War Cycle-Europe Absolute Disaster Zone-Martin Armstrong
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release) Renowned analyst, Martin Armstrong contends the financial markets run in cycles, and “confidence will always outweigh reality.” Armstrong clarifies, “It’s basically what you believe. There have been all sorts of studies on fundamentals that say if interest rates go up, stocks go down. It is simply not true. The stock market has never peaked with interest rates twice in history. If you think you are going to make 25% in the market, you’ll pay 10% interest; but if you really think the market is only going to go up 10%, you won’t pay 10%. So, it’s always the difference between what you believe and reality.” Armstrong, who invented forecasting called the Economic Confidence Model, says, “Knowing how empires die is fundamental to forecasting the world economy.” Armstrong explains, “You have a lot of people talking about hyperinflation, and that’s not how empires actually die. That’s more or less the peripheral type economies like Germany was after WWI. The empires that have actually collapsed, such as Rome or Britain, you don’t see hyperinflation. What you do see is massive debt that just keeps going and going–exactly in the process we are at now. They are trying to sustain power. So then, what do they do? They get very aggressive with taxation and come after you.” What is Armstrong’s take on the current U.S. economy? Surprisingly, he says, “The major economy that we have is still strong underneath. It is still supporting the world economy. Europe is going down. You have all the emerging markets declining, such as Russia and China, etc. We are declining, but it is not as robust as it was before, and it should turn down by the end of next year. The primary thing holding up the U.S. right now is internal capital flows that are coming from everywhere. Part of that is geopolitical. A lot of it is real estate. The high end real estate is still booming. Why? You have a tremendous amount of capital from Europe and even China just trying to get off the grid. They are talking about seizing money in bank accounts. One of the number one questions I get all the time is where do I put my money? If the banks can just take whatever they want now, there will be bail-ins rather than bail-outs. People are afraid. What do you do with the cash? So, people are buying things like real estate and stocks, just trying to get money out of the banking system.” On the subject of so-called bail-ins coming to America, Armstrong says, “Everybody knows I advise some of the big institutions around, and I can tell you that they have told me directly that the Fed went to them and told them they will not be bailed out for proprietary trading. It will be only on deposits. That’s it. The Fed has been going around telling them, ‘hey, you better change your models.’ They don’t think it will be a flight to quality as it was before. You buy the long term (Treasuries) and that saves you. They don’t think that’s going to happen. It’s quite interesting. . . . It looks like the long term (Treasury bonds) is going to end up starting to rise. Eventually, people don’t trust government, and what happens then is they move from the public sector into the private sector. In some of your extreme cases, like Germany’s hyperinflation, everything went up–real estate, art, metals, whatever was tangible. What you are seeing today is the same kind of attitude, but not necessarily hyperinflation, but everything is going up dramatically.” On the subject of the U.S. collapsing, Armstrong says, “The core economy never collapses first. It’s the last thing to go. If the United States would collapse first, then all the other economies would have to collapse. It doesn’t work that way. It comes from the outside in. If the United States were to collapse first, the entire world would have to collapse.” On gold, Armstrong says, “Gold is still in a bear market. I think it will have to make one more new low. I think it will start to turn up around 2016. I don’t see it going down drastically lower. It is more a matter of timing. When are people going to really start questioning government? That’s when gold goes up. You’ll notice that gold went up aggressively up until 2011. People were worried about the economy going down and worried about government. Gold goes up when our Economic Confidence Model goes down, and it should be the period between 2016 and 2020 when it begins to rise.” On market manipulation in all the markets, Armstrong says, “Any manipulation cannot change the direction of the trend. You can go with the trend, increasing the volatility of it, but you can’t turn a bear market into a bull market. Governments try, but if everybody wants to sell, it’s just going to be gone. The confidence has to be there.” Global war and civil unrest is also in Armstrong’s forecast. His model shows a 300 year cycle is upon us. Armstrong predicts, “It turned up in 2014. The 300 year model is civil unrest. Going into it was the Occupy Wall Street, but that was peaceful. Next time the Occupy starts, you are going to see much more violence, as you are seeing Europe, but that will probably take place in the U.S. after 2016. In Europe, you are seeing unrest everywhere. . . . Europe seems to be absolutely crumbling. . . . It’s an absolute disaster zone everywhere you look.” Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong of ArmstrongEconomics.com. (There is much, much more in the video interview.) After the interview: Armstrong told me he recently gave a presentation called “The Cycles of War.” You can get a video preview by (clicking here.) The full presentation is $350. And here is another short post Armstrong recently wrote about the war cycle on ArmstrongEconomics.com. (Click here.)
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About the Author
Greg Hunter
Greg is the producer and creator of USAWatchdog.com. The site’s slogan is “analyzing the news to give you a clear picture of what’s really going on.” The site will keep an eye on the government, your financial interests and cut through the media spin. USAWatchdog.com is neither Democrat nor Republican, Liberal or Conservative. Before creating and producing the site, Greg spent nearly 9 years as a network and investigative correspondent. He worked for ABC News and Good Morning America for nearly 6 years. Most recently, Greg worked for CNN for shows such as Paula Zahn Now, American Morning and various CNN business shows.
Sounds like tangible assets are still the way to go for the ‘small’ guy. Tangible by meaning putting dollars into your needs such as 6 month food storage, debt reduction, silver or gold, cash, garden supplies, solar stuff, and anything else of value. Also, we still need to play the dollar game. I will cash in one more mutual fund and then I will be down to one and I will leave it alone, unless I panic of course.
Brilliant interview, Greg. Thnx. Your guest makes a good argument concerning the price of gold (e.g., when he compares the capital gains of gold vs. the S&P). However, I don’t think of gold as an investment. It is insurance (i.e., a wealth preservation vehicle … assuming that an individual has wealth to protect in the first place and assuming that the government doesn’t windfall tax all of your nominal profits). GLTA.
Greg,
With all do respect, Martin Armstrong is “Not all that”. I have followed his work since my collage days. On Oct 15th 2011, he told Eric King in an audio interview that “after a consolidation mode” gold would resume it’s uptrend and quickly reach 4000 dollars per ounce! That statement ruined many peoples lives Greg. He changes his economic outlook constantly, and people should be very skeptical.
Good point, Tim. None of these guys is right all of the time … none of them. I remember Jim Rogers shorting the 30 year treasuries via TBT a couple of times after 2008 and boy oh boy was he ever wrong … but at least he admitted it (the two times that bet went against him, anyway). I listened to what he said and took a small position in TBT, but then got closed out before he disclosed that he too closed out his trade (the first time). I didn’t follow his advice the second time. I don’t think these guys ruin anybody’s lives. You have to do your own due diligence. That’s life. GLTA. Having said that, gold is currently in a bear market … like it or not.
Thanks, Greg, for bringing Mr. Armstrong to your readers/listeners, of which I am one. I went back and listened to that interview Tim referred to, which was on October 2, 2011, by the way, the only interview he gave KWN that month, and the statement you refer to is NOT something he said: link posted below:
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/10/2_Martin_Armstrong.html
I have been following Mr. Armstrong’s writings for the last several years, including when he was in prison for contempt of court on trumped-up charges. I also went to his World Economic Conference in Philadelphia in March, as did 300 others from around the world. He said the same thing in 2011 as he is now about gold: that it would hit its peak in 2016 to 2020 after confidence in government is lost. Mr. Armstrong’s website is a wealth of information, most of it free. He has nothing to sell and offers no opinions, just what his computer models show. He does this largely as a public service. Do your due diligence and listen to what he says, not what you want him to be saying.
Curt,
Please review the KWN website and you’ll find the interview I’m referring to. In fact, I listened to it just the other day, and thought what a mind numbing miscalculation MA made about gold. There are 2. One is Oct 2nd and the other is Oct 15th. Both in 2011. Here’s the link to KWN http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/12/19_Martin_A._Armstrong.html – Furthermore, I’ve heard 4 interviews with Armstrong this month, including one with Rick Wiles of True News. In each interview, Armstrong offers a strange and contradictory message. He most certainly should be viewed with skepticism, as I believe he has been DEEPLY compromised. And yes, he did prison time and probably now works for Timmy Geithner.
I agree. I also find MA to contradict. he says he doesn’t think we are showing signs of hyperinflation, then goes onto say that prices have gone up. He says up to 2011 people lost confidence in the govt and that is why the gold prices went up, but people still have no confidence now, so the gold prices should be through the ceiling. He doesn’t mention that stock and gold markets are being purposely controlled either etc., etc.,
Angee, you are not comprehending Armstrong’s writings. You are putting your expectations into what he writes. First, your definition of hyperinflation is different than the historical definition. Prices rising does not constitute hyperinflation. Also, confidence in govt is not about being mad at your congressmen. It’s about dependence. Right now, people are dependent. That’s not a loss of confidence. Armstrong is absolutely right in this, and as a reader who has followed him for over a decade, and been angry at him for being one of the few voices of the blogosphere to call the bear market in gold, if you are objective, you will see he has been spot on.
Jeff
as someone who is objective AND who has read ALL of Mr Armstrong’s writings from Princeton Economics to jailhouse to current and read all of his published interviews and have had the pleasure and privilege of personal correspondence with Mr Armstrong, I disagree with your “spot on” comment. He is right about some and wrong about some. His position on gold has varied wildly.
One thing that Mr Armstrong is “Spot on” would be his analysis of the collapse of an empire from the periphery to the core. A little pain in the core translates to serious pain in the hinterlands due to the differential in dependency.
@Tim: He seemed to waiver on gold after being released from the Big House. Many on the internet seem skeptical if his release entailed a position change and his stance on gold. And you are absolutely correct a lot of people lost a lot of money listening to his gold advice back around 2010 and 2011.
I now take anything he states with a grain of salt and with a side of horse chips.
I agree with you Tim. Around September of last year Armstrong said that the gold cycle would resume its upward trend by March 2014! Gold actually got smashed last march. The more I read Armstrong and the more I think that he is a shill working for the power that be. He is there only to misinform and confuse us. Whatever he says, I would take it with a pinch of salt. In my eyes this guy has no credibility.
By the way Greg, I am a big fan of your site and I really enjoy 99% of your guests and interviews. Thank you for all the hard work you do. Sorry for my negative comment today and please don’t take it personally. We can’t agree on everything all the time…!
I am not sure Mr Armstrong is a shill. But he does remind me of Professors of Economics in college where they live by their mathematic models throughout their tenured career. It is like the old joke that if you have two economists on an issue you will get three opinions. They try to do all this modeling that really never works. But who knows, maybe he is right?
Tim,
Out of fairness to Armstrong and Sinclair who missed too, who would think that Naked short position is becoming legal in this crooked system.
Yes Mohammad, I understand. But, Armstrong should explain himself if he wants to retain any credibility. Don’t you agree?
Tim,
Those people calculate every word they say so it does not put them in legal troubles, if you filter the fear factor out, you will find great substance in what he says!
Mohammed, I remember closely following Catherine Austin Fitts a few years ago, she was well inside the belly of the beast, within the past year and a half she sings a new polly anna tune that the dollar is ok and things will be fime and are not that bad.
In fact, this complete change ruined her friendship with Mike Ruppert.
Why did she compeletly change her tune…did someone get to her. It happens all the time…just pointing this out.
CAF, did not change her tune to my understanding, she thinks the elites are working on the new society that will stampede the average middle class man and the poor, will depopulate and emerges leaner meaner to compete in the world and dominate, that was my understanding to her all along unless i missed, she called it the break away society, funded by the black budget!
Mohammad,
She came out and said all was well , dollar was stronger, it all can be saved etc etc… she did walk a lot of her previous views back.
I was stunned at her latest expression. And yes she used to spell out what you just said. But there has been a major change in course.
In my opinion, I may be wrong but it sure sounded that way to me.
Have to agree with you Tim. My favorite statement was ;
“Are we going to the right, more authoritarian or towards democracy” . REALLY!?!?
Then there is an issue with his timing – 2016… We are not going to make it. The world is on the verge of a world war and at the very least this war/conflict/possible treaty is going to change the world as we know it. At home something major is going to happen by fiscal end at home as there are more promises out there than money. This is going to be a hot summer.
Angie,
Perhaps we should all breathe a sigh of relief that these prognosticators like MA are only economists, and not airline pilots or structural engineers.
With government sanctioned accounting fraud, you cant get enough accurate information to make a long term bet in the market. It goes what ever way the manipulators want it to go, regardless of the real fundamentals. Does anyone think 3% is a real rate on our thirty year bonds? Hell, thats not even enough to cover the real rate of inflation today, much less what it will be in two years or five.
It’s at the 14:30 mark.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/10/15_Martin_A._Armstrong.html
I’ve noticed with all these cycle guys that they really have no clue. I smelled a rat after 2012 when Marty had been touting that a correction in gold would be satisfied if it only treaded water for the year, further downside was not necessary. Then come 2013 and he forgets this & says that gold needs to go way down to clear out the diehard longs. A far cry from the “world monetary system is going to collapse” as per the Oct 15 2011 KWN interview.
It’s not a stretch to suspect that Marty is playing ball with the boyz. At one point it looked like he wasn’t getting out of the pen alive, then all of a sudden he’s out. Perhaps a deal was proffered. Be a perpetual short term gold bear or else…
Mr Armstrong got out because he had spent more time in jail than most murderers and he did really do anything to be sent to jail. Sure jail messes him up. Not sure any of us would be without quirks if we had been thru what he has. When all the current bankers are put in jail, the world will be a better place
Patricia,
Well stated indeed.
Fully agree. Mr. Armstrong is a charlatan. I’ve read a lot of his writings. Economics is just a hobby of mine and I readily accept that he might know and understand it better than me. However, he occasionally writes on subjects about which I *know* that I know much better than him, because I am a professional and he is not – and he does write a lot of nonsense on these subjects. He also keeps changing his predictions. His recent take on the situation in Ukraine was utterly biased.
That said, like every good charlatan, he often says things that are perfectly true. You just have to stay on your toes and think for yourself, instead of taking all his writings as a gospel, like many people do.
I thought what he said about his clients wanting to get their money out of the banks was good info. Also what his clients told him about the Fed only covering depositors and not trading losses was pretty revealing as well. Thank you Vess for your comment and for adding your perspective.
Greg
Greg,
That has always had me confused when people say get money out of banks and put them into stocks. What do people do with their profit from stocks? Do they all buy land or gold? Where do most stock holders place their earnings? Also, if the Banks start crashing will stocks be a safe haven? I think I will stick to debt reduction, food, and silver.
If the Great Depression is any indication, stocks are not a safe haven. But there are some companies that survived the Great Depression and while they took a big hit, they still had some value. However, many companies declared bankruptcy bringing their stock value to zero.
Which subjects are you referring to? What specifically was he wrong about?
Thanks for introducing us to Mr. Armstrong. I had never heard of him.
Cash buyers making up such a large percentage of real estate (43-50%!) highlights that the housing “recovery” and economic recovery is a total farce and is helping just those with access to capital or with capital already. Indeed as Greg points out US economy slowed to 0.1 percent growth rate in Q1 (There is no “recovery” !!!)
Existing home sales and new home construction are low and new home construction is at near all time lows-take the cash buyers away and total home sales would be in a massive depression. Also consider that new home sales are at the same levels of the 60’s and 70’s when the country had 30% fewer people!
Calling it a recovery just because the home prices are rising on the few homes being sold is a farce.
Here are two charts that show it: http://smaulgld.com/why-the-housing-recovery-is-a-farce-illustrated-by-two-charts/
Hi Greg
I don’t agree with your guest, I have several reasons:
1st) We live a lot faster then the Roman or the British empire did. Economical and social processes which took for them centuries or decades for them now are taking decades and years. For example in the last 2 centuries the Roman empire was take over by “barbarians”, now the American empire had been take over in the last 2 decades not Just by the Russians and Chinese, but by the illegal immigrants to (new immigration laws, general pardon for illegal aliens etc.).
2nd) Japan and the EU is on the verge of the bankruptcy and collapse. A small hiccup caused by pipeline valve closure because the Ukrainians were stupid enough to steeling natural gas or crude oil, or a small drop in Nikkei and game over.
3rd)The Russian, Chinese and other BRICS governments are anything but stupid. They know what is coming for at least 6 years and preparing for that. In other words they are putting together they own little empire while the America empire is decaying, like the “barbarians” did while the Roman empire were decaying.
4th) Putin or rather then the Russian leadership is smart enough to NOT try put together the Soviet Union. What matters to them are secure borders in other words being surrounded by Russian friendly or neutral regimes. That is the reason why Putin is doing what he is doing, because basically he have 2 choices a) take entire Ukraine, which is/would be huge burden for everyone who take it, b) take the south-east part which is industrialized (aviation, rocket engineering etc) and let the western part “starve” (closing the valves), which sooner rather then later will crawl back to Russia. So the days of the Nazi regime which was put in charge by CIA/USA sponsored coup are numbered.
5th) Coup in Kiev was a Franz-Ferdinand moment, when the Russians said enough and when basically the WWIII started. Well it wont be a shooting war between superpowers, because it would end as a thermonuclear war. It is a financial, economical and a proxy shooting war (look at the last announcements about the BRICS bank, Syria, Ukraine etc).
6th) The BRICS countries will sooner rather then later drop the economical equivalents of the thermonuclear bomb as a reaction on a especially stupid, irrational and aggressive move of the US government. These equivalents are abandoning the US$ and introducing gold and other commodity based currencies which will end up as total collapse of the American empire and hyperinflation in EU, Japan and USA. (Actually the BRICS know, they will be hurt to, but actually they think they have mechanisms to minimize the damages.)
Your thoughts.
911,
You’ve said a lot and I have to digest it all. Your points are well made and well taken.
Greg
Thank you Greg.
Lets have a little history lesson. Everybody heard about the Vandals the German tribe, who sacked Rome leaving huge scars in the minds of Romans thus became the synonym for pillager. But they were much more than that, before they sacked Rome they 1st established Kingdom in north Africa around Carthage. So this is what I meant when I wrote “like the “barbarians” did while the Roman empire were decaying”.
The second thing I need to say, there IS manipulation in gold price. Well the Donetsk and neighboring regions voted for independence, which is huge destabilizing event, the gold reacted by a huge drop in price caused by massive sell order: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-11/sunday-gold-smackdown-east-ukraine-independence-edition
Several dozen massive sell order like this and you will see a “bear market” in gold, although gold is moving eastward in huge quantities into Russia, India, China etc.
Your thoughts.
911,
There is no doubt that every market is massively manipulated on a global scale. I do wonder if this messes up the timing of the Economic Confidence Model. This kind of global manipulation has never occurred in recorded history–never. That said, I thought Armstrong made some really good points on imploding from the outside in and what he said about the big banks, the Fed warning it was not going to cover losses from trading and bail-ins was priceless. Without a doubt, the gold market is massively manipulated. The evidence of that is overwhelming.
Greg
Oracle- Outstanding point. Notice the theme here…Its about the BRICS breaking off. Never in our history has there been this type of event went a super dominant economy swallows another one. The BRICS will destroy the dollar. And all these equity guys dont seem to see that currency is king.
EvenWarren Buffet learned through Benjaminn Graham, based on a solid stable currency. They never even imagined this type of currency printing…
It is the BRICS that will make the dollar impotent.
BY the way, dramatically raising real estate taxes is also a bail in!!!!
Wddeni &Greg
Thank you for kind words.
BTW draconian tax recovery laws are bail ins too: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-21/british-tax-authorities-just-out-mafiad-irs
— “And all these equity guys dont seem to see that currency is king”
Actually the correct idiom is “cash is king” not currency. It was created when currency was just an addition to gold and silver – cash.
I absolutely agree with you in each and every one of these statements. The first one is specially important, in my view, and hardly anybody seems to be pointing it out. A book was written a long time ago dealing with the increasing pace of change in post-modern societies, surpassing the ability of individuals to adapt their mindsets and behaviour at such rythm (and this was in the early seventies) The key point is that it also applies to analitic knowledge and skills, leading to “accelerated obsolescense” So, to sum it all up, history can provide a hint but not a script and we need to be careful on how do we reach conclusions, we may be employing an outdated methodology.
Anyway, fine interviews result in fine posts like the previous one. Thank you so much for the work you´re doing Greg. Know it´s more than appreciated, treasured, by many, specially in the times we´re going through and even outside of the U.S. (I´m spanish) Keep it up.
Best regards
Is there any white swans flying any more? Every one is seeing black lately.
Greg, I rarely disagree with your guest, but Martin Armstrong lost me when he said the Chinese can’t set up an alternate exchange system to replace the dollar using the Yuan . He’s wrong. They’re doing it right now. Over 80 countries have signed on to it including all the major countries of the G20. Are you telling me in a currency war, that fiat money will win over Gold? Good luck with that.
Its foolish to think the rest of the world will allow us to continue to print money, and drag down the rest of the worlds economies to support it. Its not going to happen. If Mr. Armstrong thinks we have until the end of 2016 to see a pullback in the economy, he really needs to get out of his office more. Greg the dynamics that he is using to postulate his economic theories no longer apply. There is a paradigm shift taking place right now away from the dollar. Its everywhere you look if you’re paying attention.
Jerry,
As per CAF the G8, (now 7) had pulled the capital from G20 and they are puppy training them on who the master is.
China is good in hiding their trouble but if they do not have Snowdens there that does not mean they are doing ok!
@Jerry
You are spot on!
Yep.
What amazes me is the analysis always try and still use their charts to convince people the market is going to move one way or the other. But the charts are useless with all the fraud, corruption & manipulation of the markets since the 08 collapse.
Great interview Greg, I wish you would have asked him what asset allocation he recommended starting in 2016 and how low does he see the stock market going to during that time…thanks again, keep up the great work.
There is a reason Armstrong is so off base . One of the conditions for the FEDs letting him out of jail early was for him to become a disinformation agent like Ricards. I agree with oracle 911 above on most of his points. Armstrong looks tired and his mind scattered, but then yours would be too if you have been put in prison by the Feddies and had taken daily beatings . I was told that one of these conditions was to quit pumping the price of gold in the short term , as he been quite a gold bull before they threw him in the slammer. all of us would break at some point under pressure and I think Armstrong did. I was told by one of your other frequent guests that he had been “compromised” . be careful taking him too seriously .
Spanky,
You said, “One of the conditions for the FEDs letting him out of jail early was for him to become a disinformation agent. . .” Do you have a source for this or is this just what you think. If there is a source for this comment please post it.
Greg,
I am sorry I can’t reveal my source on this ;however he has been a guest many times on your show. I also have a backup source on this who needs to remain anonymous. So at the expense of lacking credibility readers can decide for themselves; however, if you do a little research on why Armstrong went to jail I think you can come to the conclusion that he had been compromised as a condition for his release. If you listen to the interview carefully you can see that he is very careful not to bash the FED, the dollar, or the US war machine. he goes on to say that Putin is an “old world” guy….. really? let’s see what happens in the next 6 months.
Spank,
I usedo to be a big fan of Catherine Austin Fitts, she told of end times and all the black budgets and budgets within budgets. She also said we were facing a financial armeggedon.
A little over a year ago she did an about face, you have to wonder why…. someone had to get to her.
Yep. and it’s drug induced from what I hear
Ohhhh, another secret source or was that secrete. …
Greg.
Mr. Armstrong wrote frequent letters from prison that were put on the web by a friend. They were all favorable to gold so he has a substantial record of opinion prior to his receiving a new cellmate that came very close to beating him to death. He had to be hospitalized for some time but was paroled without being returned to prison. Obviously Mr. Armstrong had some kind of epiphany while in the hospital recovering from his beating as his subsequent writings did an immediate 180, perhaps under the supervision of his parole officer.
Spank,
Armstrong didnt do anything that deserved jail. The bankers didn’t get any time. He wasn’t making phony financial statements. He made agreements to pay money back at a certain interest rate. What he did was piss off two very powerful rich guys by outing the tremendous silver holdings and their possible manipulation of the silver market. Armstrong has the distinction of being held the longest in US history for contempt of court.
interesting point. i’m not sure where everyone is coming from portraying armstrong as being somehow against gold. from what i have read, he has never bashed gold, and has always called it a hedge against gov’t. he has also been consistent in saying people are going to lose confidence in gov’t.
With the name spanky; who could take you seriously? True he makes extraordinary claims; however your first sources provide zero–yes absolute zero credibility you the readership here. Try again.
Outstanding interview. Martin ‘s grasp of history in general and the interrelationships between world events and capital flows are brilliant. The insights provided on his blog are well worth following. Top shelf work scoring this interview.
No, I do not have a link Greg but when you stop and think about his detention, and I am sure most here are aware that he was held for the better part of a decade imprisoned for contempt charges not for the original charge of fraud, for some reason somebody wanted him bad.
http://www.examiner.com/article/famed-economist-martin-armstrong-released-from-jail-according-to-sources
Armstrong he’s the US record for being held in contempt
don’t agree with mr. armstrong on US economy. I’ve been a small business man for thirty years and see the economy rotton to core other than ag. Obama care, food and energy are killing the consumer. Real estate is a dead issue and the refi to take out cash is done. The only question is will our economy die a slow death or suddenly. I look for our esteemed leaders to pull something if our economy slows further. I enjoy your site, keep us informed.
Hi Greg
I am only a farmer not an expert on economics or finance.
However I consider myself an expert on bullshite since my core business is breeding hundreds of animals [ Angus bulls] that produce a lot of this stuff.
I like to think that I recognize it most times when I see it and hear it.
Basically I was in total disagreement with virtually every statement made by MA.
Greg I think I could also detect total bewilderment, if not outright shock, at times from your expressions during this interview.
I say total bullshite to his comments on;
#1 ‘the US economy being strong underneath’ – where abouts underneath would this be?
#2 ‘declining emerging markets’ – last time I looked EMs had only 20% of global debt and 80% of reserves. The use of the $US as reserve currency is in free fall!
The EMs are net creditors of the world.
#3 ‘internal capital flows holding up the US’ – isn’t this inflow going to be the biggest problem?
#4 ‘the core economy never collapses first’ – never say never and is it really still the core economy of the world?
#5 his call on gold ‘ not turning up until 2016’ – how can this possibly be correct when you look at the vast amount of paper gold that has been sold
#6 using so-called ‘300 year cycles’ to predict events in todays new world
#7 “any manipulation cannot change the direction of the trend’ – what about when the US economy is manipulated in virtually every sense of the word by a private cartel owned central bank that prints endless amounts of $s and lies about everything it does?
Excuse my language today but I’m afraid this guy left me totally gobsmacked.
I think you were at times too Greg.
Cheers
Colin
Colin
There were so many inconsistencies in what Mr. Armstrong said, there are not enough ones and zeros in cyberspace to take him to task.
Rome fell due to being sacked by an invading army. There is evidence of inflation in ancient Rome and debasement of its currency. Due to inflation and lack of funds, the Roman empire collapsed in on itself, growing smaller and smaller as it couldn’t pay its bills.
And as far as an underlying strength in the US economy, there is not enough manure in Asia to cover up that analysis.
And having done an analysis of his PI theory, Mr. Armstrong rounds numbers at different decimal places to make his theory work. And the world is a big place. His forecasting is like Nostradamus, its so nebulous that you can find something bottoming out or increasing on the day his forecast.
He made some big calls and was right and he made more equally big calls that were stinkers. He couldn’t find a winner when he was investing the Japanese’s money.
In his early writings, he pointed to following the flow of money as a big indicator of future performance. With program trading, the speed of transactions, government and corporate market manipulationand dark pools, I dont believe a person can get enough accurate information quickly to be able to make forecast like Mr. Armstrong made in the past.
While I do believe that things move in cycles, I dont believe the economy of the world is on a timer like the rotation of the planets around the sun. Economies, left to there own devices, self-regulate. Our problem is that the REAL economy is so distorted that when it goes to equilibrium, there is going to be atomic blast (metaphorically speaking) of destruction. What else would you expect from an economy based on fraud?
G500
Yes I think we are pretty much on the same page on this one.
Cheers
Col
@Galaxy 500: I thought the Romans debased their currency by removing gold and silver content and replacing with base metals like brass or zinc. More brass and less gold is currency debasement or inflation!
Of you check above, you’ll find
” There is evidence of inflation in ancient Rome and debasement of its currency. “
@Oracle 911, great points!! Thank You
@Jerry, well said! Thank You
For those not in the know, Mr Armstrong was released from jail, under the agreement that he work with the Feds. Martin has be compromised and is a disinformation agent.
caveat emptor!
Malcolm,
Do you have a source for this comment. If so, please post it.
Greg
Greg,
http://www.themartinarmstrongcase.com/?p=490
“Armstrong was indicted on September 29, 1999 in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York for an alleged fraud where he was claimed to have conspired with employees of Republic New York bank involving Japanese investors.”
“He was released from prison on September 2, 2011. On April 18, 2012, Armstrong wrote an open letter to the former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission receiver Mr. Tancred Schiavoni. Armstrong provides an overview of his version of the case.”
Mohammad,
Nice work. If people like MA are going to influence the masses with their economic points of view, we must hold their feet to the fire. MA works on retainer as a consultant, and he did absolutely destroy many pension funds with his erroneous gold price predictions..
Tim,
No one had seen the overt ILLEGAL manipulation and the overt DESTRUCTION of the mechanism of the market nor thought it would reach this degree of obscenity, so calling it erroneous is inaccurate in my humble opinion.
What can we call stealing billions of dollars in the day light from MF global clients including GERALD CELENTIE the FORECASTER and the thief goes home free with a bonus.
How can any one make an accurate call in such environment?
Which pension funds were ruined by Armstrong? Please do provide names. Or is this just another blatant misrepresentation of the fact? Armstrong has his problems but there are a few “nuggets” in his interview for those that can separate the wheat from the chaff.
Greg? Sometimes in the absence of “sources” one has to instead use their LOGIC, their COMMON SENSE, and their understanding of HUMAN NATURE and what makes people “tick”. Or, rather, what makes them do the things they do and say the things they say. Connect the dots in Mr. Armstrong’s recent life, and the conclusions are obvious. ‘Nuff said.
Right nuff said…cant let those pesky facts get in the way of real world analysis or what I like to call making shiite up
I recall when LTCM went bust. They had “the smartest guys in the room”, Nobel Prize winners in Economics who had created mathematical investment models that they said could not fail even over “the entire life of the universe”. Their hubris was breathtaking and LTCM went bust during its fourth year. It seems to me that Armstrong’s models are looking backward more than forward and that he is expecting the unwinding of the dollar to be neat and orderly, perhaps tied up with a pretty little bow in the end. But markets can be unpredictable, vicious, and nasty things. My sense is that Dr. Willie has more information at his disposal and is far more inclined to see the world as it is now, rather than as it was in the past. For me anyway, Armstrong’s views do not have much of the ring of truth.
Quite good.
Martin’s viewpoints are more real world verses those that are using economic rules to forecast.
Normal rules do not apply in this economy.
He also believes that a serious downturn will happen when the next president takes office!
Why then?
Because they don’t fix things – they never do.
All they do is postpone problems.
The view Martin has on a slow continuing shrinking economy is correct.
The US has been bleeding for over 40 years.
General Motors which had Yearly Budget larger than all the countries in the world except 3 now is now a basket case.
What three countries – The USA, Germany and Japan which in the 1960’s and 1970’s were the top dogs in the world.
So what are we looking at going forward?
More of the same.
First we have to look at the Federal Reserve.
This was designed to protect the largest banks.
The banks can’t allow the government to fail so they will bail out the government to protect themselves.
Thus we have the only way this can take place is if they cancel the debt.
How do they do that?
The way they are doing it now.
First absorb all the debt by foreigners.
Buying the debt slowly month by month until only the Fed has the majority of this debt.
Is this what they are really doing?
I think so.
Your prior guest has said they can’t keep a zero percent interest rate for too long a period else it will have dire consequences.
How can you raise the interest rates with a Government that can not afford a rate higher than 2 percent.
You can’t !!
Look to a major crisis in 2016 in which they will do exactly this.
I worked as a consultant in Wall Street and the Banking system
The system world wide is run in NYC
The people in NYC do not really know there is a major problem.
As for if other countries can create a new system and let the USA go – no they can’t.
It would take a major effort to do this and none of the other countries have this ability.
All they have done so far is nothing more than barter deals.
Russia has had major problems when the US banks were going to cut them off.
Watch RT news.
China is no better off than Russia.
China had a major gift when the took over Hong Kong.
Chase Manhattan’s Hong Kong branch did more business than all except it’s NYC branch.
This helped China a great deal but they are still a long way off from being a super star.
China can fold in one year and revert back to what they once were.
You see power may shift hands but those that once had it will never stop trying to get it back. They remain in the shadows waiting for the right moment.
First even if they can create a new system they can’t drop the USA.
We are a curse on the world.
If they loose all the business the US generates this is like moving from Trump Tower to Motel 6.
They are stuck with us for better or worse.
No one from over there will save us.
No – it’s up to you – you have to save us.
You have to vote for those that will change it.
Learn all you can so you can make sound decisions and spread the word then Vote!
Vincentg,
Thank you for adding your professional perspective! Please comment again.
Greg
Armstrong is someone to watch carefully. IMO, he can offer great insights, but in the next breath has some off-beat assessments that strike me as discordant. I don’t read his material anymore. His whole take on the gold market is skewed. Something is off with the guy.
I felt the necessity to follow up to my previous comment. Here is some of the reasons why I distrust martin Armstrong:
Around 11:35 minutes in your video, Martin says: “The money supply increase that the Fed did, produced no inflation, because the money supply is very global right now”.
To this I say: What!!! When I go shopping, prices of just about everything have increased quite significantly over the last 4 years, such as; meat, vegetables, fruits, peanut butter, laundry detergent, soap, mouth wash, gasoline, rent, etc, etc… I can assure Armstrong that inflation is alive and well where I live!
So here comes Armstrong supporting the rigged BLS/Fed CPI number! Everybody knows that the official CPI number underestimates by a wide margin the real inflation number. Just ask your good friend at Shadowstat.com! No inflation really?
Then Armstrons goes on saying that an art paint that sold for $200,000 a few years ago was planned to sell for several millions at the next auction! No inflation? Then he goes to say the same about the price of real estate! Here again no inflation? How about real estate prices going up affecting rental prices and therefore affecting prices in: restaurants, bars, shops, etc?
Around 13:40 minutes, Martin says: “The whole problem with taxes, etc Honestly we don’t really need taxes anymore. You needed it when gold was money!.
WHAT A PILE OF TRASH!!! Maybe someone should explain to Armstrong why the IRS was created at the same time as the Federal Reserve in 1913. In a fiat currency system where money is created out of debt, tax from the state is the only thing backing your currency. A gold currency needs no backing from a taxation system because gold has its own intrinsic value. Right here we can clearly see how dishonest Armstrong truly is. He is bashing gold saying that if gold was money then the Government would need more taxes!
Around 14:05, Martin says: “This whole theory of borrowing money for what, I don’t know. It’s just lying in the pocket of bankers. It is not actually helping the man on the street or anything”.
I say that this is the biggest BS Martin said on your show today. At the level where Armstrong is, he HAS to understand the functioning of a fiat currency fractional reserve monetary system where money is created out of debt. His above statement clearly shows how dishonest he is.
In a fractional reserve debt based monetary system, the total amount of debt/money MUST permanently grow. Otherwise the system collapses upon itself in a deflationary spiral. This is due to the fact that only the capital portion of a loan is created, leaving no money supply for the interest part of the repayment to the banks. At any given point in time, there never is enough money in the system to fully repay all the created loans PLUS their interests. For those who would like to improve their understanding of this very crucial point of the world financial/monetary system I recommend watching the following 2 very instructive videos: Money as Debt and The Money Masters.
And then he goes on further bashing gold as being in a bear market with one more new low coming ahead.
Then his explanation on Ukraine is the dumbest comment I have listened to in the last 6 months.
Sorry Greg, this man has no credibility to me. I am convinced that he is a shill working for the power that be. His aim is to confuse and misinform the public.
Decent points; but they are all anecdotal. I have been following ma for two years and he has never bashed gold; he hasn’t said it will skyrocket but he had never bashed…
oh yeah, you need martin back. thanks greg, he put a lot into perspective. my one question. why can’t we put down X-factor, oh yeah! it’s been cancelled. hope? or one of those tv shows or news outlets, and understand what’s going on here? please people pole head out of butt, spread the word, i always give greg hunters name, let them decide for them selves. we could as a people could take this in our own hands with little to no violence and succeed. more of us=more power.
I stopped listening to Armstrong long ago, and your interview affirmed why I did. He ignores the Nuland tape proving it wasn’t a popular uprising against corruption in Ukraine. It was another CIA/USAID, NED/Chevron sponsored coup. The presentation she made in December telling of the $5 billion the U.S. has spent there, sponsored by Chevron, has been well circulated.
I live in Thailand and know full well the protests are anything but the people rising up against corruption. The Democrat party here is the equivalent of the Republican party in the U.S.
That party here hasn’t won an election since 1991. They want their crooks and puppets in power, but can’t get it done at the ballot box. So they buy the Constitutional Court or military brass who overthrew the last three elected, populist governments in six years.
Did you see the reason they gave for booting Yingluck?!
They put their puppets in until the next election, which they lose again, but in the interim, get something they couldn’t get before, and another shot at elections, which is more than they had before too.
This too is well documented. How he misses all this is a mystery. Maybe his head is too buried in his self promotional material to look up and see what’s being reported.
Oh, by the way, about his comment about ”what does Wall Street have to do with pensions cratering?” As in, how can anyone blame Wall Street for pension funds under-performing?
How about this, also widely circulated recently?
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/looting-the-pension-funds-20130926
Armstrong’s adoration for all things Thatcher needs serious updating.
So he doesn’t buy into what Jim Wiley and others are saying about China and Russia planning an alternative currency to the US dollar for international trade transactions. Interesting.
He also comes up with this 300 year civil unrest cycle which I don’t understand. How about 1861 to 1865, did he somehow forget about that episode in US history? If my math is correct that a little more recent than 300 years ago.
Sorry, but I’m not putting a lot of credence in what he had to say. Try to get David Stockman at http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/ if you want some better insight of what is really going on out there. In my opinion, he’s up there with Paul Craig Roberts whose articles I also enjoy reading.
Thank you for having guest on that present different views and timelines on how things play out. Such guest challenge your readers to gain a different perspective and/or insights into current affairs. This time, one of many was “manipulation can not change the general trend” . I think 1% of society make things happen, 2% (YOUR READERS) react and prepare to what is going to happen, 7 % observe what is happening and 90 % of the population will wonder someday what just happened.
” I think we are all dominos in one line and we all are vulnerable at one point to topple, we all just need to move back further in the stack and hope there is a break in the chain before it gets to us.” Will H
Again Thanks for your dedication for educating us as we try to react and prepare for what will happen and for having new guest on.
Will,
I try to get the best people possible and get them on to let people hear what they have to say. It took me more than a year to book Armstrong. Thank you for noticing his different perspective, although some disagree with some of what he had to say.
Greg
Greg,
He did have something different to say, no doubt. But he did remind me of listening to Robert Reisch and his take on economic issues in the 1990s. About 5 minutes of it and you quit believing. Here are some issues that so-called economist never answer.
If our economy is rebounding, then will we see–
1. Less people requesting food stamps and Govt assistance.
2. Bank savings and CDs where interest paid exceeds 2%.
3. US Dollar index above 90.
4. Much fewer mortgage bailouts.
5. Gold and silver dropping 50%.
6. Students paying loans and dropping debt well under $1T.
7. Americans buying T-bills instead of foreigners.
If no to any above, then we are not recovering. Just playing the game until it ends….
Did he just say “there is no inflation”?
He’s not living in MY world.
There is no inflation in the propped world for the rich. Inflation is for the peasants….
Ken. 7 years of depression and we still have not raised prices. Oh and America has become a more productive kinder nation. Debasement and inflation have the same effect… Unemployment, and a lack of confidence in fake money. Great comment man !
My pastor would say unemployment is the devils workshop.
I believe the original quote is,”For Satan always finds some mischief still for idle hands to do.” Isaac Watts
Here is a more accurate pictures as to what is taking place by Jim Willie.
http://beforeitsnews.com/alternative/2014/05/jim-willie-brics-80-preparing-to-take-down-the-dollar-not-good-at-all-2954632.html
In my mind the Chinese are literally choking the Banking Cartel , with their own worthless paper (in QE printing) shoving it down their throats, while they make off with the Gold to start a new market. Greg over 150 exchange platforms, have been set up world wide the last 3 years, and the U.S. has not been included in one of them. What does that tell you?
All the Chinese need is someone to put/have faith in the value of their currency.
Do I need to mention that many around the world are losing faith in USD? I believe many are using USD “very cautiously”.
Jerry, great angle. This is the MACRO ECON lesson they won’t seem to learn. This is it. Pulling plug on dollar/US. What else matters. All the gold is the ultimate hedge/insurance, thats it. It is the saftey net. Russia/China have massive amounts ( that we know about). Economic strength is not as relative as the strength or legitimacy of the currency. All arrows point to this shift. It seesm so apparent to me.
Great angle, great research!!!
I’m unsure about other states but here in N.J. Mr. Armstrong left out a few details regarding the pension fund. All state workers including police, firefighters etc.. contribute between 7 and 11% of their salaries into the pension fund with the state matching those contributions. Guess how much N.j. Has contributed to that fund over the last 20 yrs or so? If you guessed zero then you’re a winner on the price is right.
Christie once again wildly overestimated tax revenue and is now balking at making the 2.25 billion dollar payment he promised after state workers agreed to pension reform three years ago.
No I am not a state employee but these little details should not be glossed over.
Fiscal irresponsibility by states and municipalities have as much if not more to do with grossly underfunded pension obligations then anything, at least in N.J.
I don’t know about this one Greg. It seems a lot of what Mr. Armstrong is saying does not jive with what we see and are being told by some of your other guests. I don’t put too much faith in those who work with what seem to be the “old-school-fundamentals” such as reasons for the price of Gold. For example Dr. Jim Willie’s explanation of the purposeful suppression of the Gold-Price and it’s flight from West to East as a payoff of debt.
We also know of all the fraud, LIBOR etc….holding down of interest rates, so it seems basic economics 101 cycles are not in play…. We have also been shown all the evidence to support the fact that the move from the DOLLAR is already in motion, how about the Ukraine bailout denominated in SDR’s?
Thanks Greg for giving us another perspective. This gave me an opportunity to listen to Mr. Armstrong once again whom I listened to many years ago on King World News.
He is one smart dude, but I don’t think anyone can say how America’s decline will all play out with any kind of certainty. What comes first, the collapse of a government or the collapse of its national currency? Doesn’t really matter.
I personally believe that the U.S. dollar is in serious trouble and because of that America will soon be a much poorer nation and no longer the economic superpower. Maybe not the big military power in the world either. China and Russia, along with a critical mass of many nations, will change the current economic and political world order and structure. Things are going to be much different than they are at the moment. I still believe that America is destined for a great fall, especially relative to all other nations.
Unfortunately, hyperinflation and political fascism seem to be the dominant themes of our near future. I can’t see how they won’t be.
I guess it is fair to say that the result of all that has been going on will be chaos, unpredictable and wild, all we have to go on is the past and assumptions about the present given the level of deceit. It is probably safe to say that the united states is not an empire in the classic sense and so its collapse will not adhere as faithfully to the general pattern history shows as one might expect. The US is an empire with no central core and its leadership is a loose confederation of globalist entities operating purely on an almost casual opportunistic model, this so called empire is more like a fungal web in the forest soil feeding on dead things in the dark.
Brian,
lol!!– “fungal web in the forest soil feeding on dead things in the dark”–
Greg,
Love your interview.
M.A. wrote “how and when” not found on his site anymore but found here http://armstrongeconomics.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/armstrongeconomics-how-when-030111.pdf .
He does write about gold to $5000 and maybe 12,500 by 2015/16. Was he not one of the people involved in creating the derivatives Markets, the beast that is at the core of the issue?
The inventors are Fred Manko, John Edelman and Martin Armstrong.
M.A. can talk down gold til he turns blue. I hope gold does not go higher than 3K$ personally as that will mean harm to many, my mother tells me stories of children screaming of hunger at 3Am in the morning on the streets during GERMAN occupation in her homeland. But if gold does exceed such amounts CHAOS/PANIC will set the price. You will only see a BID and it will be hard to get. But only the future will write the final chapter to this take down. Its insurance!
Keep in mind everyone talks their position.
God help us all around the world.
Agora, derivatives have been around for a long long time. You need them to create a market for commodities. It is wrong to assign global definitions to something just because the press has focused on it as one of the “reasons”. There is more behind the story.
That is like saying recessions and depressions are bad things without looking at the behavior that went on to lead up to such things.
I disagree that you need derivatives as we have them to trade commodities
Your job Greg, (and you do it very well btw,) is to bring different views to the table as source material for further inquiry and discussion, something the MSM shelved a long time ago. That said; I have read some of Mr. Armstrong’s work and did some due diligence with respect to that work. I’m not an economist, nor do I play one on TV, and I’m certainly no prognosticator of any sort, but Mr. Armstrong leaves me at least nonplussed. Armstrong declares in your interview “The US economy is still going up, albeit under the surface.” – Paraphrased of course. Ummm s’cuse me? The GDP contracted, the fed is printing dollars furiously, unemployment/job participation is abysmal and the government is leveraged to the hilt. What economy? I found Mr. Armstrong’s interview to be at least disingenuous and perhaps a little self-aggrandizing, just my opinion, I could be wrong. Love your work, keep it up!
Thanks,
Matt
Matthew
Ding…..Ding…….Ding…….you nailed it.
Greg, thank you for bringing this guest on. He made several good points about our current economic situation but Armstrong’s models can’t be accurate if he is plugging in the manipulated data that is being distributed via world governments. Also, we can’t compare the current economic climate with that of Rome or any other empire. Today’s economic world is lashed together with derivatives and massive electronic fiat creation. He also seemed a little unsure about why the government should even tax and not just print more but then insisted that heavy taxation is on the way.
I have to wonder how would this heavy taxation help? It wont help and more printing would surely needed. Also, he didn’t correlate the fact the the gold market is heavily manipulated!! He is taking the numbers and simply calling it a bear market. I can only conclude that he is not looking at the big picture and has lost some of his situational awareness. Thanks, JM
Greg,
This is the pinnacle of your interviews and it is so much packed with great info that takes many times listening to in order to digest.
No doubt Russia is for land grab and expansion and that is not for simply putting the soviet union back, rather it is for reaching the warm waters in Mediterranean sea for their fleet to be able to roam, they are building AN IMPIRE, we have to forget about the soviet union mentality, THEY WANT JERUSALEM, they will claim the world if they do so, and it is not a secret how much tension between israel and russia especially over Syria and Iran.
Their grab of Ukraine will put them at a pouncing position for grabbing Turkey, they want HAGIA SOPHIA, that will be a target on the road to Jerusalem, now wether they succeed or not it is up to time to tell, but this is their intention. They got Cyprus, Syria, Iran … Turkey is coming and voila they will be a major threat to Jerusalem.
I will listen to this interview many times to be able to digest whats thrown in it.
Thanks a million for this great interview!
EMPIRE i meant and not IMPIRE.
Glad it wasn’t Umpire….
lol
Great interview!
Would someone kindly summarize the main findings and recommendations in his full presentation? I’m unemployed and can’t afford to buy subscriptions and reports. I know some give out some free information, but most want money for their actionable advice on what to do specifically in hard times other than buying gold for insurance. All your speakers sell information and/or financial products and services and more specific clues or hints as to what as to what to do would help many people.
Kindly, can you be a little less in awe about how clever and successful your speakers are? Happy to hear what respected speakers have to say, but don’t go overboard in praising their cleverness and successes in a system that is increasing failing the many. Given the way the internet works, your interviewees are already rewarded just by appearing on your website. The more hits and links, the more money made from Google ads, in addition to the money made from selling products and services. Like with traditional the more people you reach the more money you make even if your sales conversion rate is low as with junk mail. I know nothing is free, but the cost of the subscriptions and reports is not within the means of the many people who come onto your site.
It would also be good Greg if you would consider interviewing people occasionally who are prepared to offer practical and free advice. I know your speakers what to make more money, but many of your speakers are already very wealthy people.
Thanks for alerting people to the many grave problems but please also mention the good things that are happening too. You look tired lately in the videos and hope you are in good health. Be positive and stay healthy!
Important to praise the Lord above all!
Jude 1:25 All glory to him who alone is God, our Savior through Jesus Christ our Lord. All glory, majesty, power, and authority are his before all time, and in the present, and beyond all time.
Greg,
Road to Hagia Sophia is paved:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/12/ukraine-crisis-donetsk-region-asks-join-russia
“Ukraine crisis: Donetsk region asks to join Russia”
Greg,
Thanks for having Mr. Armstrong share his thoughts. However, his thesis is anchored to the US dollar remaining as the world reserve currency and assumes everyone will continue using the USDollar for commodity trades in terms of petroleum and gold. As Jerry mentions in his comment above the BRICS led by China & Russia are already contracting commodity trades in non-US Dollar assets. Also, the recent crude oil exchange trade between Russia and Iran of 500MM BOPD is a non-dollar contract. It also begs the question, “what does Russia, a net exporter of crude oil intend to do with buying more oil?” Answer, trade the oil in non-dollar assets such as the Ruble, Yuan, or other non-dollar currency. This is the “boomerang” of sanction threats past and present as promised by Russian leaders recently when Obama ratcheted up the rhetoric on Ukraine. Trust in Government is at an all time low for various reasons not the least of which are the constant obvious lies. The US Feds constant Dollar creation added to the infinite debt limit and spending by Washington will demand that BRICS & Associates will pull the plug on the US Dollar. It will be a quick and painful self-inflected wound by a Government seen by others as being on a suicide watch. The fat-lady will sing with the announcement of gold-backed currencies by China, Russia, Panama, & others. Ironically, the Chinese are doing their shopping for Gold, Real Estate & other tangible assets by spending their dollars before they pull the plug.
Stu
I couldn’t have said it better. You my friend have reality by the horns.
Still think your moneys safe in Banks? Think again.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/consumertips/tax/10819885/David-Cameron-Taxes-will-rise-unless-we-can-raid-bank-accounts.html
Aside from the Chinese purchasing assets from Banks involved in the Federal Reserve, the major financial connection inside the Federal Reserve runs from New York to England and the Rothchilds. What better way to have access to your money, than through the back door? Right Greg?
Housing Recover is a farce. The only construction in my area is for Student housing. I guess that’s the only safe real estate play these days. What happens when it’s no longer cool to pay 100K for a 4 year degree because you don’t need a degree to be a farmer, plumber, or garbage worker?
I am quite skeptical of Mr. Armstrong’s statements. I think the peripheral economies are very aware of the US debt issues and have been preparing for the collapse of the reserve system.
Its not how much paper money will buy gold, it’s what gold will buy when paper money ceases to be used as method of exchange.
Well I follow most of all these commentators and can see any of these scenarios folding out *IF* everything falls into place. That is way too complicated to compute, there are billions of decisions going on with the world. We have the internet now and information and knowledge transfers faster. The ability for people to learn about what is happening to them is increasing. It really comes down to what you want to bet on. I don’t think anyone here that implements wealth preservation strategies such as buying gold, getting out of the dollar(art, tangibles, RE), or prepping are wrong at all. Producing your own food, getting healthy, and investing for just a crappy period in history makes sense. Having to wait either 1 year or 4 years isn’t that bad. Just making it through this period of history in tack is what counts here.
Ugly’s formula for wealth or poverty….
Money kept = (gross income + interest earned – taxes) – (debt + interest paid)
Wealth versus poverty equals.
In lifetime
1. How much interest have you earned?
2. How much interest have you paid?
A poverty man pays interest, a wealthy one earns it….
I don’t know why people hate the IRS. They have simplified their tax code with just two questions.
1. How much did you make?
2. Send it in.
There are many great thoughts and intelligent commentors out here but I have to say that i like the farmer from NZ’s thoughts the most. Such clarity comes from taking in the fresh country air (not immediatley after fertilizing fields of course). Assuming htat the system has to play out in the manner in which we all believe, I would be in the camp that this guests raises many questions and inconsistencies with so much other information that we all seem to have come across.
The different perspective from your typical guests is refreshing actually. those of us who pursue the truth are indeed the minority. We find an allegiance and loyalty to eachother’s cause and views. But I often have asked myself that what if it doesn’t play out in the manner that we are all starting to expect based on the views of people we follow the most. After all, we live in a manufactured system. We are part of someone else’s game where true capitalism and truth don’t exist. Who is to say that this monetary system has to crash and a new one begins. Is it conceivable that it is manipulted into some evolved financial system that allows the manipulators to maintain control to the degree that they seem to want to? We issued debt worldwide to numbers that simply don’t exist in reality. these debts were issued with a key strokc, interest applied, and all of this a simple fabrication for the purpose of banks earning interest off the sweat and productivity of honest gullible people like many of us. Why can’t they just unwind the nastiest of the financial perils out there – eliminated with a key stroke in the same manner that they were created? Why can’t they just create conditions to keep on keepin on? How can we seriously be so sure about upcoming events in a fabricated system that seems to be planned, manipulated, and controlled so well by so few, for so long? Unless, the sheep wake up and there is blood in the streets without restraint. (NOte – Ukraine is not an example of revolution in my view – it seems manufactured and not the will of real change – otherwise the East and South would be on board and no one would argue that the government in Kiev is planted by external forces)
Greg:
I think Oracle 911 did a pretty good summary job but there a couple of other guys out there that agree with Armstrong on a longer timeline and using the cycles science. Larry Edelson with the Weiss group has been saying that we simply have to reach the turning points of these cycles before the real change occurs. He has done a good job over the years. As said by others here none are perfect but if you look at the big trends these guys can keep you out of trouble. I am better off for paying attention though I have been damaged too. I have thought all along that this is more a slow motion train-wreck developing. Like Jim Rogers who is as good as they get and I have seen criticized here, I thought it would have blown up years ago but it just keeps going. I believe the manipulation of markets does delay the fall. From what I have seen the cycles will not be denied mostly because the root cause is human nature. Odd as it may sound that human nature en mass causes us to commit the same mistakes and bring on the same miseries over and over ever so many generations. The War cycles are going to intensify for years and we should all be prepared and remain nimble. Best too all!
Greg
I took Mr Armstrong to task above abiut some of the things that he said that are obviously wrong. Blatantly wrong. I think he did that on purpose.
There are some “gold” nuggets in his interview. He said people are asking how to protect themselves and he is advising buying things of value. He said gold was a “mobile” asset and real estate is not. Might be wise to have both asset classes. Armstrong said there is going g to be buy-ins and that the wealth are getting there money out of banks.
Yes, Armstrong gave some information that is not, in my opinion, factually correct but it was so obvious that he had to know everyone would club him like a harp seal. I hope some of my fellow readers are wise enough to see the wisdom he is imparting in addition to the errors.
He barely passes the grade. I like his writings and some of his commentary, he brings out interesting points but according to the aggregate consensus, he’s incorrect and doesn’t acknowledge the true state of the situation. I have to say this interview was a bit depressing.
Evil moslems kill 50 Christian boys and nothing in news. Girls are taken and its a big deal. This country and administration devalues males. And they put forth the myth that men and women are equal. Only in the eyes of God are men and women equal. The truth is God made us different and unequal. The very idea that women can do a forced march with a sixty pound backpack is laughable. Can some women do it? Sure. Can 10% do it? Hell no. They dont have the upper body strength to pick up a wounded comrade. Its not bigotry…but the truth is unspoken and considered bigotry. When facts become irrelevant you get a government of liars…justice like we have now. Does a country that murders a significant portion of its children deserve to exist?
And how about those Satan worshipers at Harvard? Theres no difference between them and Islamic terrorists. Neither worship the One True God.
And yes, women can do a lot of things men are ill suited for. Men and women compliment each other. Thats why God designed it that way. Two halfs when joined are greater than each separately.
One of my university degrees is a B.A Arts (Humanities) where my major was Ancient History of Greece and Rome ( Classics). We were always taught that the eventual fall of Rome can be summed up in 3 “simple stages,” rather then boring you with a complex detailed account ( Excluding the led poisoning theories and complexities of hired unpatriotic mercenaries and strategic mistakes in guarding its boarders against the Barbarians etc.. One over-simplified answer as to why Rome fell, would be 1). Over stretching her armies and military capabilities. 2). Moral and ethical decline of the Government. 3). Economic turmoil. Martin Armstrong seems to give a statistical breakdown of how the future “should” unfold based on historical calculations and stats. Although statistical analysis should always be factored in to an equation, it is not the be all end all. It is too dependent on interpretation of the data in most cases, however, stats and other historical data can be a valuable addition to throw into the mix, when trying to understand complex situations. Great interview Greg, we need a variety of interpretations and opinions, and not just different people saying the same thing; as you do a great job in this area ! Thank you for being so fair as to allow different viewpoints and open discussion !!
Derek
“lead” poisoning …not “led” sorry typo
Thanks for this great interview Greg. I read MA all the time and follow his work with interest, I try to absorb some of the nuggets of wisdom he often leaves lying around e.g. here are some examples I have discerned…
“CYCLES” – everything is linked and moves in cycles, (like the Lion King, circle of life!!), and therefore the Butterfly effect is very real.
“CONFIDENCE”, or sentiment is key, without it nothing will rise and we are part of and need the flock of sheeple, even if on the edge!
“TAXES”, govts are greedy, thieving, myopic, nitwits with virtually little or no business experience and yet who sheeple put in power to spend our money unwisely
“GOLD is a HEDGE” and offers some protection against the idiocy of TPTB
“HISTORY” teaches us lessons which we ignore at our peril
“CONTENTMENT MAKES YOU COMPLACENT” or fat & happy as MA states. No chance of rebellion when plebs are well fed and pampered.
“WELFARE” is a luxury few societies can afford for long.
“GOVT” is there for it’s own benefit, NOT the citizens
Just a few! Whether or not you agree with everything MA says, he is certainly thought provoking and offers an alternative viewpoint worth listening to imho.
Thanks for bringing him on the site Greg!
Hi!, Patrons Of USAWATCHDOG.COM:
My perspective is somewhat different evidently? Our Lord & Savior once explained to His disciples that, when they heard of wars and rumors of wars, the end was not yet. What could He have been meaning? My belief is that He asked those who heard Him to fear not and to ask that they may receive; that their JOY might be full. He is telling me thereby that OUR Heavenly Father created OUR nervous systems not for fear but for JOY and that, until we as His children have received fullness of joy, His answers to OUR human conditions are not yet met. War, famine, and even todays’ drought conditions are not conducive to JOY are they which means the time and conditions for JOY are not yet manifest but they will be sooner or later? For my nervous systems’ relief that’s my belief for whatever it’s worth. In the meantime I listen to what Greg has for US on OUR way to knowing more about how to win OUR JOY ASAP and I therefore appreciate USAWATCHDOG accordingly. JOY is the answer we can’t appropriate from OUR Drs. or OUR pharmacies either but OUR Lord & Savior means for us to enjoy it ASAP!!
RUSS SMITH, CA. (One Of Our Broke, Fiat Money States)
[email protected]
I need some joy! Think a half liter of good German “stark” beer, a good book and some soft light classical music will do the trick.
Hello Greg, maybe I missed it but here is the skinny on Mr. Armstrong.
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/ex-adviser-out-of-jail-after-11-years-including-7-for-contempt/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0
I’m not discounting everything Mr. Armstrong is saying and I don’t like to judge a book by its cover but this guy had my BS radar blaring Danger Will Robinson, Danger!
Thanks Ken.
My antenna went up to.
It’s hard to tell just who is the scumbag here after reading some of the links in this article….is it MA, the judge(s), Republic Bank, HSBC, the government, or maybe the whole bunch of ’em. Ho Hum…same old stuff…….it’s getting so bad I am not sure I even trust myself !!!
LOL!
The way Martin’s eyes were always darting about the room and rarely looking at the camera would suggest much of what he says he knows to be a lie. It’s classic body english when one is lying.
Or its a sign of learned self-preservation paranoia from someone who has been in an environment where one small lapse of awareness will lead to serious injury or death. While I discount a portion of what Armstrong said (as I do Jim Willie, Sinclair and everyone else presented here. I judge all info and perform my analysis), I view Armstrong’s mannerism thru the lens of his life experience which you are failing to.
“Firemen are fantastic at putting out fires all over town, but Heaven forbid a fire breaking out at the station” (Nivek)
I like this Philosopher, and this interview….. 😉
Kevin
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/dhs-secretly-allowed-suspects-with-terror-ties-into-country/
The TF Metals Report’s Ferguson tonight compiles evidence that Switzerland’s gold reserves were the crucial ammunition for the gold leasing that has driven the monetary metal’s price down since 2011. He concludes that the Swiss gold now is gone, replaced with irredeemable paper claims. Ferguson’s commentary comes as “An Open Letter to the Good People of Switzerland” and it’s posted at the TF Metals Report’s Internet site here:http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/5731/turdville-love-open-letter-good-…
And this from Dr. PCR:
Some country or countries, unknown at this time, for reasons we do not know dumped $104 billion in Treasuries in one week.http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/05/12/fed-great-deceiver-paul-craig-roberts/
and this from Admiral Sprott:
Too much gold is being refined in the West for it not to be coming out of central bank vaults to feed Asia’s huge demand for the monetary metal, Sprott Asset Management CEO Eric Sprott tells Sprott Money News in an eight-minute audio interview here:http://www.sprottmoney.com/sprott-money-weekly-wrap-up
The first link above should be:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/5731/turdville-love-open-letter-good-people-switzerland
This is something Martin Armstrong couldn’t tell you.
http://www.secretsofthefed.com/deadline-reached-global-bank-partnership-r-s/
The Banks have linked their information systems with the IRS.
Hmmmmm….I wonder why the government needs to know what’s in your Bank Account? Silly me. I thought that was my money.
Jerry. As I understand FATCA it is to stop offshore bank fraud. However it is allowed to be advanced to local banks also. This will be the nail in the coffin to the world dollar. Banks that do not comply will have a 30% extra tax applied to all there transactions in dollars. Starting July 1st. Craziest law ever passed .
http://youtu.be/appsjRuXwZs
FATCA explained in video
JC,
This is worse than the NSA recording, reading, etc everything. Its damaging small businesses in the USA while the big boys flourish. Its another loss of freedom in the name of the “public good.” It should be repealed along with NDAA, ACA, the consumer protection bill that gives government access to everyone’s bank and credit card accounts.
I read 500’s Free Beacon article about Armstrong. Lots of interesting stuff. There are zero facts to work with here but I know a little about this subject. Rule #1 Do not Piss off the Federal Judge. #2 Do not hire a lawyer that the judge is already Po’ed with like maybe he did the judges best friend’s wife, etc.. #3 That the NY Times is connected to this article, thumbs down. #4 Since Fed Prosecutors worth a dime have no trouble putting people in jail if there is any evidence what so ever or even the smell of evidence; they had nothing on him. Pretty amazing! #5 All they could get after seven years in the slammer is a plea to conspiracy to pee on the corner of the Federal Building, day or night doesn’t matter????? Give me a break. #6 It is certain they watch him go to the Bathroom and record every sound and smell every sniff. if they think he actually has that kind of gold. #7 If he has even a proverbial pot it better be in another country and in his 14 grandkid’s name who is a non US citizen. All possible humor and levity is intended here! I cannot blame him for a few furitive looks to see how many recording lights are flashing.
Greg
Sometimes going organic isnt the best
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NUCLEAR_REPOSITORY_RADIATION?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-05-13-14-03-40
Funny
http://houston.cbslocal.com/2014/05/13/gun-store-sign-i-like-my-guns-like-obama-likes-his-voters-undocumented
IMHO this is just another guy with an opinion. I’ve read Martin’s writings for yrs. Read a hundred other’s also……. So here’s my opinion, as I’ve read and studied the markets, economics, and politics for decades myself………no way in hell the “turn” waits for 2016. The petro-dollar, which is what everything hinges upon, will face serious opposition (selling) this yr. The ramifications of which will wake up even the blindest sheeple…..Despite Martin’s beliefs the worse will begin here in the US. Here is where the petro-dollar has made life easiest. Here is where it will be felt the most……I also disagree with Martin’s opinion of Europe. That is because I believe The US, and all it’s states, are in far worse condition (debt). Debt that is hidden in accounting schemes. A GDP, that if reported correctly, without a gov massaged inflation rate would place us in a depression we never got out of. We won’t even get into all the other weekly gov reports(lies) that are pure deception……Might I remind your readers that the accumulated debt of the US is almost equal to the rest of the planet……..As an aside, I tire hearing these so called professionals telling me how China is in worse shape (including Martin). We have more debt, they have more gold. We have more debt, Russia has more oil…….Not really hard to understand.
Smart comment Jeff. Come back again.
Greg
Good points. That is why I feel the Stocks and Pensions will feel it before the Banks. Think about it. Where can you dissolve $5T in wealth in a hurry. In Banks or in Stocks?
Well reasoned and Well said. Nice job separating the gold from the dross. You appear to have used what is called “critical analysis” or “critical thinking.” From what I can tell, this has been replaced in schools with “emotional thinking” which is not based on facts but on how you feel or how you are TOLD to feel.
The only thing I suggest you add to your calculations is that Obama and the Democrats in control will do ANYTHING in their power, regardless to its legality, to keep the wheels from falling off this Yugo economy before the 2016 Presidential election contrasted with the Obama administration’s loss of influence and power when/if the Republicans take control of the Senate.
This economy is so taunt that I fear it will be brought down by some little old lady deciding to save a buffalo nickel instead of spend it. I look forward to your future posts
hard to take someone anyone seriously who says, “not really hard to understand” when speaking about economics.
It seems as if everyone heard the interview without a problem. As for me, when at 14:34 you asked about gold, the interview ceased playing despite numerous attempts and on different computer platforms. Each time I hit the start button it would turn instantly into a pause. This happened with the previous report also.
Mr. Armstrong is feeding his SUPERCOMPUTER SOCRATES with all the available official data.There comes his “wisdom” from.
Socrates dont lie and is without bias, he says.
What about this data?
They are ALL massaged and rigged.The data is lying.
So what is it worth?
Mister Armstrong has a “War Model”? Come on, don’t make me laugh. Wars aren’t just caused by economics, in fact, there are many other features. They are mainly religious, ego driven, pissing matches, etc.
I think he has some interesting points however it seems that everyone claims to have predicted one or all of the following:
1) the 1987 stock market crash
2) LTCM explosion
3) the dot come bubble bursting
4) the 2008-09 financial crisis
Also, he touts that gold only goes up when people don’t trust the govt. and is a bad inflation hedge. Really? How about 2002-2008? Where was the mistrust of govt? and what about inflation in the 70’s? The fear of inflation and its uncontrolled effects are precisely what caused gold to surge (my opinion of course).
In the end, timing is a fools game, but one that we seem to love to play. Myself included! My personal guess is that gold starts to really go up this fall as inflation starts to take hold. This is based on upticks in bank lending and inflation showing early signs. Gold will most likely rise to new heights but not due to the mistrust of govt that Armstrong speaks so adamantly about.
Based on published accounts printed before Black Monday and the Rubble collapse Armstrong called these trends before they happened. I don’t go by claims, I do the verify thing.
Fantastic interview. I always thought they could keep the system going until the later part of the decade. 1987 Black October, LTCM 1998, GFC in 2008. These financial disasters also take place around the later part of the year, September or October. The system could go nuts tomorrow, or ten years from now, I don’t know, but people should have a back up plan if they are retrenched.
Armstrongs comments on empires not dying by hyperinflation & using Great Britain & Rome as examples is misinformative . Neither Britain or Rome were on fiat currencies so the comparison is apples & oranges.
Interesting to look at this months later. Seems most of the vitriol here is based on Armstrong not being a total gold bug. Interesting that he has been right about the dollar. I made money with Armstrong in the 1990’s he made a couple specific calls way ahead of time that proved “spot on”. That being said getting his head stomped in prison has messed him up. He now gives mile wide bullish and bearish levels and now mixes in “phase transitions” (where things go in the opposite direction of the original prediction) which confuses his work even more. 2015.75 has been a big date for him for years we’ll see….