Oil Derivatives Explode in Early 2015-Rob Kirby
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release)
Gold and derivatives expert Rob Kirby thinks crashing oil prices are going to lead to a 2008 style financial meltdown. This is not a maybe–a market explosion is going to happen in 2015. Kirby contends, “Oh yes, without a doubt, it will. It must because the income crude oil sales generate are used to pay the interest on the debt. . . . If you have a mortgage payment of $5,000 at the end of the month and you only have $2,500, you have defaulted. That is the position they are in right now. We just need to wait for some coupon dates to come and go because these guys won’t have the money. They don’t have the income.”
Kirby also thinks what is happening with oil prices being cut in half in a matter of months is no accident. Kirby explains, “I look at what is transpiring in the crude oil market as yet another engineered or financial trickery on the part of the financial elites. . . . What this breakdown in the crude oil price is going to spawn another financial crisis. It will be tied to the junk debt that has been issued to finance the shale oil plays in North America. It is reported to be in the area of half a trillion dollars worth of junk debt that is held largely on the books of large financial institutions in the western world. When these bonds start to fail, they will jeopardize the future of these financial institutions. I do believe that will be the signal for the Fed to come riding to the rescue with QE4. I also think QE4 is likely going to be accompanied by bank bail-ins because we all know all western world countries have adopted bail-in legislation in their most recent budgets. The financial elites are engineering the excuse for their next round of money printing . . . and they will be confiscating money out of savings accounts and pension accounts. That’s what I think is coming in the very near future.”
On the economy getting better and the upward revision to GDP of 5%, Kirby says, “The official data is inconsistent with what you can empirically observe going on in the economy. The economy isn’t doing well, and in addition to the economy not doing well, the U.S. government, for all intent and purposes, is insolvent. Why bonds would be rallying against a backdrop of an issuer that is insolvent is beyond anybody’s fundamental understanding, but fundamentals don’t count anymore in our markets. . . . We don’t have markets anymore; we just have interventions. . . . This financial engineering is all a hallmark of communism or central planning. Central planning has a track record of failing.”
On central banks, Kirby says you need to look beyond the Federal Reserve. Kirby says, “When you are looking at the extension of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency . . . you need to look at the Fed, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank. One or the other has been printing since 2008. The Fed can say we are not printing for 6 or 8 months, but really, what they have done is pass the baton to the Bank of Japan who has been printing like hounds. They are printing fiendishly. All they have done is picked up where the Fed left off. . . . As sure as God made little green apples, we are going to see in the very near future a made-in-America financial crisis regarding this shale oil junk debt. They are going to use that as an excuse for yet more money printing from the Fed. This is the path we are on, and it will continue to be the path we are on until the whole bloody mess collapses.”
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Rob Kirby of KirbyAnalytics.com.
(There is much more in the video interview.)
After the Interview:
Rob Kirby has some free information on the home page of KirbyAnalytics.com. There is much more for paid subscribers. Subscriptions for Rob Kirby’s analysis costs $145 per year. Click here to go Rob Kirby’s subscription sign-up page.
Greg, any chance you can get Catherine Austin Fitts or Jim Puplava on to discuss the oil price drop? They were both very bullish on the US economic recovery due to the shale oil boom, like to know what they think now ????
Jim Willie has always been skeptical of the fracking boom- is he coming on soon?
Catherine was right so far calling for a slow burn, I too, am also wondering if she has changed her outlook due to the bust in fracking but with black markets are still going strong
Harvey organ on the list by any chance? he made a bold call that didn’t come true for end of 2014
Doesn’t matter what they think Harry, they have now been proved wrong, and the Bakken boom is over.
Hundreds of folks in my area are slowly streaming home as the rigs and price shut down. Folks that have gone to work without fail for 5+ years or longer have been instructed NOT to return. As rigs and price shut down, infrastructure will shut down. Communities that were bust, that went boom, will return to bust…only much bigger and further in debt. Most of these folks will return to a job that pays 20 maybe 30% of what they were making. Hope they were able to put away some money for the rainy day that WE are about to experience. Rob pretty much summed up what paid for ‘America’s chance at oil independence’.
No, drilling won’t stop completely but the co.’s with very little or no debt will look for the next sweet spot. Word is that north-central Mt. is next.
Imo (nothing personally directed at you), the only thing that Fitts had going for her was her coat-tail association with Michael Ruppert…a real whistleblower on these bastards who has final found peace from them and far more importantly for himself…hell…Greg might as well get Rush and his buddy Hannity on…they’ve been just as wrong. Only in America can you spew msm/divisive crap and be paid 50 million a year…and worse millions of people listen and believe it daily with the interruptions being buy more corpco products.
It is snowing peacefully here, think I’ll go out an split some wood…I wish you all that same peace while we still have it.
Hello lastmanstanding how are you doing over there.it’s me Kendall Lamberts from Facebook
jerry, sig, pfi, st lau, donna, nc gal, jeffl, al, art, lastman;
Ted Cruz’s wife is a Goldman Sachs VP and CFR member
October 22, 2013
The establishment specializes in the old fashion bait-and-switch. It knows the people are sick and tired of government as usual and they want change.
Obama was billed as Mr. Hope and Change. But once installed in the White House, he immediately continued and expanded the Bush agenda, that is to say the agenda of the political establishment. Barry, like his predecessor, is little more than a frontispiece, a teleprompter reader for the elite.
Now that we’re fed up with Obama, it is time for the next round of phony change. That change will likely be represented by reformulated Tea Party Republicans Ted Cruz and Rand Paul.
“The Republican establishment despises Ted Cruz. And that’s great news for the senator from Texas: It’s the most prominent sign that he’s the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination,” the National Journal opined last week.
The faux government shutdown with its intense partisan squabbling and meticulously orchestrated theatrics provided Cruz and the reformulated Tea Party Republicans with a stage to present themselves as the answer to politics as usual. According to the script, a staid GOP dominated by the likes of old guard John McCain and John Boehner is afraid of Cruz and the supposedly renegade faction of Tea Party activists in the House. But it’s all show business.
Ted Cruz Heidi Cruz Goldman Sachs
Tea Party Republican Ted Cruz with his wife Heidi
For all his allure as an outsider, Canada-born Ted Cruz is in fact an insider playing a role similar to the one Barack Obama played back in 2008 when his handlers portrayed him as the hope and change candidate out of nowhere.
Brother Al–bail-ins this time, I’m afraid. Just make sure they don’t get that bacon! Best always. PM
the bacon is in a “HIGH RISK” situation, from——ME. 🙂
It won’t matter who’s in Congress. We’re in a full blown economic war with Russia that we cannot win.
Russia has never lost a fight. He is setting the cabal up for the sucker punch right between the eyes.
Here is an interesting tidbit from Reuters on Dec 30 – “Venezuela entered a recession in 2014, with the economy shrinking in the first three quarters” their “GDP contracted 4.8 percent in the first quarter … then it fell a further 4.9 percent in the second quarter and shrank 2.3 percent in the third quarter” … and during this “crash in the economy” the people holding paper cash money in their shoe boxes saw the “12-month inflation rate reaching 63.6 percent in November” … didn’t see gold fall by 63.6 percent in November!!!
I saw a report of 67% for venez. Also, sen. bob corker alis (corkscrew) is proposing a 12 tax increase on gas, get this, wait for it— wait—
Of course venez is not the US and perhaps things could be different here … so let’s say we get a crash as Rob Kirby says and Ackerman (beyond our comprehension) just happens to be right? Then what?
Here are some calculations (just in case) … one quadrillion fiat dollars exists in the world right now … but a lot of that fiat is just computer generated digits on a computer screen that can easily disappear in a hard drive meltdown caused by a derivatives implosion … so as Dent and Ackerman warn the only “real” fiat dollars that will be left when things collapse … will be “the paper bills and coins” floating around in the world in our wallets and pockets … now according to Fed’s (M0) statistics all the US paper bills and coins in the world adds up to about $1.6 trillion dollars. With 300 million Americans, each person in the US should therefore “fairly own” about $5000 dollars in US fiat paper dollars and coins (this is the “real” US fiat paper that both Dent and Ackerman say we should keep in a shoe box for the day when the whole house of cards collapses).
OK … now let’s see what price gold would be if the one quadrillion in electronic money “evaporates” and the only money left in the world after a crash is simply M0 or $1.6 trillion dollars. Dividing the 50,000 tons of gold in the word (1.6 billion ounces) into the “real” $1.6 trillion fiat US dollars in the world gives us $1000 “real” US dollars (in fiat coin and wallet paper) per ounce of gold.
A recent calculation as to “how much gold and silver” each person “should fairly own” is 10 ounces of gold and 120 ounces of silver!
Therefore … if someone wanted to hedge their bets and divide their wealth between “real” fiat (coin and wallet paper) and precious metal … the “evenly distributed” fiat (coin and wallet paper) on one side of the hedge will cost you $5000 dollars … and the “evenly distributed” gold and silver side of the hedge will cost you ($12,000 + $1920) $13,920 dollars. The grand total “for survival of the economic meltdown” comes to $18,920 US dollars per person (to create this hedge spread of your wealth). For a family of four(4) this comes to $75,680 dollars.
People who do this … will likely sleep a lot better through the coming crash … having $5000 dollars (in coin and wallet paper) right next to their 10 ounces of gold and 120 ounces of silver. The “hedge ratio” is about 3 to 1 … that is for every “one dollar” in “real” coin and wallet paper you put under your mattress … you should bury “three dollars” worth of precious metal in your back yard!!
If one does this hedge “then it doesn’t matter” who is right or who is wrong … you have your “fair share of the worlds money” … whether that money is defined as fiat (coin or paper in the wallet) in hand or physical metal in hand!!.
Paul; I fell asleep waiting for the video, lol old man nap.
Interesting stuff, I think their is way more gold in the world, if russia has 20k ton, and china has 30k ton, no telling how much India has, or SA, or Pakistan, thailand, or jim rogers, celente, and and eric sprott with all their holdings, OR are u just guess-te-mating, or, hypothecating. lol
I’m guesstimating about 50,000 tons of “available” supply (you can use your own numbers to calculate with).
According to Nick Laird, who has done some excellent research on the subject … 5,300 tons were been mined from the beginning of time to 1500 … another 4,700 tons from 1500 to 1850 and the rest about 159,466 tons between 1850 to 2014 … totaling 169,466 tons.
Now let’s take out 19,466 tons for industrial applications and 50,000 tons for Russia and China … and 50,000 tons for India, SA, Pakistan, Thailand, Jim Rogers, Celente, Eric Sprott and Me and that leaves only 50,000 tons for the rest of the world to try and get a hold of.
much, more, ie better written, and more informative.
strong point 50k tonnes of gold for the rest of us.
You lost me at “real fiat dollars”.
Between 1700 and 1940 Russia/USSR fought in 34 wars and won 31 and in 392 battle and won 279. We could say that Russia won 91% of her wars and 71% of her battles. Russia’s opponents included: Swedes, French, Germans, Turks, Poles, Tatars, Finns, Caucasians, Japanese, Chinese, Austrians, Hungarians, British, Italians and Central Asians.
In the author’s opinion Russia lost only three wars: the Crimean one, the Russo-Japanese one and the one against Poland in 1920. He considers that Russia won the first world war because no enemy ever stepped on any part of the Russian land.
vineyard of the saker;
I read that one today Al.
As an American citizen, we were always lead to believe that the Russians were bad. I have gotten to know a few locally…they are hard working, smart and no different really than you and I…only from Russia.
The last thing that we need in the US is a war against Russia started by a handful of inhuman garbage in DC.
It will not end well for any of us. Power is a very dangerous emotion.
Can’t eat either one. Store food 1st.
Speaking of Russia winning most of their wars … we need them on our side … as astronauts claim to have seen destroyed artifacts of very advanced civilizations on the Moon and US space probes have found similar evidence of destroyed civilization on Mars.
However, recently a most extraordinary and remarkable “moon” orbiting around Saturn called “Iapetus” has been investigated by US space probes … and the entire structure “looks artificial”. Some scientists are suggesting that this “moon” may actually be a space ship parked in orbit around Saturn and further that it may have once been part of an ancient extraterrestrial program by some “civilization” from another Star System to ”seed” the planets in our Solar System creating habitable worlds with a variety of warring life forms.
Be that as it may … but Iapetus definitely needs to be explored and investigated further … if indeed it turns out to be an interplanetary “seed” ship from the Stars … it should contain technology inside that will allow humans to travel to other star systems … and such an “Ark” would provide humanity with a handy “escape vehicle” to re-seed a new home for ourselves elsewhere in the galaxy (just like Noah of the Bible did using his Ark as an “escape vehicle” … then re-seeding Earth).
On that “judgement” day when we leave to find a new home among the stars … the only “seeds” we will leave behind will be the seeds of the evil bankers, industrialist and military Cabal … as we definitely don’t want to “mess up our new home in the heavens” with fiat money, pollution and wars!!
The God of this world*, during this present age, conned Angels to follow him to the end’s of the Cosmos and blind the minds of the unbelievers of the issue at hand ” Gods right to rule” also known as *Satan the Devil and the alien demon hordes.
◄ 2 Corinthians 4:2 ►
My Crystal ball NPR radio (funded by the not for profit (he,he) Rockefeller, Mellon, Ford, Luce etc. foundations) had an “expert” on this morning (I know he really was an expert because the commentator called him one) who said low oil prices are bad for all Americans because with low prices more Americans would be killed on American roads because more Americans can afford to drive, punch the gas when accelerating, and drive at higher speeds. He estimated we could lose as many as 9,000 more American brothers and sisters as a result of these low prices. I wanted to pay double this morning when filling up but h the “expert” gave me hope when he suggested raising the tax on gas. Thank God thousands will be saved by Congress and Obama just in time for prices to rise again. Hopefully (count on it) other governments will want to save their people too by this courageous act. Look because of (fill in the blank) all governments are broke and greedy just like their corporate masters. They feel they are behind on feeding at the trough of the poor and middle class. The tax hike should come soon because my crystal ball never steers me wrong. If one listens closely to NPR, it will tell you where you are headed years before because the funder’s are now and have been for some time in your face powerful. CNN & FOX are just the new National Enquirers for our entertainment.
Ironical that OIL Rich – Producing Nations like Venezuela and Russia come under attack from the US Banking Cartel/ US Foreign Policy for moving decidedly away from USD – Firstly with Venez. converting all their USD reserves into GOLD then repatriating their Gold from the vaults in London. Russia with its determination to avoid all things USD denominated. Both are now encountering mounting economic turmoil…which if it continues could have severe global repercussions.
Last few sovereign nations to try that trick (moving into an alternative settlement currency like GOLD) didn’t fair too well (Libya, Iraq, Syria) afterwards.
Russia has one ally they didn’t have – CHINA.
Welcome back, Greg. I hope you got some well deserved rest. This year will probably keep you very busy.
Rob Kirby a interview worth listening to as always .
They manipulate everything, then they can manipulate gold just like oil and countries holding tonnage will be 800 vs 1500 ounce? Did they leverage that gold? Does that blow that market? Dollar collapse after dollar soaring? If they want one world govt, think of it from that perspective, not anything that makes sense. They want to chip us, go all digital money, no currency (just like Sweden became last year), what if they bankrupt all of us and demand this before you can get food stamps, SS payments, you must be rfid’d like my dog is? They can cancel debts, they can do anything they want. I think you better buy some silver, junk coins, and food. I am buying food that does not contains symbols of a tax and going local. If you don’t, you will be left in the dustbin of history. Another great interview Greg…..
Here is a news tidbit reported 01/02/2015 … “US Debt Hits A Record $18.14 Trillion Fiat Dollars” … so every man, woman, child and baby in America each owes “someone” a debt of $60,000 fiat dollars.
Ever wonder who this “someone” is? … Yea, you got it … the Fed!! Now of course the Fed didn’t have the $18 trillion dollars to lend out in the first place … they just generated it out of thin air … and we sheep were given credit to buy things with their imaginary money … but in the end we owe all this hot air back to them in our labor or gold!! … seems like a very interesting economic model (slave and master) … no wonder the law of supply and demand doesn’t work anymore … why all markets are manipulated!!! …
However sheep don’t mind being sheared as long as the Fed can still make hay for them … so it’s just pretend that the arrangement can go on forever … however (a reset could occur) where the Fed may say they want “gold” back for the debt they issued.
At $1200 per ounce does every man, woman,child and baby in America have 50 ounces of gold each tucked away … to pay the Fed off???
IT AIN”T MY DEBT…..I’m not paying it. The Act of 1871 hijacked our Constitution and gave us a new one- in bondage as serfs.
It doesn’t work for me— every law since then has been un-Constitutional- every president, every senator, every congress person has been outside the original Constitution. We have no debts. We never agreed to them.
Rob, you should go one step further and say “how is capitalism failing when it’s non-existent?” How can something fail when it’s not there any more. (As Celente says) Capitalism died with 4 words “TOO BIG TO FAIL”
These Fascist Communists are going to see this economy fall on their face harder than Dirty Harry Reid’s exercise equipment!
Besides all of this, Happy New Year
This was a very well considered interview with Rob Kirby today, with a range of very sound arguments. A couple of comments:
1. $500 spot premiums on institutional gold — recall that a number of us had raised questions regarding the technical support for these premiums but also went on to say that we were of the view that premiums on institutional tonnage were being paid (but – not – on a sustained basis at a $500 premium. We felt that this was overstated). Mr. Kirby essentially acknowledged this as well today in his response, and we appreciate the clarification. The key issue is that there is still about $10 billion in gold (246 tons in inventory on the COMEX) — and approximate $27 billion in gold (709 tons in the GLD ETF, the ETF being of course less accessible than the COMEX to most institutions). In short, why pay $500 over spot — vs going to the COMEX. We acknowledge the negative GOFO rates now and the Fed’s loss of 47 tons of gold recently — which is clearly stressing the market, however, there is still “lower cost” gold to be had by institutions at this time.
2. Pervasive, all encompassing, manipulation — there was in this interview and in other interviews like Chris Powell’s (GATA) interview — the assertion that the central banks are manipulating “virtually everything” and holding the markets up. We would acknowledge that the Fed is buying government securities, engaged in multiple Q/Es, lease gold, etc. However, we suggest that they are not significantly playing in the futures market or the continued reason the bond prices are holding up. Regarding point 1 – David Marsh of the OMFIF group has been studying the central banks for years and indicates that their futures activity today is small and is an attempt in a low yield environment for 30-40 central banks to enhance their returns. He has a detailed report on this topic, which is available for purchase by the public. 2 – Regarding bond yields specifically, we believe that there is a “psychology” (not actual fact) now in the minds of institutional investment managers that the Central Bank’s will do “what ever it takes” to hold the bond market up, 2) These managers “buy” the official measures of CPI because “the other guy does” (e.g., most mainstream economists) and because “they have to meet bonus targets” and then they act with the view that inflation is nil — and a treasury at 10 years and 2.x% return looks good if one accepts this thought process or mental model. Call it the “Blue pill” effect. Does this matter? Yes — because it indicates that the stock and bonds markets really are working now with a very fragile net (consisting of muted ECB Q/E + Japan Q/E + a small residual amount from the Fed) and could crash dramatically. In a fully manipulated and synchronized environment, the markets could either stay at the same levels or rise forever. However, once the psychology changes — the downward move could be dramatic.
Thanks Greg. Overall, a well considered and well conducted interview.
” why pay $500 over spot — vs going to the COMEX ? ” Because there you will not get your gold, only a cash pay-off (to walk)………. Just another “soft” default…….. Not to mention the criminal element………… There is nothing that has not been corrupted.
Do you think the government will allow you to live independent of their utility monopolies? If you think so, try opting for renewable non-grid tied power and utilize environmentally friendly composting toilets and your own self-sufficient water supply. Today, those life choices could land you in jail if you live in South Florida. Take the case of Robin Speronis.
Actually, the COMEX (is independently audited. I believe KPMG is the auditors), and their inventory levels have been dropping significantly (~40 tons) over the last 3 months — so the gold is being purchased off the exchange and yes, some institutions are taking physical delivery.
If one would like to assume that everything is corrupt and manipulated, each individual is welcome to there point of view. We are just trying to present the best data that we can find after detailed analysis so that everyone can get to a fair view of the situation. Understand that there are individuals who want to believe that the Fed is corrupt, manipulating the markets 24 x 7, and that this manipulation is synchronized across all instruments and all central banks. While there are clearly manipulations going on (not necessarily by the Fed) — the data points are actually showing a different story, as discussed above. Thanks.
Just love Kirby’s matter-of-fact approach. No sensationalism or wild rants, predictions; just measured analysis. Although none of us knows for certain, it appears that the pus boil on the rear of the financial system is about to pop. Perhaps Armstrong will be right; 2015.75. Certainly, every day we get a new meme in preparation for the end game. The latest is the contrived police vs populace wedge being fomented by the elites to ensure that angry cops will not hesitate to mow down civilian protesters.
Thanks for sharing your perspective — that everything is corrupt.
Greg, Thanks for taking the time to write back. Yes, we agree that there are substantial problems in the financial services industry and in the relationship between regulations and the industry that need to be addressed. Regarding the specific points were discussing: a) CME incentives for central banks — Yes. The CME publishes in their 10K that they provide incentives. Conversely, Central Banks publish in their reports that they purchase securities for public review. For instance, the Bank of Switzerland states that about 10% of their reserves are for securities purchases and for enhancing returns. That is being transparent – not corrupt – in this instance. Currently, there is no real evidence that they are abusing the S&P futures market (not statistical or specific trade related). However, is their potential for abuse — yes. b) $500 premium paid for institutional gold — we have discussed this previously and the fact is that institutions are buying and accepting delivery of Gold on the Comex without paying a $500.00 premium — that is fact. Even Mr. Kirby (and no disrespect to Rob in anyway) softened his statements when you asked him this time.
Regardless — you also raise some very good points about a lack of business integrity in the industry that you are very worried about. I too, Greg, am equally concerned like you, on these matters so I write back so that we all collectively get our facts as close to correct as we can — in order to have high credibility and to also think through policy solutions. Thanks again and enjoy your weekend.
I got a new perspective, what if our esteem self righteous Congress help let the oil prices fall until they feel assured they can slap a big new federal tax on a gallon of gas 7 the American people won’t bitch much – then it may well rise. One cannot say that all the markets are rigged and then in the same breath believe the price of oil is not (now can they)? Just watch for the $50 floor to break and the tax & spend Congress will go to work in the back rooms; just a hunch, lived long enough to see Congress back stab our people time and time again; anyone believe in the 4th Amendment any longer, fair tails of a time of long ago. From the Western Front police state. ab
Let’s take the fairy tales back to the Second Amendment …
As everyone remembers the tale … when a lamb and wolf discuss “what’s for lunch”? The answer will be “mutton”.
However, when 300 million lambs armed with AK47’s and a few thousand wolves discuss lunch … the menu may well be a feast of “roasted wolf”.
Wolves don’t like to take such chances … they “pay off” our representative to pass “gun control laws” … and work feverishly “to reduce the lamb population” by all means possible i.e fukushima, viruses, nuclear war, … etc.!!
The wolf Cabal are deathly afraid of “armed sheep in numbers” … for when they open the Bible … they see these words from God:
[The lamb(s) of God will Take Away the Sins of the World” !!!] …
And they really begin to tremble!!!
Paul, I just used the 4th Amendment as an example of one, there are many that have been destroyed by the “political class” which means the Supreme Court as well – so, I guess, what I meant was just start with the first Amendment of the Bill of Rights and go down the line. P.S., love your comment. ab
Art, lots of moving parts including the oil story…… This oil drop will be another factor influencing (lower)tax revenues. Like a perfect storm it’s all coming together…….. By design but by who ? I could name multiple parties who have the motive.
Jeff, I can also think of more than one who have motive too. On second thought maybe Congress will be like a pack of wolves finding a deer carcass, a great opportunity that they cannot go to waste (raising the gas tax) with all their special interest to feed to keep then dining on their silver platters. All I know is things are not getting better for freedom, and one way to control people besides with the gun is with their money. Money is freedom, just look at the bankers of America.
You right on it Art. Right on top of there game. It is a sad day when we see these moves of control because we can do nothing to stop it. Freedom has been replaced with survival manipulation. The strong get stronger, and countries have become chickens in the nest. If one is not laying eggs just go to the next one.
Here are the facts. There were 126 on-duty deaths reported among all officers in 2014. There are approximately 1 million sworn officers between federal, state, county and local government entities (and another couple of million employees who are not sworn; that is, they are not officers and do not have arrest powers, such as dispatchers and clerks.)
This is a rate of fatality of 12.6 per 100,000. Sounds bad, right?
If you’re a logger, you have a fatality rate ten times that of a cop.
A fisherman? Almost ten times — 117 per 100,000.
A pilot? 53.4 per 100,000. Yes, really — it’s about four times as dangerous to fly a plane or chopper than be a cop.
The guy who puts your roof on? 40.5 per 100,000 — about three times as dangerous.
How about iron workers — you know, the guys who put up the buildings you work in? Yeah, those dudes. Three times the risk of a cop in dying, most from falls, being crushed by heavy materials or welding accidents.
Your garbage man has a risk of death twice that of a cop. Why? He gets hit by cars or crushed by heavy equipment (yes, it would suck to get caught in that trash compactor in the garbage truck!)
How about the lineman that repairs your power lines? Slightly less than double the risk of a cop, and of course the means by which they die are falls and electrocution, mostly.
Truck drivers? Close to double the risk, most from traffic accidents.
Farmers? Same risk, roughly; getting caught in a combine is a ****ty way to die.
Or you could just be a construction laborer. Your risk in that profession is materially higher than that of a cop (17.3 .vs. 12.6) as well but nobody cheers for you. Never mind that without said laborers you wouldn’t have a house or an office to work in.
So let’s cut the crap, eh? Being a cop isn’t particularly dangerous as occupations go.
Sworn officers are in fact officers of the court. Lying is unacceptable among both them and any organization that represents them. That means this butt-clown as well as the Patrolmen’s Benevolent Association in NYC and Patrick Lynch, their President. Pathological liars are worthy of the middle finger, not respect, no matter who they are.
Further, these organizations are not going to get any sympathy from me as long as we have cops arresting anyone for “DUI” when they choose to sleep off their alcohol in a parking lot rather than drive, nor are you going to get to claim “valor” without a loud pushback from people like myself as long as there is even one cop who reaches a settlement for his alleged attempt to create pornography with the intended target being solicited as a means to void an alcohol possession citation. That’s official corruption and if I pulled something like that I’d be prosecuted instead of being able to slough off the “settlement” on the taxpayers of the town.
Then there’s this sort of corruption:
It’s not a slowdown — it’s a virtual work stoppage.
NYPD traffic tickets and summonses for minor offenses have dropped off by a staggering 94 percent following the execution of two cops — as officers feel betrayed by the mayor and fear for their safety, The Post has learned.
So either 94% of the stops and summonses were never justified in the first place, in which case the entire NYPD is nothing more than a band of felons committing armed robbery by the tens of thousands a week or this “action” constitutes acting as an accessory to crime after the fact.
Either way these are not cops they’re crooks. In either case every single one of these “officers” deserves to be arrested and thrown into prison for decades; odds are it’s the first of the two possibilities, by the way, which means that this “action” is as close as you’re going to get to an admission of tens of thousands of armed robberies committed by the cops each and every week.
If law enforcement officers want respect they can start by deserving it and that means cutting the crap — including false claims of “outrageously dangerous” working conditions that in fact are less hazardous on a statistical basis than the guy who picks up my household trash, an immediate and complete cessation of false arrests on bogus charges and full prosecution of each and every member of such an agency who is alleged to have abused someone in the line of their duties.
Let me know when that happens and at that point my middle finger will be retracted — but not one second before.
Happy new year Greg! I love Rob Kirby. he’s great.
Greg I have come to the conclusion after watching multiple events unfold this year
( like the collapse of the ruble, oil prices plunging, and gold collapsing the year before) that what we are witnessing is a carefully orchestrated restructuring of the global economic system by a consortium of bank cabals that have imbedded themselves into the world banks. I wasn’t sure until recently, when I saw China audit its own banking system and then proceed to purge its bank executives . I found that fascinating when you consider that the western baking cabal essentially did the same thing a few months ago, by killing off some thirty bank executives. The main question is why?
Like I said this global economic take down is happening one piece at a time.
I found it no coincidence that the western banking cabal crashed the gold market just so the Chinese banks could fill up on cheap precious metals. Why would they do that, if the Chinese weren’t in on the deal with them to start with? Then you have to ask yourself, what’s in it for the Chinese? Why not just drop the dollar now by flooding the market with cheap junk bonds I think the reason is the RMB is going to be the next world reserve currency much sooner than the pundits think, and the western banking cabal wants to be in on it. But that’s just my opinion.
I also think that oil prices collapsing is just another tool used by the PTB to push this process along. Guess what the Russians are using for trade with the Chinese? RMB. In fact fifteen other countries have agreed to buy oil from Russia using swift currencies instead of dollars. Like Rob said, before this is over, collapsing oil prices is going to hurt us more than the Russians when these lending houses feel the bite of Shale oil companies defaulting on $500 Billion dollars in loans. The dominos’ are falling one by one.
IT IS ORCHESTRATED !!! GOOD POST. AL
did u see corker from tenn. propose a 12 cent gas tax. they see the falling prices, like blood in the water, that a-hole.
The game is rigged. Congress is just a kabuki show to make the American people believe they really have a voice. They don’t. Corker is just a paid puppet like the rest of Congress.
It sure looks to me like Russia is setting up a Euro Asia trade zone with the backing of China. What say you Greg?
Ok boys and girls. According to Goldman Sachs a 1 Trillion dollar debt default has just occurred with the collapse of the oil industry.
I did not find Goldman Sachs as saying that a 1 Trillion dollar debt default has just occurred with the collapse of the oil industry.
According to the links in the article, what Goldman Sachs said was that they “found almost $1 trillion in investments in future oil projects at risk. They looked at 400 of the world’s largest new oil and gas fields — excluding U.S. shale — and found projects representing $930 billion of future investment that are no longer profitable with Brent crude at $70”.
I read watchdog 2-3 times per week and find the
perspective interesting. I’m involved in the financial
markets so I like to read what others are thinking.
This current system is under going a transformation.
The end game, contrary to watchdog guests and
posters is still some time away. As long as confidence
in the dollar remains and the U.S. having military
advantage the game will continue. As one of my
bosses once said to me, as long as the music is
playing, keep dancing. As far as the Chinese having
the worlds reserve currency, no. Not until they can
develop a bond market on par with the U.S.
Gold will rise slow but is not enough on it’s
own to create the sea change everyone expects.
The military is only as strong as the government can afford to pay it. As far as the dollar being strong, my question to you is, what is it being backed by besides debt? I’m in the financial markets too ( I own three businesses) and I can tell you with 100% degree of accuracy, that the markets are rigged. Enjoy the ride while you can my friend. The rollercoaster is about to drop.
For you Louis.
And Greenspan has a PHD in economics,so what does that tell you ? So is everyone in the financial industry correct or are there winners and losers ?
It always has been a confidence game.
Lose confidence….. and they lose control.
China doesn’t get a World Reserve Currency until it moves away from its Communist Policies and Practices and develops a very Deep pool of a Very Liquid Bond Market.
You are correct …this can go on a lot longer than most expect. Simply because there is no alternative.
In the midst of a monetary crisis….heads of government and monetary authorities will be forced to arrive at a temporary solution. One thing they cannot avoid is social unrest in the interim period. They are expecting that and have planned accordingly.
The world’s monetary system is literally skating on thin ice. One crack and everything is exposed. That is not conjecture..it is reality and it is being hidden from the masses. Band aid solutions for severed arteries…eventually the patient bleeds out. The best way I can describe what is being done to remedy the problems of the world economies.
“What’s in it for the Chinese?” How about payment for the 300 million ounces of silver that the US borrowed from China and did not repay in 2013? The US gave the Chinese US Treasuries as collateral for the loan. CHeers.
I’m saying what are they waiting for? They can end this anytime they like.
Sorry sir, I didn’t understand your original comment. The Chinese could indeed end it at anytime, as you say, but it might hurt their investments. They have been buying tangible assets for quite some time now and trying to shed dollar denominated assets, chiefly, US Treasury notes and bonds. I believe that the Chinese have cut a deal with the US to allow China to accumulate precious metals on the cheap and the US is taking back US Treasuries as payment. The Chinese are not going to disturb their deal by doing something provocative like taking down the COMEX, at least not for the present. In loans to other countries China is demanding gold as collateral. Above all else, China wants its gold and silver and they are bidding their time to get it. The paper manipulated metals markets will continue on for now. There will be a day of reckoning, but it is anybody’s guess as to when that may happen. Perhaps it will come to pass when China finally dumps all of its US treasury assets. Cheers.
Orion What would happen if a cyber attack shuts down the USA grid ? I don’t study stocks this seems to me very risky considering the world want a global reset. There are many ways to accomplish a global reset regardless to who has control.
They’ve always had control. We just didn’t know it. He who has the gold always makes the rule. Surfs were taxed so lords could by gold in olden days.
Down goes the hammer! Oil drops below $50. a barrel.
For you guys that think the dollar is such a good investment, why don’t you go ahead and buy some more stock. Never mind that the lending houses are about to feel the pain of a 1 Trillion dollar loan default.
The debacle in oil prices is amazing; isn’t it? How low will it be allowed to go? I wonder. I know for sure that the Saudis have the cpability, by themselves, to take oil under $36 per barrel.
I’m hearing $40. a barrel isn’t out of the question.
Heads up from my inside source.
This attack was carried out by the Saudi’s as a (middle finger gesture) that they no longer support the western banking cabal and are about to form new alliances with Russia and China.
O.K. all you economic experts out there, what happens to the dollar if it is no longer backed with oil? Before you answer, know that the Saudi’s intend to be paid in gold for a new deal with the Russians and Chinese.
Just remember they had their gold stolen out of British vaults by the western banking cabal. This is pay back!
Jerry, interesting 2015 forecast over at http://www.kunstler.com
Thanks Lastmanstanding. Good Stuff!
…and another over at http://www.financialsurvivalnetwork.com with Andy Hoffman.
What 1 Trillion dollar loan default are you referring to?
According to my sources, the ripple effect of oil going below $50. a barrel will generate losses throughout the Oil Industry totaling 1 Trillion dollars. There are many subcontractors, investors, lenders etc. that is going to feel the loses. Not just the oil companies,
The House of Saud were happy when the masters were fixing the price at $110+ (using futures/derivatives/algos etc.)
What happened when the masters of the markets decided to fix the price much lower. Saud were not happy…they protest by saying “we will continue to produce at the same levels”. A poke in the eye of the western cabal. Retribution ?
Are the House of Saud really responsible for the price drop ?
Price can go to $30/Barrel and they still make money.
Who has the financial power to drive markets ..esp. the Energy Market.
It is not a simplistic Supply-Demand economic rationale which all and sundry are using as an explanation.
As I see gas prices fall every morning ( sometimes by 20 cents) I think about the Bloomberg article about Obama holding out the olive branch to Putin. And willing to greatly ease sanctions on Russia.
Why now I asked myself and so suudenly? Probably 1) EU is getting crushed by the fallout-as all legitmate experts said they would-
2) Our own last real economic growth sector is being destroyed so rapidly that we committed hari kari with no hope in sight.
EU officials clamoring over the Russian sanctions because its only destroying there economy. Meanwhile I hear of the Ruble collpase yet see no fear from Russia, Putin or any of their higher ups.
Now Putin is blatantly telling EU to leave US completely, come join us.
Essentially all Putin did was sit back do nothing and let his enemy committ suicide.
Bravo Vlad, check mate and very well played… you are truly a master!!
Spot on. Putin baited us into this one. Check back over the last six months of 2014. He was making currency swap agreements with the Chinese in anticipation of this move. The kickback to us will be tremendous. Americans are dancing at the gas pumps for now. But just wait. Its coming. The Saudi’s just tipped their hand with the recent attack on the Greek oil tanker.
Oil collapse is hammering the Euro.
For those paying attention, this is not a market correction. It is the beginning phase of global economic restructuring. When the smoke clears you will see the house of Saud standing with the Russians and Chinese, and with it the end of the petrodollar. The Saudis were making a deal with the Chinese in France back in October when the princes security guard was attacked by western cabals, Documents were stolen to thwart the deal. Add this to the US backing down in Syria, and their gold being stolen in England, and I would say our relationship is at an end.
Rob Kirby is simply top notch. I always end up listening to the interviews you do with him 3 or 4 times just to take all the info in. Great way to kick off 2015.
Now where is Jim Willie? Seems like he hasn’t been on in forever.
No, G. Edward Griffin, it is he who hasn’t been on in literally forever.
Jim Willie is a great guest and I agree he should come on again, but he has been on like every waking moment if you compare his frequency with the frequency GEG has been on USAWatchdog. Just sayin’. But I have good hope: Greg said he wouldn’t give up on getting GEG on.
I would love to see GEG and JW on again soon.
This would be great timing with the ‘audit the FED’ bill due to come before congress.
” Now where is Jim Willie? ” ……… If Greg had a “thumbs down” I would apply it. Just what rehash do you expect to hear from the Jackass ? I read thru his long (mundane) letters that are nothing new………. Again rhand, what do you expect to hear ? The last interview (forgot who) he bounced around subjects like the energizer bunny………. I’m sure my vote here doesn’t count anyway. But I threw it in anyway.
I enjoy the jackass stuff, i vote thumbs up. 🙂
Jeff L. Your opinion matters a lot more then you know. I read your postings. Celente, and Willie are great speakers, but new point of views are always thought provoking. Also do you think the 50% over spot could have something to do with location ? It cost a lot to move a ship.
Rob Kirby makes some valid points, particularly about manipulation. However, some of the premises he assumes in his argument are not valid. For example, he says,”‘The US Government, to all intents and purposes, is insolvent”. This is nothing near a factual statement – the US Government is far from being insolvent. Insolvency occurs “when an individual or organization can no longer meet its financial obligations with its lender or lenders as debts become due.” This is not likely anytime soon, irrespective of how inept or corrupt we think them to be.
The problem in the US and the west is not public debt, but private debt. IMO the next financial collapse will occur when private debts are unable to be paid, and the velocity of money continues to shrinks below some important point. This will destroy the real market, and no amount of QE can fix that, for maxed out borrowers will not borrow more. No amount of lower interest rates and QE can stimulate demand any further. That is why the Fed stopped it.
The initial QE’s were a one off; to inject solvency into the banking system, increase confidence in the system, inflate asset prices, and lower interest rates to stimulate demand. Typical of modern economic theory – however it foolishly ignores private debt loads. Inevitably, this diminished demand in a credit based system will be deflationary.
Emeth. In my opinion, private debt load would NOT even be an issue if the big banks would have stuck to conventional methods. Public debt came about when Shiticens, politicians and corporations found that they could vote themselves access to the treasury. (or whatever that old saying is.)
They found that it worked so damn good on a large scale, they offered it to the rest of us. Once the fed figured out that as long as they could print money out of thin air and there was faith in it, they could continue it infinitely…and here we are.
I would refer you to Steve Keen, Michael Hudson and numerous other non-Keynesian ANTI neo-classical economists who highlight the many ills of financial manipulation and the financialization of the economy. Their thesis is that neo-classical economists cannot fix the current issues and engineer a recovery because their theories do not take into account private debt levels, which is the real problem – for the heightened private debt loads is the reason why private borrowers will not borrow anymore and also why their is no real mainstream economic recovery in the west.
I have to strongly disagree.
You said – “Rob Kirby makes some valid points, particularly about manipulation. However, some of the premises he assumes in his argument are not valid. For example, he says. – “The US Government, to all intents and purposes, is insolvent”. This is nothing near a factual statement – the US Government is far from being insolvent.”
The official US Govt. Debt is approx. $15-17 trillion. Add to this unfunded liabilities from entitlements and you have a debt of more than $120 trillion.
US tax revenue is approx $2.3 trillion which makes a debt to income ratio of some 5000%.
Obviously the only way the US can meet its obligations when they become due without defaulting is by further borrowing or issuing more currency.
If this doesn’t fit the definition of technical insolvency for a sovereign country then nothing does!
Thanks Colin, the points you raise are valid concerns only if the figures you quote are correct, the way you see the numbers is correct and if there is a limited supply of funds available. There is no limit to funding when you own a printing press and when you are also the world reserve currency. That’s why comparisons to home/business finances are naive.
It took me about 30 minutes to find the figures (sources below). These are only approximate numbers for the USA (2014) –
Total Debt to GDP is 103%
Current Gov’t Debt is $17tn – of which 47% is foreign owned
Unfunded liabilities $46tn (future dated, not currently due)
Total of all obligations $63tn
Current budget deficit $500bn pa (expenditure over tax income for 2014. This has dropped significantly over past few years)
Interest on current debt is $431bn pa, averaging a 2.42% interest rate.
With tax revenue at around $3tn for 2014, all of this is quite affordable.
Contrary to popular belief, reducing the debt burden (i.e., lowering the ratio of debt relative to GDP) is almost always accomplished without running budget surpluses. The U.S. has only run surpluses in four of the past 40 years (1998-2001) but had several periods where the debt to GDP ratio was lowered. This was accomplished by growing GDP (in real terms and via inflation) relatively faster than the increase in debt.
Well it took me about 5 minutes to find this link and most of this data comes straight from the St, Louis Federal reserve – see link;
And yes to quote you – “the points you raise are valid concerns only if the figures you quote are correct, the way you see the numbers is correct and if there is a limited supply of funds available.”
I think you will find that the total debt you quote being 103% of GDP is in fact not total debt at all. The total debt that Govts. and central banks report to us sheeple is not real total debt.
Meaningful total debt for a sovereign country must include entitlements. These have to be added in as they are indeed debt unless the Govt. intends to default on them. Now if you care to find what true entitlements come to, I think you will find that my estimate of true total debt of $120 trillion is actually extremely conservative.
The other point I would like to make and I have mentioned it before on watchdog is that a debt/GDP ratio is a meaningless ratio anyway. High GDP is not a good thing unless it is what I call ‘good GDP’. It is like looking at a debt/turnover ratio in a business. What a pointless ratio to look at unless the turnover is ‘good turnover’ . If you have high ‘bad turnover’ in a business all it means is that the higher your turnover is the faster you are going broke.
Same with a country – GDP needs to be interpreted. What percentage is good wealth creating GDP and what is ‘bad GDP’ . A current example of bad GDP would be the fracking industry in the US. There have been examples of some extraction processes taking more energy to harvest and distribute the oil or gas than what was even harvested. If you include cleanup costs and environmental costs, not to mention ruining water resources this activity is a total and permanent disaster. Of course the main reason this industry has appeared at all is because of your beloved printing press which as you point out provides unlimited funding!
What is the point of all this – except to add to the GDP total!
Lastly you can bet on the fact that the $US’s term as reserve currency of the world will very soon be over.
Once it loses this status it will be lost forever.
The US will no longer have its financial hegemony weapon to hold the rest of the world to ransom. They will be left only with superior military power to indulge their bullying and hegemony and an economy and society in complete ruin. At this stage the military superiority will be short lived as well.
But by all means Emeth keep the printing press going flat out. Enjoy the wine, the music and the dance while you still can.
Thanks, although I appreciate your zeal, however –
The link you have quotes a figure that includes business and private debt, not gov’t debt alone.
Future entitlements are not the same as current liabilities. But I agree that they should be accrued for now – basic accounting, although Govt’s rarely do.
The govt’ is not printing money in the convential sense … this is a bit of a misnomer. It is accumulating debt at the moment.
The USD will not lose reserve status for a long time. I think most people misunderstand what this means, as it is really only a means of exchange that occurs electronically. The US does not benefit directly from these exchanges, only from having the currency base used.
Greg, thanks for the clarification. As I understand that bonds are debt.
Getting back to my original point, it is not the $17tn that is the problem, it is the $42tn in bus and private debt that is the issue. This is why there can be no recovery from demand and this is why the government will not be able to inflate it away. It’s way too large. It’s effect is deflationary … It has to be written down in value through some form of collapse and reset.
Thanks for the response, much appreciated. Yes, I agree, it will be rally ugly. I look forward to the new post and really enjoy this site. Well done and thanks.
Paul, I forgot to add the following taken from the link you provided –
Total US debt, including Govt, Bus & Private is $59.4 trillion (This is current debt)
Of that, $17 trillion is Govt debt.
That leaves $42.4 trillion in Bus & Private debt.
The article goes on to say that the problem is private debt, not govt debt.
” The problem in the US and the west is not public debt, but private debt ” ………. What ???? ” No amount of lower interest rates and QE can stimulate demand any further. That is why the Fed stopped it. ” ……….. What ???? QE was NEVER about the people. It was and is today (never ended) for the banks and to pay PUBLIC (gov) debt. QE has not ended. How do you think they keep those interest rates at zero ? Where does the money come from to finance/pay our debt ?
Like you it seems to me that gold bugs screaming about a coming crash are their own worst enemy … consider what is going on in the world … the Fed to hold interest rates down … creates new fiat money out of thin air … then uses this new fiat to buy bonds … the demand created for the bonds by this new fiat is what keeps interest rates down … but the greater supply of new dollars should be weakening the dollar … so other currencies are purposely made even weaker to keep the relative value of the dollar strong … to weaken their currencies foreign governments print more of their fiat money out of thin air … and again use this new fiat to buy bonds and keep interest rates down.
More and more fiat money being created on a world wide basis would logically make gold and silver prices rise in terms of the world’s exponentially increasing money supply … however “the expectation” of a worldwide crash where fiat money is destroyed by a debt implosion … keeps the price of precious metals down.
So we have a situation right now where the world’s fiat money supply can ramp up from one(1) quadrillion to one-hundred(100) quadrillion dollars … and because of the “threat of an economic crash” creates a low demand for gold!
In the old days a high supply of fiat dollars would create more demand for gold … but it seems the “threat of worldwide economic collapse” is nullifying the law of supply and demand with regard to gold.
Now … if gold bugs really want to see the price of gold rise … they should be using “reverse psychology” … downplaying the threat of a crash … saying the Fed seems to have things “under control with their exponential money printing” … that the US is far from being insolvent … and that “an economic recovery due to these lower interest rates is right around the corner” … people will then perceive that all this fiat paper being exponentially printed worldwide “will not evaporate in a debt implosion” and the law of supply and demand will begin to work again … gold’s price will then begin to rise (relative to the exponential growth of fiat paper in the world).
I agree with you that because of the US Dollar – almost everybody else is forced to print their fiat to keep pace relative valuation – in a race to the bottom. But I disagree with the idea that the value of Gold is kept down because of the threat of a world-wide fiat currency crash.
Precious Metals are manipulated and demonized for the purpose of keeping attention and faith in the Dollar. If you take into account that sovereign countries and Central Banks are acquiring and returning their physical Gold now more than ever: then this is a factor of demand. It is this – under-the-radar demand that makes Gold like Musical Chairs. Fewer chairs from now till the music stops.
When the music stops – maybe we will have a return to true price discovery; and valuation from someplace else than the Western Cabal.
Paul, as for Gold, I just look at the 10 year chart and see the unnatural rise in the price. Until that normalizes I am not interested in buying. They called oil ‘black gold’, and look what it is doing right now. One only has to see what happened to the price of gold in the 2008/2009 crisis to see how much it can fall. It is just another manipulated asset. The main advocates for gold accumulation are 1) doomsdayers, 2) vested interests and 3) doctrinaires who disagree with the existing system and want it to fail.
Emeth says…” The main advocates for gold accumulation are 1) doomsdayers, 2) vested interests and 3) doctrinaires who disagree with the existing system and want it to fail. ” ……………. You conveniently forgot Central banks, 1/2 the worlds countries (population)who have and always will save (wealth) in gold, and successful billionaires……. My calculations come to @ 4 Billion “doomsdayers”…………… My other calculation comes to @ 350 Million zombies that don’t understand ( the US, you included). I’d say the US and you are in a minority. I’d also say you have literally nothing to substantiate you ignorant claim.
So the majority – 4 bn by your estimate, have it right, and the minority have it wrong. Sounds like a bubble to me. Sure, C/Banks always follow the trend … pump and dump. Anyway, we’ll see, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future”
What an absolutely brilliant interview to lead off 2015
Rob nailed the whole chaotic situation and the root cause.
I love his analogy [9.40] of the financial situation and the holistic treatment of a medical problem. This is exactly my view and what I have been banging on about regularly, albeit to the annoyance of some fellow commenters.
I pick on the FED ad nauseam as many of you know only too well. The reason I do this is obviously the fact that they print the currency that has ‘enjoyed’ being the reserve currency for the world since WW2. This gives them unbelievable power to distort and manipulate all markets worldwide. It goes without saying that the other big western central banks especially BOE, BOJ and BIS etc. are a big part of the problem too. However the root cause of the impending disaster is da FED. As I have said in previous posts this institution is the funding source for the AAC and the AAC is nothing more than a monolithic terrorist organization.
I understand that a bill is coming before Congress early in 2015 regarding auditing the FED. This is America’s and main street’s big chance to expose this evil thieving institution and to begin the process of closing it down.
PLEASE AMERICA FOR THE GOOD OF THE WHOLE WORLD TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO RID YOURSELVES OF THIS CREATURE
It is late in the day. The iceberg lurks in the dark waters ahead. Nothing other than a change in course will avoid complete disaster. The FED and the central banking cabal of the world IS the iceberg.
This is what will sink us all if we don’t change course.
LAST CHANCE GUYS!
Many of us realize this Colin…thanks for your support.
With winter here, I have more time to surf the blogs…plenty of Americans, real Americans are pissed. All we can do is prepare for the day when they make their final, fatal mistake. Last time during the Revolutionary War it only took III%. The flesh and blood of those free men and women is still here.
Colin. Rand Paul is pumping up the idea of a audit, but not likely to happen.
Exactly right my friend. The Fed is pure evil and needs to be reigned in. Cheers.
I always like to listen to Rob Kirby, in part because he is so evidence-based, but also because he “calls ’em as he sees ’em.” No BS from this guy. He also clearly labels what is his personal opinion.
I would like to comment on something Lynn said above and put it together with Kirby’s presentation:
” They want to chip us, go all digital money, no currency (just like Sweden became last year), what if they bankrupt all of us and demand this before you can get food stamps, SS payments, you must be rfid’d like my dog is? They can cancel debts, they can do anything they want.”
From my perspective, everything is now lined up for the elites to take what is left to take, and a financial collapse will allow them to do just that. Those who have anything left will have it taken from them in one way or another and be made dependent on the elite’s social systems for their survival. Anyone who is not compliant will be eliminated, as part of the overall goal of population reduction. People who are stacking PMs might just find that there is no way to cash them in — either through overt controls/taxation or legislation allowing the elites to take them, too. The elites can do whatever they want and we can’t stop them ourselves. They will have their day to play, for now, but not forever.
MY prediction for 2015 is that we will witness a steadily growing tension and pressure for change rising in response to the repression and people recognizing that they’ve been “had.” I think it’s going to be painful, messy, and chaotic. That may sound grim, but I like to think of how forest fires make room for new growth to emerge from the ashes, even though the fire appeared very destructive when it occurred. How does one get rid of a cancer? Destroy the host.
I also expect massive earth changes during the last quarter of the year. In 1982, I was shown a signal earthquake occurring in the Midwest (epicenter appeared to be near Surprise, Indiana, part of the larger New Madrid fault zone) that will be the sign that that time is about to occur. It is during that period of cataclysms that all of this will resolve and each person will end up where they are destined to end up, according to God’s plan for their lives.
I can’t stand to listen to Catherine Austin Fitts, and will probably sit that one out.
Speaking of earthquakes, we had one yesterday. 4.9 and lots of after shocks. I have never paid much attention personally, but taking a few minutes every day to look at the USGS US and world maps is interesting…lots of reoccurring quakes lately on the major fault lines world wide. Lots of quakes in Ok and Kansas recently…Indiana isn’t that far away.
NC Gal with the grid down in 2 weeks sheep will beg to be chipped to get food, and water.
Another great interview Greg.
I have a favor to ask. Would it be possible to get Harvey Organ back on and ask him point blank “WTF happened”? His predictions were so far off the mark it puts his credibility in question. Your interview in which he made those December predictions was widely viewed and those who have been following Harvey were dismayed by his stance. Nonetheless, he continues to publish daily reports on SilverDoctor with very EYE CATCHING HEADLINES, but no real substance. I’m sure you’d be doing everyone a solid with a follow up. Thanks
Yes, indeed Mr. Kirby, I think you described it all perfectly – “Theater of the absurd!” And he is right, this is the only way to talk about the economy now. Nothing makes sense anymore and nothing follows any rules of economics or common sense. The only thing we know for sure is that it will end badly for lots of folks. All we can do now is stay aware, stay informed, prepare the best we can, try to enjoy our lives, and then buy some popcorn and sit back and watch the theater of the absurd play out until the final curtain.
If you’ve got the popcorn, come on by. I’ll do your laundry while we watch the show.
“When you’re born you get a ticket to the freak show. When you’re born in America, you get a front row seat.”
Interesting interview, and again just like when Harvey Organ was making his predictions I asked that you hold him to account. These predictions by Rob after all are pretty strong, and he too should account if they do not come to pass.
“All these Engineered event, are trickery by the financial elites.
The breakdown in the rigged oil price is going spawn another financial crisis!
Tied to the Junk debt from shale oil, ½ a trillion dollars (6 months of more QE)
When the bonds fail, jeopardizing the financial system again the FED will do QE4 and this time Bail in’s taking from peoples Pensions and savings accounts.”
Not sure where he lives but imperially speaking, down here in SW Florida it is BOOMING! There is construction/jobs everywhere.
Fundamentals don’t count… because they are using Financial Repression, which is why bonds are rallying. Capitalism is on hold for now, we have Crony Corporatism and Creditism. The central planning of the past failed by one country (Russia), this is true, but today ALL global CB’s are in it together.
Holistically…. when you have the flu to cure it you take Corporate medicine….Tamiflu…
Regarding the western CB’s swaps comment and hidden QE, what are all the Chinese/Russia Bi-Lateral SWAPS?
How big can the balloon get, that’s like asking how deep is the Ocean? My point they can continue to flood the world with currency.
2015 will be the year for the implosion?
No disrespect but John Williams also said 2014 would be the start of Hyper Inflation.
It all works till it doesn’t one day. We have had a flood of money with low interest rates be the ultimate source of funding for many things. The RV boom in our community has benefitted big from low interest rates and lots of available money. Should either thing be disrupted the shakeout will start.
Timing seems to be everything. I was almost always fundementally right in my commodity trading but timing was usually the demise of a trade. I think timing of global financial events have been disrupted by the bazaar actions of financial engineers. This has indefinitely delayed things that will touch society in negative ways.
There is “no limit” to the amount of fiat the Fed can create out of thin air to buy bonds to keep interest rates low … or to buy toxic derivatives to prevent an implosion … just as our universe “has no limits” … both can expand forever!
However one day in the near or far future … an accounting will be made … and on that “Judgement Day” all the “fiat sins” of the Fed will be balanced on “God’s Scale”!
God uses a particular element for weights and measures on his scale … Gold!!!
Gold will be put on one side of his scale to balance out the Fed’s fiat on the other side of the scale.
Now some like Harvey and Rob say “Judgement Day” is near … others are no so sure … but that Day will arrive … have no fear!!!
In the meantime all we can do is keep stacking!!
With all due respect, if there is a GOD that will balance it out, why do we have the imbalance in the first place? Also, why would GOD create a thing like FIAT money in the first place and how come religious organizations need to ask for FIAT donations, why not ask for Gold? Why do they need money?
Well … most people don’t have gold coins to throw in the basket … so they collect fiat and then buy gold … the Vatican has been doing this for a long time … I wouldn’t be surprised if they alone own 50,000 tons of gold. Remember man created fiat not God … God created Gold … all the church is doing is taking man’s money and converting it into God’s money!
“We don’t have markets anymore, just interventions.
” The income generated by oil shale is used to pay the interest on the debt…..at coupon time they can’t pay…..
….best analytical statements I’ve heard in a long time.
Thanks again Greg – best wishes to you and your family.
how to survive a police state without using a gun;
Allen Ols I liked the practical talk of the quick shooter. I took away thinking the wise will rule the rebellious. Everyday I pray the Father to give me the mind of Christ Jesus. Thanks.
jc, your welcome.
I hushed my guns, if u know what i mean. quieted them so to speak.
Blows my mind how hot the RV market is in Elkhart County Indiana (Rv capitol of he world) has been for several years now in spite of all that is going on economically. Mfg is booming, sales and inventories are huge. Where is the money for all this coming from as this was booming before fuel prices decreased. It is generally feast or famine in this business and it has been real good for several years now. I have seen times when you couldn’t buy yourself a job in this town. I wonder how close we are to the abyss. Is the current trend similar to a “blow off” as we sometimes see in commodities? Love to hear an expert comment.
A lot of the people I know with trailers have parked them. Could be the millennials would rather live in a trailer instead of the basement?
Maybe the government is prepping more FEMA trailers?
Jim, greetings from Scott Co.! When I repped Dietz Lighting (now Signal-Stat), I called on the RV trade and AM General. Also sold Dietz lanterns to the Amish trade up there. You are your own expert. You’ve seen it. The RV biz was trash in 2008-09, as you know. Please keep in mind that the easy money is what is moving automobiles in this country to the tune of 15 million per year. Sign and drive! Nothing down! Easy leases! Are you breathing and can you sign your name? You’re approved! Easy credit and easy money never last, and when the next contraction comes, all that stops, and the auto sales boom will produce defaults on a massive scale, just as the housing “crisis” did. For those with ca$h, there will be used-car bargains. Best always. PM
Do you think the government will allow you to live independent of their utility monopolies? If you think so, try opting for renewable non-grid tied power and utilize environmentally friendly composting toilets and your own self-sufficient water supply. Today, those life choices could land you in jail if you live in South Florida. Take the case of Robin Speronis.
Robin Speronis has lived off the grid, independent of the city’s water and electric system. A Florida court ruled this off-the-grid living illegal last week and has given Robin until March to connect her home to a municipal water line or face possible eviction. Further, officials in the city of Cape Coral have justified this by deeming Robin’s home “unsanitary,” citing the International Property Maintenance Code.
Read More @ LastMinuteSurvival.com
Brother Al, living “off the grid” gets into their piggy banks via tax avoidance. Can’t have that, can we? Best always. PM
Boris Berezovsky, the exiled Russian tycoon, has been found dead at his home in Surrey, news agencies reported on Saturday.
There was no immediate information on how Berezovsky, who was 67 and who has lived in the UK since 2000, had died.
Update -> Death was from hanging.
Boris Berezovsky death: Troubled tycoon’s friends say he would never have killed himself
Oligarch Boris Berezovsky was found dead on 23 March 2013 aged 67. He had survived various assassination attempts, including a bomb which decapitated his chauffeur. A wanted man in Russia, he lived in the UK from 2000 after his fortunes declined under Vladimir Putin.
The portion of the the derivatives monster that is energy based, contains a very large amount of those shale junk bonds. A case in point; As of October 16, 2014 traders (technical funds) sold 150,000 contracts of NYMEX crude oil futures contracts, equivalent to 150 million barrels of oil! With the recent crash of oil prices, those buyers have had their financial heads handed to them in baskets!
The shale junk bond market is said to amount to $500 billion. Then the amount of notional credit default swaps (CDS) derivatives stemming from that pool of toxic waste, will be many times that total! I smell another ‘Long Term Capital Management’ implosion, or another ‘Bear Sterns’, ‘Lehmans’ moment in the near offing?
Exactly what Rob is eluding to. The Wall Street/Washington DC fabrications and lies are becoming more and more preposterous with each MSM press release! The recent strength of the US dollar is unjustified by economic fundamentals and will not be sustainable for much longer.
The fuse has become VERY short! TBTF groundwork laid for derivatives explosion.
Just a correction in the ZeroHedge article. They wrongly states that taxpayers are on the hook for FDIC-insured derivative exposure. The only thing that is FDIC insured are deposit accounts below a certain dollar amount such as in certificates of deposit, checking accounts, money market accounts, savings accounts.
Now that does not mean that the taxpayer will not be on the “hook” for any future derivatives losses. Just that they are not FDIC insured. FDIC insurance does not cover other financial products and services that banks may offer, such as stocks, bonds, mutual funds, life insurance policies, annuities or securities.
Great pick to start the year off. A person can feel the indignation that Kirby has for market manipulations and interventions by the central bankers. However, the bankers have run up economic debt levels too high and allowed the Wall Street banks to base unbelievable derivative bets on the indebtedness of the economy leaving not enough room for normal market movement without bringing down the whole structure, hence total market manipulations/interventions to balance and then re balance the whole teetering structure as it sways back and forth. Kirby is absolutely correct with his very descriptive phrase “theater of the absurd”. Thanks for this one watchdog…time for Kirby’s friend Dr. Willie? anyway it’s time for another donate sure as heck.
The grace and peace of our Lord Jesus Christ be richly with your spirit Greg and for all who have set their hope upon Him and His soon return for 2015! And remember “Fear Not!!” for he has not given us a spirit of fear, but of power and of love and of a sober mind (2Tim 1:7).
What is going on with all the financial and societal manipulations echoes closely what transpired in the engineered Bolshevik revolution almost 100 years ago in Russia.
I watched, again, last night, Juri Lina’s detailed account “In the shadow of Hermes”. This is very heavy and exceeds what most suppose is even possible in the west, but there is real precedent:
It’s about time people see it as it really is and Kirby tells it as it really is. Sleep walking should be over soon, its hard to sleep when there is so much noise, and the noise cometh, the storm clouds gather, the signs point to some very wicked and wild weather geopolitically, environmentally, economically, a perfect storm to rouse all sleep walkers and heads in the sand as even the earth will tremble. Greg, thanks for posting this straight forward interview with Kirby.
In my view there are many things effecting this prolonged charade being played by Western Governments and banksters.
Yes, many in society are asleep an unaware. For that reason Western Governments continue to spew more propaganda than facts.
But make no mistake, Western Governments know what is coming and they continue to take steps to either prolong the lies or prepare themselves to crush the revolts that they know will eventually come when the masses no longer buy into the lies.
The best action one can take now is to continue building up your preparation for a prolonged state of chaos.
In closing…seldom are things as they appear to be.
Learn to recognize that deflection and distraction are forms of control.
Chip……. yes absolutley I can see the similarities everyone here should watch this as it is entirely possible and more than likely probable. I am slowly coming to the conclusion all the current events have been carefully planned and orchestrated
If you look at charts of the oil price, with respect to the last several recessions, you would find right before a recession, the oil price spiked and fell. This is the current predicament we are in. Many of the jobs that were created after the 2007/8 recession were in the US energy sector. In my local newspaper I read an oil company was warning the state that they were going to lay-off 700 oil field workers; the company blamed the low oil price. What about all the people who went to the Dakotas to find work in the shale boom? We are statistically due for a recession, which happen every 5-7 years. The FED and the banks that own it can throw all the money it wants at oil, but they cannot fool nature as Mr. Kirby said. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves and is in a deep recession. The Venezuelans are even selling their own food stuffs, such as rice and beans. Probably this decrease in the oil price will allow oil to stay in the ground while we all try to change the current corrupt dollar system and allow us to have oil when the new gold trade system comes. China may be willing to buy oil related companies while the price is down, using US Bonds of course.
The US FED/banking system can print all the dollars they want, but it will not do much. As inflation and/or prices increase many people use a credit card, which leads to interest debt, or decrease their standard of living in order to save. Recent surveys found that 20% of people under 30 are living in or near poverty, while another found people in the US are living pay check to pay check. How is the decrease in oil prices going to help them when prices of other necessary goods such as food is rising. For instance, when I bought 5 dozen of eggs at Costco 5 years ago, the price was between $6-7. Now when I go, the eggs are now $13.20. The middle class is becoming poor. Financial insecurity is becoming or has become common. Mr. Kirby talked how pension funds will be confiscated. I think the first ones to go are federal government employee pension funds. How will top military brass react?
With all due respect, I believe Mr. Kirby is wrong about a war with Iran. The US needs Iran for multiple reasons. ISIS is an enemy of Iran. The US needs Iran’s help to support Iraqis fighting ISIS. Iran does not want ISIS near their border. If the US wanted to go to war with Iran, then Israel would have striked Iran with the aid of the US. The US and Iran are still negotiating on Iran’s nuclear power program. Iran has a military alliance with China, Russia, and other countries. Iran trades oil for gold with India. Japan and other Asian nations get oil from Iran. If anything the US is isolating itself from the world as countries are using the Dollar less and less in trade transactions.
Caught a clip of Peter Schiff on Fox talking about how low oil prices will affect the US fracking industry. The Fox host suggests that fracking can withstand oil prices as low as $40/bbl and Peter emphatically refutes this. As Peter tries to explain his point, the satellite feed gets cut (if you look closely, you can see the picture fades quickly to color bars – you’d probably see some picture noise or an instant cut out, not a rapid dissolve to the color bars). Never seen such a clumsy, blatant attempt of suppressing information, though it goes on all the time. It’s almost funny, and I think the host was trying not to laugh.
Johnnie that was a network switch off not a drop satellite failure. The screen read the switch. Wow how rude. Thanks for posting this.
I concur with Rob’s meme of Financial Engineering – Central Planning – Communism. There is no conspiracy theory there…it is fact. I have been waiting for this day when someone would come forward and call this for what it is.
The fact that we cannot have “free” markets or capitalism to resolve the disconnect not only lends credence to the theme…..it puts it up in lights and quashes any concept of reality.
I have made the point on several occasions (esp.on this site) that Communism is what we are dealing with. It is the Central Planning (as Rob states) that is ailing us.
Rob made a lot of points but he needed to go one step further. Identifying the problem doesn’t provide the whole picture…. we need to understand the WHY !!
Financial Engineering in the case of Oil – what brought it to $55/Barrel.
Financial Engineering in Gold/Interest Rates/ Stock markets.
Have we really ever had free markets …when they (Banksters) have always been able to manipulate the critical levers and mechanisms that make the markets what they were and what they resemble now. We have always been captive to the policy of Central Banks…in their engineering of both booms and busts. We are perhaps now at extremes and that then poses questions about why are they so enamoured with their policy of engineering everything ?
Is it because they must to ensure we are kept in this fantasy forever?
I suspect something more sinister. It is being done intentionally.
If they could engineer to have the price of Oil at $110 / barrel so that they could encourage massive investment into “NEW” sources of supply (fracking)….then to engineer the price lower to $55/barrel….to what end?
Engineering the price of Gold to go to almost $1900/oz then to encourage massive investment into exploration and development…only then to have it turn down to $1150/oz…to what end ?
Same could be said for any number of commodities ( Iron Ore, Coal, Gas, Copper).
What is this really about. What is the bigger picture ?
Communism’s aim is to strive for State Ownership- of everything…. businesses, health, energy supply, infrastructure etc. INCLUDING title and CONTORL over NATURAL RESOURCES.
Russia has an abundance of Natural Resources. So too do many Sth. American countries.
Financial engineering is a means to an end. It encourages companies to take substantial risks in a climate which is very inviting…all the while the opaque actions of the Banksters behind the scenes, are taking insurance bets to cover the downside just before they strike the blow to instigate a crisis. Derivatives are the market tool…du jour. One of the main reasons it is not regulated is so that the public would not be made aware of their true nature nor given any warning about what actions are about to be implemented.
Who are the ones that gain from this crazed engineering?
The same ones who control the monetary system.
What happens when TBTF Banks are declared bankrupt or have no capacity to carry on. They get nationalized. (GS).
What happens when systemically important/ critical supply businesses fail. They get nationalized. (AIG/ Fannie and Freddie).
Nationalizing…… is…….Communism. Any other alternative description is superfluous.
Everything else in the background is just noise.
I often say don’t get lost in the detail. Stand back and observe.
This will become the year when a lot more dots are going to be connected.
Excellent opening to the new year. You have certainly started with a high benchmark.
Allow me please to say this:
When do you load up on gold/silver? when the price is up or when it is down?
When do you load up on oil? when the price is up or down?
Most of the time you will find the psychological factor of the masses will load up when prices on the rise and they will sell when the price is tumbling.
Think tanks in countries differ but at the end when major wars come they will sell or their treasures will be STOLEN and history is full of those stories.
So the though i have is:
Let Russia and the rest of the world that is in the BRICS orbit load up on PM/oil … and after the coming war west will take their gold/silver/oil/wheat …… back.
When you load up on PM and leave your self low on cash (FIAT) you will sell every ounce you loaded pennies on the dollar (if dollar will still be around) to get a handful of dates.
Just a thought i had.
The WAR you mention is actually being played out on the financial and economic stage…even in cyberspace. Price movements are part of that battle. There indeed is an Art to WAR.
My thesis is about how the Banksters have corrupted the system to the point where they now want every business and every sovereign nation that they manipulate and control (within the confines of the world’s monetary system), BANKRUPTED. Their aim is to ultimately control the Earth’s natural resources. Financial Engineering is WAR. It is directed at domestic and international business as well as Nations. Bigger picture = One World Government.
Thanks for paying attention.
SIG … The Big picture as to how things play out on the financial economic stage can be found right in Genesis. Now just as Einstein predicted the speed of light in God’s universe to be a constant. The Fed has created one constant in their financial universe “increasing debt”.
Whereas, God’s Light … gives rise to economic Life! … The Fed’s Debt … gives rise to economic Death!
Yes, it’s the Old Story of Good, Evil and Resurrection … being played out before us once again on God’s Great Stage!!
Where all “Elements of Life” follow from the Light of God.
And all the “Elements of Death” follow from the exponential increase in Debt by the Fed!
We can interpret Genesis as such: In The Beginning all the elements of God (gold, silver, carbon(oil), etc.) arose in economic Light … from a Black Hole of economic Nothingness (Debt)!
And although we gold-bugs are currently in the shadow of Debt (where God’s elements are considered worthless useless zero relics by the Fed) … fear no evil … as the Resurrection to Life will be explosive … For out of the Fed’s “fiat nothingness” … a veritable Big Bang will ensue!! … Creating economic light once again in our financial universe and with this light the “very precious” elements needed for economic Life!
Fox news is garbage.
Fox only filled a position on ‘the Right’ – the same as Democrat and Republican does in it’s pseudo, Left/Right paradigm. America is living in a dream world.
Who exactly is living in a fantasy world again ?
There are numerous alternatives to fill your desires, delusions and trash can……. outside of this platform. Seek and ye shall find.
SIG; here is a site, with a guy ‘socialbeachdude’ in the comments side explaining the fed, money printing, saying “happy days are here again, all is well” i will post only a snip-it of his comment. tell me your opinion pls. here is the site. http://dollarcollapse.com/monetary-policy-2/wow-they-really-are-tapering/
Stocks went SOARING UPWARDS IN 1930 and then did so again in 1936 and in both cases went PLUNGING STRAIGHT BACK DOWN and stayed down until 1954 just as I stated which was the first year that they recovered their 1929 highs (although a number of DJIA 30 stocks had become totally worthless by then and were substituted out of the Dow Jones 30 Industrials index).
Money is certainly NOT “failing everywhere” at all as you very falsely assert.
As to interest rates, they are already soaring in certain countries around the world such as 9% in Greece and 17% in Russia. The Federal Reserve has nothing whatsoever to do with interest rates in the US economy where all interest rates that matter to the US economy are SET IN THE US TREASURY BOND MARKETS.
The only 2 interest rates that the Federal Reserve controls have NOTHING WHATSOEVER TO DO WITH THE YIELDS (INTEREST RATES) ON US TREASURIES.
The Federal Reserve CANNOT AND DOES NOT CONTROL INTEREST RATES AT ALL IN THE ECONOMY and only controls the following 2 interest rates which have nothing whatsoever to do with the economy:
1) Federal Discount Rate – currently 0.75%
2) Federal Funds Rate (which it influences) – currently 0.25%
Both rates are only for VERY SHORT TERM LIQUIDITY PURPOSES AND APPLY ONLY TO BANK BORROWING, with the Federal Discount rate being for direct borrowing by banks from the Federal Discount Window at the Federal Reserve and the Federal Funds rate being for interbank borrowing.
The only 2 rates set by the Federal Reserve have absolutely nothing to do with the interest rates that banks pay on savings account, other than to “influence” the banks to perhaps pay higher or lower rates on those accounts.
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socalbeachdude • 17 hours ago
The Federal Reserve’s success at helping push unemployment to amazing record high levels in the US is simply unprecedented!
THE LATEST COMPLETE US UNEMPLOYMENT REPORT
100,464,000 Americans eligible and of working age now not working (31.59%)
The US has a population of about 318,000,000 people.
Let’s do some math:
318,000,000 Total People in America on which all percentages based
-69,156,000 Americans NOT ELIGIBLE for Labor Force (21.75%)
248,844,000 Total population ELIGIBLE for working in the US (78.25%)
-92,447,000 Americans ELIGIBLE for Labor Force “Not Participating” (29.07%)
– 8,017,000 Americans ELIGIBLE and “actively seeking employment” (02.52%)
148,380,000 Americans CURRENTLY WORKING (46.67% of all Americans)
169,620,000 Americans CURRENTLY NOT WORKING (53.34% of all Americans)
Utter crap – AGAIN.
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socalbeachdude wolfmanjack • 2 hours ago
Yep, YOUR assertions are exactly what you described, dude.
My calculations on unemployment / employment above are 100% correct and completely verifiable.
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socalbeachdude • 18 hours ago
The US dollar is now at 91.35 on the DXY this morning and at the rate it is rising this year, it will likely cross over 100 on the DXY by the end of this month and keep on soaring up towards and over 120 on the DXY very rapidly.
Happy days are here again!
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socalbeachdude • 18 hours ago
Not a single penny of the Federal Reserve QE funds ever left the Federal Reserve where they were DEPOSITED IN THE EXCESS RESERVES ACCOUNTS OF THE BANKS THERE FROM WHOM THE FEDERAL RESERVE PURCHASED SECURITOES and those funds have always remained there in those excess reserves accounts which are now around $3 trillion in aggregate balances.
That does not affect the money supply at all but only increased the monetary base and is now being rapidly reversed by the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve started on November 1, 2014 rapidly tightening dramatically and reversing QE and shrinking their balance sheet.
The Federal Reserve is NOW RAPIDLY REVERSING QE AND USING THOSE FUNDS IN THE EXCESS RESERVE ACCOUNTS TO SELL SECURITIES BACK TO THE BANKS WHICH EXTINGUISHES THOSE FUNDS AND REDUCES THE FEDERAL RESERVE BALANCE SHEET.
The Federal Reserve’s number one priority now is REDUCING THE SIZE OF ITS BALANCE SHEET which is decreasing rapidly and is now down to $3.8 trillion.
Keep an eye on the Fed’s accelerating asset sales – CNBC
The U.S. monetary authorities (Fed) are stepping up the contraction of their balance sheet at a surprisingly fast pace. Since peaking at $4.07 trillion last August, the Fed’s monetary base has been reduced by $259.2 billion as of the latest reserve reporting date on November 26, 2014.
More than half of these Fed asset sales occurred between the end of October and the end of November. But the balance sheet remains an impressive $3.8 trillion — a huge difference with the pre-crisis monetary base of $820-$830 billion.
HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN!!!
Allen. It will take some time to read through all those comments. At first blush some of the comments made by SBD (interesting handle for a client of JPMC) suggest only half-truths. I will try to analyse to prove exactly where this is evident and try to revert.
In my summation Allen this guy is a shrill.
He works for the establishment.
I read only his 1st three comments and there is an indication of bias.
“this ends badly for the speculators” No it ends badly for everyone except the 1 % Elite
“the fed purchased stellar AAA rated securities” The securities may have been rated AAA but we all know that the rating was done by owned agencies and he forgets to mention that these securities were toxic (hence the reason for the bank’s offloading them) and once inside the fed they were never subject to Accounting rules where they should be marked to market. They were and still remain toxic/worthless .
“not a single penny left etc.” QE had two prongs. MBS buying and deficit funding. True the funds from the proceeds of the tarp remained on deposit but those funds were assets of the banks.As such the bank’s could use them as they would any other capital ……and leverage it up to 20 times and deploy it in any market. Think stocks , real estate et all !
“there was no increase in the money supply from QE” again he omits to take into account the fact that the government required ongoing funding through the debt monetisation program.
I stopped at this point he is not convincing and in fact is deceiving. He has an agenda.
Shill and probably has a shrill voice.
predictive text kills me
I knew something was up, since all our guests, and commenters have a different side of the “happy days’ stuff. tks. al ols
I think that Chip, above, is correct. I’m from one of the lands Bolsheviks took over, and the parallels between 1914 and 2014 are downright eerie. Hang on with all your might to what is decent and good.
This link is for part 4 of a 4 part documentary from CBC (canada) discussing the global financial crisis. What we discuss here today was predicted by world leaders years ago.
The race to the bottom is almost over.
Mike. I think this documentary explains just how many thinks have gone wrong. Like the man said at the end, as the world is trying to deal with the present crises the next one is coming. Think I will watch all of the documentary. Thanks.
This is my response to Emeth. If you think the U.S. is not insolvent, you better pay attention. We owe 18 trillion dollars that can NEVER be repaid. The 400 billion dollar annual deficit is really over 6 trillion dollars using generally accepted accounting principals-GAAP. This is according to the CBO ! We only take in 3 trillion dollars per year in taxes. Tell us again that we are not insolvent and please explain.
Joseph, you asked so I will try and answer. The US government only has to pay its debts on time to be considered solvent. That will not be a problem for a long long time. I’m guessing that the ‘$6tn’ number from the CBO using GAAP is taking into account what they should be accruing for unfunded liabilities. Funny thing is that governments never follow GAAP rules, which are basically for businesses which do not have either governmental legislative power or printing presses. Also, this assumes that the federal government is going to assume responsibility for all the unfunded liabilities of the various states etc, and pay 100 cents in the dollar. Whether we like it or not, governments do what they like when expediency drives them. Apart from this, read my summary above.
I am not saying I agree with them, just that these are the facts. I’m taking the part of “the 10th man” here, so you all hear the counter argument. There will be few safe havens in the crisis ahead.
The reality is the US has more debt than it produces by way of GDP.
That in itself is a recipe for BANKRUPTCY. The only reason it remains superficially solvent is because it has suppressed interest rates.
Sure it can print to infinity – but only while it has the reserve currency.
The Lunatic Asylum that is the FED is destroying the fabric of a great society. As a side consequence, it is also destroying the globe.
With regard unfunded liabilities – these are merely contingent liabilities. There is no obligation to pay or to satisfy any contract terms. They (welfare payments/pension & retirement plans) can AND WILL be withdrawn at a moments notice.
Great interview for the beginning of 2015! Thanks Rob and Greg! Happy New Year to you both!
Rob is spot-on about the shale debt imploding. The mom and pop oil companies that are still in shale oil and gas are going down the tubes fast. As I writer this reply, oil is at $50.46 per barrel. I believe oil prices are going lower. At sustained prices under $50 per boeq the shale companies cannot repay their debt. There will be defaults on loan repayments. For anyone that doesn’t believe oil prices are being manipulated, you have to wonder: Why on Earth did the Obvama administration release five million barrels in Q1 2014 from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves for the first time since 1990?” I assure you it was not “to appropriately assess the systems capabilities in the event of a disruption” as reported by the Energy Dept. The capabilities of the SPR are well-kown and maintained. The US should be buying oil and filling the SPR at current prices. Cheers.
Thanks for the interview again Greg. I am sure all markets are manipulated. But I wonder with the crash of the oil price, is it not that the OPEC was needed to oversupply, or not cut down production to crash the price. Crushing the fracking oil competition, or to get at Russia, or both. As the financial system is correctly referred to as the biggest casino ever, the system is rigged just like an electronic fruit machine, and then you know the stakes, the fiat currencies, will crash in the end, but how long it takes depends on the software, and the engineers behind it, which doesn’t exclude there could be some errors in the software, which could give a blow up before their planned moment, or moments in a chain reaction, as they seem to walk the edge, getting what they want either way. That fruit machine signals all kinds of things, but is just keeping the gambler intrigued until the party is over, the trillion dollar question is ‘when’ that might be, as there are so many variables, so many combinations. First time ever all countries run on funny money currency, which prolongs the funny money game, in a race to the bottom. They say the dollar is high today, but calculated into the former Dutch guilder – which became 0.454 euro – it’s about exact the same as some 25 years ago when I visited the USA a couple of times, and at that time the dollar was at an all-time low. It’s the race to the bottom, as all the world’s currencies are not backed by anything, as that part of the game could last longer than we might think. Dollar strong/euro weak, dollar weak/euro strong, and so on. Running up PM’s to 1900 dollar gold, and 48 silver, as it went too fast at the time, luring investors into it, and then crush it, to exit PM’s for some time, the canary in the coalmine in coma until further notice. As all agree, Harry Dent and Rick Ackermann included, the funny money system will implode. To time it, to get gains by it, is a dangerous thing as nobody knows the software in the fruit machine, or the machine just blowing up by whatever event, a derivatives blow up, a lost confidence in the system, or whatever combination. Harry Dent advises to have currency in a trader account, whatever the philosophy, but to have any value, paper or not, at third parties is a very dangerous gamble these days. As I am in the inflation camp, I try to understand the deflation camp. It’s a confusing debate…….currency inflation, price inflation, currency deflation, price deflation. As far I understand it we have globally, in a race to the bottom, massive currency inflation so far. Deflationary forces all around, orchestrated or not, to keep the attention away from the massive currency inflation, the mantra ‘this time is different’ still a strong one, keeping up confidence. Strong inflationary forces in the stock market, and reflating forces in real estate, and so on. Central banks can’t raise rates – or not much – as the debt load would be far too heavy. Russia could raise the interest rate to 17% as they don’t have much debt. As long velocity of money is low, they can create all the funny money they want, as it doesn’t go into main street, main street doesn’t feel the tsunami of currency, at the contrary. Demographics is an important interesting ingredient among the countless ones, to see it as a leading indicator like Harry Dent is therefore dead wrong. As from the beginning of 2008 I am convinced of crashing currencies, but 7 years later I learned to expect the unexpected until we are there, as the big fruit machine is still running. The big fruit machine mastering many fruit machines on the floor. The one in stocks is inflating. The one in the dollar is inflating. The one in bonds is inflating. Confidence in the system is key factor, but MSM and all the propaganda keeps it in place so far. As long there are inflating fruit machines, confidence in the system holds up. I wonder if David Morgan could be right with his statement that the dollar is strong as the last fruit machine before the one of PM’s, the exit for ever inflating currencies, will crank up. When the dollar tanks, the euro rises, as that one could be the next winning fruit machine for some time, dollar high/euro low, dollar low/euro high. ‘Change, yes we can’, but looking at history chaos is going before change, and we are seeing the road to chaos being paved, so far Barack Obama delivered what he promised. Rick Ackerman sees 700 dollar gold, but doesn’t exclude 2300 dollar gold, as such a prediction pans out like a weatherman saying it probably will rain, but it could be dry. As I am not a gambler walking from one fruit machine to the other, I try to see the scenario of 700 dollar gold anyway, as Harry Dent can see even a much lower price. As I like to study monetary history, I like to get my mind around scenarios which I don’t see, and if I would, I wouldn’t bet on it anyway, as I hate gambling, they made us all a gambler anyway in the perverse/criminal/fraudulent funny money circus. 700 dollar gold is below current cost of production. 16 dollar silver is already below cost of primary mining, but that’s only 20% of yearly production. When the stock market crashes, there is a stock market deflation, as the currency is still there, it just changed hands. I reckon they are talking about a massive currency deflation to get low gold prices. In the debate ‘Peter Schiff vs Bob Prechter’ of October 2012, Bob Prechter sees a massive deflation, low PM pricing, because politicians will get responsible and just default on the debt, or something. Expect the unexpected, but I agree with Peter Schiff that the circumstance of responsible politicians is not likely at all, by far not, at the contrary. There are so many variables in so many combinations, no one can foretell what the chain of events, blowing up the big fruit machine, will be. As far holding onto currency for the bet on lower gold prices could work, it then depends on how much currency is held for physical gold. If that amount exceeds by far the available physical in main street, then you can’t get it at the event of low gold prices. If we get a massive debt implosion, currency deflation, then the question about confidence in the system arises on the horizon, as all the funny money is debt. 180.000 tonnes of mined gold in the world is worth about 7 trillion usd, maybe half – at the most – available for main street, of which a big chunk is in strong hands. After the 2008 crash retail stocks were sold out fast here in Europe, refineries had to go 24/7 to produce retail products. China is a big factor, as they were enabled to buy the JP Morgan building with vaults beneath it, as they have an interest in low gold prices, to position themselves, too low prices I think they are not charmed with as they encourage their people to invest in physical gold. I wonder the software of the big fruit machine would allow too low gold prices, as that would give the risk of an increasing run on physical gold, which is a risk with tight supplies as it is, as they walk the edge. So many variables, so many combinations, as they are exciting times to witness the change Obama talked about. When I started this post I didn’t plan it this long Greg.
May love and honesty one day rule this world.
Peter Schiff versus Harry Dent an interesting one also.
How stupid can people be?
It has been proven over and again that ALL markets are RIGGED.
“The Laws of Economics” apply only to FREE markets.
Since ALL markets are proven to be RIGGED not FREE, why do you and your guests keep insisting on their forecasts according to the “Laws of Economics”?
In like manner; since near all corporations lie in their annual statements (just like the bankers) and their claimed “profits” are a lie (one way or the other) than how can “fundamental analysis” which is based on lies be true?
Since all markets are RIGGED the Laws of economics don’t apply.
As long as they can print money and wage war (even economic war like they’re waging against Russia and N. Korea) they will continue to RIG everything they can.
I used to think you were intelligent, Greg. Not any more.
Its about 12:30ET and West Tex is $50.23/barrel
What it all boils down to is that we all allow the value of our time and our energy to be determined by a bunch of degenerate scumbags who I would not even trust to make me a salad….I for one am just plain sick of this crap and its only getting started; thats just great.
Happy new year to you and all.
Here is a bit of news that is going to upset Netanyahu for sure:
If US strikes a deal with IRAN shy from dismantling the whole program expect the unexpected from Israel…. AND WITHOUT WARNING..!!!!!
Actually Greg, if you look at it from a distance you will see the Saudi’s paying Obama+Russia+Iran+Europe big big time by dumping that crude paper/physical in the market IN COHUT with ISRAEL.
For first time in my life i see the Saudi’s interest lining up with Israel’s interest and acting in some kind of harmony, does not mean they are in love with each other, but at least their interests are similar in curbing Iran’s program and dismantling it, the thing Obama is not getting with his staff in their head.
It seems to be costly to call Netanyahu a chicken @#$% and that was not smart on behalf of the admin.
Hands faster than thoughts …. Sorry for misspelling CAHOOT.
US military build up in Kuwait is to fight ISIS. ISIS is moving toward Saudi Arabia. Many ISIS members are from Saudi Arabia. For instance, there was a bombing on the Saudi-Iraq border recently. If chaos goes to Saudi Arabia, the US military will intervene, even if the Saudi Royal Family and the Chinese, who are becoming a big influence in the region, protest. This could stop the Saudis from continuing their over production of oil, thus driving the price up as the economy weakens. This will be a ground war, as the US Air Force reported they have a shortage of Drone operators. Pray for our children who serve and for their commanders to have a clear judgment.
J Medina… ” This could stop the Saudis from continuing their over production of oil, thus driving the price up .” …………. Hell, just the idea will drive the price up. I have said repeatedly these low prices will not stand. I think I’m the only one. Predictions now of $40 and below in the MSM. We live in a Matrix world of extremes. Whatever “bottom” we make in oil/gold will be reversed to the other extreme. ………… I can see many of the scenarios talked about in the comment section happening SIMULTANEOUSLY………….. Iran, Saudi, Syria, Ukraine eruptions with economic collapses/problems thrown in the mix……. All part of the “planned chaos”.
Did I miss something OB1? Mister Kirby talks about the rigging of the markets.
So everyone is proclaiming alarm and crash ahead… Nothing is making sense , the decisions are illogical etc.
Well, there is good reason to be sounding the alarm and there is a crash ahead. But, the bottom line is military strength. That is what we’ve come to because that is the ultimate settlement court for all debts.
The US government has outgrown itself and the so-called leaders are completely deceived thinking they have the trump card. I suspect not.
The blogs are full of “expressions” and there is actually no other action happening. This is a worse case scenario – when people take to the keyboard rather then the streets.
Great interview, i listened to it and took notice.
Few thought to share:
1- please notice that the plunge in Diesel was not as much as the plunge in gasoline (diesel is used in military vehicles), Diesel may be in greater demand……!!!!!.
Add to it the build up of military in Kuwait that you referred to in the end.
2- Russia’s wild card (energy) is hurt by the plunge in the price.
3- Syria’s war is not going well in the favor of the wast and Assad is still in power.
4- Ukraine is not going well in the favor of the west and Russia is still tightening the grip.
5- Germany is dancing to the tune of Russia UNLESS an appealing supplier of energy (gulf states with their cheap oil) can fill the gap.
6- US is appeasing Iran to strike a deal that will be considered the climax of Obama era, and that is not sitting well with Israel.
All that paints a picture of a major war coming, the spark of it will be the hit of the nuclear facilities in Iran by Israel WITHOUT A WARNING SIGN. It will be helpful to remember that they just hit the airport of Damascus perimeter and another site in Damascus WITHOUT WARNING recently, so when Israel talks about hitting someone rest assured that you still have some time on your clock, but when they go silent …that is when you need to be worried.
Another great interview with a terrific guest. You are the Johnny Carson of the internet. By that, I mean anyone who is anyone wants to be interviewed by you.
One thought I had about the drop in oil prices. Is it likely that one reason for the drop was to make more profit for company’s? Because the rise in oil prices was the big reason for prices going up for everything from food to washing machines etc. etc.. And I never see them go down for the same reason that they went up.
The scariest part of empirical collapse is the small number of central planners that are quickly becoming another Major Kong…
Isn’t it what you have been saying on your blog all along…?
“NEW YORK (AP) — After six months of falling oil prices, investors are starting to worry that the prolonged slump is signaling a weaker global economy.”
Please bold type” weaker global economy”
to all JWillie fans.
The End Game is underway and in progress.
People had better prepare themselves for some conclusion events, certain to occur with fireworks.
The USDollar is soon to go away, put to rest, killed off.
Its rise signals its demise. The hidden dismantle of the Petro-Dollar mechanism has been eerie, mysterious, and full of intrigue. The crisis is better described as the Global Monetary War.
The Gold Standard will return, but through the trade window. The solution to the untreated Global Financial Crisis is the gold route.
The Eurasian Trade Zone will be built upon the gold route, and see a revival of the Silk Road.
It cannot be stopped, not even by war.
The safe haven is not the USDollar, but rather Gold & Silver bars & coins, otherwise defined as money.
Any nation wishing to establish trade or a monetary system centered upon gold is branded a rogue nation, subject to extreme propaganda. This is precisely why Russia is being vilified, since they want no more USDollar in trade or banking, and lead a global movement to discard the USD as global reserve currency.
The solution is with precious metals as the core to banking, trade, and currency, even wealth preservation.
The agents of change are working at hyper-speed now. The USDollar is doomed, and its captains are running for their lives.
The return of Gold to its primacy is long overdue.
Allen Can you tell me one thing the Jackass has said here that you don’t already know ? Also, Russia was vilified way before they chose to trade with non-dollars.
One thing is for sure, each commenter or interviewee brings their own style, flair, and interject their own thought and ideas.
kirby, celente, willie, pcr, greyerz, b.holtz, M armgst. and many do this regularly. It is good to hear many angles of thought.
The jackass is unique in his POV. al
greg and all inflationists;
here is MARTIN ARMSTRONG’S take on deflation/inflation.
If you look back in history, the previous world war all started as a quick and easy to win war, but just unraveled beyond our wildest imagination. So the next will also start with such an event. May be Israel attacking Iran will be such an event. First Israel’s has this amazing arrogance because of that they will do all kind of tactical mistakes like their attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Second Iran by its history is one country who can take hit and for seriously long time. Always remember all wars are won by guys who could take the hit for as much as possible – Nazi vs Russia, Taliban vs USA in Afghan, USA vs Vietnam. The enormous fire power is a good thing, but that softens the soldiers a bit may be.
This may save the price of oil. Enter black swan, stage left.
If the below video is true then Obama is a fool and this will come to biting the USA in the a**. Whatever happened to negotiation?
Obama admits falling oil prices aimed at weakening Russian economy
In an interview on Monday, US President Barack Obama admitted that falling international oil prices are part of a strategy aimed at weakening the Russian economy. In an interview with National Public Radio Obama said sanctions on Moscow and the cut in oil prices are designed to pressure Russia to change its policies on Ukraine.
Click here to watch the video…
“SAUDI”S WILL NOT BLINK FIRST….”
They have the green light from Israel, other wise they would never be able to do so.
How are.things. from the link, I.dont understand what Israel greenlighted.
You need to live in the ME long enough to understand.
Which is why I thought you.could inform a poor infidel what Qualcomm has to do with it. Perhaps I expected too much?
Interesting disucssion(s). When the global economy reaches a point of no return(s), the final solution will be a global minimum wage. Like a massive dose of “I feel so good now”, people will take a deep breath and begin to live as the creative center intended.
The apocalypse is always 6 months from now, early year whatever, later this year, blah, blah…. Funny thing it never happens yesterday
WTI (west.tex.iterm) $47.91/barrel.
Russia, Venezuela, Iran they have to be hurting.
The rest of OPEC has problems too.
How low can it go?
Off subject – but then again maybe not?
However the timing of these share sales does seem very suspicious to me being just 3 days before this latest incident.
Further more – 3 horrendous tragedies involving Asian airlines in a matter of months strikes me as an absolutely glaring statistical anomaly.
You may not want to post this because it maybe just coincidental.
Just thought you should be aware of this anyway Greg.
I suspect that this particular event is unrelated to the incident (Air Asia crash).
Although the 3 day period prior to the incident satisfies the marker (72 hour timeframe) that is used by intelligence agencies to determine terrorist plans and activities prior to an event.
There would need to be other factual data that is evident to support the “knowledge” and corresponding “action”. The fact that Fernandez still holds significant stock in the entity suggest
….it is coincidence.
Keen eyes nonetheless. 😉
Former Virginia Rep. Governor Bob McDonnell;
Ex-Va. gov sentenced to 2 years in prison for corruption
USA TODAY – 20 mins ago
RICHMOND, Va. — Former Virginia governor Bob McDonnell, who asked a judge Tuesday …
Former Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell Sentenced to Two Years in
Greg I find it strange when a country begs another to charge them more for what they once charged to much. The stocks are down according to my stock friend because the Saudis cheep oil prices. Extreme highs and lows yet were in a recovery.
ahhhhaa, I checked 15 min. ago for esr, and went to kitchen for bowl of chili, w/cheese, and baby swiss chee z-it’s, and some honey on top. Ooops, got carried away. Came back to computer, checked silver docs, and more, then re checked for kirby; ahha, I am first to see it. lol video not up.
Kirby, is one of my top favorites!!!