8.3% Unemployment Lie

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

The most recent unemployment number is a total lie, and that lie was repeated all over the mainstream media (MSM).  Two sins were committed here, and I don’t know which one is worse.  The report was a sham, and the MSM reported that information without a single question about its accuracy.  In a story carried across the MSM spectrum, the Associated Press said, “In a long-awaited surge of hiring, companies added 243,000 jobs in January – across the economy, up and down the pay scale and far more than just about anyone expected. Unemployment fell to 8.3 percent, the lowest in three years.”  The report went on to say, “At the same time, the proportion of the population working or looking for work is its lowest in almost three decades. The length and depth of the recession have discouraged millions of people from looking for jobs. The better news of the past couple months has not yet encouraged most of them to start searching again.”  (Click here for the complete AP story.)

Here’s a headline for you.  If it were not for accounting gimmicks and what the government calls “seasonal-adjustments,” the unemployment rate would have gone up, not down!  In his latest report, economist John Williams from Shadowstats.com said, “January’s unadjusted unemployment rate rose to 8.8% . . . The only difference between those numbers and the headline 243,000 January jobs gain and 8.3% unemployment rate, is how the seasonal adjustments were applied.  There are serious issues with the current quality of those adjustments, and extremely small distortions in those seasonals can make big differences in the resulting headline data.”      

As far as “discouraged” workers who are not looking for a job, that is total rubbish put out by the government.  The real story is the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) simply has stopped counting more than 1.2 million of the unemployed in its report Friday.   Williams goes on to say, “The issues here suggest that the headline 8.3% unemployment for January has moved well outside the realm of common experience and credibility, into the arena of election-year political shenanigans.”   Williams is such a gentleman.   Please take into consideration the government’s “official” or “headline” number is only based on people being out of work for 6 months or less.  If the unemployment rate was calculated the way BLS did it in 1994 and earlier, the unemployment and underemployment would be 22.5% (according to Shadowstats.com.)

A recent report by a D.C. consulting firm estimates about 3 million long-term unemployed have been dropped from the unemployment statistics in the last few years.  (Click here for that story.)  The Obama Administration has predicted the “official” unemployment rate would be below 8% by the November 2012 election.  Heck, if you stop counting enough people, you can get the unemployment rate down below 5%, and that will make the 15 million or so unemployed feel really good.  Taxpayers are paying to be essentially hoodwinked by the BLS, and the mainstream media never questions these numbers.

Meanwhile, on the very day the fantasy unemployment numbers were released, it was reported that planned layoffs surged.  Reuters reported last Friday, “Employers announced 53,486 planned job cuts last month, up 28 percent from 41,785 in December, according to the report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.  January’s job cuts were also up from the same time a year ago, gaining 38.9 percent from the 38,519 layoffs announced in January 2011.”  (Click her for the complete Reuters story.)   With unemployment going up to 8.8% (without the government’s accounting gimmicks), this jobs report is especially dishonest, but almost every month the government lies to America about the so-called “recovery.”

Jim Willie at Goldenjackass.com says the government lies about the economic statistics to hide an economy teetering on the edge of an abyss.  In his latest post, Mr. Willie (who holds a PhD in statistics) said, “The entire system requires the constant banter of recovery, legitimacy, hope, and integrity. All are sorely lacking, glaringly lacking. The economic numbers have few honest series of data. My favorite honest series remains the income tax payroll withholdings, which screams of chronic recession in basic tones. . . . The US economy remains the weakest of all industrialized nations. Its corruption remains the highest in data reporting. See American Airlines for job cuts. See the Manhattan banking sector for job cuts. See state and local governments for job cuts. See college and university construction projects for job cuts.”  (Click here for the complete Jim Willie report.)

The Federal Reserve just announced an extension of 0% interest rates through 2014.  The Fed didn’t do this because it thought the economy was going great guns.  You can say whatever you like about the Fed (I think it should be audited on a regular basis), but those folks are not stupid.  For everybody to believe the economy is surging forward, you have to also believe the Fed and its hundreds of economists got it all wrong.  Last Friday, the government reported an improvement in unemployment when, in fact, it jumped up, which is why I call Friday’s jobs number an 8.3% unemployment lie.

Comments
  1. Denarius

    The theme of unemployment mis-reporting is now all over the WWW.
    Frinstnce :

    The Gigantic Conspiracy To Inflate Jobs Numbers In America

    http://www.businessinsider.com/presenting-the-gigantic-conspiracy-to-inflate-jobs-numbers-in-america-2012-2

    On The NFP Report Screeching

    http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=201495

    John Williams – Unemployment Rate at a Staggering 22.5%

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/2/5_John_Williams_-_Unemployment_Rate_at_a_Staggering_22.5.html

    8.3% Unemployment Lie

    http://usawatchdog.com/8-3-unemployment-lie/#more-7017

    A lighthearted but revealing view can be found here :

    In The News Today
    Posted by Jim Sinclair on February 4, 2012 @ 4:49 pm in In The News

    http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/02/04/in-the-news-today-1092/print/

    Shades of “Who’s on First?” to my mobius mind.

    • Greg

      Denarius,
      Thank you for the content.
      Greg

      • Mark

        Greg, Where are those we put in Congress to tell the American people the truth?

        • Greg

          Mark,
          Looks like we have been sold down the river except for a few members of the House and Senate.
          Greg

  2. FutureVoter

    The similarities between the our current situation and the scenario in Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged are frightening:

    Crumbiling economy,smart (in their own way) politicians and businessmen who try to prop up the system (and yet do nothing to end the corruption and bad decisions creating the problem) while profiting from its abuse.

    It’s like a kid who steals cookies from a jar on the kitchen counter and wonders later why there are no cookies left for dessert. Sure the kid was smart enough to figure out how to reach the jar on the counter despite the difficults, but afterward these skills are no where to be found in how to fix his lack of cookies later, instead they are wasted on covering up his crime so mommy doesn’t find out…

    Let’s just hope the fall out from this current crisis isn’t on par with the ending of atlas shrugged. ” sees dollar sign drawn in the air”…shivers

    Sorry for the simplified analogy, but its hard not to think of some of these people as children, wanting to have their cake and eat it too.

    • Greg

      FutureVoter,
      Simple is sometimes brilliant for that very reason. Thank you.
      Greg

  3. George

    Hi Greg,
    Great report, as usual. Obama could announce tomorrow that the economy has made a remarkable recovery under his direction and the unemployment rate is 5%. The MSM would run with it and report it as the gospel truth. In any event , we can be sure that the reported unemployment rate will be in the low 7’s by october.

    • Greg

      George,
      I think you are correct.
      Greg

  4. jay

    Greg.
    We the people have been ordered to stand in the corner of the room.
    Packed together, I, and many others can only think how long will we tolerate these lies ?

    • Greg

      Jay,
      Bravo man, bravo. I am insulted buy the lies tax dollars pay for.
      Greg

  5. Lew

    Nice article Greg.

    Only a bureaucrat could deliver the unemployment story with a straight face.

    I’m no mathematical genius, but it simply does not make sense that the rate can drop 0.3-0.4% with the addition of 242,000 jobs, when we were told month after month that the loss (or more accurately “new Claims for benefits”) of 400,000+ jobs rarely moved the percentage.

    While always the skeptic, I find it nearly impossible to believe any information coming from any government agency. A person can go to the BLS website and dig through their own numbers to find an unemployment rate easily over 12% (and a high of 22% not that long ago). You are right in stating that the “seasonal adjustments” consistently dilute the rates, but the glaring omission of large numbers of people every few weeks (for one reason or another) make the published numbers statistically irrelevant.

    I am becoming a believer that there are 2 agendas at work here. First, in the short term, get Obama reelected, then in the long term, wait for the economy to contract enough so the economy appears to have healthy growth or has at least stabilized.

    It is my opinion that there are far too many people out of the workforce to even hope for the growth we saw over the past 20 years. The age of consumerism has ended. The real trick will be explaining the global collapse.

    • Greg

      Thank you Lew and Sam.
      Greg

  6. Sam

    Dear Greg,

    Good story. I know that you can’t be on top of everything, and your weekly wrap-up last Friday missed this one by a few hours. It’s nice to know that we readers pointed this one out to you, and that you were able to research it and give it full coverage, and that in general, we’ve done some good.

    When I was going through graduate school we had to give deference to the BLS, to subscribe to it and use their numbers in business decisions. Being naive, I at first did. But then I found alternate sources, like ZeroHedge. At this time I taught a class at an unemployment office on how to live on unemployment (I was an “alumni,”), and I found talking to these people about the real numbers. I also used my instincts, or what I call “guerrilla investing,” and found that my research was true and the government a lie.

    Catherine Austin Fitts is right: the economy is decided on Main Street, not Wall Street. Pay attention to what is going on at local stores. If they can’t sell inventory even at huge discounts, you KNOW something is amiss. And if yet another small business closes its doors when it should be doing well, then you know something is terribly wrong. I tell people that, if they want to be good investors, they need to get away from all media, and feel the streets. Add anger and rudeness from people to shuttered doors, and you know there is danger close at hand.

    Just some ramblings.

  7. Art Barnes

    One neighbor women was hired back at her state park job last week at 16 hours a week, down from 40. Is she counted as now employed or a job added? Another neighbor found a new job after her company failed a year ago going from $16 an hour to $10. Is she now fully employed? My daughter has never before worked being just now of employment age and can’t find even a part time job. I don’t believe she is considered anywhere in any statistic. What is surprising is that even Fox News is not challenging the numbers as contrived or any other republican type media circles as well.

    With thousands immigrating, new 19 years old coming of working age, college grads entering the workforce, military duties ending,etc. it takes about 160,000 or so of jobs each month just to stay even. Adding in the people who went off of unemployment insurance after 2 years of benefits you begin to see the real trend here no matter who spins the numbers. Frankly, no matter what happens with the unemployed the presently employed are struggling as well with low wages, loss of benefits, reduced overtime, little or no raises, etc. Also, the small self employed one man contractor type persons is underemployed as well working below what the skill requires just to turn some dollars over. All said, the media marches on with white shoe parties, large salaries, and makeup artist. In order to continue their upward mobility to elite status they must continue to ignore the true realities of the everyday American and report all is well outside their heavy locked gates. Bloggers, the third world has come to our shores, how do you like our great lawmakers and media now as you downgrade your lifestyle for the benefit of them?

    • Greg

      Thank you Jay. Our country is being run by crooks.
      Greg

  8. Barry

    Awesome article Greg! Now we just need to get this article linked on Drudge and The Blaze!

    • Greg

      Thank you Barry I try to get Drudge to pick up my stuff but so far no luck. I’ll keep trying.
      Greg

  9. ncdirtdigger

    Pravda would be proud of these numbers!

  10. AndyB

    Greg: Thanks as usual for the “truth behind the headlines”. You should be on everyone’s financial/economic MUST READ/VIEW list just like ZH, the SgtReport, Jim Willie, Martin Armstrong et al unlike the establishment sites like Seeking Alpha and the Business Insider which spew government disinformation. I just hope you have an exit strategy when martial law is declared.

    • Greg

      Thank yop Andy B and Craig!!!
      Greg

  11. Craig

    Thank you Greg for printing the truth again. It amazes me what the continued corrupt government statisticians can come up with, then the MSM says it enough to make is sound legitimate. I guess that this will allow the Investment banks to get the last bit of “suckers” in the market so they have an exuse to short it and take more money from Americans. I think this was my warning, all cash, money market, and yes buy short term treasuries. When Greece defaults it will be utilized to flush alot of hard earned investment money into the pockets of the large Investment Banks. They will short everything right before they are tipped off, then spread the contagion theory. Once they steal enough, World traders will go into gold. First they steal, then cover up and create chaos. MF Global?? Vaporized money?

  12. Cessna Dave

    GREGG – You are dead center on target at 500m! The 1930’s Great Depression number was not much higher than the 22.5% either as I have read. What is upon us now will be worse as the social mores of the 1930’s have evaporated for 2012. I other words, it will not be a nice time to endure.

    We have no longer have cable or broadcast TV in this household as broadcast radio supplies enough “news propaganda”. Even radio’s few minutes of Pravda news, like last Friday’s news, contradicts itself with spin.

    I am currently trying to locate the reason for the use of a 0.4% inflation rate for January 2012 economic calculation(s). Somewhere in the fog of Friday’s news, I picked up on that 0.4% inflation number. Cannot confirm in which calculation & by which Federal agency. Not even my German Shepherd’s snacks have maintained a 0.4% inflation rate. No western style society has anything at a 0.4% inflation rate. What a lie….that is if I can ascertain this 0.4% was actually used as a basis in computations.

    Weird that one has to confirm a lie with determining if other lies were used in the construct of the final lie. Hmmm, best I go have another stiff coffee with a shot Bailey’s High Octane Irish Creme.

    • Greg

      Thank you Cessna Dave got the comment and analysis.
      Greg

    • Art Barnes

      Great depression 25 percent unemployed but serious deflation, not inflation and or stagflation as we have now. Deflation helped the people of the great depression because commodities like bread and other necessities went lower or did not increase, so whatever they had they could get by a little easier. This thing now is dangerous because of the inflation without wage increase, clearly on the road to third world for most of us.

  13. Valerie

    Thank you for your website!

    It’s refreshing to hear a voice that is speaking the truth for a change and not watering it down.

    I’m one of those small business individuals that have been severely affected by Obamanomics. And I do believe that the unemployment numbers are fudged in order to help re-elect Mr. Obama!

    Incidentally I’m also African American and not all of us ‘worship’ Mr. Obama. There is a growing number of us who are starting to wake up and really see the forest for the tress where his administration is concerned.

    I’m 55 years old, and have lost both of my small businesses and a couple of my rental properties to foreclosure. It’s been very difficult for me. This administration has been the most politically corrupt administration that I can remember. He’s anti- capitalism, anti-small business, anti-freedom of religion [Christianity, that is], anti-the U.S. Constitution, and anti-Semitic.

    I did not vote for him then, and I certainly will not vote for him now. And although I’m not that impressed with the GOP potential nominees, I guess it will have to be “Anybody but Obama.”

    Many of my friends who did vote for him in the last election are having serious second thoughts, although I’m not sure that they will vote republican, they’ll probably skip going to the voter box altogether.

    I believe it’s his anti-Christian policies and rhetoric that are waking them up, thank God!

    Anyhow I just wanted to thank you for your website I will pass it along to my friends. Keep sounding the alarm!

    Valerie

    • Greg

      Thank you Valerie for supporting it.
      Greg

      • jay

        Valerie.
        I (Jay) voted for president Oboma, Now im a into Ron Paul in part because of internet studies. Heres a good youtube vid you may like.
        http://youtu.be/cYIP8lGBtFQ
        Ron Paul the movie

  14. L, Majors

    Government unemployment stats are always misleading: When people no longer receive unemployment checks, it does not mean they have a job, nor does it mean that they are not looking for a job. Possibly they
    have gotten a job; but possibly they have not. It only means they are not receiving unemployment checks. The government does not release figures that truly reflect the amount of employment and non-employment.

    • Art Barnes

      I personally know three men who unemployment benefits ran out in December, all three have not found a job but are looking. They will work for just about any wage if offered to them. They are good Americans who deserve better; tragic.

  15. Chuck Allen

    Greg,

    Unfortunately for America we have a huge cadre of liars in every elected position in our great country. We the People cannot believe anything they say. That is why I constantly tell everyone “VOTE THEM OUT.” Vote all of them out, at every level, at every election. That is the real definition of “term limits.”

    As far as the MSM goes the only way to impact them is turn them off. On TV only watch movies without commercial interruption, Also, don’t subscribe to the trash called newspapers, or magazines. Money loss in advertising revenues will get their attention.

    Better yet read a good book, go fishing, spend more time with family and friends…and prepare for what is coming.

  16. Mike

    Mr. Hunter;

    Again, your reporting is spot on !

    It is tragic that so many bright, well educated, hard working people
    learn early in their working life and careers that for them to be
    successful and advance in government, banking, law and politics they
    must rely on the art of denial and lying to do so.

    Thank you.

  17. Will

    You know they think that if people start believing the reports they will turn around mentally, start spending and that the economy will recover. I am seeing many new cars with paper plates on the rosd in my small town and people are doing their grocery shopping at the dollar store, except those with SNAP cards, which are still eating steak.

  18. Chris

    Anyone with an ounce of common sense will realize 8.3% is garbage. You don’t need an economics degree to realize the B(L)S has been fudging the numbers (more so) since the Panic of 2008 began. It is also an election year and I doubt Pres. Obama wants to be known as one-term Obama.

  19. William

    All true Greg, you unlike others react to the white house news media with automatic disbelief which is the correct reaction. You uncover more than most and we thrive on your reporting, but what worries me is what else is going on that even you can’t find. See Greg I really do like you, that is when we don’t talk about the Occupy crowd.

    • Greg

      William,
      We don’t have to agree on everything to be allies. Thank you for your support of this site.
      Greg

  20. M SMITH

    The MSM is promoting the largest propaganda machine the world has ever seen that operates out of the NY Fed called the ESF created in 1934 by a act of congress. Thedailybell.com ran a piece about the ESF not long ago, it high lighted the massive propaganda that was used before WWII, how the CIA & FBI came to be & much more! Keep the herd in check while setting them up by cooking the books.

    Jim Sinclair has a new release people should listen to ASAP! He speaks the truth, I hope people will take his advice.
    Thanks Greg for a great piece of work!

    • Greg

      Thank you M Smith for your participation in this site.
      Greg

  21. droidX-G

    Well, I hit the 6 month mark mid Jan so I am not being counted any more. Oh, well.

  22. Kmac

    I am (usually) employed by my own construction corporation. I have had next to no income since the crash in ’07. UI doesn’t apply to corporate officers and I’m not counted in unemployment figures. I know many like me.

    Thank heaven my wife makes decent $$.

    • Greg

      Kmaqc,
      I hope it gets better for you and thank you for sharing your real world experience with us all.
      Greg

  23. CitznKate

    It certainly looks as if the MSM are once again carrying water for the emperor –I mean president. His approval ratings were in the porcelain convenience for a long time, but with enough rah-rah from the MSM, and buffoon/spoiler Gingrich keeping his hat in the ring for the red party, Obama will likely be re-elected. The one candidate who could win against him has been marginalized and ignored to the point that it will be nigh impossible for him to win the nomination. There are plenty of people who still think mister hopey changey is the messiah. One evening before I could get the channel changed on the TV, I saw the starry-eyed reaction of one of his supporters after his so-called state-of-the-union address, which was really a campaign speech. Sad.

    • Valerie

      I agree,

      It’s eerie how sooo many people have this supernatural blind stupor that comes upon them when he speaks. It’s like they’re ‘mesmerized’ by his words. Personally I don’t listen to him speak because it’s mostly lies anyhow. And speaking of lies, even when he flip flops, or back tracks the MSM and his blind worshipers make excuses for him. There are numerous videos of his flip flops [lies], yet they are simply ignored. It’s really sickening.

      Valerie

  24. Ambrose

    Greg,

    Great news from MSM! Unemployment is down. Stock is up. Sales are strong. Europe’s debt crisis will soon be resolved. Could we be dreaming?

    According to the January 2012 ADP National Employment Report (http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/), employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 170,000 from December to January on a seasonally adjusted basis. That number is 73,000 less than what BLS reported (243,000) – 30% less new hires. The recent drop in unemployment rate is nothing more than the Emperor’s New Clothes. Only those in Washington with super-vision can see the non-existing “Recovery”.

    As we are getting close to General Election, Obama administration and MSM will announce more fabricated “good” news.

    Ambrose

  25. Jan

    Every politician is talking the “jobs creation” talk, but they do not have a clue on how to create jobs in the private sector. Our state is going to give small business employers a tax break for hiring an unemployed worker. We don’t need employees, we need customers.

    Obama seems to have gotten a bounce out of these phony numbers, as well as Wall Street. I think the air will go out and they will have to create something else to credit Obama with for him to be re-eletcted. It is going to be one whopper after another, unless we go to war with Iran or Greece or other PIGS takes the financial world down.

    Whatever is coming, we count on Greg to keep us informed with the truth. Thanks Greg, you are doing a great job.

    • Greg

      Thank you Jan an Joe for the comments!
      Greg

  26. Vess

    The unemployment DID go up. It just went up less than expected.

    Total non-farm employment in the U.S., before seasonal adjustments, fell by 2,689,000 jobs in January. However, because it’s typical for the economy to lose a large number of jobs after the holidays, largely in retail trade, construction, and manufacturing, the BLS estimated that the “normal” seasonal decline in employment should have been 2,932,000 jobs in January. The difference between the two numbers, of course, was 243,000 jobs, which was reported as an increase in employment.

    http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120206.htm

  27. Karen Arsenault

    I live in Fla. my Husband has over 20 years experience as a Senior Fund Accountant he made 60.000 a year and got layed off at the end of 2008 his unemployment ran out at the end of 2010 he had to use cretit to keep us afloat and just a fwe months ago got a low end job making $7.50 an hr.at night and a part job 5 hrs. a day same wages as night job we are struggling to stay in owr home I can’t work due to illness and we have no health insurence my husband has had blood in his urine a fwe times a can’t go to the hospital as for he will surely lose his part time jobs and we will be in the streets he can’t file a chapter 7 as it will afect his job search,in other words they will not hire him in his fild. for having bad creit

    • Greg

      I am praying things will get better for you both. Thank you for sharing your story here.
      Greg

  28. Jacquie

    Same thing here in Canada, the employment rates refer to people with hourly paying jobs… I myself am I freelancer and am categorized as nothing in these stats. The unemployment rate is calculated using those who take ei, and only for a few months. It is ridiculous to believe it is accurate. How many people are on welfare? Food stamps? Disability? The stats are so misleading, they pacify the public. I guess if one is on social assistance they arent calculated in this stat at all. I feel sorry for those who believe in our corrupt system and think there is a chance it could work – It is insane.

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