Treasury Bills: The New Opium
About this time last year, I heard financial expert Jim Rickards say on CNBC, “Federal Reserve needs to cut US Dollar in half over next 14 years.” He followed that up by saying, “If the market sees that playing out which it probably will, you could have a very rapid collapse of the dollar.” Fast forward to today with gold hitting all-time highs, his scenario may be beginning to play out. Rickards is a heavyweight in the world of finance. He is Senior Managing Director for Market Intelligence at Omnis, Inc., and co-head of the firm’s practice in Threat Finance & Market Intelligence. He is a big thinker that peers into the future for a living. Mr. Rickards has given USAWatchdog.com permission to reprint this excellent article. He uses history to get us to ponder the real value of Gold and U.S. Treasuries. Enjoy the read. –Greg Hunter–
By James G. Rickards
Guest Writer for Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
One of the turning points in the history of world trade was the failed mission in 1793 of Lord George Macartney, representing King George III of England, to the Imperial Court of Qianlong, Fifth Emperor of the Manchu Dynasty of China. Beginning in the late 18th century, England had increased its imports of goods from China including tea, silks, spices, porcelain and other manufactured goods. England paid for these imports with silver, and later with exports of opium, which it obtained from its Imperial provinces in Central Asia. Lord Macartney attempted to persuade Emperor Qianlong to open up China to trade with England so that England’s trade deficit could be balanced with exports from England of cotton and woolen textiles, new mechanical devices such as clocks, weapons and other manufactured goods. Macartney famously offended Qianlong by refusing to perform the kowtow, an elaborate ritual of bowing and prostration, and in the end Qianlong rejected Macartney’s offer on grounds of China’s “celestial supremacy” summarized in his remark that there was nothing in the world which China lacked, therefore trade was unnecessary.
Left with only silver and opium with which to balance their trade deficit, England quickly decided that they preferred to keep their silver at home and would thereafter balance their trade with massive opium exports to China. Opium exports to China grew enormously between the 1790’s and 1830’s until addiction reached crisis proportions and the Manchu Dynasty took steps to seize imported opium and to shut down the opium trade. England responded with military force to open the ports and suppress the Manchu officials responsible in a series of Opium Wars which stretched from 1839 to 1856 and which ended in the humiliation of the Manchu and the subordination of the Chinese economy to the mercantile interests of England, France, Russia, Germany, Japan and the U.S. Conveniently, England was able to continue to settle its trade deficits with China using opium, which it grew cheaply and in vast quantities.
Plus ça change…. Today the U.S. faces massive, continual trade deficits with China and has for decades. We take DVD players, flat screen TV’s and iPods instead of tea and silks but the fundamental dynamic of world trade has not changed in 300 years; the U.S. still needs to find a way to pay for its deficit. From 1944 to 1971 under the Bretton Woods international financial system, the U.S. would settle its deficits in gold, much as England had paid in silver in the 1790’s. But in the Bretton Woods period, the U.S. saw its gold reserves dwindle from about 20,000 metric tonnes in 1950 to about 9,000 metric tonnes in 1970. As a result, President Nixon suspended redemption of dollar reserves held by trading partners for gold. Thereafter, trading partners with surpluses and dollar reserves could only invest in dollar denominated assets, principally U.S. Treasury obligations, or dump their dollars for some other currency.
Today the Chinese are even more circumscribed. There are both genuine national security and xenophobic constraints on Chinese direct foreign investment in the United States. They cannot buy large stakes in some of our most choice assets such as technology, telecommunications or natural resources companies or infrastructure plays. And there would be a nationalist backlash if they tried to buy trophy properties as the Japanese learned in the 1980’s. It is impossible to dump the quantity of dollars held by China without causing massive losses on their own positions and radically increasing U.S. interest rates probably to the detriment of Chinese exports to the U.S. The Chinese can buy some Boeing aircraft and IBM servers but not enough to offset their surplus with the U.S. In a strange echo of the Emperor Qianlong, we don’t seem to have enough of what China wants or needs.
As a result, Treasury debt has become the new opium; the cheap, easy-to-produce, commoditized stuff that we ship to China in bulk in exchange for all the stuff we really want. And it’s not clear that China’s addiction to Treasury debt and our willingness to provide it is any less deleterious than the original opium shipments. The Treasury’s preferred model for addressing this problem is for China to “rebalance” to a more consumer driven economy while the U.S. “rebalances” to a more export-led economy thereby reducing the trade deficit and solving the problem of what to do with China’s surpluses. But savings and consumption patterns do not turn on a dime; one need only look at Japan and Germany over the last 50 years to see how difficult, if not impossible, it is to convert an export-led model into something else. China is an even more difficult case because of its demographic pressures, social instability and need to create jobs at almost any cost.
But there is another way to rebalance the world economy. Simply return the dollar to the gold standard and let the Chinese trade their maturing Treasury obligations for U.S. gold, if they wish, as was done under the Bretton Woods system. Critics will quickly point out that this would represent a bargain basement sale of America’s most valuable financial asset; and they would be right. But this is not because the idea is flawed but because the price of gold is kept artificially low by central banks operating through their fiscal agents at the BIS and the London Bullion Market Association. So, let’s do a thought experiment on what the market-clearing price of gold should be given global trade imbalances.
China’s GDP is about 27% of the combined China+U.S. GDP. The U.S. has 8,133 metric tonnes of gold and China has 1,054 metric tonnes; giving both countries a combined total of 9,187 metric tonnes. In order to equilibrate gold in the same ratio as GDP, China would need to receive 1,426 metric tonnes from the U.S. which would leave the U.S. with 6,707 metric tonnes and give China a new total of 2,480 metric tonnes, thus getting to the 27% ratio of combined China+U.S. output. China holds about $2 Trillion of U.S. government securities to theoretically pay for this gold transfer. Simply dividing the quantity of gold to be transferred by the face value of the Treasuries yields a gold price of $39,844 per ounce.
Therein lies the crux of the dilemma of international finance today. If gold is worth $1,250 per ounce, then China’s gold transfer of 1,426 metric tonnes described above, would only absorb about $63 billion of Treasuries in exchange, versus $2 trillion of actual government securities held by China, implying that Treasures are only worth 3% of face value in a full gold exchange standard. Of course, there are many other ways to think about this calculation of the hypothetical price of gold. There is no magic in using the GDP ratio versus other metrics. And the calculation above only considers one bilateral relationship; it is clearly more complicated on a global basis. Comparing U.S. gold to U.S. money supply yields prices in the $7,000 per ounce range depending on the definition of money supply. And the Chinese could certainly do better than $39,000 per ounce on the open market – at least for a while or until their ambitions became fully revealed at which point the market might simply run away from their plans and reach these stratospheric levels.
But the calculation does at least reveal how the U.S. is getting away cheaply by pushing Treasuries on the Chinese much as the British pushed opium 200 years ago. And China’s addiction seems just as hard to break. But China’s military strength is growing today compared to the 19th century when it was in steep decline. As China awakens from its new opium slumber, as it clearly is, the consequences are likely to be far more detrimental for the U.S. than they were for our British predecessors.
James G. Rickards is Senior Managing Director for Market Intelligence at Omnis, Inc., and co-head of the firm’s practice in Threat Finance & Market Intelligence. He is also a member of the Board of Directors. Mr. Rickards is a seasoned counselor, investment banker and risk manager with over thirty years experience in capital markets including portfolio management, risk management, product structure, corporate finance, regulation and operations.
Mr. Rickards’ career prior to Omnis spans an over 30-year period during which he was a first hand participant in the formation and growth of globalized capital markets and complex derivative trading strategies. He has held senior executive positions at “sell side” firms (Citibank and RBS Greenwich Capital Markets) and “buy side” firms (Long-Term Capital Management and Caxton Associates) as well as technology firms (OptiMark). For Mr. Rickards complete bio (click here.) To visit the Omnis web site (click here.)
You are correct – it does absolutely nothing to solve the ongoing trade deficit. I’m not real sure we even have the gold to do this sort of thing to begin with and I’m not the only one who senses that.
What is that quote? something like “those who do not pay heed to history are doomed to repeat it”
How about simply “Those who forget history are doomed…..period”
I believe Greg takes a very serious look at the big picture while trying to study its parts and formulate real answers, as opposed to the absolutely short-sighted, ignorant and insane ideas born in Washington that got us into this mess and hold out the promise of even greater messes to come.
I also have a dreadful suspicion it may be too late. I hope I’m wrong, but the signs are not encouraging.
China has nothing that I need. I don’t need gold what I need is a honest men to make a fair deal with. Gold was use in the past to complete a trade , it was just a way to show a mans worth. Now we have good information of the people who we make a deal with. It all boils down to a mans word. The banks, Wallstreet the governments of the world are full of unfair men whom have lost the respect of the everyday man and gold can’t give back there good name. A good name is everything. I put my trust in fair people not gold , we all should trade an barter fair if you don’t you’ll be left out of the new information world. Simple put gold was used as information in the past and can be used that way still, but other forms of information are cheaper and faster. I would be scared counting on gold to fix a lawless world.
Ron Paul is calling for an audit of our gold reserves. Like Tom says above, I’m not sure we have any gold left. If we do have the gold that our government claims, then why don’t we just count it and put the rumors to rest.
Any time you see this type of resistance, you can be sure things are not as they seem.
Personally I doubt if the U.S. even has the gold holdings it claims; how long has it been since there’s been an audit?
The last audit was 1958 I believe.
We have what China needs/wants. We are sitting on huge oil reserves that we are doing nothing to extract. Doing so would create real lasting jobs(drilling, infrastructure to support same and refineries, not to mention shipping). We would support out own needs and not be dependant on imports and become an exporter of energy.
I view China as a larger version of Japan, without the imperial delusions. China may be building its military capabilities but it is nothing compared to what the US spends. Even if China deploys a “Blue Water” navy, it will be used for littoral protection of “interests” in the local area of China. The chinese lack the imperial desires that plague the Russians or America. The “Great Wall” is evidence that the Isolationist tendencies of Chinese society is not unlike what America displayed for many years until the rise of the Military Industrial Complex. Now, Americas imperial tendencies are profit driven with market-expansion goals.
Back to the China/Japan comparison. Japan learned that its economic expansion ran into a wall of reality, that importing all resources is a real weakness and puts limits on dreams of hegemony. China parallels this in very similar ways. If left alone, Chinas economic growth miracle will collapse in a few decades. If the “Anexation of Siberia” contingency is enacted, this might change. Russia will undoubtedly object!
That is fine to repay China with gold but what have you accomplished?China believes it is holding a hammer over our heads with such large holdings and the market implications of such a position.We can always print the money and buy their holdings at the price we desire.We then could go to the gold standard and keep our gold.I do not see your supposition changing the continual trade deficit with the Chinese.I will defer to you.