Oil Price Plunge Trigger for Next Global Crisis-Harry Dent

4By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com  (Early Sunday Release)

Economist Harry Dent says falling oil prices will be a trigger for another economic calamity.  Dent explains, “Normally, oil prices falling in a good economy like the 80’s and 90’s, where we have falling inflation and booming productivity and good demographic trends, this would be a good thing.  It is a good thing for consumers and businesses, but it is a bad thing for financial markets and our whole debt structure.  We have the greatest debt bubble in history.  It’s the greatest asset bubble in history, including stocks, commodities, real estate and everything.   The last time this bubble burst was in 2008 because of the subprime crises.  A small tranche of loans went bad, and it triggered a whole debt crisis . . . that’s what I see.  I see a fracking bubble here.  What’s happened is because of demographic trends, which we predicted years ago, trends in developed countries are set to slow.  It will be aging baby boomers spending less money, very simple to see.  In addition to that, you get this fracking revolution with all the low cost money from the Fed stimulus and zero interest rates, and what you have now is we created two million extra barrels of oil a day just out of Texas and North Dakota.”

Dent, who has a new book out called “The Demographic Cliff,” goes on to say, “Now, the only way to counter this is if OPEC and Saudi Arabia said we’re going to cut production.  Well, Saudi Arabia said no, we’re not going to do that because we don’t like these frackers.  They are competing with us long term, and they are seeing this as an opportunity to squeeze out their competition.  The more the price of oil falls, the more of these frackers and other marginal countries like Venezuela go out of business when they can’t compete.  It’s a good long term move for the Saudis, but I think they are miscalculating that they could help trigger the next global crisis.  We have more debt than we had in 2008.  The demographics only get worse in more and more countries. . . . So, I think this is the trigger for the global crisis.  There’s $500 billion in leveraged loans with the fracking industry.  I think this thing is going to blow up.” 

Who is to blame for the shaky economy we are in?  Look no further than the government, and Dent contends, “What’s happened is the government has created a bubble with all this low short- term interest rates and all this stimulus, and their only defense is to keep this bubble going. . . . We got the greatest bubble in debt in modern history by far.  We have the greatest asset bubble across the world in real estate, commodities, stocks; everything is in a bubble.  When these bubbles burst, the whole system comes down.  They are doing everything to prevent it, but everything they do to prevent it from blowing up is making it worse.  This is a game they cannot win–mark my words, cannot win, and we are going to see a major crisis . . .  especially over the next two years.  These falling oil prices trigger these fracking firms.  They have 20% of the junk bond high-yield debt in the United States, and that’s all it takes to trigger another financial crisis, just like the subprime crisis back in 2008.  All it takes is a trigger and the whole debt thing comes down.”

On the stocks, look out below.   Dent says, “The next crash is going to take us to a new low around 5,500 on the Dow. . . . That’s going to be a 65% to 75% crash.”

On the U.S. dollar, Dent says, “I have debated all these experts, including Peter Schiff, and they are just wrong.  They are right about an economic crisis, and they are right about the unsustainability of this bubble and debt.  They are dead wrong about what happens when debt deleverages.  History proves this 100% of the time.  When a debt bubble deleverages . . . money is destroyed.  When there is less money chasing the same goods, you get deflation–not inflation.”

On gold, Dent says, “We’ve been predicting gold will go down for many years now, and the next target is $700 per ounce.  I think we will see that in the next two years at a minimum.”

Join Greg Hunter as he interviews financial guru and best-selling author Harry Dent. 

(There is much more in the video interview.)

After the Interview: 

If you would like to get a copy of Harry Dent’s new book, click here.  If you would like to receive Dent’s free newsletter, click here and scroll down and look on the right side of the page.

 

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Comments
  1. Michael

    Greg, I am being somewhat funny and some what sarcastic, but when Harry comes out the near term bottom is probably in.

    Also, please don’t forget to bring Harvey Organ back to Account for his call.
    Thanks!

    • beth

      Harry Dent came out in late 1999, right before the top in March 2000, with a book called something like DOW 40,000. He had a big seminar at the Beverly Hills Hilton as I recall. Listen to this guy at your peril! It was like a pep rally.. He’s clueless…

      • Richard

        I know he was dead wrong in 2000 and I told him he would be wrong when I met him at a seminar in 2000 he held in Palm Springs, CA., however, don’t bet against him this time. You must be able to sense that things are not right.

    • Winston Churchill

      You might be a little premature re Harvey organ.
      December still has a few weeks to run.Judging by the new COMEX “collar”
      pricing rules for gold and silver, which become effective Dec. 22nd,
      something big is brewing in the paper PM markets.
      Buckle up.

      • allen ols

        greg, BTW, HERE IS A GOOD CHEMTRAIL REPORT.

        This is a message I received, from a credible source. This message is (allegedly) from a USAF pilot, who flies Aerosol Tankers, as part of the secret Indigo Skyfold (geoengineered aerosol “chemtrail”) program.
        Please save this text, and forward the video! (The text was too long for Youtube to put in the description, so I will put the entire message in the comments section.)

        http://sgtreport.com/2014/12/the-haarp-report-secret-chemtrail-flights-pilot-speaks-out/

        December 14th, 2014 | Category: Fascism, Geoengineering/Climate, News, NWO Tyranny

        • allen ols

          ALSO;
          Robert Fitzwilson; KWNews;

          Einstein lived in an era when the nuclear weapons of war that he dreaded were present and had already been used at the end of World War 2. What none of us could have imagined are the new weapons of war that have emerged since his era. Among them are lasers, drones, miniaturized reconnaissance devices, “dirty bombs” and weaponized diseases (although catapulting deceased and diseased animals over fortified walls in ancient times was a common tactic). Computerized theft of wealth and intellectual property as well as computer viruses such as Stuxnet (first seen in the attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities are additional modern tools for warfare). Disinformation in social media sites and global government surveillance operations are pervasive as well.

          The ease and severity of the ongoing computer attacks against Sony Pictures by the North Koreans should be a warning to every government and individual that protecting against such intrusions is probably a lost cause. It was also reported that the Russians recently demonstrated jamming devices never before imagined against a U.S. destroyer in the Black Sea. The story was that all systems, including the weapons systems, were repeatedly disabled by a single aircraft which then staged mock bombing runs on the destroyer to demonstrate the point. The destroyer supposedly was equipped with the most sophisticated systems in the U.S. weapons arsenal.

          The Chinese have also been testing a plane that can fly at unheard of speeds. If the plane advances to deployment, it could deliver nuclear weapons in a fraction of the time thought possible. Anti-satellite systems are probably in place by the competing countries as well. Our national electrical grids remain dangerously exposed to the possibility of an electrical magnetic pulse attack (EMP). It was recently suggested that 100 million people could lose power if such an event occurred in the United States.

          • allen ols

            also;
            here is a great video on field dressing a BUCK, fresh after kill.
            Here is a great video HOW TO GUT A FRESH KILL DEER, IE BUCK, called field dressing. takes 7 minutes. I recommend long forearm length rubber gloves, and a jug of water to wash off residue. al ols
            http://thevictoryreport.org/how-deer-minutes/…

        • Jo Zon

          Harry is smart. I’m not smart. When the economy breaks and everyone is poor I can wipe my butt with dollars so they are useful but gold is just pretty but I want it, look how it shines. I bet other people want it too. I can trade it for stuff. I can trade dollars too but only to people that need toilet paper. I like penut budder, do you like penut budder? I bet Harry does.

          • chuck

            you smart too Jo Zon

        • foggygoggles

          Here’s another link, in which TPTB are now admitting to chem trails.

          http://www.activistpost.com/2014/12/elite-think-tank-admits-to-ongoing.html?m=1

      • Michael

        MAYBE, but given his track record, which you can find with a simple Google search suggests those who believe it may be disappointed come Jan. 1….we shall see.

    • Charles H.

      Michael,

      Karl Denninger would be great too!

    • Web Guy Perth

      Trying to figure out whether the gold price is going to shoot up before the financial system collapses is certainly tricky. It seems like the comex will trade a billion dollars in gold contracts even if they have only one ounce of inventory. They will just cash settle like they have since April 2012 and not call it a default. Even if the have no gold, with no regulators actually doing some regulating, this could go on for quite a while despite shortages in the precious metals. It is going to take the Russians and the Chinese to actively buy gold at higher prices and be public about it to cause this rigged casino to pop. So now I have the US government which is completely captured who have gone completely rogue trying to start a war without realising that the Russian technology is further advanced. The chinese have no conscience and Putin who is no angel looking like the cleanest dirty sheet.
      It reminds me of that parody song “Too Depressed to Commit Suicide”
      I have retreated to my darkened room for the day awaiting further developments.
      See song https://soundcloud.com/neville-greenwood/my-darkened-room

    • George

      Greg – Harry seems like a nice man, however his view on gold is not realistic if ‘westernized fiat money were to die’ – He avoids the brics topic, and has no idea of the efforts of Karen Hudes and her team. I would like to hear Karen’s view again both before the Holidays and After – Someone you should interview again is Bo Polny, I just learned that the CME Group have implemented a 5 min. stop when both gold and silver reach gains of $100 and $3 respectively ! Effective Dec 22nd.

      I enjoy your publication, and look forward to riding this mess out relying on your
      credible commentaries.

      Sincerely
      George

      • archivesDave

        George, Karen Hudes has gone over the cliff:
        First she declared there are massive gold deposited in Hawaii
        then when pinned down, she said they are in the Philippines.
        I emailed her asking WHERE in the Philippines.
        NO REPLY!
        Now she’s into shape shifting Uber Elites!

        • Angie

          Agree on Hudes. I did not know if she was being used, a deceiver, or just a nut. I am convinced that she is a complete nutcase and should become a Prozac spokeswoman.

    • Ed

      Harry Dent is a great contrarian indicator.
      “the Chinese and Russians are wrong” ??? Where does he get off?

    • RMG Gold

      Harvey forgot gold is a currency still in use today and MOST importantly not ALL people run to treasuries for safety. Many will buy REAL things… restate (farmland), gold, Silver oil wells and many other things that are not based on a potential promise to pay from an entity who’s is bankrupt
      As we all know Bric’s are moving away from the dollar, as this sentiment continues globally we will see the real value of the dollar sneaking out of the Fed’s secret hiding places.

    • James in NY

      It was a good eye opener for other possible scenerio’s. I think it holds some merit. In the initial collapse dollars may indeed have buying power, shortly though my expectation is the wheel barrel that went to the bakery filled with money gets stolen. The paper sits blowing in the wind, while a new sign gold & silver accepted in big letters replaces price signs at the local bakery. I can only hope that bankers world wide finally get held accountable for theft, among many other crimes against humanity. They have it coming! My justice shall not be imposed, a shame really, yet my justice tends to be barbaric and unaccepted in todays world. That’s lucky for bankers. No ear necklace I guess, bummer.

  2. smaulgld

    I agree with Harry on the demographic cliff (re stocks) and oil ( its not good for the financial markets) but not gold ($700 nope!).

    He is correct there is a fracking bubble- a fracking mess I call it. (He is wrong re demographics re oil as there is massive population growth and oil demand in the world-see China and India)

    Plenty of money was borrowed at low rates and raised on Wall Street on the assumption that shale oil would take off and solve three issues while making everyone rich:
    – The US would become energy independent;
    – it would create jobs; and
    – the US would no longer needs Saudi Arabia to create demand for the dollar because the export of shale oil would create its own demand for dollar and replace much of the Saudi Arabian demand.
    Since Saudi Arabia has only one card to play – oil, they can’t allow the U.S. to make them less relevant through shale oil competition.
    The Shale oil industry can’t make money at $57 a barrel so all the potential benefits vanish and worse as lots of shale loans won’t be repaid, shale stocks will crash.

    While the low oil prices are good for consumers in the short term-the trade off is not a good one- U.S. consumers can spend more money over the next few months but the US loses high paying jobs in the fracking industry and all that money invested in it may go up in smoke and cause a financial melt down. (agree with Harry)

    I call this shale oil implosion the black snowflake that sets off the avalanche.

    Cheap gas is not really a good trade off -consumers can spend on cheap Chinese goods for a few months while another made in the USA industry goes down in flames.
    More here:
    https://smaulgld.com/black-swan-cheap-oil/

    Re gold- Harry is wrong if he thinks the dollar will be allowed by the Fed to grow stronger by raising interest rate. That would make oil even cheaper and cause even more deflation. The Fed will is made up of members who have it stuck in their craws that deflation is the enemy that must be fought. They can only fight it with more helicopter drops of dollars-this time perhaps instead of a QE- they’ll dump it directly into the economy.

    Harry thinks that the fed would lose credibility if they kept printing money-that won’t stop them! Especially if the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are printing their currencies. The Fed will print and print and lose its safe haven status.

    When dollar denominated debt goes bad, people won’t want dollars.

    If it finally becomes apparent its QE infinity around the world there will be a rush into gold and silver.

    BTW having your money in an “investment account” is as a risky as having it in a bank. “They can’t steal your money” LOLOLOLOL Thanks Greg for mentioning MF Global and street name.

    Harry fails to recognize the value of having an assets that don’t rely on counterparty risk – like gold and silver.

    Hang on! Its going to be an eventful next few weeks, months.

    • Oracle 911

      Hi
      I agree with you, he is wrong in lot of things, simply because not every bank will fail at same time. So the money which will destroyed at first will be these in big US banks (and some European bank because the derivative exposure), then the rest of the US/Western banks will go Cyprus (not at once), then the FED will start QE. After this the and before QE the rest of the world will want something valuable for their US$, so hyperinflation coming.

      So the best thing the CB can do is buying PM’s, so China and Russia is far from being dumb, especially when we look at the GOFO, which signalizing the West run out of the gold. According Jim Willie the London PM vaults are emptied at fastest peace. When will Jim Willie come back?

      BTW criminals in COMEX are implementing a 400 US$ circuit breaker from 21st December of this year.

      My 2 cents
      Oracle 911

      • smaulgld

        oracle
        If the global collapse is in part triggered by a collapse of the US junk bond (shale oil) market it doesn’t seem to make sense that people would want dollars. In 2008 people rushed to dollars because there were no alternatives. Since then the Yuan has risen in stature due to more international deals using it and their massive accumulation of gold.
        In 2008 initial people dropped gold but within months gobbled it up. This time the dollar wont be the knee jerk safe haven Harry thinks it will be

        • Oracle 911

          I agree with you or rather we agree with each other in this matter.

          So if the collapse is triggered by big US bank or by US$ denominated asset, then a question arises:
          Who in his/her right mind will go into US$ or into US$ denominated assets (with counterparty risk)?
          From this point Dent’s advice is dead wrong, rubbish and dangerous.