will play a crucial role. There literally is no other way for a fair trade settlement. So if the USD is only going to keep losing its relevance over time i dont see nations giving up their gold for such low prices.
Greg, you stirred up a hornet’s nest. This is dangerous for ratings. Please pick your interviewees wisely or hit them with hard questions to the point of showing them up for what they are, bankster shills
No Greg, Al’s wrong, that’s our job, were the opinionated masses. Your the journalist, you did it wright, that’s your job, to pick his mind and bring out what he thinks, or believes, hey Al we already know what Greg believes, we want to know Harry Dent, wright or wrong! Then well make up our own minds. First eh?
Harry claims PMs are just another commodity, that their value as real money will never be accepted, and king dollar will, throughout the carnage, only become more powerful. He operates only at ground level and does not even consider the value of PMs to governments looking to strengthen their treasury, nor does he see any kind of reset or revaluation of worldwide fiat. In his view, even though he expects a crash he sees the corrupted system of fiat debt holding power and relevance. It would seem he has gone the long way around to finally meet with Bernanke’s estimation of gold as a barbarous relic.
I, for one, do not measure my PMs in dollars or in any other fiat. Let them all play their fiat games. We’ll see who laughs last.
Tom, He who laughs last, laughs the loudest!
You got that right , like the last time he was on i thought he was nuts, and he still is.
Well, it is interesting to see different angles. I respect Greg for inviting people with varying opinions and then he leaves it up to the viewer to decide. I think predicting things into the future is very hard even for the very best. I hold gold and silver as an hedge, but I have also have dollars and other tangible assests (long storage food is one of them). I think though he is assuming that we will still have the same system in place down the road. What if there is a major power shift and a new system? The transition would be good for gold and silver, but if the world adopts a new system, then selling it off at a high would be a good bet and buy into the new system. However, at present I feel safer with gold and silver than paper money. In the long run though, things may change. It is just wise to hedge by having a variety of saving vehicles and then you are prepared for most things. Keep a watchful eye to see what way the wind is blowing and stay flexible is the key.
He is certainly marginalizing the long, and ancient use of gold and silver as a monetary means of exchange. It’s engrained in humans much like religion, that these are indeed “precious” metals. If all humans are Aware of it and still regard it’s value, even in paper form, then why would everybody suddenly fall off the bus over the course of less than 50 years. ..? It’s just not likely…. People will de facto trust gold and silver.. The global population is also much larger now, so cheaper silver will be the one to watch..
Here’s my best guess… (Check the 200 year Dow/gold chart.)
Stocks low, gold high… Stocks high, gold low .. Stocks are gonna tank, the dollar’s gonna tank, and gold is gonna soar.. land, gizmos and stocks will end up being cheap… Especially in gold.. The next king currency will get the new middle class.. Enter China/Russia..
Greg,
That’s about two years worth of global GDP. Let that sink in a few seconds. Two years global GDP gone, kaput, vaporized
Well for a little humor after that head exploding expose by Greg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oht9AEq1798&feature=player_embedded
For his prediction to come true, and its possible, the US dollar would have to maintain a major spot in international trade. Contrary to all the naysays put out how the dollars days are doomed and then point to the Yuan or the Euro, I find it odd that someone would look to the Chinese communists as a safe haven as they have no rule of law other than what they say it is or the Euro that is already worthless due to same economics that are bring us down.
{Someone points to Germany as they always do to point out the strength of Europe} Its at this point that I burst their bubble with facts that their is only one Germany on the plus side but on the negative side there are the PIIGS which more than negate any positives by Germany.
Google Harry Dent prediction record and see for your self
Steve can you post a link ? I googled it and did not find much. Are you saying he has a good, or a bad track record ?
Just google what I have said and there will be articles about him on the front page, I dont want to be critical here but I also do not want to see people hurt by poor advice.
For those of you out there who are Martin Armstrong fans:
I thought you would like to know that the movie about him ‘The Forecaster’ is now available on Video On Demand from April 24 to May 6:
http://forecaster-movie.com/en/the-forecaster/
Enjoy!
Hi Greg and Mason!
Thanks for the very interesting video Greg and the link Mason as it looks like its worth the watch. I agree with Martin Armstrong’s forecasting for this fall but based more on a 7 year cycle than his computer models.
All we need to do is string together several things presently occurring and one can see that this September is looking more and more like a very key time in history.
First we have the end of a seven year shemitah and the beginning of the next on September 13th :o)
Next we have Jade Helm beginning on July 15th and ending on September 15th but please do not hold your breath because there will be no more and end to this exercise than there was of QE when it was first initiated though the Federal Reserve who promised it was only a short term fix to inject liquidity into the financial system ~ Hahahahahahahahaha!!!
And yes this liquidity did not fix a thing but increased the risk of a much larger credit risk because fiat currencies globally have been watered down due to the world jumping on the band wagon of QE to infinity in an ever growing attempt to lower their currency against their neighbors in hopes of gaining a trading advantage and thus destroying their economy just like good little rats following the pied piper.
Just like September 2001 brought us the patriot act followed by homeland security which began the accelerated erosion of constitutional freedoms, September 2008 brought us the biggest ever single-day crash on the 29th triggered by the powers that be after the U.S. House of Representatives rejected the government’s $700 billion bank bailout(Tarp) plan. Who would have ever guessed that Tarp would then be passed into law 4 days later after that 777 point scare and threats of martial law from Hank Paulson began circulating in congress. Sure enough as Homeland security followed the patriot act, QE followed Tarp in 2009.
So its only fitting that we keep those cycles of 7 years going and play the credit crisis spurred by trillions of dollars of injections to our advantage:
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-global-liquidity-squeeze-has-begun
But first they introduced bitcoin in October 2008 as a beta test to make sure all the problems that would arise from a virtual currency are ironed out over the next 7 years before they begin to collapse all those troublesome fiat currencies they so easily duped into being printed into financial suicide. How convenient that suddenly there is a cry being heard from the think tanks of modern finance that fiat currency must be abolished to the waste can of history as we make room for a stream lined cryptocurrency that will bring a social utopia for the masses:
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/will-latest-bans-cash-capital-controls-grow-bitcoin/
What better place to begin a country wide mandate of a virtual currency in September 2015 than the socialist heaven of France as they have already welcomed bitcoin with open arms. I have been looking for this sign for some time and believe it is a key marker for us who are watching:
1 Thessalonians 5:6 so then let us not sleep, as do the rest, but let us watch and be sober.
Yes I could be wrong but I believe there has already been an agreement made by the G20 in November 2014 that convulsions in the major fiat currencies would develop over the next year and from September 2015 on each country would then phase in all buying and selling through a cryptocurrency over a 3 1/2 year period:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-12/russell-napier-declares-november-16-2014-day-money-dies
Daniel 9:27 And he shall make a firm covenant with many for one week: and in the midst of the week he shall cause the sacrifice and the oblation to cease; and upon the wing of abominations shall come one that maketh desolate; and even unto the full end, and that determined, shall wrath be poured out upon the desolate.
For those who desire to understand more on the next 7 years please check out all our free one hour studies:
http://www.ubm1.org/?page=sabs-onehour
Love in CHRIST! Rob
Mason
I am not a fan of MA for many reasons not the least of which is the below statement from http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/04/17/the-federal-reserve-part-ii/
“The amount of propaganda against the Federal Reserve is incredible. What we must keep in mind is that its original design, which lasted for about one year, was brilliant. The classic banking model, borrowing from depositors on a demand basis and lending long-term making a profit on the spread in interest rates, such as business loans and mortgages. This was Relationship Banking not today’s Transactional Banking model.”
Am I to understand that the model of private cartel of banks owning da Fed was a “brilliant” idea until one year into its operation……………sheeeeeeeeeez!
I rest my case
Hi Colin,
Yes, I have read it. But I think you are a little bit premature in resting your case. I must admit I raised an eyebrow when I read that. But that doesn’t mean Armstrong is incorrect perse. I have reading him for some time now, and I must say I also raised an eyebrow when he was talking down precious metals a few years ago. But he was actually correct on that point. Listening to the gold promoters at the time in 2011 has cost me. That doesn’t mean that I don’t like gold, because I do. I just wish the timing was better, and I wish I didn’t listen as much to them as much as I did at the time. Armstrong has proven to be on other points as well, and I must say in his Writings he has conveyed some amazing insights which I am grateful for. Furthermore, I have found that only way to the truth is to try and falsify your own theses.
That paragraph you quote is only a small piece of what he is saying. He is saying much more. That quote is part of the second article is a serie, which I presently did not take the time for to fully grasp:
Part I: http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/04/16/the-creature-from-jekyll-island/
Part II: http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/04/17/the-federal-reserve-part-ii/
Part III: http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/04/19/the-federal-reserve-part-iii-the-takeover/
Part IV: http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/04/20/the-federal-reserve-part-iv-the-bankers-strike-bank/
and this serie was sparked off by an discussion on paper fiat currency on his blog.
I must say I didn’t like the quote, and I particularly didn’t like what he wrote about Griffin’s book ‘The Creature From Jekyll Island’. But again: That doesn’t mean he is incorrect perse. And: I don’t have the enormous economic data-base he has or have read as much economic history as he has (although I’m trying, haha). I have learned not to dismiss a whole body of work on the basis of one quote which I don’t like.
That doesn’t mean he is correct either, on this subject. I just don’t know. I have even written an e-mail to Edward Griffin (for the first time ever!) as to alert him on the Armstrong’s review of his book. I don’t know if he will respond to it though or even if he will read it. I also don’t know who is correct, but I think if two men are of good will, and discuss it with regard to content, the truth will be the only winner. With regard to myself, I might take some time to study exactly what Armstrong is actually saying in his series of four articles and the context in which he is saying it, and then come to a conclusion myself. But that may take some time.
And for what it’s worth: I don’t agree with Armstrong’s view portraying what’s behind the curtain either. I think Griffin’s view is far superior to that:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynVqPnMQ2sI
But not all people have to be correct all of the time. What you or I should do is research everything for ourselves, take the good pieces of information from the people you generally trust (such as Armstrong or Griffin) on the subjects they have shown expertise, think hard about it, ignore the parts you don’t agree with, and blend it into your own coherent view. (Oh yes, and again, constantly try to falsify your own beliefs to get closer to the truth.)
Take USAWatchdog for example: it has excellent interviews, it has an excellent Weekly-News-Wrap-Up, it has a host that has integrity, it has good content on it’s comment-section, but as far as I am concerned: you just have to look past the religious references that pop up frequently and don’t mind them. My point is: not everyone has to be spotless: you just take the information that is valuable to YOU and ignore the rest.
In any case, with regard to Armstrong, one thing I can say I am taking extremely serious is his prediction of his turning point at 2015.75.
Take care Colin and be well,
Mason
All good Mason
There is nothing wrong with good healthy debate
Cheers and best regards
Col
Mason,
New Living Translation
For the choir director: A psalm of David. Only fools say in their hearts, “There is no God.” They are corrupt, and their actions are evil; not one of them does good!
◄ Psalm 14:1 ►
The mind is like a parachute, if it wont open up, it don’t work and your dead!
Thomas Jefferson
Gert,
Fools…Corrupt…Evil…Dead…etc. So much foul words in such a short post. You are preaching hate, and condemning those who not share your belief-system. You remind me of the Ayatollah’s in Iran: exaxtly the same, only under another name.
You profess some kind of superiority, but your post shows anything but. I can image that well-meaning Christians that have integrity at heart are offended by your post as well.
My mind is perfectly openend up, thank you very much. But your post shows yours is not. If you prefer to use your parachute-analogy, why don’t you try this one on for size:
“The mind is like a parachute, if it is stuck in a single religious belief-system it won’t open up and your dead!”
Now, if I had to choose something, it would be Zen-Buddhism (which is not really a religion). Now, that is something I have studied pretty extensively, and it gives you much more insights in my opinion. And judging by your post, it is much more tolerant as well. But, what can I say, if YOUR mind is stuck – which it seems to be – I guess you are not open for that, are you?
I rest my case.
The Fed was designed to begin complete control of not only US money, but the world’s economy. And they have succeeded, until now.
Winds of change are bringing new alliances, as we know. They are out of $, even with printing, which brings the liquidity crisis. The Nazis were supported by Papa Bush, who will support Obama & the Fed now?
Not China. Not Russia. England is broke. The cops are stealing from the citizens now…that tells you a lot.
What he is saying is that it is the Government that is responsible not always the fed and that they have allowed the bankers to move from client based transactions to derivative traders. We need to look further than the traditional conspiracies that we hold dear to otherwise we will get trapped in a close mind loop
steve,
If the bankers weren’t allowed to move from client based transactions to derivative traders how would Hank Paulson have bean able to accumulate all that money from trading! He couldn’t have done it working for a living. I know, he stole it from the middle class fair and square, bankrupted the banks then hawked the country to China to be able to bail out the banks he stole from, to steal again. Yes Hank tomorrow’s another dAY!
You’d have to read his books to find his predictions. Pretty abysmal record, but his strong point is his social/economic cycles work. I wish he’d just stick to that original and impressive work.
He used to advise buying Treasuries in a deflationary period. I don’t hear him talking about that anymore. Thats the last thing I’d buy.
I watched the Forecaster last night, GREAT Documentary, especially the
comments by Mike Campbell, and Larry Eldelson. This movie reinforces
what a lot of us already see coming and will not be pretty.
I for one will never bet against Marty’s dates, he has a track record
that speaks for itself and his comments in the last six months are playing
out in Western Society.
In the past, peasants worked in agriculture. I think we need to learn how to be peasants again. A bag of spuds and clean gallon of water will be worth more than gold to the common human.
Europe has been through collapses before, WW1 and WW2 for example. What will happen is the government will takeover fuel and food supplies and ration them. It will be difficult no doubt but if you are waiting for the end of the world you will be waiting a long time.
Ron,
Happy to Wai, for the End of this Old World in Need of Extreme Reupholstering!
Ronald, HAVE you ever eaten unripe fruit? No doubt, you were disappointed with the taste. Fruit takes time to ripen, and waiting for that to happen is certainly worthwhile. There are other circumstances under which it is rewarding to wait. “Good it is that one should wait, even silently, for the salvation of the true God,” says the Bible. (Lamentations 3:26; Titus 2:13) In what ways must Christians wait for God? How can we benefit from waiting for him?
As Christians, we are “awaiting and keeping close in mind the presence of the day of the Lord.” We look forward to relief when he causes the “destruction of the ungodly men.” (2 Peter 3:7, 12) Jehovah himself is eager to end all evil, but he is exercising restraint so as to bring about the salvation of Christians in a way that will glorify his name. The Bible says: “God, although having the will to demonstrate his wrath and to make his power known, tolerated with much long-suffering vessels of wrath made fit for destruction, in order that he might make known the riches of his glory upon vessels of mercy.” (Romans 9:22, 23) Just as he did in Noah’s day, Jehovah knows the right time to save his people today. (1 Peter 3:20) Thus, waiting for God involves waiting for his time to act.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqvlucAVoqI
A Christian you may be, but you are certainly a closed-minded one, that’s for sure. Judging by your posts anyway.
I’m on the farm milking some cows and raising everything to feed them. Here over 80 years and the 2 farms are clear. I hear several places it is getting hard to borrow money on the farm now. Banks don’t want to lose. A big effort is being made to tax me off of the farm through property taxes. The school system is the biggest offender. My land and cows do not send kids to school. Why do I pay much more (by a couple times) than an several hundred thousand dollar house? Feed 100+ people on a caloric basis, live conservatively and can’t hardly cover expenses. Every time I look at another ag venture I am discouraged away by how much productivity it would take just to pay the noncontributing portion of the enterprise (taxes and insurance).
The point is they are whacking the farmers hard here in Indiana cause so far the government has been able to get it. This problem is systemic with many entrepreneurs I believe. No room for anything to go wrong. We are canaries in a coal mine and yeah there is some kind of reset coming. Droughts are shaping up in several areas of the country now. Plenty of things to complicate our existence.
Jim. Just think of these as the good ol days. Some day it will be a quart of barley for a days wage. I work in agriculture.
Jim. I don’t know the answers, keep the faith. Thank you for posting. I have read your post 3 times now it really hits home. God bless you !
https://youtu.be/joNzRzZhR2Y
Jim
I hear you.
We have very similar circumstances down here in the vassal state that we call NZ.
When we produce food we are almost always price takers and can never run our businesses with a cost plus system.
I am being very conservative and will not borrow anymore money.
If I had any spare cash it would go into PMs and reducing debt.
My very best wishes to you as a man of the land.
Cheers
Col
Agriculture is being controlled. The farmer is working for the other guy where massive profits are made.
There is no marketing done for the farmer; the marketing is already done.
Gold and silver doesn’t rule. He who controls food, water, and energy is whom controls the world.
As Jesus said, ‘put trust in heaven and not earth. In heaven, your wealth cannot be stolen like on earth (paraphrase by Ugly).
I own my own MERS home. Paid note a year ago. Guess I’ll see how long that lasts. No title, just a letter stating that we paid our note. I need to do a title search. I am sure it’s not me.
But my treasures are in heaven. Even today’s walk on the green belt I couldn’t believe how beautiful the weeds are. Each day is to be cherished.
Wow, gold at $250. China must be the biggest collection of dolts on the planet. Yea, OK, Riiiiiiight!
Excellent words “Ugly”. Cherish every day, praise God for every blessing, live a blessed life, live life in Christ, love as Christ loves you and you will prosper no matter the circumstances. God bless.
Amen….
Greg,
That’s the best interview I have heard with HD. I understand why he thinks gold will go down now. When 100 trillion of wealth goes to money heaven that is kinda like reverse QE? Interesting. 100 T seems reasonable too.
That said I think gold will go up multiples. First the paper market should go away as it is bogus. If the paper is 99% of the market that leaves 99% chasing 1% and bond and stock money will chase as well.
It will be a panic into gold. He is a smart guy and I follow his Spock like logic but there is going to be a shit storm and gold will get ridiculous !
I bet he has one of those high dollar underground bunkers you buy with others! HD is a prepper!
@Randy0302 : You bring up an interesting point. Precious Metal Pete forecasted back over 3 years ago that gold would crash down to some obscene number like $250 or $500 but that was only for Paper Gold and not the real metal. His prediction is the gold paper market which is a 93:1 derivative will burn down to its true worth and probably stops trading for a few weeks. It’s at that time the real physical starts spiking upwards numbers never seen before in the gold market. Anyway, interesting analysis as many said he was complete wrong and that gold would already be at $2,500 by now or higher.
Absolutely, I think people are missing the point. I will use the old movie “trading Places” Dan Akroyd goes to the hawk shop to sell his expensive watch, the gentleman replies in Philadelphia it’s worth 50.00 bucks. When it evaporates people will be selling things for a song
I respect HD’s opinion however…It seems to me Mr Dent is not giving PMs global consideration but only puts them in terms of a struggling US economy/stock market, to wit the PMs are currently up BIG everywhere except in the US due to virtually all of these other currency struggles and the fact that Gold & Silver are Money(!) not just a commodity. If the dollar must re-set, I expect this would be net Positive for PMs.
He also seems not to be aware (if so, he didn’t mention it) that Asia will ultimately control price discovery of PMs as they dominate the global physical trade and likely have the lion’s share of PM inventory. So, when China announces they have, say 8M to 10M(?) Oz of AU or India announces their huge holdings, then what?
What happens when China de-pegs the Yuan from the dollar as they surely soon must do to re-boost their exports (GDP)? This is also net positive for the PMs.
And, if the US must re-set the Dollar, wouldn’t they likely do this with real assets (like PMs and/or Oil) backing it this time IOT give our note holders confidence in our US currency? Otherwise, who from then on would trust the dollar?
And finally, new supplies of PMs are dwindling. No sizable new discoveries to keep worldwide production of gold (~2M Ozs per year) to keep up with Demand. Same predicament for Silver, only worse! PMs are getting rarer, supply at the LBMA and the COMEX have dropped considerably while their Demand is through the roof and would expect their demand to increase greatly during any financial calamity especially a calamity induced by money printing (QE) and the unknown derivative bomb… This (PM prices) is totally Unlike Oil & Gas which are at peak production with limited storage remaining to store it combined with dropping global demand.
If the fundamentals of the PMs were different, we PM Bugs wouldn’t be so Bullish.
When China floats their currency it’s going to appreciate, and that is not going to help exports. But that doesn’t matter, because their goal is to shift their economy away from manufacturing. They want to boast consumption because the future of Chinese manufacturing isn’t a future.
What I’d be more worried about is China announcing how much gold they have. This is a face card. China will want something by showing their gold reserves and I think what they want is to be the new de-facto global currency, however; with an economy that has yet to really push any noticeable global brands – sorry no-one outside China uses TaoBao, Alipay, LiNing, or Huawei – limited resources, and banks that are drowning in debt, I severally doubt it will amount to much. I for one would be much more worried about a stock market crash and devaluation in the States, then I would be to worry about run away inflation and China capturing the world’s global currency.
So the Federal Reserve owned by the big banks will let the dollar based debt to completely collapse and thus bankrupting the big banks. So if I owned a casino and can make as many play chips as I want, why would I go about bankrupting myself for the lack of play chips.
These deflationist have been squawking for decades and each time the Fed has been able to step in and bail out every institution in the world with millions, billions, trillions, or quadrillions if necessary. I don’t know how many times Harry Dent has been calling for a deflationary collapse. He did it in 2007/2008/2009/2010 and on and on. Yet the banks seem alive and well to me, printing as much money as they want and they will continue to do so. Of course there will be corrections so that the banks can snap up assets on the cheap as they wipe out of middle class. But the deflationary collapse… I’m still waiting.
IJR,
Its too late….the Fed and its owner Banks together with all the CB’s of the Globe including the BIS ( Central Bank of the CB’s)….ARE ALL BANKRUPT……and currently undergoing proceedings ……RESET is already in action. The Derivatives associated with Greece and also the Oil price have caused untold losses…which continue to mount as the printing presses and issue of Debt work overtime to stabilise a dramatic shortfall in Collateral. Prepare as best you can …there will be blood on the streets.
BTW…..the game of issuing debt to create more collateral has simply just allowed the banks to increase the leverage and exposure. A point I made last year….about how dangerous the system was to allow this exponential growth that most thought didn’t impact the globe because it didn’t find its way into the money supply. NEWSFLASH……the Reverse Repo game is no longer OPAQUE…..IT IS EXPOSED FOR ALL TO SEE. The CB’s should be very.. VERY…. AFRAID…..this will now begin the long awaited process…of CULLING from the WORLD…of the EVIL that has permeated all facets of life.
Greg: On gold dent has not taken into account the world elite’s /bankster don’t care about his trend charts. They have told Pastor L. Williams they will collapse the economy
this year, and they will take gold up- their quote- geometrically higher . No one knows how high it will go- it has been manipulated for so many years.
I believe Dent is correct about EU and Greece and Germany- Germany is looking towards Russia as is Greece- both getting out of NATO.
Dent is always interesting with his thoughts- but trends charts aren’t followed by the elite’s controlling the markets.
PASTOR WILLIAMS TOLD ME PERSONALLY- in 2009 the elite’s told him the would rise the stock market back up slowly to new highs. then, as they have suckered most people back into the markets they would crash it” one last time”- and steal trillions of dollars like they did in 2008. This is all planned! They can do this at any time.
Also, they have said, gold and silver is the money of the elite’s! Paper money is for stupid people. They are buy gold buy the tons as they tell everyone else it stupid to own gold/silver. Those that have gold now mostly will not let go of it- we know what is about to happen!!
al
Al.
You are correct. The elites do not use charts. They won the markets and can manipulate them however they want.
Al,
“Charts”…are so very 20th Century…….Harry needs to move to the new model….”Manipulation 202 and Perception Economics” ….and the other favourite …..”Repression via ZIRP for Dummies”. I also find the outstanding piece ….. ” Markets!!! …What Markets?” a great read.
Lindsay Williams loves publicity, and if he was connected to the so called elites, it was many decades ago. He’s been banging on about this stuff for ages, and every time he makes a prediction that doesn’t come to pass, he makes an excuse. But he still sells his books and videos to the mugs.
You’d be crazy to put much trust in him, he knows no more than the rest of us.
He reminds me of a guy I once worked with who had an ‘inside’ contact at the race track, who gave him secret information on the sly. Nothing could be verified. He trumpeted his successes but was muted on his losses. He was just as poor as the rest of us.
It’s just a mugs game … there is no secret elite conspiracy or inside information that someone is going to share with you. The system is much too big, too thoroughly corrupt … don’t be simple in these things, trust no-one. They are all working an angle, paying the mortgage with our gullibility. Armstrong has been providing a good summary of the corruption and insider trading that has corrupted politics and the market. Listen to him – he is not profiting from telling the truth.
I have been watching this blog and never posted before, but this past week was a real eye opener. My neighbor had his front door bashed in and was raided for drugs in the middle of the night a few nights ago and the swat team found no drugs. What they did find was two dogs which were German schnauzers that they shot to death and they also found all the gold and silver coins and numismatic coin collections my neighbor has hoarded all his life. They confiscated all of his treasure and his wifes jewelry as well as the contents of his gunsafe, which held the gold and guns. According to my neighbor, the cops feel as though they have legally confiscated all of his valuables under the civil forfieture laws. The cops told him he would have to prove that these had nothing to do with illegal activities. The whole ordeal has been hard for this family let alone being ripped off a huge percentage of their net worth ripped off. There were 30 so called Monster boxes of silver eagles they hauled away. These along with the gun cabinet were hidden behind a false wall and when he was asked why these were all hidden within the house, he asked then wasnt it obvious? The police considered this a smart ass answer and mocked him as he and his family were helplessly handcuffed in another room while they carted away his stuff. Then they took him down to the police station where he was interrogated for 10 more hours. They finally released him late Friday evening. As an American, this is astonishing to me. We better find a way to stop this type of outrage or America will be nothing but a memory by the next decade.
ANIT
I really feel for your neighbors.
I can only imagine but, their feelings in a situation like this must be that of absolute helplessness and akin to being in Germany as the Nazi party gained power pre WW2.
From what I hear there are rapidly increasing numbers of Americans that are now more fearful of the police force than they are of the very criminals that they are supposed to be protected from.
What a sad state of affairs this is developing into.
Cheers
Col
Astonished
And then there is this:
“WE” certainly are exceptional ! This article from ZH is startling. This is an indictment of not just our justice system, but the society as a whole, IMHO. When will the “just and honorable” revolt? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-19/american-justice-fbi-lab-overstated-95-forensic-hair-matches-including-32-death-sent
It is obvious to me that some elements of your story are missing. No judge will grant a no knock warrant without knowing that there is indeed probable cause. Does the suspect your neighbor have any priors? Is he on parole or probation? Does he participate in anti-government or radical political groups? Something in your story is not right. Regarding the loot this guy had, it isnt normal to store the amounts of precious metals you infer. Just the monster boxes of silver alone total about a quarter million dollars. Homeland Security guidelines indicate that many terrorist groups fund their operations with caches of metals along this order of magnitude. It sounds like this guy has a lot of explaining to do.
No sir. There is no criminal history unless my neighbor is an exceptional liar. He and his wife have lived in my neighborhood for almost 15 years and work good jobs in the oil and gas industry. I told him to go to the Houston Chronicle and blast them good since we are close to the outskirts, but his attorney told him not to do that yet as it could make it more difficult to get his property back. I got a tour of the house today and what a job these guys did. A complete ransack. Probably 30 or 40 thousand dollars in property damage at least and all the dried blood from the dogs really smelled bad. I think there has to be a lawsuit on top of getting the property returned.
Dear Traffic Cop.
I think your comment is frightening and proves 100% that some cops are dangerous idiots.
$250,000 is not a lot of money for a family’s life savings and it is nobody’s business how he got it. It’s not a crime to have money. You seem to think its a crime to not have it in the bank in normal sheeple form where the system can get it when they want. Maybe $250,000 in a bank account is suspicious? Maybe $250,000 split into two bank accounts is twice as suspicious? etc. Maybe Jim Sinclair is a terrorist mastermind bigger than Bin Laden?
I bet you wonder why people distrust cops. I’d move town just to get away from you if I heard you say what you just said in person. You sound like a possible crazed lunatic, a loose cannon best avoided.
You say they would have had probable cause. Then you list reasons why which are absolutely pathetic. None of those reasons indicate a a search for drugs. Does that compute in your little brain?
” It sounds like this guy has a lot of explaining to do.” Wow. Just, WOW. Incredibly enough, I can explain his actions. He reads websites like this one and decided to put his wealth into precious metals. That explains it all. There is no need for “a lot of explaining”. You sound too dull to understand that though.
You have successfully proven that the IQ caps they use for police recruiting must actually be working.
Jim,
I think, once again, this is not really a police officer. He is probably a paid troll sent here to stir things up.
Greg
Agreed Greg,
anyone opening with the words “according to Homeland Security guidelines…”
Guess anyone who “… participate in anti-government political groups..” deserves their home violated, arrested and property confiscated without due process according to him… Very scary indeed
Traffic Cop
Yep, you sound like a right charmer to me….. and maybe also an excellent prospect to consider joining the CSPD [California Shower Police Dept].
Perhaps everyone in the country ‘with caches of metals’ should be summarily arrested and locked up…. just in case they happen to be political radicals or heaven forbid…..shock horror…….ANTI-GOVERNMENT!!!!!!
Tell me…. do you already reside in California?
Cheers
Col
You are incorrect. Very much so.
First, civil asset forfeiture is really a mechanism by which the state and federal government can seize people’s property without having to convict them of a crime. Most people cannot afford to hire a lawyer to challenge it. It really is LEGALIZED ROBBERY BY LAW ENFORCEMENT. Since 9/11 under just one program, police have taken 2.5 billion dollars in the course of 61,998 cash seizures FROM PEOPLE WHO WERE NOT CHARGED WITH A CRIME. Check out the article in the Washington Post:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/investigative/2014/09/06/stop-and-seize/
Second, who cares about Homeland Security guidelines? They are notoriously unreliable. The new guidelines allow individuals to be designated as representatives of terror organizations without any evidence they are actually connected to such organizations, and it gives a single White House official the unilateral authority to place entire “categories” of people the government is tracking onto the no fly and selectee lists:
https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2014/07/23/blacklisted/
[BTW: you know the last country that used the word Homeland or ‘Heimat’ in this context: yes, that is correct: Nazi-Germany]
Third, you are just spouting out that he might be a member of an anti-government group, or something. What is an anti-government group? Is that the Tea Party according to you? Tell that to Lois Lerner and the IRS. Pffff.
Fourth, that amount of precious metal could be accumulated as a result of hard work over his life-time. None of which is the governments business. Are you saying that a person should not accumulate more than 250.000 dollar because of his hard work? That is a proposterous suggestion, sir! You are not a Marxist are you? Because that is what your suggestion amounts to.
Fifth, you are completely in the minority here.
I think you probably are a troll, but if you are not, then I would suggest that your mentality speaks volumes about the sickened state the U.S. is currently in. You have some soul-searching to do, not to mention some genuine real research. Just stop watching MSNBC or Fox or whatever mainstream-media Kool-Aid you are drinking, and start looking for reliable sources. USAWatchdog is a good place to start, otherwise I would suggest other online sources such as Casey Research, Martin Armstrong’s blog, Jim Sinclair’s Mineset, LibertyBlitzKrieg, and there are other numerous, numerous other good sources you can get informed.
I imagine that they knew he had those PMs and that the “drug raid” was only a pretext for the robbery. The DHS requires paperwork on all significant PM purchases, so at least some arm of the government knows who’s bought what, recently. I wonder if that database was used to target him.
Those who have metals, guns, ammo, and supplies need to pay heed to this story.
The time is now to cache and secure these items to prevent this type of intrusion from happening. As the local, state, and federal governments become more desperate, they will resort to this type of criminal activity knowing that they can get away with it. The neighbor was lucky he was not shot dead.
Criminal judges and state/federal attorneys are in with the police state. Trumped up reasons for unlawful search and seizure are going to get worse.
If you are buying silver, gold, guns, and ammo, then make sure you pay the bill in cash. Minimize the paper trail. All credit/debit transactions are accessible by the government under the Patriot Act.
The .gov matrix tracking system is on steroids at this time. Get off social media, never use google search engines, use OPSEC when using electronic mail, throw away the smart phone tracking devices, keep bank accounts near empty, use cash at all times when possible, use situational awareness, “stay alert, stay alive”, stock up on supplies, have a bug out plan.
Astonished in Texas.
That’s scary stuff. Did they have a search warrant when they came in? I think I would be seeking legal advice ASAP and go after them in court. There are still some laws that protect us. But not many.
Astonished neighbor in Texas –
Where was this in Texas? I am in the Houston area.
I have heard about cops in other states regularly searching vehicles for cash and ‘confiscating’ it. This is the first I’ve heard about police breaking into homes and confiscating valuables.
Greg, thanks for having Harry Dent on. His deflation analyses make sense to me. Really appreciate your having varied opinions.
Keith
If you are in Houston, then you are within 100 or so miles from where this occured. Be careful. All I can say. I never thought something like this could happen in this country. Mind boggling. Absolutely mind boggling. I feel like I want to throw up and then move to a foreign country.
When I read your story, I am reminded of a famous quote by Pastor Martin Niemöller about the Nazis’ rise to power and the subsequent purging of their chosen targets, group after group:
First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Socialist.
Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
Take care,
Mason
Good post Mason
Well said said Mason!
Cheers
Col
The real questions to ask :
– how the police knew he had the gold, etc?
– why he didn’t think it could happen to him?
They knew he had the gold because he admitted that he had guns. He knew they probably were aware of the firearms from the records so he showed them where his gun safe was hidden. Unfortunately, he also kept quite a bit of gold in the safe in the form of gold coins along with his rare coin collections, which included some very rare coins. He is absolutely sick about the situation because many of the collections were started when he was a young buy about 40 years ago. My heart breaks for him. This is so bizarre. Really unbelievable. It started with what sounded like a car alarm and we end up with this. Its not my direct problem, but I feel like it is.
I feel for him too. I wish I could do something.
You are doing the right thing: you are spreading the word about what happened to him. Eventually the people will wake up. So for that: a tip of my hat to you.
Sad to say, the people on other sites that talk about these kinds of incidents are called preppers…..well, anyone trying to take care of themselves is now a prepper. Those that haven’t paid attention to the changes in the US rule of law are now exposed and vulnerable. My take, they knew about his stuff and the cops get to keep it. Also, they’ll look for more.
so anyone with stuff needs to consider that.
They are hunting for cash and they will go to any lengths
I don’t know if I believe this. Too many missing links. Honors to our LEOs and Armed Forces.
Thank You for your support. I am with you. I dont believe any of it. No Knock warrents arent served on innocent people. They have to be mixed up in something if they were raided. Keeping the amounts spoken about in a house is unheard of. They could have decoyed the metals and placed a diversion so that the drugs wouldnt be found. Or they could have flushed them. Lots of home drug operations now put drug disposal in the responsibility of their teenage kids because as we typically secure a position, the kids are the last people we pay attention to. They flush the drugs while we secure the perimeter. This is the part that really burns me cause we are fighting the war on drugs for the kids.
Traffic Cop.
Not saying that this didn’t happen, just saying it has too many missing links. For instance, 3o monster boxes isn’t the norm for a long term silver investor. You can’t invest slowly with monster boxes. You buy a monster box….So maybe he bought one a year? Don’t know.
The give away is what are the dates of the silver coins in the monster boxes? If they are years apart, then ok. If they are close, then hardly a long term investor.
Not saying it didn’t happen. Just saying missing links to the story. Thanks…
Everyone has their opinion, but I just don’t see how all this printed currency disappears. I’m still sticking on the side of Gold and Silver for one simple reason, the East (Asia) continues to gobble up Gold like kids eating chocolate in a candy shop! I just don’t see how you can discount something that has been the monetary Rock ( no pun intended) for 5,000 years. I’m Also sure Asia has a plan in place and is not purchasing all this Gold for a hobby.
I suppose any U.S. dollar price for an ounce of gold is possible. If it goes as low as $250 an ounce, then that is going to be one heckuva deflationary depression. However, TPTB will do another repricing of an ounce of gold to something like $7000 or $10000 in order to generate inflation ala FDR in 1933 – which is what Rickards and others are saying. Hang on, it’s going to be a rough ride. We are witnessing a dramatic change in the course of human affairs. Wow!
WOW ‘We, Holy Cow,”Snorkel”
Hey Frogman,
Maybe Dent wants to help knock the Gold price down along with the PTB, then start gobbling below 300US. and laugh at us all the way to the bunker! Doesn’t he realize they have bunkerbuster bombs, I don’t reckon so!
Although I don’t agree with all of Mr Dent’s predictions (for instance, that the currency of bankrupt nations will be a far greater store of value than gold in years to come), I do like hearing a different perspective on things. I guess we’ll see in the end, but I’m doubting that the US gov’t will simply default on its own debts and then allow massive deflation to crush anyone with credit cards or a mortgage, and the entire US economy along with it. Some kind of reset or revaluation is the only thing that would make sense in a truly deflationary environment, since it would save both the Federal government and the economy. An alternative, I suppose, would be that everyone could default if deflation made debt unpayable (the gov’t, companies, private individuals), but I can imagine that would cause the whole system to implode (imagine what would happen to the banking system if the majority of people couldn’t/refused to make their payments.) The paperwork would be unbearable, and the administration would be blamed for not taking action. Which is why, I think, government intervention will happen first. So, I just can’t see a scenario where the government wouldn’t sacrifice the currency in order to save the system. Or maybe I just don’t see how Mr Dent’s scenario can possibly play out. One of us is missing something.
Dan, One of us is missing something?
Marbles any one, I got some steelies!
Greg, its obvious that Harry Dent is an expert in his field, but what’s coming has “nothing” to do with the stock market. “ITS ABOUT THE COLLPASE OF THE DOLLAR”……PERIOD! Greg you’d have to have blinders on to not see the implications of this headline.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/currencies/australian-dollar-higher-on-us-weakness-china-moves-20150419-1mok95.html
The crash is coming, and according to the letter that was sent to the G20 by the Financial Stability Board in February, it will be sometime between now and the 15th of November. If you believe that the globalist elites plan their activities around blood moons, then you would want to go with September 28th which is the last one, or better known as Sukkot.
For most people that type of thinking seems way out there. But the reality is these type of things happen all the time. We just refuse to see them. For example in my state they paid a bounty to kill a Mormon on site until it was repealed in 1976 by governor Bond. Interment camps (FEMA) ? Its happened before, with the Japanese Interment camps during WWII. Oh and resettlement camps? We’ve done that to. Have you ever been to an Indian Reservation? Just because it hasn’t happened to you…yet doesn’t mean it won’t. My wife argues with me that there’s no way they could take down a country this big! Really? How about the former Soviet Union? I’m sure they thought that way to.
Oh and by the way Greg, this won’t be the first time the central planers have used a war to cover their tracks. They actually like it. They get to make money lending to munitions plants, and governments, while at the same time eliminating their enemies in the chaos and confusion. They’ve done for centuries. Check out the history of “The City of London Corporation”. Thanks Greg.
Excellent post, Jerry
Folks forget the jibber jabber about the strength of the dollar. IT IS TOAST!
Here is yet another fine example of how the AIIB is pulling in markets all over the world.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-32377088
When the Silk Road is complete, it will tie together not only all the markets of Europe, and Asia , but it will supplant what we offer China now in the way of sales by as much as 30%. Bottom line, China doesn’t need our market anymore. We are expendable to them.
Greg, when I hear Harry Dent talking about the Chinese bubble, I have to laugh. They’re expanding their markets globally everyday, while the only thing we’re expanding is debt ?Name the last time the U.S. has opened a market anywhere? I’m sorry, but the more I listen to Harry I’m beginning to think he is a Wall Street Shill.
Greg, I’m sure you saw this, but this is a prime example of why people need to get their money out of the bank NOW!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-20/greek-mayors-to-protest-government-decision-to-seize-their-cash
Governments always chew off their own leg when by turning on their people when they find themselves trapped. The template has been set, and anyone who doesn’t think this is NOT going to happen here is a fool. The Greece default will start the domino’s falling. Why else do you think there was a mass exodus to the AIIB?
Jerry,
I think this is a process that will be the beginning of the end. This action by the newly elected Greek government seem desperate and right in line with communists with zero respect for property rights, and yes, that includes what money is left in Greece.
Greg I’m sure you saw this, but it makes a very valid point about how the dollar controls wall street.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/21/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0NC01O20150421
Greg
HD’s statement on gold price;
“Ultimately, it could see $400 to $250 several years down the road.”
Just my opinion but I say one word…….. bollocks!
Who the hell does this guy really work for?
Last time he was on WD he made some comment about the dollar being the only safe haven and since then I have had real difficulty in taking him seriously.
On the other hand I shouldn’t be totally negative…..so I will say this
At least the man is consistent!
Cheers
Col
Colin. I would love to see his vault full of gold. Id promise not to tell. LOL
JC
Me To!
LOL
Col
Rick Ackerman says much the same-the $ is going to the moon,gold is going to about $800 for starters,and possibly much lower.
Jim
Oh well…They must be right then.
Cheers
Col
Martin Armstrong says something similar.
Emeth
Three people now Huh.
Oh well that proves it then.
They must be right!
Cheers
Col
Colin Here is a quote from Bill Holter. Does he not understand the reality, gold is not priced in dollars, dollars are priced in gold? It is not the ounce of gold that “changes”, it is the perceived value and the supply of dollars that changes!
Furthermore we all tend to dwell on the fact that the price of gold is the comex gold futures price…..bollocks to this concept too!
Quite frankly this method of valuing gold is absolutely farcical and not the least reason being because that market is totally manipulated by TPTB.
The other overwhelming reason is that the comex price is a futures market where traders who don’t have any physical gold sell to buyers who don’t want physical gold!
[ Smaulgold has taken pains to point out on WD]
Most of these trade are settled in cash.
So by basic everyday logic if the comex price of gold [god help us] ever went as low as $250 then this would be absolutely farcical and NOT the real price of gold per se.
Cheers
Col
Colin If gold goes that low I will start selling my whiskey stash to buy it. No I will not tell where it is.
JC
And I just love JD’s but I might even trade my stash too….but I’m greedy so i’ll wait until the gold price is hovering around…. say the $250 mark or even perhaps a tad lower before I make my move.
Some say this. Some say that. Who you gonna believe. They all have their reasons, but they can’t all be right! I’ll go with biblical reason. Neither be a borrower or lender be.
Its funny greg everyone you have on seems to believe a crash is coming but have differences between wheather owning golgd or silver almost makes me want to sell ive lost alot already not sure i could take another hit. Also just wondering any chance of getting Hal Lindsey on i know you spoke about it in the past . just asking
Gary,
Everything is on sale, the dollar may become worthless, but gold not in a long shot, unless in gods kingdome. Ya when kingdom comes!
What happens to precious metals prices if confidence in the government becomes a big issue? I have noticed perception more than reality often drives markets. When is perception trumped by reality? Harry’s commentary makes me ask these questions.
Government confidence is already an issue, metal prices are being suppressed and it’s even admitted.
I wonder if he works for the government. Didn’t watch the video since he says the same thing.
Can you say Keynesian Harry?
Print all you want; it makes absolutely no difference.
Right Harry?
Yes Econman, Ask any German, ask Der Führer.
It makes absolutely no difference, whatsoever!
Dent certainly promotes a very uncomfortable contrarian position which your questions even further highlighted.
Deflation is reduced dollars, credit and monetary velocity chasing goods and services. What Dent fails to realize is that when the crash occurs goods and services will collapse to very low levels with, in my opinion, the ratio then favoring inflation.
The crash in goods and services simply cannot be ignored.
What happened to the adage that wealth does not disappear but just changes hands? Much of this money is quarantined in the derivative markets so it is not presently chasing any goods or services.
Only when real over valued assets like land and shares lose value , will people look for liquid assets like gold to retain wealth. The $100 trillion will not disappear all at once. Many are already getting out of the share market sensing a collapse.
PS. Just heard that Japan has agreed to buy $ 2 trillion of US Treasuries . I assume this is to help prop up the US $.
RE: “What happened to the adage that wealth does not disappear but just changes hands?”
This is what he is saying, but the wealth in an asset can be worth only cents on the dollar. For the past 70 years we have lived in an inflationary world, where the sum of all assets have increased in value. We are inexperienced and unprepared for a deflationary world. During the siege of Stallingrad, a loaf of bread was worth a lot of gold. Prices on assets move depending upon demand and other forces. This includes gold….
The reason why gold went down was manipulation ( paper market) nothing else , it’s nothing to do with honest demand , so making predictions about gold by Harry Dent is ridiculous .Good luck with keeping dollars.
ah, finally someone who gets it right…..rest of comments are lame…. what nobody wants to talk about is Manipulation….even though they have all be caught doing it and reported in both alternative media and main stream media…
they will continue to manipulate as long as they can…..Harry Dent never wants to talk about this part… Russia is not hurting either like Dent says…their currency has rallied big time… western bankers are losing control… the dollar was supposed to have 1 last spike, shipped out to sea and then dumped…. all part of the game plan….
Dent says: “gold bugs get everything right “except” they don’t get how fast money can disappear” … I take “exception” to that statement … perhaps if there was “no Fed” to print more money … then we would “get” how fast money can disappear … but since the Fed still exists … it will expand the money supply exactly like the universe expands … forever!
If 2000 years ago Dent’s great, great, etc. grandfather deposited just “one copper penny” in a saving account that earned on average 6% interest compounded annually … that one copper penny would be worth (after 2,000 years of exponential growth) over $4 Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion dollars today … now lets subtract 1000 times $100 trillion of this wealth and make it disappear like magic … now that’s serious deflation … what remains of that one copper penny? … only 4 hundred million trillion trillion dollars!
The point I’m making is that no matter how many times we get these “one off” deflation setbacks … it can’t compete with the Fed’s “no limits” exponential growth of the money supply. So every down turn in gold is simply a buying opportunity for us to use to pass some of our wealth down to future generations … and those who inherit it will be glad we didn’t part with our gold … because of the fear of a “one off” deflation setback … just like I imagine Dent would be grateful today if just “one copper penny” was put in a savings account for him 2000 years ago by one of his relatives earning a compounded interest rate of 6% annually due to a Fed that exponentially grows the money supply each and every year.
Paul I know someone who’s parents did invest in those 2,000 yr old pennies. We call them Rothschild. Enjoyed your post. Additionally the dollars will be erased from overseas in short days of a derivatives crash. They will come back to American banks in exchange for coins to be melted, or buy land, food and anything to dump them worthless bucks into. Creating a bank shutdown.
Speaking of war… Isn’t it interesting that NORAD is now in the process of moving back into their old Cheyenne Mountain facility? When asked why, they said “because it’s EMP proof”. Well, it’s also handily nuclear war proof… So “when all else fails, (and) they take us to war”, as Gerald Celente says, at least NORAD will be conveniently ready for it.
And for the Love of Christ why is the US joining in and backing Saudi Arabia’s savage war of annihilation against the entire Yemen population just because some of them dared to overthrow the US-backed puppet government … the US is not only providing bombs, ammunition and guidance systems to assist the Saudi-led campaign to indiscriminately kill civilians … but the US is actually providing logistical support “to maximize” the impact of the bombing raids against food depots, water facilities, refugee camps and critical civilian infrastructure … deliberately targeting and killing innocent civilians to create widespread famine and panic so as to foster a social collapse … is simply contrived brutality against innocent women and children under the “guise of war” … this is despicable and unacceptable behavior … as Albert Einstein said “all war is nothing but an act of hate, violence and murder portrayed as noble heroism and love-of-country.”
When people fight for “self determination and freedom from foreign oppression” like we Americans did not so long ago … our sympathies should be for the “freedom fighters” trying to break the bondage of a despicable King or puppet dictator … the US should not be going out of its way “to help maximize the killing and starving of innocent women and children” for a criminal Saudi monarchy that was implicated in the killing of thousands of Americans on 9/11.
Did anyone notice that it seems as though the USA has “two” Governments … look at Yemen for example … one part of our government is helping the “freedom fighters” by providing them with American weapons which were used to successfully push the current president into indefinite exile … and another part of our government (Langley?) is backing the Saudi air operation “Decisive Storm”??
Because the Saudi Air Operation (even with the bombing of food, water and other civilian infrastructure) is not having the desired effect … troops from the Saudi National Guard are now entering Yemen to oppose the freedom fighters (who have the backing of Iran) … so now what was an airborne war … is now being ratcheted up into a land war.
Iran dispatched the 34th fleet of the Iranian Navy to the Gulf of Aden and Bab al-Mandab Strait to give support to the freedom fighters that will now be facing “boots on the ground”… and we have one part of the “bi-polar” US … dispatching an aircraft carrier (the USS Theodore Roosevelt) toward the waters off Yemen “to confront” the Iranian Navy… while another part of the US government is negotiating with Iran to make an “overall deal” that will “reduce tensions” in that part of the world??
Seems as though there is a “major conflict” going on between a war-like faction and peace faction within our US Government!
Let’s hope for the sake of humanity the words of Einstein are heeded: “all war is nothing but an act of hate, violence and murder portrayed as noble heroism and love-of-country” … because nuclear armed Russia will not idly stand by in this developing conflagration!
I must say, whether people like Mr. Dent’s analysis or not, I would agree with him on having mini bottles of Bourbon… Hard liquor (anything over 30% alcohol – 60 proof) has limitless shelf life if stored unopened in a cool, dark place, and only gets better tasting to boot. Plus, even if you don’t need them for bartering, they make a wonderful “after a crisis” celebration tool… Or even a pre-crisis calming de-stressor tool… Just saying… 😉
been a whisky stacker for sometime now Anne,think it will be a doosy to trade with when the time comes.
down unda Jeffery ,
Gary Cooper drove a Doozy and I saw a real Duesenberg at the Henry Ford museum, Dearborn Michigan last wednesday, Thats why I know a real doosy when I see one and you sir are certainly a doosy yourself! You too Greg!
doozy: something that is unusually good, bad, big, severe, etc. . . Extraordinary one of its kind.
With an s or z, depending on hemisphere!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1kQZB6KT-k
Whew, Greg, I am almost speechless… Great interview and we will listen to this again. I do not like the $700 or so gold but a whole lot to listen to and assimilate. Thanks again for your contribution to our knowledge and comprehension of these affairs.
Yours in Faith and Liberty, FN, DB
The deflation/inflation argument is interesting as to who will be right. I have to say, based on history, deflation seems to make more sense, as hyperinflation is a relatively rare occurrence . I also think people talking war are missing the boat…hard to fight if you’re broke…Dent is right, WW2 started after Europe had recovered economically, only the US was still mired in the depression. Where Dent might be wrong is when this façade collapses…in an age of unlimited QE, and central banks doing things never done before, predicting the end game is impossible.
Mr. Hunter,
Thank you for having Harry Dent on. So many intelligent individuals with such varying opinions. Mr. Dent is at least honest in saying he doesn’t know everything. Mr. Dent has several possible scenarios, he explains, as best as anyone can, we have never been in this situation before. There are no footings to latch onto; no foundation on which to take a definitive position. One thing they all seem to agree on is something bad is going to happen, something very bad and we best be prepared.
Gather together with your loved ones, friends, or neighbors. Obtain some gold and or silver, some cash, a lot of supplies, protection, your Bible and pray. Hopefully, no matter what comes to pass, we will come out of this stronger, smarter and more humble than we are today. Great job Mr. Hunter!
John
John,
Thank you. I am trying to put up many opinions as possible and let the folks decided what are the nuggets. Paper is going to get destroyed that is for sure.
Greg
Well Greg, I decided that this person is a total bankster shill and you just wasted your time.
well we are seeing first hand what is happening in Argentina and Venezuela. Inflation, shortages. Not saying Dent is wrong but his scenario doesn’t jive with what we are seeing in these two countries for example… Chip
Yes, and thank you again for putting up both sides. sometimes we get so focused on one out come. Maybe that’s why God said trust in The Lord with all your heart and lean NOT on your own understanding; In all your ways acknowledge Him, and He will direct your paths.. we can do all the research we can but we need to take that to The Lord and pray and ask Him for understanding and direction….
I agree Greg. More voices not less. That being said, I don’t think this guy has a clue as to what is going to happen. He acts like this is just another bump in the road. We are in uncharted territory…all currencies are fiat and all governments are broke. He obviously hasn’t been watching the BRICS, the new Asian bank etc. If he thinks the dollar is going to remain the reserve currency, he is either an idiot or…no, he is an idiot. Thanks for letting him speak though!
Good interview Greg , if paper money gets destroyed then I think golden & silver has to be at the front why would it go down in price , if the stock market drops 10,000 points as Harry Dent says he could do people have to invest in something tangible ,
Just google- Harry Dent prediction record
HOW CAN WE HAVE DEFLATION WHEN MONEY CAN BE PRINTED TO INFINITY??? WE ARE SEEING ALL THE SIGNS OF WORLDWIDE HYPERINFLATION. MONEY IS BECOMING AN ILLUSION. THOSE WHO PRODUCE THINGS OF WORTH ARE HEADING FOR THE EXIT.ALARM BELLS ARE ALL RINGING!!! IF WE HAVE EYES TO SEE, WE WILL UNDERSTAND THE TRUTH. TRUTH IS WE HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM OUR FOUNDATION OF GOD AND THE CONSTITUTION! I BELIEVE JOHNATHAN KAHN ANSWERED GODS TIMETABLE QUESTION. IF WE TURN BACK TO GOD AND THE CONSTITUTION EVERYTHING WILL TURNAROUND. HOPEFULLY PEOPLE HAVE THERE TWO YEAR SUPPLY OF FOOD WATER FUEL THAT THE PROPHET HAS WARNED US ALL TO HAVE. HOPEFULLY WE ALL HAVE A WAY TO PRODUCE SOMETHING OF VALUE WHEN THE MONIES BECOME WORTHLESS. HOPEFULLY PEOPLE WILL NOT BECOME ANGRY. IF WE WORK WITH OUR NEIGHBORS AND DEPEND ON GOD WE CAN MAKE IT! THANKS FOR YOUR VALUABLE INFORMATION GREG! YOU ROCK, TODD
Greg,
I always enjoy listening to Harry Dent since his predictions are different from most others I hear on your site. Like you I want to hear all viewpoints, but gold seems to be holding in a tight range despite all the manipulation going on to suppress it. Demand is simply too high for it to drop as far as he predicts. However, if what Harry says about gold is true in respect to deflation than I see that as a great buying opportunity in the near future.
I do believe equities will fall sharply as their valuations are overinflated due to QE and stock buybacks. The dollar may rise in the short term, but will fall thereafter and PM’s may finally have some real price discovery. The $100 trillion wealth prediction is scary for sure and if that comes to fruition I may also have to get shotguns and liquor to keep a sane head! I hope he comes back in the summer or fall to revisit these dire predictions.
Who has the money or storage for 2 years of food and water and fuel? As for gold and silver I think ” Astonished Neighbor in Texas” wrote that their neighbor got” swat teamed ” and the cops took their gold and silver plus everything else of value. So I’m thinking, they think its worth stealing it must be worth having. This might sound weird but at time like this I wish Edgar Cayce was still around. He could tell us what to do as his motives were pure. I would have more confidence in someone like him over any of the financial people.
And I wanted to add this about Todd’s comment, “that it would all turn around if we as a country would turn back to God and the Constitution”. This was the smartest most concise sentence I have read since this started in 2007. And I agree, the only solution. So simple. Bravo!!!
You do! If you buy food storage and rotate through it, you save money which enables you to buy more. Over time, you can accumulate it without any extra cost!
Bob Lamb. I bought efood direct in a panic years back and still have not used it. If you buy it cheap enough it is good. Allen Ols has shown me how to buy and store food. . It can be a art.
Buy in bulk at a discount, store in large containers.
I am in Nashville Tn.
https://youtu.be/JCXazYPpciU
START WITH WHEAT. I BUY MINE AT COSTCO IN 45 lB SEALED BUCKETS FOR 18$ EACH. THESE LAST FOREVER ALMOST AND MAKE GREAT BREAD COOKIES ETC.
This Harry Dent maybe a HARVARD Grad. Economics. But still drinks the KOOL-AID Russia wants UKRAINE. Its YOUR UNIPOLAR MIND thinking that makes the WORLD dangerous. Your WAR MONGERING BROKE COUNTRY IS DESPERATE Geopolictically surrounding Russia and China. USA is BROKE Politically MORALLY and DEFINATELY Financially. Your days are up the BRICS dont want ANYTHING to do with you IDIOTS the Asian development bank is the future. The USA trade dollar will be finish and the petro dollar is comming to a END!!! As for the reserve currency USA ABUSE this powers SDRs will be the new currency. USA is so DESPERATE and CRAZY will cause WW#3
Not Harry Dent again! Maybe everyone should go listen to his recordings the Great Depression Ahead he predicted one of the big investments as gold. Here’s a posting I found on Amazon looking for this recording which should detail everything you need to know. For some reason I keep thinkin’ Snake Oil Salesman and Psychic Reader which is never wrong no matter what happens. These aren’t my words but a poster on Amazon which seems to be on the money:
1st, Harry Dent is NOT an economist, he works with demographics. 2nd, in his last book “The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History: 2006-2010” he predicted the Dow to be 40,000 in 2009. You call that spot on?? Is that just a finer detail?? Was 2006 the start of the Greatest Boom in History as the title indicates? Harry Dent is very good at putting quotes in books and his newsletters that he can draw on as being right no matter what happens much like a psychic reading. When he has made big calls to the extent of making it the title of a book, he was dead wrong. Both AIM and Mass Mutual once had mutual funds based on the Dent philosophy and were sub-managed by him. Both have gone bust as being some of the worst performing mutual funds in recent history. If you followed his investment advise over the last 5 years you would be flat broke by now.
I do not understand how extinguishing liabilities (default/debt restructuring/bankruptcy) lowers the money supply. Can someone explain how this could occur? John Williams?
It would seem to me that the dollars created by the creation of debt don’t just vanish when the debt is later defaulted on or extinguished. Deleveraging is surely deflationary, but that is deferent than default which seems at best inflation neutral to me. I could understand that if I’m a creditor and my assets (debts owed to me) vanish in an economic collapse, that I might buy less, thus reducing demand (deflationary), but that would seemingly be offset by my debtors willingness to buy more once free of the debt owed to me.
Dollars are magically created when credit is extended; they are then typically spent into the economy. In a default, the dollars are not rounded up and turned back in to pay off the debt. They thus remain out in the economy — inflationary. Economic collapse is surely deflationary, but perhaps not when the offered cure is limitless QE. Imagine how inflationary it would be if everyone got a million dollars today on credit — and a free bankruptcy tomorrow.
As usual, I think Dent is mistaken.
Different not deferent. Yikes on the autocorrect
The difference between Dent and the gold bugs is a most fundamental assumption concerning irresponsible governments and their currencies … Dent assumes whatever happens the government “will survive” … and thus the fiat paper currency the government issues will be worth holding … while gold bugs fear the government “won’t survive” and thus holding the fiat paper currency of a collapsed government would be lunacy … as it will become as worthless as Confederate dollars … of the two possibilities the Dent assumption contains more risk because if he is wrong he is totally wiped out … while if the gold bugs are wrong about a total collapse of government … the government will likely have only survived by creating massive inflation which is still a win for them … of course such a government will also be rewriting the rules to increase their control over market forces in order to force stability … and such a government will also increasingly politicize the economy (pretending all is well) while preparing to create a radically different monetary system … this can also be a win for the gold bugs because survival of the government may actually require some form of gold backing for its currency because politics doesn’t create real wealth … nor does manipulating statistics and markets … nor printing dollars … real wealth isn’t the size of the fiat government check you receive or the nominal level of a stock market index … but rather it is the real goods and services the economy produces that ultimately determines the standard of living of a nation.
Both Dent and the gold bugs fall into a trap if they invest on the assumption that the government “will survive” or the government “won’t survive” … as we could get something “in between” where we limp along as a sick and dysfunctional economy … but I think the gold bugs have the edge in such a situation … because to keep things going without a complete collapse the government will have to print and print and print!
Greg,
HD never fails to present a myriad of predictions whilst supporting each one with persuasive argument and logic. Some of his thoughts I can agree with :
– The Bubble cannot go on forever – Stocks/Debt creation
– Wealth/Debt destruction will occur
– His timing for cycle bottoms and absolute bottoms
– Being in Cash to take advantage of depressed prices
However Harry contends :
– that we avoided a Depression – even with 23% Unemployment and 50Mln people under Food Stamps. REALLY !!!
– A $100 TLN hit to the World’s Wealth is not supportive of higher Gold Prices. If investors (smart money) know what is about to unfold…then there is every conceivable chance that they will protect some of their “hard earned ” wealth and buy Real Estate, Fine Art, Collectables and GOLD. Aha…that is what they are doing.
Why doesn’t Harry acknowledge that the “Paper” Gold price that he keeps referring to is artificial too…and that another mechanism is required to determine REAL price? Physical price setting through an unbiased exchange is one way.
– A gold price @ $700 doesn’t bode well for the producers/miners as each one of them would be out of business….much like the soon to be shale Oil producers. If you thought that the debt associated with the Shale / Fracking was troublesome (~$2.5 TLN) what about the investment in Gold mining ? What happens in a world without Gold producers…..gold would go…..NO DELIVERY…..NAME…YOUR….PRICE !!!
– the bubble in Bonds/ Stocks / Real Estate should also be matched with the bubble in the USD. It too has to crash. I will concur with JW’s & JT’s thoughts on this.
– The focus on the debt and its destruction should be heeded…but more so on the Derivatives.
2007/08 was more about the Derivatives than most are aware. This beast has not left…it has grown exponentially. It is the one that is causing the current cracks in the system. It is the same that is making or has made the CB’s bankrupt and insolvent. It is the same that has caused the lack of collateral that the CB’s are feverishly and opaquely creating out of thin air to calm the markets and to paint over the damage that the Gamblers have sustained and continue to …to this day.
– Why didn’t Harry mention the RESET ?
Currency alignment and having Gold supporting the Monetary system are part of the agenda of the world’s financial elite. Any discussion about the financial system would not be complete without some commentary about that RESET. That Reset by the way I believe is now in full swing…we are seeing this unfold right before our eyes and yet we remain blinded.
Who pulled the Derivatives trigger ? See if Harry can answer that!!
SIG
AGREED!
Unemployment during “the great depression” was estimated at 23-25%.
True unemployment in the US at this very moment is virtually identical.
Soup lines have been re-invented and are now called “food stamps”.
There are currently somewhere around 50 million US citizens on food stamps. That by the way works out to be about one-sixth of the population!
Now I haven’t been able to find out what the true peak attendance for soup lines was. However I would hazard a guess that as a percentage of total population it would have been a very remarkably similar figure.
[could any of you WD followers out there enlighten me as to what that figure was?]
And Harry say’s you guys have avoided a depression!
Others say that there is a slow recovery in progress.
All I can do is shake my head.
Cheers
Col
from PCR
agent in charge of the FBI anthrax investigation who has turned whistleblower. http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/04/head-fbis-anthrax-investigation-calls-b-s.html
It was obvious to any person familiar with the techniques that governments use to erode liberty by destroying the protection given to citizens by law that the purpose of the anthrax letters, especially the letters to senators Patrick Leahy and Tom Daschle, was to raise the fear level in order to guarantee the passage of the tyrannical PATRIOT Act.
The PATRIOT Act was a decisive blow against American liberty. The act has served to negate the US Constitution in the 21st century and to endow the federal government with unaccountable and tyrannical powers.
I agree with Mark. Paper gold exists at 100:1 ratio to tangible gold. Bitcoin went up over 100 times in price based on fear and speculation with no real substance backing it.
Deflation is rising unemployment and falling prices due to not enough money and confidence in the real economy. However there are many people who have managed to save. When the “bail ins ” begin ,where will people put their money especially with Citi Bank wants to make cash illegal ?
The other panic will happen when the share market collapses. Many are already pulling their money out and finding other more secure assets.
In 1950 the price of gold was $35 per oz with price regulation.The median household income was $1500 pa. Today the median household income is $52,000 pa and the price of gold is $1209. The ratio of income to gold in 1950 was 43:1. Today the ratio of income to gold is the same at 43:1.
In 1950 they were on the gold standard and did not have all the global economic problems we have today. So to say gold will fall to $700 per oz is stretching a long bow particularly with China being able to back the Yuan with lots of it. What happens when the price manipulation collapses in a panic for the doors ? Asset over valuation is global and there are few places to secure it. Most of the PM’s are almost at the cost of production and they have industrial uses .
The real rate of inflation since 1970 is 7% pa. Since 2008 if we included the inflation of properties, shares and derivatives , it would off the charts but inflation is just measured in the consumer economy excluding housing and inflated share prices. Because the real rate of inflation is under estimated, real wages have fallen. Now it takes two working people to equal the income of one working person in the 1950’s and they pay far more in tax.
Gold will at the very least maintain your wealth at present values while all other assets with the exception of good rural land will fall.
Dent is a loser, he has never, ever been right about anything NEVER. why is this guy still invited to speak or write books?
If there I one long term prediction most in the know would agree with is the price of gold will rise while the US dollar will decline.
I don’t know who would be foolish enough to buy into Dent’s advice but those that do are going to be in for a rude awakening. This guy makes crazy forecasts to separate himself from those with some actual knowledge of what’s going on around the world with the goal of getting a few to buy into his BS. He is no different than Kevin Trudeau and other shysters trying to capitalize on the naïve and uniformed.
Hopefully, the next guest will be someone worth listening to as this interview was to me a complete waste of time.
Greg, Please, don’t pull a CNBC your show
This fool is doing the Alternative Media rounds showing himself to be incredibly uneducated in respect to large scale manipulation, financial repression schemes and hyper0printing of currency. Why? Why put this guy on? He belongs on CNBS not your show. Please Greg, just because “gold seek radio” had him on doesn’t mean you have to. You are of a much much higher standard than (full of himself) Chris W. at gold seek.
Please Greg, stick with the program.
Al,
I try to put out a variety of views and let people decide for themselves. Dent is a best selling author and he’s right about one thing paper wealth is going to get torched in the next crash. Folks are smart enough here to think for themselves.
Greg
Greg,
Thank you for an interesting interview with Harry Dent. However, you neglected to challenge him with hard questions about the precious metals. The next time you interview Mr. Dent, please hold his feet to the fire and ask him what he thinks of the evidence provided by GATA, Ted Butler, Ed Steer and others who allege that the LBMA and Comex markets are blatantly rigged every day through naked shorting and high frequency trading in order to manipulate technical analysis, paint the tape for trend followers, and destroy investor interest for political and unethical ends. Ask Mr. Dent why gold should ever drop to the absolutely absurd low hundreds when the gold price is already near or below the general cost of production. Ask Mr. Dent what direction the price of gold would likely move in other countries if gold drops as sharply in US dollar terms as he predicts. Does he actually believe ANY physical supply would remain available anywhere at US $250 to $400? Would not China, India, and others buy every last lick of gold long before the price could get that low? Ask Mr. Dent what the effect will be when the developing Asian physical gold exchanges take the price setting mechanism for precious metals away from the COMEX futures market–or if a COMEX delivery default occurs. Please ask Mr. Dent and every other technical analyst whom you interview these and other hard questions, including asking whether investors should continue to rely on technical and cycle analysis if the markets are indeed rigged and that current rigging is increasingly vulnerable to a catastrophic failure. Thank you my friend and God bless you.
The one thing that I was able to get out of Mr.Dent was that we are in new territory.
The circumstances the World finds itself in today are largely first time events.
Never has the World been faced with so much debt.
Never have we had to face the realities of what happens when the can gets too heavy to kick further down the road.
The only thing we know for sure is that our requirements for survival, food, water, and energy must be paid for with something tangible.
Man has used many forms of currency over time and the one constant is that FIAT currency never remains the same.
Values and confidence will always fluctuate. At times confidence will simply evaporate.
For many of us here we may not know for certain if the decisions we have made to prepare are correct ones or totally wrong.
What we do know is that for most of us we have paid a hefty price for our point of view. Often that price has been ridicule and or disbelief from those around us.
In my view our biggest risk is the one that comes from those who have not prepared.
Most have not prepared and many are not even aware of the risks that surrounds us.
For many who speak out the cause themselves to become targets of those that would prefer that the truth remains hidden.
To be prepared is to be aware of what surrounds us.
Sometimes silence is a worthy strategy.
Is silence appropriate now….only you can decide.
Greg did you see my second post. It was there for moderation and vanished.Ross
Rss,
This is the only post I have seen. Please post it again. I have had some problems with security features and I don’t know it this has anything to do with your post disappearing. So sorry for the trouble.
Greg
No worries ,they are both published.Ross
Greg;
I like Harry. He challenges my assumptions. We have two major camps out there. We have the hyperinflation camp and the deflation camp. And some see both….extreme deflation followed by hyperinflation. There are tremendous educated people in both major camps. I’m agnostic on this myself as I don’t have the education and background to figure out where the road will lead that we’ve never been down before.
However Harry seems to see silver and gold as commodities….which they are. What he doesn’t seem to see is that they are also money. We have 6000 years of human history to attest to this as well as it’s honest biblical money as well.
In Harry’s example of gold going down to 700, his reasoning is that the dollar is appreciating as the last currency standing therefore the dollar is more valuable and gold goes down against the dollar. So he pretty much sees cash as king. We err imo when we look at gold/silver priced in any currency. A $20 gold piece would buy you a beef cow or a fine suit of clothing in 1920. It will buy you the same thing today. There have been many times of both inflation and deflation in the last 100 years and what gold can buy has remained pretty steady. In extreme deflation even if gold goes down nominally to $700 it will buy much more than $700 in today’s money. Therefore gold does well in both inflation and deflation. What won’t matter is the price in dollars but how many ounces you hold.
If Harry is wrong and the dollar goes into the dustbin of history I would rather hold gold/silver. If Harry is right I still want gold/silver along with some physical cash. I am glad to see that he advocates being prepared against an uncertain future. Gold and silver imo is only to be acquired with spare wealth after all the physical needs are taken care of. If you don’t have food/shelter/water/heat, ect taken care of when the society goes belly up you would be far better to take care of that first before you consider gold and silver. The metals are not investments….they are for preservation of wealth. You take that mindset and you’ll be o.k. whether Harry is right on the deflation side or if most other are right on the hyperinflation side or a combination of both.
But most important are spiritual preparations. What does it profit a man to have a lot of physical wealth and preparations but yet be a spiritual pauper? There are a lot of rich and wealthy people and with all their money they can’t buy peace of mind or peace of heart. Christ alone can grant that peace that will see you through this time no matter what happens.
Thanks again for another great interview and Harry challenges my thinking. I’d like to think I’m mature enough to have my assumptions challenged without getting snarky in the process. Who knows…..he just may be right!!
It is futile to make predictions when the markets are rigged. You can’t used charts, history or even common sense when the elites are making the rules as they go. No matter what happens, the elites make money because they cause what happens and are in position to reap the rewards.
the answer to these questions will for tell our future.
How long will perpetually increasing debt persist before a violent reset occurs?
Are gold and silver purchases more sensible than investing in overpriced paper debts?
I believe we shall know the answer to these questions soon.
This may seem off topic, but I feel it is related somehow. On April 13, five Wal-Mart stores in California, Florida, Texas, and Oklahoma were closed for 6 months or more with only 5 hours’ notice to the store management and staff, laying off hundreds of people immediately, due to alleged “plumbing problems.” (see http://www.sgvtribune.com/business/20150413/530-pico-rivera-walmart-employees-laid-off-after-sudden-closure-of-supercenter and http://www.inquisitr.com/2021165/jade-helm-walmart-conspiracy-biggest-plumbing-job-in-history-or-something-far-more-sinister/ for details).
My husband works for Wal-Mart and this is just not how they usually do things. From the second article:
“The Walmart closures all reportedly followed the same format at each location. Walmart officials from the corporate office arrived at each store and called a meeting with senior staff to inform them that the retail location would be closed that same evening.”
The corporate office is in Bentonville, Arakansas. Wal-Mart has established communication channels with every one of their stores and a company policy limiting travel to the minimum necessary, even requiring their executives to stay in the cheapest motels possible. It’s all part of the Wal-Mart “culture.” So to send corporate officials to personally oversee the closing of these stores, at such a distance and on such short notice, does not fit with their usual practices. Everything is announced months in advance and that makes the following statements from the first article even more suspicious:
” James Enriquez, the city’s public works director, said officials have not been notified of plumbing issues at the store. The company would be required to pull permits before undertaking extensive work.
…“If I were a property owner I’d want to make sure my store was closed as little as possible,” Enriquez said. “I would want a permit to be in place the day I was going to close — but we haven’t received anything.”
Spokeswoman Garcia said the closure would begin at 7 p.m. Monday [April 13] and could last six months or longer depending on the scope of needed work.”
That would put the closure out to mid-October … or longer, according to Garcia. It remains to be seen whether this is significant or not. I do not feel it has anything to do with Jade Helm because at least two of the states are not part of Jade Helm, but I also find it difficult to believe that they need that much time to repair plumbing or sewer connections. There was no mention of other store alterations and the whole thing is highly suspicious, even if Jade Helm were not happening.
That’s as far as I can go with this, but it certainly has my attention, given everything else that is surfacing in connection with this fall.
NC Gal, someone I know who in her younger days had a lot of connections in media, business, sports and the WH, said it has to do with wage increases. And shutting those stores was a message.
NC Gal,
If the closing of the 5 Wal-Mart stores weren’t blamed on plumbing wouldn’t the logical person assume that perhaps that the shuttering of business had something to do with a flagging economy. How many times has our hapless media touted Wal-Mart as the “bell weather” of our ever growing and resilient economy? With the amount of government subsidies Wal-Mart receives(via EBT cards etc), why wouldn’t this organization go along with a narrative that wouldn’t give this administration another black eye.
Just remember this is the same administration that never wastes a crisis. What better way is there to “Dominate the Human Factor” which is the subtitle of Jade Helm– then to use these stores as FEMA distribution centers.
jade helm 15
jade or china
helm or control
15 or 2015 paraphrased from the HT LETTER
Correction: the subtitle of this exercise is “Master the Human Domain”. Does this sound like George Orwell or George Washington-you decide.
interim FEMA camps.” plumbing ” is to build massive showers for the sheep ( or worse)
Harry makes large and perhaps faulty assumptions:
there will be massive private debt defaults
those defaults will be in dollars
If dollar wealth is destroyed on that large of a scale, why would anyone assume that the dollar itself would continue to have any value, despite their lower number?
Wouldn’t confidence in the dollar, debt and paper money at that point be shattered?
Harry doesn’t see to think so, after all he advises having your “safe” money in a e-trade/Charles Swabe style money market account.
Further, if all that dollar debt is destroyed, FEWER dollars would be needed to repay those debts.
A drowning man will seek what ever is floatable. I would agree deflation could happen if we did not have any alternative to turn too. However there is a floatable currency in place, and ready to take the place of the dollar. Shanghai will say to America here is our gold now show us yours. Then we will see what will be the reserve.
It takes 16 Yuan to buy 1 dollar. So if China prints 16 trillion it would buy 1 trillion dollars.
Suppose the dollar is no good in the world except the 3.2 million people in America using it. What would the ratio be then. Also consider China has 1.4 billion people forced to use the Yuan in there country, and if they become the leading world currency would they not be the best looking horse in the glue factory. Enough to make a body say HUM ?
Jc, I know u meant 325.126 million people
Your cheating again allen.
yeah some big holes in Dent’s analysis. Seems to ignore the BRICS and China and Russia wanting to dump the dollar asap. Id say he doesn’t read PCR’s website too often either.
David S . Allen Ols and I sit for hours comparing notes. Eliminating the impossibilities. Allen, being a military man has proven to me the US can control the world threw might. So we concluded the Chinese do not want to go to war with the USA rather they will isolate the USA by turning the monetary tables world wide. It will not look like any one country did the damage, rather all countries will blame the USA.
Allen said Russia, and China has only 1 aircraft carrier. And the Russians are busy in Ukraine. USA is battle hardened and capable of matching them. But it would be brutal and both Russia and china want to keep what they have achieved and want to let America implode.
Interesting perspective. By what mechanism would $100 trillion just disappear? Price deflation in certain sectors is occurring now as a function of lower demand/higher supply, concomitantly, more greenbacks are entering the system via the plethora of QE programs. Since inflation is a currency event, and the printing presses are all “on steroids” I can’t see how hyperinflation doesn’t happen; as at some point manufacturing will slow or stop leaving a “finite” (i.e. un-replenishable) amount of goods/services being chased by hoards and hoards of dollars – things like bourbon, single malt, gold, silver and lead “bullion.” This guy’s analysis is as clear as mud. Here is a ping for Jim Sinclair. Keep up the good work Greg!!
Harry’s a smart guy. Fact is though, no one knows exactly what is going to happen or when. I enjoy his alternate point of view. And I will, the the extent I can, try and prepare for both scenario’s. Some metals, some lead, some cash, some food, some booze, some land, tools, and the skills to put them to good use… Chip
Don’t forget your bible Chip!! 😉
Please leave already, Harry. Go to that imaginary bunker you have. When this thing hits for real and you can’t make any more money off of selling it, you will have less than 48 hours to get to that imaginary haven. Good luck with that!
Hi Greg
Gold is manipulated,just watch every night at 03 that is when trading is slow and it takes less money to drive it down.At the moment they are keeping it in the $1200 range,this pattern is so plain to see.
If you look back at when gold dropped,large amounts of bullion was dropped on the market at once,the figure was that seemed to be suggested was 4oo tons,who has that amount.shortly before this GS was screaming that it was going down big time,so you have make your mind,is it manipulated?
Hi Frank. See: Howe vs Bank for International Settlements, et al, — in one hearing a U.S. attorney got up and said that the U.S. government claims the power to secretly rig the gold market (and for that matter all financial markets). That’s public record. The assistant U.S. attorney got up in support of the government’s summary judgment motion and said that while the U.S. government did not admit doing anything that the plaintiff complained of (manipulating the gold price), the U.S. government claimed the power to do everything that the plaintiff complained of as authorized by the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, as amended in the 1970’s. Howe lost. Lesson: They can and will do anything with the gold price that they wish.
Greg, how about having two or three of these guests from different camps on at the same time for an honest debate? That way they can ask each other questions and perhaps a better understanding of the bigger picture will emerge.
Joe,
I have already booked my friend Bill Holter to give his take on this. We all agree on two things. This is unsustainable and we are headed for a crash. We are only talking about what to do and what it will look like.
Greg
greg;
bill says; he will be on May 8th, so esr may 10
Actually Allen I move him up to this coming week. He and Dent agree on a few points such as there is going to be a huge paper loss. They disagree on how to protect your assets and your family. It will be interesting. I think Dent is a good man with legit credentials. He sure made us all think, and that is always good.
Greg
Your site is the best Greg ! Where else can you have a good debate and fun at the same time. I love this site. Thanks to all that comment here. Even the trolls.
Ditto JC!
And i love giving the trolls a bit of stick too!
Cheers and thanks 2u2
Col
From one troll to another, your welcome sir!
great I read Holter daily
Greg,
You kept Harry on the straight and narrow. I do like the fact Harry can say ‘I don’t know’,
it is a sign of a man with some intellectual honesty. Harry seems to be an expert on deflation / depression economics. With that said, I do not agree with Harry as far as the dollar goes.
The dollar is its death throes as it is backed by promises only. A new trade vehicle called the Yuan is on the horizion backed by enormous Gold reserves and the economic might of China’s industry and will replace the Petro dollar in due time!!! Americas controlling forces; its banking system and its control of the SWIFT banking system will be challenged by the AIIB and BRICS confederacy. Eventually, the Federal Reserve will inflate the dollar to infinity by purchasing Government bonds to infinity. Look for taxes to explode at all levels of Government and more Government control at all levels. The Government will inflate the dollar by increasing the money supply by greating expanding and increasing its welfare payment system. Harry’s forecast needs some modification; run away inflation ending in a deflationary collapse called the mother of all depressions. Some food for thought for Harry; what will happen to bank deposits as the rumor about Bank Bail Ins becomes public knowledge? You can be sure some of that money will go into the stock market and some will chase goods and services and will feed inflation. Question for Harry; where would you put your money knowing a Bank Bail In was about to happen? Also, what happens to the banks balance sheets, when there is a run on the banks? This may cause the velocity of money to increase ,which is inflationary. You can be sure the Fed will provide the banking system with all the liquidity it needs, more funny money. Harry, please check the price of meats etc from 2008 to 2015, if that is not inflation, I do not what is. Harry, we agree how this is going to end, the difference is how we get there. Harry is a great interview as he makes you rethink your position, I did and it didn’t change. Greg, I appreciate the beauty of having guests with a wide variety of opinions and knowledge.
One exception; if the Federal Reserve shuts off liquidity to the Banks and Government,
Harry’s predictions will be right on the money!
Just remember folks, this is Harry Dent. He has been wrong much more than he has been right, and is looking at the world from an aged frame of mind. Take it all with a grain of salt.
Hi Greq:
I don’t what to believe. Some folks are saying gold and silver are going to go up and the dollar will be completely worthless, and Mr. Dent says the opposite in a crash. I guess in order to prepare, it’s best to have some gold/silver, cash, food/water, emergency supplies and just be prepared for just about anything. Then folks need to consider where they live in order to be in a region with less chaos due to all the mass hysteria. It’s so hard to do all this for the average person, but all one can do is try. The bible says in Ezekiel 7:19 that some day people will cast their silver in the streets, and gold will not deliver them. Ultimately due the character of humans, nothing is going to keep a person safe except for God’s grace and deliverance.
I agree with other posts here. HD didn’t mention China and the amount of gold they’re acquiring. I also have doubts about China’s so called failing economy. China is the biggest importer of BMWs, the people there pay cash for everything, no such thing as car loans etc. I can see US home values decreasing, but not because of Deflation like HD says, but because home values are still much too high, the opposite of silver which is so undervalued that mines can’t stay in business. HD sounds confident, but he’s been very wrong in his past predictions. I hope he didn’t scare away any gold/silver stackers. Those who stack are the smart ones and I wouldn’t call them ‘bugs’ at all.
Gregg.
I think the problem with some of these guy’s saying gold and silver will go down and we will have deflation is, if there is deflation and a new Ford F150 foes from $40,000 down to $20,000 in U.S. fiat dollars, and gold goes from $1200 to $600 in U.S. fiat. You have preserved your wealth. The dollar price does not matter as long as you preserve your purchase power. That’s what we want is purchase power rather than a particular number.
Doug C.
The “Foolish bride” in Africa are being judged-having been handed over to Shabab while the True Gov.’s Ressurect to establish free from corruption.
The Western Babylon Gov.’s are the ones to be judged while its “Wise bride of Christ” Resurrect for a Harvest.
In the short,stick with household stuff,speculate on PM’s,longTerm,hang out with your Prophetess Geraldine Fisher.She is a BOOM in YAHUVEH.
Best Spiritual Chapter before Sep29,2015 is Rev18.
Watch out for the blossoming seed of ISHMAEL.
I tend to agree with a lot of what was said, but I disagree on the result.
As a review, I went to the wiki page on the US Dollar Index (USDX); it is determined as a weighted mean of six other currencies: EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK & CHF. The Euro and Yen are in trouble and just those two currencies account for 70% of the USDX influence. I looked under the carpet and checked the corners, but gold is not a factor in determining the USDX. The Euro crashing due to Greek debt and issues in Ukraine (war), and Japan trying to dig their way out of a hole they are in due to previous digging are the big drivers.
For gold to go down someone needs to sell — Russia (10% debt/GDP ) and China (maybe not doing great, but…) are buyers, not sellers. Does GLD have any physical left to sell? How about those vaults in London (whose gold is that anyway?) — how much more gold is available to sell? IMO gold is going up from here.
There’s an axiom that states deflation precedes hyperinflation. So while Harry Dent may be correct in looking for deflation, hyperinflation may follow and it can turn in a heartbeat. The FED has historically fought deflation. At some point deflation will be obvious to even Janet Yellen and then watch for the next and continuing round of QE (to infinity). When they announce that, the US Dollar will no longer be viewed as a safe haven.
But all above is just my totally layman/amateur view and opinion. I have no credentials or economics degree to back up one thought.
Hi Greg, thanks for the interview, a clear view, but I don’t dare to hang on to currency. These times are unprecedented, as they pull quite some unexpected(/criminal) tricks out of the hat, which interfere with traditional expectations, or predictions. I am sure I couldn’t sleep with my reserves in currency. Fewer dollars chasing the same amount of goods; deflation. I don’t know what happens when a crash maybe happens this fall. Maybe they like some crash this fall, as they maybe need a reason for QE4, to prolong the game banks could borrow all they want at zero percent interest, to be convinced a lot of dollars will be wiped out, and that’s all to it, is against the feeling of it all. When he would be right, it would be a smart thing to be in currency, but I can’t see what mister Dent sees, I tried to wrap my mind around it, but I can’t see it. Dollars will be wiped out, gold years from now at 300/400 dollars. This scenario gives not an implosion of the system, but a cleansing, sounding like a normal currency system after that, high currency value, it doesn’t feel logical. Maybe I can’t wrap my mind around it, because my gut feeling is too much against it. Time will tell. Mister Dent seems to ignore the fact that the gold market is a manipulated one, which one day will end, then having currency gets you roasted, which risk I would not like to take in a million years. Mister Dent’s scenario towards 400 dollar gold seems a far too far long shot.
When a lot of currency/debt gets wiped out, the chance arises people lose confidence in the system, which leads to inflation in hard assets. Studying deflation in the past doesn’t fit completely in nowadays conditions. Deflation in a gold linked currency system gives a difference with the current system, and the condition its in. May the view of the founding fathers of America go viral one day. Expect the unexpected. May Love be the guiding star in your life.
Wim
The strange volatility we’ve been experiencing in the markets is occurring because there’s is a massive derivatives melt-down going on behind the scenes.
The Fed is engaging in an enormous reverse repo operation in order to prevent the global financial system from collapsing.
The ONLY REASON the Fed would need to inject massive amounts of Treasuries into the global banking system is because there’s an extreme shortage.
A massive derivatives accident requiring MASSIVE amounts of collateral has developed; there’s $250 billion in junk shale oil bonds and another $250 billion in energy industry loans. Lets say theres 5 times in derivatives. And these derivatives must have collateral. $2.5 trillion in collateral? Where’s that going to come from
Greece 350 billion Euros in debt that’s going to go TU soon. 5-10 X in derivatives. Does the ECB have that much in bonds to do their reverse repo?
Oil product will exceed storage capacity within 2 months or so. This will force prices down to $35 per bbl. The Saudis are flooding the market with cheap oil to kill the US and other country fracking industries. They are happy to hit Russia with this price damage. Theres no love lost there. China is their friend and loves low oil prices
Without enough collateral and derivatives by the trillions demanding satisfaction, there will be no place to turn for anyone in the banking business. Central banks will get killed in the process.
They will not go quietly… or alone. They will want to drag as many of us down with them as they can. Misery does, in fact, love company… and we WILL be miserable, if they have anything to say about it and, unfortunately, they do.
The shale-frack coup going on via Saudi auspices is definitely a big contributor to any possible derivatives shenanigans going on currently, and would seem paradoxical from a geo-political point of view.
1) In order to save the Dollar (WRC Status), the Ruble must be destroyed.
2) The only way to truly destroy the Ruble is the plunge the oil price (sanctions won’t work alone)
3) By killing the oil price, the US kills its only economic bubble that filled in where the housing bubble left off, which might kill the Dollar more quickly.
This would seem like a problem for for Washington and New York – a paradox in fact – but there’s always room for treason;
1) CIA confraternity (Bush family, Woolsey, etc…) gives the Saudis inside information of Derivatives contracts that will profit in a collapse of the oil price, so that their losses are filled back out in the off-shore zone.
2) When the US frackers and shale industry goes TU, this Saudi money is allowed to purchase the assets and rights at a nice ripe price, thus keeping them strapped to the Washington Consensus.
3) Russia, Venezuela, West Africa etc… all go TU first.
4) China sits pretty a little longer with cheaper oil, and the US and Saudis try to bring them on board with sweeteners to draw them away from Russia (which of course, won’t work in the long term as the Chinese are in the position to play both sides for advantage … and they will).
5) Central Bank Zombienomics, and TBTF daisy-chains keep the number matrix looking semi-normal.
All this talk about Saudis wanting to kill North American fracking and shale industry is only partially true, because Washington is quite happy to help them out and offer them the lions share of the carcass as long as they help kill the Russian economy. What does Washington care who owns these companies or not? Selling all the ports to the Chinese, and all energy assets to the Saudis, whilst importing limitless cheap labor from Mexico is all part of the Third-world job being done on the US Republic.
Selling out is the name of the game, as long as the western off-shore clique (.001%) gets to draft the new rules. Also this leads to consolidation in the oil industry in the U$A,
which makes it easier for the poly-ticks to steer the few big oil companies, rather than
lots of smaller ones. Bigger Donations, too… for the parties
WE ARE IN THE RACE FOR A NEW WORLD DISORDER ~ CAN YOU HEAR THE CRY FOR, , , , “PEACE AND SECURITY?.” YOU WILL AND WHEN YOU GET IT, WATCH OUT!
The Day of the Lord
…2For you yourselves know full well that the day of the Lord will come just like a thief in the night. 3While they are saying, “Peace and safety!” then destruction will come upon them suddenly like labor pains upon a woman with child, and they will not escape. 4But you, brethren, are not in darkness, that the day would overtake you like a thief; ◄ 1 Thessalonians 5: 2 ~ 4 ► Walk the Sunnyside of the street with, USAWatchdog!
Interesting analysis SlaveWillBe. Please do some more in the future.
Greg
Greg,
People should state when they are cutting and pasting comments from other sites. SWB’s comment is not their own work. That is called plagiarism……all too easy to steal someone else’s thoughts and post them as your own. The entire comment was cut from an article and several bloggers comments on the same article.
Go here to see the full transcript and the bloggers comments:
http://www.silverdoctors.com/reverse-repos-go-parabolic-liquidity-shock-derivatives-melt-down-has-begun/
SIG,
I hope people will give credit where it is due. That makes you stronger not weaker in my book. Thank you for pointing this out.
Greg
Greg,
Sure no problem.
Interesting part of that commentary however, was that the IMF are now concerned about “LIQUIDITY” too……. this is after Mark Carney stated the term “Liquidity Illusion ” in his G20 address to finance ministers and CB Governors….back in Feb 15.
The IMF is the mouthpiece of the Elites and this now is in the MSM. Consider that a DIRE WARNING of what is about to unfold.
SIG,
This simply can’t go on for years to come. I think the IMF is laying the ground work for a “reset” as Lagarde has been warning. This cannot be good for the USD or common people in the world.
Greg
Greg, I give credit to SIG, I think he linked it! Greg I admit i’m just a dummy and don’t know anything, but I know the truth when I see it and I just want to help spread the word!
SlaveWillBe,
You are good. It’s an honest mistake and if that is the worst thing you do I think you will be OK. Thank you for your comments.
Greg
Great analysis, Slavewillbe! I liked how you linked that quote from 1 Thessalonians with the data. Yes, that cry for peace and security is the expected Hegelian “reaction” to the created problems, paving the way for acceptance of the “solution,” which is where the elites want us to go.
SWB,
Jim Willie believes, and says he has evidence that the Russians are also flooding market with cheap oil exports. That they can go very low in price per barrel for production. He says that the Saudis and Russians are ” soft allies”. Remember who the Saudis said “screwed” them… the U.S.. BRICS will reign supreme China-Russo alliance will not be cracked.
US fracking industry will be devastated and other oil producing nations will rise to the occasion. Remember that China and Russia signed long term oil deal for many years to come.
Russians keep hoodwinking us every step of the way.
USA has many many enemies out there now, they are just quiet about it
I totally concur with your thoughts WD.
Washington’s moronic behavior is becoming painfully obvious to the BRICS and the world at large.
This bludgeon wielding bully is about to be called out.
He will have few sympathizers.
Cheers
Col
There is no doubt that there will be a major financial crises. Whether it results in deflation or inflation matters not. People will lose confidence in the current system and turn to PMs. The only question is which people will embrace it. Inflation will cause the general population to seek PMs and, if my sources are correct, only 2% of the population own PMs. If that only increases to 4%, the demand and scarcity will drive the price much higher. Should we have deflation and PMs drop to levels suggested by Mr Dent the general population will have no interest in PMs. However the wealthy, central banks, etc will see this as a buying opportunity of a lifetime and drive the price levels back up resulting in a bull market that will attract those in the general population that have any remaining means to purchase PMs. In the end it is all about human nature. Some will win and some (most) will lose.
Steve
As a past reader of Dents books, and observer of his “real” track record, lets just say I wont be running out buying US dollars anytime soon. Does anyone think the Fed is just going to let long term deflation happen like that ? Always good to see all sides of the argument though. Thanks Greg for your continued effort to bring us diversity…take what you like, and leave what you don’t like !! ~ Bless
To further clarify my earlier comment…I do believe it is good to have (some) cash on hand, of course !! But I certainly will not be hawking my gold and silver stash for US dollars LOL !
– Derek
Dent fails to equate gold with money. Gold has been money for thousands of years. And suddenly it will no longer be used in trade so get some liquor mini bottles? Dent treats gold as just another commodity. And would you put your wealth in paper dollars as Dent suggests? Dollars have declined in value ever since the creation of the fed.
Mr. Dent is using the commoners definition of deflation in his analysis. That is that deflation is the lowering of prices. It is not. Deflation is the abrogation of debt. This is key to understanding his misdirection as to the future of prices. Money has been created and then lent to people, governments and corporations. They have spent it. It is in the system and will not be “destroyed”. Someone will always have them, even your money spent on equities. Whomever you paid the money to, to buy your stocks, someone has those dollars, even if the “value” of your stocks plunge. What will be destroyed is bank debt, the promise to repay the spent, created dollars. Does anyone think the banking cartel, which puts its members interests above all else, is not going to print the money to monetize the debt of its hurting bank members when, and if, push comes to shove — again? That money printing will be huge, because as Dent himself says correctly, private debt greatly out-sizes government “cash flow” debt (our current $18 trillion + of “official” debt). However, our GAAP (Social Security, Medicare, government pensions, etc.) governmental debt obligation is far in excess of $200 trillion. Monetizing those obligations when the economy slows greatly, due to an equity bubble value collapse, will dwarf the number of dollars printed and used to cover any bank “private debt” collapse. This is what the Chinese and others seem to be hedging against. History – the one of fiat currency – supports this scenario, sooner or later.
I can’t see any collapse coming. My 401K is doing great! My monthly gas bill for my SUV is quite reasonable. The Dow is above 18,000; I put a good chunk of change into the Dow below 9,000 about 7 years ago. It’s all good. A collapse this Fall? Highly unlikely.
I’ll check in with y’all in November after my trip to Europe.
I suppose a lot of people said the same thing early 2008.
Looks like the Greek bank deposits may be gone. Wow!
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/grexit-step-1-tsipras-seizes-all-public-sector-cash-more-capital-controls-coming/
I do not understand how all the money will disappear, which is Dent’s foundation to support the deflation scenario. How can the printed money disappear? Haven’t they already been created/printed and put into the circulation or given to banks? Did Dent mean that there will be a massive default of private debts, and the real assets will be re-possessed/foreclosed, and Fed will take those paper dollars that associated with those debts out of the circulation? I guess as a ordinary person, I do not understand how money works. Could someone educate me on this?
Now I can see why this guy got thumbs down. He is so incredibly wrong!
The MSM media doesn’t have the gonads to report this. The U.S. sending troops in to Ukraine.
http://www.voanews.com/content/ap-us-and-ukraine-start-military-training-defying-russian-fury/2726656.html
What’s the Russian response? How about building proxy armies less than 10 miles away from El Paso with ISIS and members of the Mexican drug cartel? Could this be the reason for Jade Helm 15? Hmmm.
Jerry,
Interesting, I have read some articles about Russians arming Mexican cartel as well as US patriots and secessionist groups in those states.
As a veteran I cant understand the stupidity for trying to pick a fight with the Russians, just stupid. Those National Guardsmen will be wiped out if push comes to shove. How stupid!
I am referring to the Guardsmen sent to the Ukraine.
Jerry,
The writing is on the wall. What happened in Croatia, in the Balkan’s, European war, in the breakup of the former Yugoslavia, is the green light for Ukraine? Like Ukraine Has Russians, part of Croatia had Serbs, before the Pilgrims settled North America. The ethnic Serbs were forcibly removed by Croatia with the support and backing of the US. during the Yugoslav breakup of . Why now is Ukraine any different with a large swath occupied by ethnic Russian Ukrainians, there since millennia, that we want out! The difference is Russia proper, the no. 2, “super power,” with nuclear weapons, unlike little Serbia, will the US. initiate a sneak attack, is it the only way to proceed successfully to ethnically cleanse the Russians from eastern Ukraine as they did the Serbs from the Karjina region of Croatia? The playbook then seems to be the only playbook now, only this time the US. has to bet the farm, our spreads and homes and way of life.
The only person, or person’s, whichever way you chose to believe, between possible nuclear war and possible, annilation, Jesus Christ or Barrack Obama? Christ has to hold back the four winds of the Apocalypse, Obama the neocons. Pray for one, pray for both, but please, pray for peace!
What was done and now the playbook for Ukraine?
from Emperor’s Clothes; http://www.tenc.net
The Invasion of Serbian Krajina
by Greg Elich
[Mr. Elich is a freelance scholar who has written extensively about Yugoslavia.]
In early August 1995, the Croatian invasion of Serbian Krajina precipitated the worst refugee crisis of the Yugoslav civil war. Within days, more than two hundred thousand Serbs, virtually the entire population of Krajina, fled their homes, and 14,000 Serbian civilians lost their lives. According to a UN official “Almost the only people remaining were the dead and the dying.” The Clinton administration’s support for the invasion was an important factor in creating this nightmare.
“They decided the fate of thousands, are they deciding ours now?”
The previous month, Secretary of State Warren Christopher and German Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel met with Croatian diplomat Miomir Zuzul in London. During this meeting, Christopher gave his approval for Croatian military action against Serbs in Bosnia and Krajina. Two days later, the U.S. ambassador to Croatia, Peter Galbraith, also approved Croatia’s invasion plan. Stipe Mesic, a prominent Croatian politician, stated that Croatian President Franjo Tudjman “received the go-ahead from the United States. Tudjman can do only what the Americans allow him to do. Krajina is the reward for having accepted, under Washington’s pressure, the federation between Croats and Muslims in Bosnia.” Croatian assembly deputy Mate Mestrovic also claimed that the “United States gave us the green light to do whatever had to be done.” Learn what had to be done, more below:
http://www.emperors-clothes.com/articles/elich/krajina.html
Riddle of Serb exodus from Krajina
Sarah Helm in Zagreb warns that the fate of 150,000 people driven into exile may be as bitterly debated as that of the Palestinians after Israel’s foundation in 1948
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/riddle-of-serb-exodus-from-krajina-1598339.html
Who’s the Propagandist?
https://www.popularresistance.org/whos-the-propagandist-us-state-department-or-rt/
Hi Greg,
I enjoyed listening to your guest and reading the comments.
I am writing from Cape Town, South Africa. What I have gleened from this interview is that people’s perceptions of money, debt and value is based on their personal beliefs and not what is going on. A simple question to ponder is What is a Dollar or in South Africa, a Rand?
It is firstly a currency, which like a ruler, is a unit of account. Secondly, by law it is decreed that a piece of paper made from special paper with numbers printed on it can be used as legal tender to pay debts, numbered in that unit of account. The question of the value of the currency is an other aspect. Under the Bretton Woods Agreement during the 1960’s 1 Rand was valued at US$1.40 or 1.24414 grams of fine gold. The Rand Dollar exchange rate remained fixed up to December 1971, but the current exchange rate is about R12.13 for 1 US$ and R580.00 for 1 gram of gold.
Obligations or debts arise by virtue of the operation of law or the legal system that is in place at a specific place and point in time. This is a very dynamic system and is subject to constant change. This system of thinking was based on the Roman System of Law, where obligations arose by means of contract or delict (tort) or other means. Please take note it is a system of thinking which means that a group of people must share a common belief in order for that system it to function.
The same principles applies to the way laws (rules) are changed and how the monetary system operates as politics and people determine how things are to be done.
In South Africa there are laws in place which govern credit creation, banking, the Reserve Bank Act, which created the Reserve Bank of South Africa (Similar to the FED and the first Central Bank in Africa) debt enforcement and also prescription of debts. Some contractual debts prescribe after 3 years, the obligations may still exist, but by law, if enforced in a court of law, a creditor might find that the court will not come to its rescue due to the delay pursuing the claim. In terms of South African common law there is a limit to the amount of interest that can accrue on an obligation as well, which was confrimed by the South African Constitutional Court in a recent decision.
It is quite possible for the financial system to crash if people’s trust in the current international monetary system and the rule of law is betrayed.
Playboy-posing veteran arrested in flag scuffle; sets off debate over everything
The Washington Post
Michael E. Miller
4 hrs a
Old glory. New controversy.
Police in Georgia arrested a U.S. veteran on Friday after she took an American flag away from students who were trampling it. Michelle Manhart, a former Air Force staff sergeant who left the military after posing nude for Playboy, took the flag from a group of African-American students at Valdosta State University who were demonstrating against racism. Manhart, who is white, was handcuffed but has not been charged with a crime.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/playboy-posing-veteran-arrested-in-flag-scuffle-sets-off-debate-over-everything/ar-AAbn0Hd?ocid=U305DHP
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1BUEYtzuvU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyLXQ3wruJI
Gert. One of her photos show her nude with the flag draped touching the ground. I think she is a attention grabber nothing more.
Astonished, dont think we are not listening. My Congressman says they are working on changing that problem. But you can never trust the system when it has fallen this far. This guy needs to look in mirror or check his friendenemys list. He told on himself or was ratted out and they came for his stash because they knew it was their.
Sounds like Harry is on the payroll of the Federal Reserve. How
anyone can argue that a piece of colored paper which is created
by the trillions out of thin air is going to be more valuable than
some of the rarest metals on earth is beyond my comprehension.
That argument is specious and runs counter to the law of supply
and demand.
I think Harry is half right. We are in a deflationary period right now. Geez I’m now paying $2.00 for the same jar of coffee that 20 years ago I’d be lucky to get for anything under $5.00. As for the stock market it will crash in the fall of 2016 as I know bull markets last on average about 7 years. Google Anthony Caldaro he’s my go to expert on stocks.
He can predict stock market moves almost to the point.
Funny,
I am ping $6.00 for cheese that use to cost $4.00…please tell me where you shop?
How does all that money vanish from the system and create deflation? Is not the only way the bank created debt based currency disappears is by the debt being paid.
This he did not explain.
I have the same question. My guess is this: he thinks that there will be massive default on the private debts, thus debts disappear by defaulting instead of by paying off, and the assets are foreclosed and re-possessed by the debtors.
I think Harry is half right. We are in a deflationary period right now. Geez I’m now paying $2.00 for the same jar of coffee that 20 years ago I’d be lucky to get for anything under $5.00. As for the stock market, it will crash in the fall of 2016 as I know bull markets last on average about 7 years. That’s where all the bail out money went-not into the economy. Google Anthony Caldaro he’s my go to expert on stocks. He can predict stock market moves almost to the point.
As for war I think were seeing history repeat itself just like the events prior to WW2 , so technically I think were in WW3. How Do you cure deflation – you start a major war and create inflation. So I think were going to see WW3 late next year or at most soon after Jeb Bush becomes President. (we all know how the Bushs’ love wars) That should drive up the price of any hard assets or commodities. I’ll keep my faith in gold and silver coins and not paper dollars. At least I’ll have something to barter with instead of a wheel barrow full of worthless paper. Is biblical prophecy happening right before our very eyes? I certainly hope so.
Best of luck to us all
All economic commentators agree on one thing: that interest rates have never been this low in 500 years. The fed will be vilified once the bubble does burst. There have been trillions of dollars poorly invested over the past six years. We have fallen behind many other countries and will not be able to recover as quickly as we would have in 2010. Eric Janzen wrote elegantly about this in his book Post Catastrophe Economy. Health care is one good example. Our health system should have moved in different direction, but we simply magnified all the problems with Obama care. This will have to be dismantled, but it will take years.
In addition to the suspicious Wal-Mart closings, Target closed all of its 133 stores in Canada yesterday (see https://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2015/04/20/heads-up-133-target-stores-close-in-canada-operation-maple-resolve-begins/), right after Maple Caravan (see http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?nid=951899) transported the vehicles necessary to carry out Maple Resolve, a joint exercise with 4,500 troops from Canada, the US, and the UK which began today. (see http://josephpedepoetry.blogspot.com/2015/04/operation-maple-resolve.html). Toronto has scheduled a 4-day exercise for a “climate disaster” that will begin one day before Jade Helm, on July 14, 2015 (see http://1776channel.com/2015/04/climate-disaster-torontos-exercise-sunken-treasure-coincides-with-jade-helm-15/). I find it interesting that Blackwater is involved in Operation Maple Resolve.
SOMEBODY is getting ready for SOMETHING! I said that I expected things to accelerate after April 16-17, and so far, it appears I was right.
Greg and WD’s,
Breaking news….
Capital Controls implemented in Greece…..riots in the streets…..The ECB wants its money back and it will steal it from depositors accounts. James Turk hit the bullseye on this one.
This from Zero Hedge….http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-20/stunned-greeks-react-initial-capital-controls-and-decree-confiscate-reserves-and-the
Can we say Russia has financial assistance at the ready and an alliance has formed for the Gas pipeline to run through Turkey/Greece.
Also interesting to note that Greece may be contemplating to allow Russia to base its warships in Greek ports. (I made that point back in February).
I agree with many others here who say that Dent’s biggest fault (and why he will be proven to be wrong), is that he is looking at this from an American perspective. America is becoming less and less relevant. He equates gold prices with dollar prices. He completely ignores the rest of the world. They are going to have a huge say and stake in the future price of gold. They (China, BRICS, AIIB) will have much more of an impact on where gold is going then the US dollar.
And seriously $700 for an ounce of gold. No one would be able to find an ounce at that price. It will be sucked up faster than a raindrop in California.
The Fed will never allow “real” deflation. The debt would skyrocket and the government would not even be able to pay the interest on the national debt. They will get inflation going if they have to go door to door handing out bundles of paper money.
There are two basic assumptions that make me suspect of an analyst if they fail To acknowledge. One is that the markets are rigged, especially PMs. The other they fail to believe that the dollar will be abandoned because it is toxic and a corrupt fiat. Without acknowledging these two items, your outlook is flawed.
Sorry but Mr Dent is totally delusional !
His thesis makes absolutely no sense to me and I am a part time economic Hack.
If Gold is totally useless why the hell would China spend years and $b”s to ensure that they are the key market players.
Another Point that Mr Dent has missed is that the Wolrd is “full” of US dollars!! thanks to QE to infinity, there is so many dollars in fact that when the time comes it will be baseless and useless, as pointed out above it would be better to hold potatoes and water than the US $.
Oh and also what happens when QE is started again? Hummm? as I said I’m a economic Hack!
Hi Greg,
This is an excellent counterpoint article produced today by Andy Hoffman that rebukes most of what Harry Dent has said in your interview. Here it is: http://blog.milesfranklin.com/the-deflation-boogeyman
I just found another one out today by another guest you have on by the name of Bill Holter. This one is appropriately called “dangerously dented logic” LOL! Here it is:
http://blog.milesfranklin.com/dangerously-dented-logic
The rationale has to be that NO ONE IS 100% CORRECT even though they may give you the impression they are. Good to see some serious discussion about this enormous issue. What I’ve learnt is that over time….you need to be able to separate the Wheat from the Chaff and form your own opinion. That takes time and a lot of dedicated hard work. There is no free lunch in this world. No one should expect it either.
I don’t know who to believe about pm. Wha I do know is that a first priority should be food storage and home production. Use it and produce it on a continuing basis and you will save money and you will be more prepared for whatever happens. I believe during or after wwii people traded all sorts of “valuable” stuff for food. I just installed two queen bees into two hive splits today!
JP Morgan is stock piling silver in the millions of ounces. Why?http://www.silverdoctors.com/why-is-this-bank-stockpiling-silver-like-theres-no-tomorrow/#more-52694
Worth reading: milesfranklin.com April 20 Newsletter
“Harry Dent just released a special report on gold. His premise is that a combination of a strong dollar and deflation will cause gold to plunge to $700 or lower. I asked Bill Holter and Andy Hoffman to discuss his report and offer our view of why Mr. Dent is wrong. I have read both of their rebuttals and they are fair, based on facts, not supposition. After you read their articles, see whose position you think is correct, Dent’s or ours. In my humble opinion, this is very one-sided. One position is right and the other is wrong. You don’t want to be on the wrong side of this topic.
I would like to add my two cents worth here. Jim Sinclair says that gold does not need inflation to appreciate. The coming bull market will see a currency-induced inflation, not a demand-based inflation. Dent may be correct about deflation, but it will not negatively affect the price of gold. As Roy Jastram points out, during periods of major deflation, the operational value of gold increases. (Read about Jastram in Jim Sinclair’s section, below)
I addition, I strongly suggest you read and reread Bill Holter’s piece today on Derivatives. It may be the best and most important piece he has written.
David
Greg, make sure you bring Harry back when gold hits $2000. Stagflation will be the problem not deflation. I think this is what Martin Armstrong is predicting.
Good interview. When people loose their fantasies…..I think it will be exceptionally violent. A lot of dead beats, will not like it one bit. No, I think this will be game over as we know it.
Mr. Dent does make some valid points. I never want to become so rigid in my thinking that I refuse to listen to other opinions. I appreciate you having him on your site.
I will listen to him again
Thanks
http://blog.milesfranklin.com/dangerously-dented-logic
Harry Dent, a Harvard graduate. Nuff said.
Hmmmm, lots of discussion.
The one thing not discussed is bank failures due to this level of deflation. Hyperinflation comes from an attempt to save the banks from a deflationary depression. Without actually saying so Mr. Dent maintains the FED will not try to save the banks, and I have a hard time with that one. On the other hand I have no problem with his prediction of $250 gold as that is a derivative (phoney) POG with perhaps only 1% deliverable on any contract buy from the COMEX. Silver, incidentally, would likely go back to $5 to $6 for the same reason. But the price of the actual metal will be many times these amounts. As a gold bug, does that mean I do not understand deflation? Deflation takes down the financial system and that was not what I was hearing in this interview. And rates will rise too – and that creates a derivative crisis. However, I did not hear Mr. Dent mention a delivery default risk for gold and silver, and that implies he is not as knowledgeable as he seems and does what so many paper guys do – talk about commodities as paper things. Beware.
As a Canadian with a declining dollar against the US one, we will see a rising gold price – as we have these past six months. Will gold fall in this deflation faster than the CAD does against the USD? Remember that gold is a currency too and so far it has performed against a CAD decline. However, if one is an American one is caught in the middle of all this.
And the last point about geopolitical risks gives me reason for confidence that my world view is more correct. Mr. Dent states that there is not much of a case for war, but I watch Washington pushing very strongly for a war with Russia. These are factors that folks like Rikards does deal with….Perhaps Washington is only looking for a bubble in its arms industry?
I rest my case.
Thanks for listening.
Galearis
Greg, I like that he makes me think this stuff through.
Things to consider from this discussion.
1. Money is mostly just electronic data today. Harry was saying to hold real dollars. Data can be deflated by a computer key stroke. You can be robbed of data money the same.
2. If you have value items or money, camoflague, bury and OPSEC are required.
3. You have to wonder about the police, when their families end up treated the same way, and they will. Their parents will be swatted, or they will hit a freind of the Sheriff in the next county, state, think about it!
For travel , maybe travlers checks will come back:)
4. We really should think about holding an emergency stash in another country. Not ones whole loaf of bread just covering the odds.
5. Debt. Choices. Own your roof!!! Minimize debt and be able to give up what you owe debt for. This is no guarantee of salvaging anything just playing the odds.
6. Deflation….deflation hurts and is real. I hate to admit it but after making good moves on Real Estate before 2007, I was caught in a weak moment and bought a property worst deal ever. In 2007 It deflated 90%, faster than a mill stone falls. Deflation may be eratic but it can happen while other things continue to go up like food and rent.
Greg,
I love your site and appreciate your courteous professionalism. However, Harry Dent really needs to have his feet held to the fire.
Does anyone remember his prediction in 2004, of The Dow at 40,000 and Nasdaq at 20,000 by the year 2009? What happened there Harry? Whoops?
That’s in 5 years.
He talks with passion on subjects he appears to have little grasp of. He reminds me more of “Baghdad Bob” who entertained us in 2002.
If anyone follows this guys advice, good luck!
I hope everybody read the traffic Cops comment above. “It just isnt normal” Not Normal is protected in the US Cnstitution. Some people have been luckier than others and the amount of money doesn’t matter one whit. If a person, not normal believes the US fiat is going to zero and cashes in his whole retirement and maybe his grandfathers too to buy silver, he is not normal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!? Well that will catch a lot of people now adays. I ask Traffic. Do you happily think that your retirement is safe??? Is that normal? LOL!!!! Not to me! Think about it. Who is going to pay? 94 Million out of work and the nonworking government paid numbers rising everyday. Five million new illegals on our backs now and more coming. Traffic you are going to pay them too. They will need your retirement when you have served your purpose to the elites.
Coalburner,
My gut is this is not really a Cop at all. He’s here to stir the pot and get people worked up.
Greg
If you want to know where its all headed, this is a unknown indicator by most, just check it out – Icahn Enterprises, L.P. (IEP) maximum chart
Dent is right, there are some high deflationary pressures out there. Total opposite of the propaganda out there, QE and zero/negative interest rates may be deflationary forces for the economy. With zero/negative interest rates, banks will not want to lend to businesses because there’s no profit in it, therefore it’s deflationary since fractional reserve lending is a primary vehicle for currency creation. Banks (and savers) might do better investing in stocks than lending. QE is a bid by central banks (out of thin air) for government bonds which decreases the bond yield, exacerbating the negative interest rate environment. True, there is money created with QE but this currency is disbursed by the government at a somewhat controlled pace and is small compared to the impact of fractional reserve lending by commercial banks. The Fed owns trillions of IOU’s as well due to QE, but this is not circulating currency and not inflationary.
They say that negative rates will force savers to spend, but do we really have much savings to begin with? Or are we as a society pretty much broke? I say the later. As deflation proceeds, there are business closures etc. and less businesses and households able to or willing to spend and borrow. Government spending will be the only game in town for income and spending. Tax revenue from business will decrease at the same time ironically. More QE will be needed. In a deflationary environment, the dollar will be strong and therefore silver and gold will be relatively weaker.
Will this go into perpetuity? Perhaps a long time. As long as it takes until the average citizen is ground to a pulp and dependent on a government handout in Social Fascist States. Here’s another analogy to think about: you play Monopoly (the board game) with your family and one person (who happens to be the banker that stole some monopoly money and a get out of jail free card) wins the game. He owns almost all of the real estate on the board and has all the cash and now you have $10 and a Baltic Ave. What happens at that point? Personally, I would just stop playing the game at that point. Our economy is getting to that point also. However, there doesn’t seem to be a way to quit the game. Or…. is there? Maybe that’s where silver and gold play into this mess? They’re already talking about gold backed SDR and yuan. Emerging markets with loans denominated in dollars are going bust because of the deflationary forces. They need off this train-wreck. BRICS needs off this trainwreck. If the world de-dollarizes, what will happen to the trillions at the Fed? They won the game, now what about all their monopoly money? Nobody wants it anymore. And now the Fed doesn’t want it anymore. It can just disappear in a “poof” or maybe the Fed will try to recover some value from it and dump it somehow and you will see a hyperinflationary scenario. I don’t have the answers and I’m really trying to wrap my head around this mess. Keep the great interviews coming. Thanks.
RP,
Good comment.
Agreed that there are tremendous “deflationary forces” present in the globe and the CB’s have even admitted this (along with the IMF).
Its also true that traditional credit expansion is almost non-existent….what we do see although is fractional credit being exerted through DERIVATIVES ….to witness Stock Markets, Bonds (Interest rates). That is the only game in town as traditional fractional reserve banking is dying. In fact, it is imperative, to keep the cycle working in perpetuity but to also offset the shortfall of an ever increasing demand for Collateral. Note the ratio of Derivatives to Capital Base of the six TBTF Banks. Its preposterous that they still operate.
The QE is actually inflationary ….but you must look to paper assets to find the tell-tale. Stocks and Bonds do not achieve price appreciation in the manner in which we have witnessed (given the state of the global economy) without inflation. Fundamentals do not support either. Key metrics show absurd and unsustainable price levels.
The biggest issue (which you did hit on) is that assets and businesses work on a given yield or return on capital. Investment is made based on a number of assumptions and capital is deployed accordingly. When the model is broken…an adjustment to the value of the capital is required. That means asset / capital destruction. That is the unintended consequence of QE and ZIRP.
The rest of your comment is close to the mark. Oppression and Repression all lead to more fascist control and dependence on BIGGER Government. The “Great Levelling” is upon us.
Best
SIG 😉
The expert that knows it all usually doesn’t. He is merely trying to convince himself and others that he does. As the saying goes “A legend in his own mind.”
Greg are you going to change the format for a celebrity deathmatch Harry Dent V Bill Holter?
Bill is well up for it going by below
http://blog.milesfranklin.com/dangerously-dented-logic
I think there are such massive holes in Harry Dent’s analysis that this wouldn’t be pretty. Id be very surprised if Harry Dent agreed to it.
I have made way for Mr. Holter to come on next week. It will be instructive and interesting.
Greg
NEWSFLASH!
ATTN. Fellow WD bloggers.
Guess what. Now we are being likened to ISIS terrorists by a congressional hearing.
Remarks by none other than Liz Wahl and “We came we saw we killed chuckle chuckle Hillary” clearly substantiate this claim.
I quote from “expert” MS Wahl..
“the web had become a beacon of disinformation, false theories, people that are just trying to make a name for themselves, bloggers or whatever, that have absolutely no accountability for the truth, that are able to rile up a mass amount of people online.”
Another quote from this revealing hearing;
‘Peter Pomerantsev, of the London-based Legatum Institute, followed up by claiming that conspiracy theories were no longer “fringe” and were now driving the success of Jean-Marie Le Pen in France, before lamenting the fact that conspiracy theories were challenging the “global order” and threatening to undermine global institutions.’
Personally I’m with Noam Chomsky view on this one when he said recently;
“The idea that there should be a network reaching people, which does not repeat the US propaganda system, is intolerable” to the US establishment.
For the whole sad story here is the link;
http://www.prisonplanet.com/bloggers-compared-to-isis-during-congressional-hearing.html
Cheers
Col
Col,
Like that post. 😉
Esp…. Peter Pomerantsev’s ” conspiracy theories were challenging the “global order” and threatening to undermine global institutions”…..that’s almost correct. He should have said Conspiracy FACTS were challenging the PTB. It is the Global Institutions (aka Global Elite/Order) that are responsible for creating the falsification across the spectrum by conspiring to unseat sovereign order, create instability, defraud the masses, manipulate and repress and use the power of propaganda to persuade. They are the ones who are deliberate in their actions and therefore conspiring to deceive with their secret agendas. We the “BLOGGERS” are here to make sure they are held accountable…and we will achieve that by exposing who THEY are and what they do.
Desperate acts of a Desperate Government (Hidden or otherwise) …..is what we are seeing.
Harry Dents comments are always interesting. His comment about holding dollars I don’t agree with. The Fed and US Treasury are going to go into massive money printing when the dollar collapses to support their political constituencies that start going belly up. Democrats will need lots of well paid police to man the machine guns to use on the majority segment of the population. Mugabe showed how to do it,
Mr. Dent has one thing going for him. I don’t believe it but for such a situation I should take heed.
He thinks the dollar is not going to die. That’s as simple as it is. I don’t either. It’s quite far off since people writ large are so complacent.
This is why you diversify. Everyone with anything loses in a deflationary collapse, whatever you do should it come to pass, hopefully you only lose half or a quarter if you are positioned correctly and a bit lucky. In real terms after the dust settles, you will have magnitudes more than your fellows. (not that that is a respectful perspective if you’re not willing to help those around you)
Those with small and secure amounts !and! connections are actually the winners. There is no short selling mass deflation without still losing your shirt eventually.
Those on the inside will have their positions, sure, but if they get their way it will be only a matter of time before they hang. They’ve done this before and people have hung before. This time the likes of Soros or Rothchild won’t get away with short selling into infinite wealth. It will go too fast. They will have to live in a mercenary armed basement until they expire unless humanity is of such idiocy that it cannot, not won’t, but cannot hear reason. They absolutely will refuse for a time but time has a mystery of its own.
I hope they know, they’re destroying their world all the same for generations. Their children will suffer more than they and their children’s children worse. Those who will inhabit this planet won’t be what they assume or predict.
They will be those who survive with the knowledge, preparation and adept forethought. Those who will stomp them from above their own self constructed graves.
The only way they can win is scorched earth in its entirety. That is scary because an animal in a corner will destroy itself with irony to survive. This isn’t just doubly.
Not even I am ready for that but I sincerely accept the possibility of such monstrous hubris to try.
If what Mr Dent says is true, chaos isn’t even close to strong enough a word. Hyperinflation would be peaceful and orderly by comparison.
Re the comment about ‘short selling. At one time I use to see this as one of the ‘evils’ in the markets, along with the use of ‘margin’. They were avoided by China for this reason.
However, on deep reflection, I began to see the benefits to stability, and/or ‘control’ of the markets. Short selling, when permitted under strict control, has the ability of providing a ‘balance’ to both sides of the equation – one side pulls at the other.
When done under control, which can be achieved both by regulation, and by encouraging ‘mixed signals’ via media and other ‘influencing factors’, it can also help to divert ‘money flow’ into more of a stagnant pool, as it waits quietly until activated when there is need to open the channels at an opportune time when a more sound economic ‘timing’ demands.
This has been worked out by China which once frowned on the practice, but has recently introduced it, though avoiding the more less regulated, and controlled attitude that exists in the US – where even ‘naked ‘ short selling has been found to some degree.
Quick somebody tell the Chinese that they are wasting their money buying all this gold. We need to ask Mr dent , why? Or is more logical to pose the question why are they buying what do they know that we dont?
What seems to be forgotten is that gold is an economic tool. It was revalued against the dollar during the great depression. How much would it need to be revalued today to counteract a great depression? For sure the revaluation wont come from the USA but from China
Few people expect this, but it is coming and just had happened before you wont have time to react.
Thanks for another great interview with another interesting guest Greg.
Thank you BruceM.
Greg
Where all these forecasters make their mistake is, they are too well conditioned into seeing the world, in particular the financial world, as it has been for well over 200 hundred years when it has been controlled throughout most of history by the ‘ Financial Elite’ but operating from their adopted ‘ Anglo American’ rules of engagement’ .
That is a long-time, so it is understandable, to a point.
While Dent has spent much time studying economic cycles, they have all been mostly highly focused on those conditioned by ones pertaining to this ‘Anglo-American, period. Anything before that would have occurred during an even completely different set of ‘rules’ that were adapted to an even different style of society known as the ‘Agrarian’ , as opposed to the current post Industrial.
We are still in this latter, though at a more advance stage than at its inception, but now is being slowly (yet gathering pace) guided into one that will be dominated by those who follow a different ‘rule book.’ that stems from a totally different culture – an Asian one.
To understand this, we have to accept the logic of – ‘It is not what we do, in life, but the way that we do it’ that creates the difference. To have harmony, therefore, we have to play by the house rules.
Here is another piece of geopolitical logic which needs to be understood – The ‘Financial Elite’ have throughout their history found it convenient, as in often more prudent, to live under many roofs. Home, to them, as a consequence has become, ‘ wherever they hang their hat’.
Severe change, be it the weather, or economic circumstance, whatever, can be very disturbing, especially when it appears to act negatively to expectations, and desire. But Nature has provided the antidote, though few, except the Financial Elite, it seems, are able to accept. Simply, it is – observe the change, and ADAPT yourself to it!
Mr Dent talks much as so many do about ‘Bubbles’. Under the Anglo-American set of rules they have become an anticipated eventual outcome of the ‘boom and bust’ economic scenario. However, he may come unstuck in his prognosis this time.
I believe it was the Chinese who invented ‘balloons’ early in their ancient history. Up to now, it appears they have adopted the ‘balloon’ principle in place of ‘bubbles’.
The balloon has decided advantages over a bubble. Balloons, with care, can be inflated and deflated repeatedly, and at varying sizes and speeds. They can even be held to one’s requirements. In other words, they are very controllable. Bubbles are not.
If , and when there is need to deflate and it is well controlled, there is less negative impact on the people. China, because of its size that has to be governed , and its embedded Confucian principles, is very socially conscious of the need for stability, and will strive to preserve it at all cost.
This website keeps crashing when trying to view content on iPad or iPhone. Sometime the website works fine, many times it doesn’t.
Dollar dies then I guess we won’t pay $500 for the same phone which costs $60 in China!
LOL. What the rest of the world and even the wall-street money printers don’t get is the VALUE in America has nothing to do with the current paper currency. The VALUE is the American people and American way. Sure, 150M are being bought off to live another way; but, the real collapse will be them and their way of life once an alternative currency, which cannot be taxed as heavily by money printing, takes hold. Probably the near term is more wealth theft against us workers; but the long term may be a more stable store of value for our kids, than is the federal reserve paper.
The beginning of America’s downfall began when prayer and the bible were removed from schools despite our bill of rights’ promising religious freedom. Once the words of the bible were removed people don’t believe in nothing. They will believe ANYTHING. Not my quote. The country has deteriorated to the point I wish I could move. I’ve spent nearly a lifetime here and partook of the very best the country ever offered. We can plan our best and being prepared will go a long way, but without a repentence and return to the God of the ten commandments I don’t hold out much hope. Empires come and go and it was great for a long time. Once the honest laborer builds riches the opportunists begin to plunder.
Greg,
I have been reading the posts in this thread and am grateful for the intelligent discussion. My awareness of an impending crisis was awakened by Robert Kiyosaki and Harry Dent. I now feel an urgency to do something to try to protect my remaining assets. This is a difficult and controversial issue. But I’m thinking, we always have boom and bust. So if you follow that model then, “Look out! Bust!” I’ve never been a gold bug but I’m leaning toward that solution to a decline in the stock market. Much good content here but I’m surprised, however, that you tolerate biblical quotes or religious diatribes in your threads. They add nothing to the discussion as someone can pore through the bible to find a quote to support any position. People seem to think that linking a quote from the bible to their comment gives it credibility. I have to say it is at least distracting and at worst offensive. I was under the impression we were discussing economic viewpoints not religious ones.
Bri
Rent currently consumes 64 percent of my income; all I want to know is when will I have discretionary income? Harry has predicted a decline of 30-50 percent in housing values in my area – but when will I see it?
Terry,
When interest rate rise housing prices will fall. That is your trigger. You can expect to see a spike in defaults before that.
Greg
Why isn’t Harry Dent in jail for fraud? Stupid me listened to this guy in 2011 and pulled out a lot of money when he was doom and glooming the markets. 10,000 points later I kick myself everyday for lost growth. I can lose my own money without the “professional” help.