Financial System Will Collapse Just a Matter of When-Laurence Kotlikoff
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Renowned economist Laurence Kotlikoff recently testified at the U.S. Senate about the runaway U.S. budget. How bad is it? Kotlikoff says, “I told them the real (2014) deficit was $5 trillion, not the $500 billion or $300 billion or whatever it was announced to be this year. Almost all the liabilities of the government are being kept off the books by bogus accounting. . . . The government is 58% underfinanced . . . . Social Security is 33% underfinanced . . . . So, the entire government enterprise is in worse fiscal shape than Social Security is, but they are both in terrible shape.” So, how much is America on the hook for in the future? Kotlikoff contends, “If you take all the expenditures that the government is expected to make, as projected by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), all the spending on defense, repairing the roads, paying for the Supreme Court Justices’ salaries, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, welfare, everything and take all those expenditures into the future . . . and compare that to all the taxes that are projected to come in, and the difference is $210 trillion. That’s the fiscal gap. That’s our true debt.”
Professor Kotlikoff goes on to say, “It will collapse. It is just a matter of when. I can’t say when, but all I can say it’s going to be too late. . . . We are seeing signs of this in the economy, but we are not picking it up that clearly. The macro economy is not doing all that well.” Kotlikoff goes on to say, “I think our financial system is really built to fail because it combines two things which really haven’t been addressed. . . . It combines leverage, borrowing by the financial middlemen and then investing in things that they don’t tell you they are investing in. So, there is opacity and leverage. These are the two major problems for the banking system. What we need to do is get rid of the leverage and get rid of the opacity. We need full disclosure of the investments of our financial institutions.”
Where can you get a safe investment? Kotlikoff says forget U.S. Treasury bonds. “I think they are one of the riskiest securities in the world because interest rates are likely to go up. I think the Fed is going to have to keep printing money because Congress isn’t paying our bills, and that’s going to lead to inflation eventually. So, I think long term Treasuries are extremely risky, and they can drop 5%, 10% or 20% overnight. That could put my bank that was viewed as perfectly safe today out of business. So we could have inflation take off and interest rates go up. We could have banks fail, and that could lead to runs on other banks. That’s the scenario,” says Professor Kotlikoff.
Professor Kotlikoff also has a new best-selling book titled “Get What’s Yours: The secrets to maxing out your Social Security.” It is currently the number one seller on Amazon.com. Kotlikoff says many people do not know the rules, and if you don’t it, could cost you tens of thousands of dollars. . . . We have two big problems. Social Security is in terrible shape. We need to fix that. Some people get more out of Social Security because they know the rules. That’s one problem. Problem B is Social Security is 33% under financed. Fixing problem A could make problem B worse. We need to fix problem A and B in the future.”
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Professor Laurence Kotlikoff, best-selling author of “Get What’s Yours: The secrets to maxing out your Social Security.”
(There is much more in the video interview.)
After the Interview:
For a copy of Professor Kotlikoff’s best-selling new book “Get What’s Yours: The secrets to maxing out your Social Security” please click here.
Let me share with you my suspicion. The Chinese and Russian decision-makers are very well aware of these facts which your guest disclosed to us, for at least 5 years. And the very 1st move away from the US$ was the Chinese-Brazilian swap, it was the test case. Now, the elites of other countries became aware the fact, how deep are the trouble of the US (that and the US treatment of their allies), and now they are jumping in the ant-US$ bandwagon.
IMHO, the Chinese Yuan wont be the reserve currency of the world fo very long, maximally 15-25 years. There are 3 simple reasons:
1st The Triffin dilemma.
2nd They are planning on time frame at least 100 years. So the international reserve currency will be based on gold or other commodity.
3rd The Russians came up with an alternative baking and strength determining system of national currencies (along with alternative financial system). I think it will be adapted in time span of 20-30 years.
My 2 cents
My wife introduced me to CLAY executive with HP, and MICHAEL a dentist.
They asked to me me to find out info about eco collapse. I made a list (long) to ask them questions, to take their intell. temp. “clueless”
I spent 1.5 hrs over dinner at o charlies and they were stunned. Here is a reply fro Clay C.
Allen, thanks again for all the excellent sources of information. I have begun to work my way through the data and have begun my preparation plan. I look forward to a follow up meeting in a few weeks at your convenience. I am looking at completely restructuring my finances. Is there anyone you could refer me to that would be able to provide counsel on converting from traditional investments to safer, value-retaining assets?
ALL PAPER MARKETS ARE RIGGED!!!
WALL STREET, INCLUDES, CD’S, MUTUAL FUNDS, IRA’S PENSION FUNDS ,ETC ARE CONNECTED TO STOCK MARKET.
YOUR ONLY PROTECTION IS GOLD AND SILVER, OR HARD ASSETS, LAND, JEWLERY, FOOD, GARDENING, AMMO, HUNTING SKILLS, FISHING SKILLS, CHICKENS, RABBITS.
I buy gold and silver from discount gold and silver, melody cederstrand. I just sent her 500.00 bucks yestarday in form of money order and she will send me some gold, and the rest in silver eagles, but remember I have bought all my survival assets, food and so on.
Jim sinclair says when the markets collapse, gold will go to 50k /oz, Jim willies predicts 18k /oz, silver to 640.00 /oz.
Ask your self, why does china import 1000 tonnes of gold a month from other countries, why does india buy gold, why did the netherlands, germany, austria, denmark venezuela, repatriate their gold?
GET OUT OF THE PAPER MARKET!!
GET A SMALL CAMPER, IN CASE U LOSE YOUR JOB, BUY FOOD, WATER FILTERS, INVERTERS, DEEP CYCLE BATTERIES, FREEZERS FULL OF MEAT, BUTTER, CANOLA OIL, CHICKEN, PUT #10 CANS OF PEACHES ON SHELVES, CANNED TUNA, SALMON, TURNIP GREENS, BEEF STEW, GET HONEY ETC….ETC…..ETC.
2:34 AM (5 hours ago)
call melody @ 800-375-4188 and ask her, not carla, your questions, as u asked me.
she is a christian lady, and will treat u properly.
Hi Greg, Earlier I had just started the Nomi Prins interview and had to put it on hold and now it is gone. Are you going to re-post it?
I have been watching you for years and have enjoyed your site and its guests very much.
Do you think your technical problems stem from the same source as Greg Mannarino’s problems or what happened to Harvey Organ?
I will be sending a donation.
Just sent you $20.00… I know its not much, but from that interview I heard you give on Coast to Coast changed my thinking completely. By the way donating process gave me some difficulties…
Did Kotlikoff ever get around to answering YOUR question:
“Where can you get a safe investment? ”
IF not, WHY not ?
My God Greg, this guy is another hack that has been spewing the same crap for YEARS. Aren’t you tired of listening to this crap ?
The MOST important question that needs FOCUS and CLARITY is the one you asked. If these clowns can’t answer it, GET some qualified and competent guests on that can. 95% of EACH interview you record SHOULD be focused on the recommended solutions for small time investors to SAFE GUARD whatever “nest egg” they have accumulated. And you should be questioning them about their proposed solutions in the interview.
Instead, hardly anyone wants to answer the question (other then to buy gold & silver)., and all they want to do is expound their doom and gloom.
OK, we should buy gold and silver. Is that the ONLY component of a solution that exists ? If it is, why bother doing any more interviews ? And if it isn’t the only component of a solution, why the hell aren’t you focused on delivering VALUE to your listeners.
What the hell is going on ?
Come’on Greg. I know you can do better. PLEASE.
Dan Barr –
Your comments are a bit rough …. suggesting that Greg has let down his listeners, but should be rather ‘focused on delivering VALUE to your listeners’.
Given that he does not charge for what he does, you comments are just plain unfair and stupid. I, and many others, actually enjoy listening to the different perspectives, and the information provided. It was enlightening to learn that the US Congressmen have not comprehended the big picture, probably because they are focused on the minutiae.
You are, I believe, still “entitled” to your own opinions about my comments, and those of almost anyone else.
I’ll disagree with you vehemently when it comes to needing to hear more doom and gloom. At some point, it becomes completely worthless to spend 95% of your efforts and time contorting about the “impending collapse”. This is how these hacks make their living. Sorry you can’t see that. Did it occur to you that the “guest” list at USAWATCHDOG.COM would thin out quite a bit if Greg focused his questions and the discussion with his “guests” on the topic of “PRO ACTIVE” actions a person can take to preserve whatever capital he has been fortunate enough to save from his years of labor ? That’s because these hacks don’t have any solutions to offer. They’re living is made shrieking their siren calls of doom and gloom to any and all morons that will listen…and then who will buy their books, subscribe to their newsletters, buy their freeeze dried food, their gold and silver bullion and numismatics, and their other “survival” gear. And this has been going on while the S&P has TRIPLED off the bottom. Do you understand ? These morons you and I have been listening to are full of crap. And just about the time you decide to get back into the stock market, no doubt it will Crash and Burn, while the pm’s rocket higher. It’s called MANIPULATION for a reason. And it applies to more then just the financial system. It’s primarily a MANIPULATION OF THE MIND. Wake up.
This Dan Barr fellow sounds like a radical who has infiltrated your website to cause nothing but trouble. If not, and as a consequence of his own very ELEMENTARY conclusions, he really does believe that folks who listen to your website are “morons”, then I guess that makes him a moron too, according to his own word! For me, I can only say thank you for all your hard work. I really appreciate your diversity of guests, their opinions, expertise and the time that you yourself have put into your website. I’m going to send you a donation.
Place your bets on the wheel of fortune my friend. You’ve got a 50/50 chance of being right. If Greg is right, and you don’t prepare now, all I can say is have a nice life. What’s left of it.
Dan Barr None, Everything is now on sale, buy now or wipe with it later!
Greg has stated that as best as he can ascertain, there isn’t a good long term investment in these highly manipulated markets. In the past, the closest thing to investment advice Greg has given has been buy gold and silver, have cash on hand outside of the bank, have food and water, protection, update your equipment and follow the one, true God.
As far as short term investments, with counter party risk and the time it takes to close out a position, get a check or wire transfer and then withdraw, if you are looking for a safe investment, I don’t really think there is one inside the rigged financial system.
Greg, did I sum that up correctly?
I read your commentary. Professor Kotikoff is just reconfirming the same information that I’m hearing from most experts who are following our failing economy and entire political system. We are all living on borrowed time now because war could break out at any moment, the entire economy is based on lies and misinformation, with the elite who are benefiting from all our misfortunes. Therefore, since everything is rigged with no basis in truth, there’s really no place to find a “safe investment”. How could there be? Prepare yourself with food, water and emergency supplies and buy gold, or silver or both if you can to preserve any wealth that you may have after everything falls apart, and then pray that you and your family survive this mess. Lora
I pasted your comment to Clay C from above post, GREAT COMMENT!!!!
I wish I could say it was worth the wait, alas, it was not. Professor Kotlikoff tells our politicians that their accounting practices are bogus to the sum of 210 trillion dollars and they respond with thank you Professor Kotlikoff but let’s get back to our phony way of doing things ’cause it keeps us in office. Ok, so much for that…nothing new there. Now, Professor Kotlikoff tells us he is pitching his own plan which is just another plan to perpetuate big government; just what we need. Then Professor Kotlikoff tells us Social Security is near bust or at least 33% underfunded, but wait, he writes a book that tells everyone how to make Social Security go bust even faster by collecting even more out of the failing system. This guy should run for office as a liberal!
Nice to hear different views but man, this one was very harsh on the ears or maybe I should say it was very “purple”.
Thanks Greg for what you are doing. Was sorry to hear of your tech troubles but glad that you are back up and running at full speed.
Dan Barr, so you want all the answers given to you in a nice neat package?Don’t know what planet you live on, but life here on Earth doesn’t work that way. Millions upon millions of people go to doctors looking for answers to serious and life-threatening ailments, and guess what? Most don’t get the answers they are looking for, even from the best doctors in the world. And you are complaining you are not getting nice, clear directions about your finances. Life is about taking in information and making choices.
And because this intelligent, educated man is not spoon feeding you guaranteed investment advice he is a “hack?” Grow-up, educate yourself and make your own choices on the information that is available to you. There are NO guarantees on anything in life.
Dan … if you are looking for investment advice that will generate a return of at least 20% on your money in the short term … Rick Ackerman just put out a forecast that gold will move down to $817.50 (from gold’s current price that’s about a 300 point drop or about 27% ) … now if Rick is right about gold … it seems that oil will also be moving down more … possibly to $32 dollars per barrel and silver to about $11.50 per ounce.
So here is where you should go for short term investment advice:
At Watchdog we have “longer time horizons” when we consider accumulating our gold and silver!
But Dan … before you go whole hog into shorting gold and silver … listen to Jim Rickards … http://pro.moneymappress.com/MMRBSSH39PPM3/LMMRR364/?h=true
In addition … trees don’t grow to the moon … so a US dollar decline is in the cards and that will give gold a boost … the fact that gold did not hit new lows near $1143 during the current dollar rise shows it has underlying subtle strength … like bully’s in the school yard who always picked on meek unassuming kids that didn’t like getting into confrontations … would many times find themselves running home crying with bloody noses when they pushed an unassuming kid to far … same with the dollar and gold … gold bears should not underestimate gold “weakness” … because gold is standing its ground … and that should be a clear warning to the bears of gold’s underlying strength and confidence!
Thought about your post and hoping you will get this reply. For over a year now my husband and I have been putting up food. We belong to a food group on a Yahoo group
(preserving food) which has really helped me. I can understand the feeling of panic not knowing what to do, but when we began preserving food, we were so busy that we lost the fear. We pressure can vegetables, meats, etc. We also dehydrate food with a dehydrator we bought. Several people are experienced on youtube – ldsprepper, noras kitchen, lindas pantry, imstillworking, bexarprepper. They have all helped me to begin the journey along with the Ball canning book. You won’t have time to worry you will be so busy. The yahoo group has experienced people in it who give advice when asked questions. They have years of experience.
I also buy canned goods from Honeyville and Emergency Essentials which last 20 years. One poster said to find the one true God. He can lead into everything we need.
To heck with fear !!
Value??? I bet you have donated zero to this site. Typical peanut gallery liberal.
“all they want to do is expound their doom and gloom.” Well Danny boy the day you take off your government issued tin foil hat that protects you from the inconvenient truths that your main stream television “programming” refuses to cover you are going to be in for economic culture shock. So you think ground beef is at $5.00 a pound because most of the cows died and there isn’t supply to meet demand or maybe all prices are up because the dollar is getting ready to be vaporized? Hey pal, you keep swatting the flies and grumbling from the balcony and don’t worry about the rest of us.
Remember; When facing economic, natural or man made disaster it’s better to be prepared 10 years early than have to look your family in the eyes when you realize you are 10 minutes too late.
Have a pleasant day.
Mr. Kotlikoff is a smart man and knows his way around the intricacies of economics. Unfortunately, he is also an Elitist, with a capital ‘E’…
I have mentioned it before on this site, and again today, Mr. Kotlikoff did not disappoint with his views on just ~Who~ should be in charge of issues such as Healthcare, climate change policy, etc. “We should have a panel of Doctors decide…” I believe were his words when speaking of who should be responsible for crafting and implementing a ‘universal’ health care program… In other words, you’re not astute or educated enough to understand the complicated nature of these rather heady policy constructs, and so therefore these decisions are better left to your benevolent masters – Ooops, I meant, ‘public servants’ – or ~Their~ masters in Big Pharma, Big Insurance and Big Academia…
You want to ~radically~ change health care for the betterment of all Americans, Mr. Kotlikoff? I am happy to suggest the remedy:
Allow the return of the Doctor-Patient relationship, sans 3rd parties with their slimy, greedy hands in the middle, waiting to collect… Let doctors treat patients and craft payment plans of their own – like we used to do – and it worked. Get ‘Big Pharma’ out of the way. Get Big Insurance out of the way. Work to get Big Lobbying by these same players out of the way. Use your talent, notoriety and influence to Do That Professor, instead of a new-fangled way to FORCE people into contractual agreements that the Government has NO Business being in, regardless if one Supreme Court Justice rules on the vagaries of commerce and taxes, when his mind should have been on the ‘spirit’ of Constitutional precept…
No personal disrespect to Mr. Kotlikoff, but folks, if you value what freedom and Liberty you have left, while trying to scratch back a crumb or two of the pie that has been Stolen from you, listen carefully to what a man like this is ~really~ saying. All he can offer, like most of his contemporaries in high academia and politics, is MOAR Government. Albeit, shaped and shifted to fit a ‘new & improved’ paradigm, it is more Government any way you slice it. And it doesn’t take a professor-level intellect like Mr. Kotlikoff to show just what More Government has $purchased its citizenry – even over the last 25 years…
Greg and AP,
There is a chasm between Indoctrination and Transparency.
Telling Congress something they don’t want to hear (bcos they already know) might seem a big feat …but there are many others who have already said much the same thing both within and outside the walls.
The Solution please if you will ?
To chime into the debate over many of the other points raised by AP seems to indicate that Dr. K is using his influence to create a public opinion/awareness which is skewed/biased. This tactic has been used by Central Planners/ Banks for centuries…..we trust them to do the right thing…be ethical in their actions……and for what ? To control the populace to the nth degree. Should we be wary of those with apparent good intentions but have ulterior motives ? YES !!!
we should not care about the motivation/agenda of the good professor. Just the fact that he is exposing the real numbers, rather than the manipulated ones, should be enough. Although, to be honest, none of these guys tell the entire truth; that the decimation, and ultimate destruction of the middle class, the less than 3rd world nature of US public education, and the incremental poisoning of US citizens from GMO foods, flouride, soon-to-be-mandated vaccines, chemtrails, and radiation from Fukushima, all point to a purposeful plan that will incrementally lead to an Orwellian nightmare.
I hear calamity is 6 months from now,,,, “soon”, etc…. I have been hearing this for 6 years
Silence is Golden,
Where’s Twisted Sister? I’d like to hear his take on this.
Where’s your opinion J. You surely don’t need validation from TLS ?
Larry more Gruber than Mannarino!
Thanks for this interview, very interesting.
From what I understand, the current governmental approach of not accruing for future liabilities has not impacted us so far because of the past demographic trends. Now that the baby boomers, a huge demographic, are moving out of the work force, then the trend will work against the government’s policy.
The only short term remedy is to massively increase immigration, but that solution is not practical given the massive levels needed and given the impossibility of continual exponential growth. Nature runs on the principle of exponential growth, look at the growth of a tree, but nature eventually all dies. This seems to be the solution we are facing.
Nice article Greg, I know in my heart that the answer to this question for when the market collapses, is in this video on the Mystery of the Shemitah.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyrZCZv1W1k It all makes perfect sense.. But I do know that I have made peace with our lord, & he will take care of me.. Elul 29 Sept 13,2015
Agree totally. Greg here is the big news of the week just in case your readers missed it.
There is a reason that Germany, France, Italy and host of other countries are running to the bank of China for safety. The collapse HAS STARTED! Let me repeat HAS STARTED! The derivative market in Europe will break when Greece leaves the EU in a few weeks and they know it. The Russians have offered them a way out and Greece will take it. The safe bet for the timing of the impact here is in September, which just happens to coincide with the start date of the RMB exchange system worldwide.
People can play economics 101 all they want to, or arm chair philosophize all they want to about the implications and timing of the events coming, but at the end of the day it is meaningless if they are not prepared. I hear many of your readers ask questions about investments. How about and investment in LIFE. Don’t you people get it? This is the end of the entire global economic system. How dumb can you be, to ask Greg questions like that? Use what time you have left to do something meaningful, like save your life by preparing.
Japan will be the next to go with the Bank of China, along with South Korea.
The question is, what will they do with all those dollars if they are buying RMB bonds? Someone? Anyone?
Jerry. China is investing in South Korea at a massive rate. You my like this read.
Great guest. Really look forward to you having him as your guest. He just exudes confidence and professionalism. I really believe him when he talks about the “raisin brains” in the U. S. Senate. What a bunch of dumb-azz bozos, running from one committee meeting to another, accomplishing absolutely nothing, except when voting themselves another benefit at taxpayers expense. Can’t you just picture them scurrying around like a bunch of cockroaches. LK just reinforces my long-held opinion that all of us must fend for ourselves, because when the SHTF, and LK said as much, these dirt bags will be no where to be found. As you so often say, “BUY PRECIOUS METALS.”
Thank you, Greg for continuing to sound the alarm. I also wanted to tell you last night about 9:00 pm CT, I was reading the comments of Nomi Prins’s video when I clicked on a URL link in one of the comments; about 2 minutes later when I clicked the return arrow, your page had a weird ERROR message (one I had never seen before)….guess that is the technical error with which you have been dealing. Of course, my first thought was, “this must be too close to the truth if they’re after Greg now”; but that’s just the conspiracy theorist in me!
Something else this guy Greg. Thanks for being patient and letting us here his insights. Great Job. K.
Margret Thatcher one said words to the effect that “socialism works fine until you run out of other people’s money.” Social Security sprang from the womb of socialism. Social Security,the world’s largest chain letter,is beginning to run out of other people’s money. The Federal Government can hardly raise taxes without harming the economy and causing economic hardship.They can hardly borrow much more because they’re debts even now are unsustainable. The Federal Government can,through the Federal Reserve,print money or issue credit which is backed by debt which,in the long run,creates run away inflation,which in reality,is a hideous hidden tax. Social Security can only survive by sending out checks backed by fiat currency that loses it’s purchasing power to the point of being worthless. In the end,the best thing is to phase out Social Security,leaving the system in place for those either retired or are near to retirement and then to let people,as we did for almost 2 centuries, plan and save for their own retirement. Anything else would be grossly unfair to the younger generations. There is no other choice. Professor Kotlikoff ,like many misguided individuals, thinks that it is the proper role and function of the American Government to run people’s lives. Prof.Kotlikoff,like most statists,thinks that we can make the system work as long as we follow his advice on how to run it. You can’t. Not by Prof.Kotlikoff’s vision of government,taxes,central banking and fiat currency. Social Security and Medicare are going down. Maybe not today but someday soon. It will go down because the money paid out will have become worthless.
LJ, I wish Greg would install a “thumbs up” button.
Complaining about the deficit when you are in favor of massive government programs is like an alcoholic complaining about happy hour
After reading LJ and Terry’s posts, I agree with Terry…
We could use a thumbs up button. I definitely wanted to give LJ a thumbs up!
Agree LJ…another thumbs up from me. I am sure you are all familiar with this comment from Mr. Greenspan. He comes right out and tells a great truth. No guarantees on purchasing power from a social security check.
The truth cuts like a knife , and it is hurting the people who do
not want the truth to get out . That is why you will continue to get
problems with your web page. Hang in there Pal , you have a lot of
people supporting you.
Unfortunately Professor Kotlikoff takes the same tone as the politicians by telling them they are 58% UNDERFUNDED. This is exactly what they want to hear.
When will they be made to understand they are 58% OVER-SPENT?
I find it disturbing and EXTREMELY contradictory for L K to be espousing the virtuous world he portrays by castigating the Congress with their apparent nonchalance of the ACTUAL DEBT situation…..and then to produce a Book nonetheless, about how to “Get What’s Yours”……I mean really what gives ?
In essence….we have a Bankrupt System, Bankrupt Country and Bankrupt Government who consistently provide a false narrative, live in fantasy la la land, are stealing from the future and printing 24/7/365 to keep things afloat. Larry suggests …what the heck…..while it still works ……make sure you push the envelope even further…..grind on the Government……they/ WE need more debt. That in MY Book is tantamount to teaching the masses to accept a set of beliefs without questioning them. That is Socialism/Communism hands down.
For an esteemed Economist who should know a thing or two about fixing the holes in a sinking ship….he is not providing the solution to the already “TOO BIG” Government. The solution is about changing the agenda….Investment in Capital Goods/ Infrastructure…..Structural reforms to the Tax/Health/Social System….job creation.
An important note to consider is this: A $210TLN fiscal gap is a notional amount based on expected liabilities being met/honoured.
A bankrupt entity, once it declares itself bankrupt, removes itself from being obligated to pay any outstanding debt/liabilities.
The notional liabilities (Social security/Medicaid, Medicare ) are contingent liabilities. They are in simple terms …a footnote. Not required to be recognised as a liability.
We are being programmed to accept a mindset of greater degrees of socialism/communism. Wont be long before free money will be available to every citizen…..why not…..look at the proliferation of Food Stamps/ SNAP !!!
Some Critical Thinking is required. Without it…a Dumbed down American population and eventually a social disaster. How much lower can it get ?
SiG, I,for one, intend to squeeze the max out of SS. They have taken a lot of money from me since 1974. I want it back. It’s mine. It always was.
If LK has a way to legally map out the best way to do that, I’m all for it.
“Entitlement” is the death of the country. It was borne out of the Great Depression and has manifested itself to now being a significant part of the GDP (which is 70% consumer based).
Let me clear the air….ITS NOT YOURS OR ANYONE ELSES.
Go ahead …try to do your best to break the bank….Good luck with your quest. I mean that sincerely.
BUT…just be aware …they don’t have it …its not held in some Reserve in the Canary Islands. It got sucked into the POOL of inward receipts.
ITS GONE….DONT YOU GET IT ???
In order to pay current and future SS…They have to borrow it into existence….Whiskey Tango Foxtrot…..that’s the whole point of Kotlikoff….its a fiscal GAP of $210TLN.
The Agenda here is to make the population totally dependent on the Government. Destroying capitalism is critical to that policy. With ZIRP & QE forever normal business cycles and fundamentals do not & cannot exist. It will be death by a thousand cuts….or as CAF puts it …”SLOW BURN”. They will take it only so far as they can…..then they will either decide to discontinue outright or increase the age of entitlement or de-populate. No middle ground.
I am having trouble hearing you lately is your microphone Ok?
‘Cheap’ food leads to higher medicare costs, simple economics.
Sorry not a fan of this guy
He is a central planning universal healthcare guy, which would cost massive amounts and add to the deficit he is complaining about.
He’s not the first guy to state the obvious to congress that we have a massive deficit
Brother Smaul–here’s the problem: if we live within our means, then we can’t buy votes, enrich ourselves, pick winners and losers and be in control, and all that come with that. Honest money and following the Constitution enable the Everyman. The country has not been free since Coolidge/Hoover. Maybe this looming crisis is an opportunity. Thanks for your input here. Best always. PM
Ahem! Here is another super famous central planner also complaining like Larry. Certainly THIS GUY knows what he is talking about:
I agree with the assertion that our budget is underfunded, but the problem is that the budget is bloated with expenses that need to be eliminated. It seems that Mr. Kotlikoff always pushes for higher taxes to solve this problem while never talking about the expanding welfare and warfare state and the need to reduce the size of government. He also talks about the lack of savings. I’d like to ask how can a person save more if we increase taxes by more than 50%???
And Mr. Kotlikoff’s healthcare solution??: Universal healthcare paid for by the government through the extraction of taxes (involuntary transfer payments) by an all powerful central government with the care provided by ‘private’ industry. This is the continued merger of the government and the corporation. What form of government is this? Not the Constitutional Republic defined by our founding documents.
Dr- see my comments above. I give Larry little credit for pointing out that we have a deficit. Even Obama knows that. I take away credits when he talks about universal health care, big government and higher taxes
Since a $5 trillion dollar deficit is “chicken feed” to Congress (it is only about $15,000 dollars for every man, woman and child in America) and doesn’t seem to mean much to them … why doesn’t Congress just go ahead and double it … but this time (instead of giving the money to the banks) send a $15,000 dollar check out to every man, woman and child in America … and see what happens to the economy … debts will be paid down … money velocity will increase … corporate bankruptcies will be stopped dead in its tracks … sure some people will put the money into gold and silver but the less economically sophisticated Americans which make up the silent majority are going to put the money into bank savings accounts and CD’s preventing bank failures!
Moving from the economic to political stage it seems the US has now decided to “anoint” Iran as the regional super power in the middle east and Israel is going to be left out in the cold … especially now that Netanyahu has won re-election.
To be the US’s “newly appointed” regional super power it goes without saying that … Iran will be allowed to have as many (or more) nuclear weapons then Israel … Israel really blew it by not making peace with its neighbors all these years … the entire world is now disgusted with the endless slaughter of women and children being perpetrated by both sides … and the situation is not going to improve with Netanyahu back in power … vowing never to allow a Palestinian State! … so the US has pivoted east!
I know … but Israel did bite the bullet and turned the other cheek with Egypt “even after being attacked by a nation that intended its destruction” … and a peace accord made with “a former enemy” that has held! … I don’t want to see Israel left out in the cold and ostracized by the world community the way South Africa was … sometimes you say to yourself your enemies “are so evil” all they deserve is death … but then that’s probably exactly what your enemies are saying about you … biting the bullet has to come from both sides … why can’t it start with a simple agreement (No Women … No Children)!
That sounds a lot like the plan that Greece followed.
When a Country layers on regulations and requirements that you must have so many minorities and so many woman and you have to hire x-prisoners to try to offset the lawsuits from prejudice and sexual harassment among others. You kind of force companies to move overseas or at least across the border. What you’re left with is mostly food servers and retail jobs . Union jobs are left but car manufacturers had to be bailed out because of high pay and benefits and even Ford needed money from the citizens to rebuild plants and machines. GM still isn’t paying federal taxes even thought they hid problems with there cars that killed citizens, the same citizens who were forced to bail them out.
And lets not forget the Government jobs. Federal, State , County and City.
Never mind!!!. Its tooooo depressing.
I’m getting tired of waiting but I’m now looking forward to when the shtf.
Interesting to note that while our fathers and mothers in Washington see a need to tell us what to feed our children, what kind of light bulbs we have to use, what kind of health insurance we must have, what kind of shower head we can buy, how many gallons of water we can use to flush our toilets, and on and on we are left on our own when it comes to social security. You would think a loving government that cares so much for us would tell us how to maximize our retirement benefits; in fact they would perform the calculations for us. I have done quite a bit of research on maximizing the benefit and believe I have at least a better understanding than most people but I will be getting a copy of Mr. Kotlikoff’s book for sure. Thanks Greg for such great interviews.
..and in physics..distance = rate x time. time = distance / rate. Seems to me a well defined mathematical relationship !! not trying to attack the guest…just saying..
The FED took away the word “patience” with regard to interest rate hikes & Wall Street marched on higher, I tell you Greg can’t make this stuff up! Is there anyone actually running this ship or are the insane running the asylum.
On another note I hope you include Israel’s election outcome & its implications on Obama & Kerry’s “nuke deal” in your wrap up this week, its a much bigger story than reported by the main street press. My opinion, which accounts for nothing, is that Obama tried to effect the election against the Prime Minister & it backfired; interesting nevertheless.
Brother Art, you said a mouthful! Your opinion, my opinion don’t count. And we praise Mr. Lincoln for his words: that government of the people, by the people, and for the people shall not perish from the earth. Maybe we’re not dead yet, but government has the pillow on our face, and it’s getting critical. Thank you for your stance. Best always. PM
You know you are doing a great job when they hack your web site!!!
Obviously, the other side ‘Fears’ instead of ‘Fear not’.
It seems to me, time is running short for those who make Monopoly money!!!
If I have it right, you will be more determined than ever to bring your website to the public.
This guy may have good intentions and believe what he’s saying but at the end of the day, he’s a socialist that still believes it’s the governments responsibility to take care of us. He offers no real solution outside of government or the current system, he seems to think that the system can just be “fixed”. Wrong answer Greg. The system is the problem. The best advice he could’ve gave was to say walk away from this government Ponzi scheme and invest in yourself and educate yourself, but instead, he still thinks people should rely on social security. Sorry, he doesn’t resonate with me.
Happy to see others pointing out what I see too. It’s a common error to listen to, or worse to vest power in people who can correctly identify an issue.
The danger is in thinking that because they have correctly identified a problem that their solution in the right one.
Paul T, Do you plan to collect your SS?
Not at all.
Ever notice that Dodd-Frank spoonerizes nicely into Fraud-Dank? (Frodd-Dank).
I really wish it had been called Frank-Dodd for an even better spoonerizing.
Big Government guy but smart. And spot on with the budget, SS, and financial system problems we are facing. They will never be dealt with. Our politicians are a) not smart enough, and b) don’t think past the next election cycle. Everyone of them thinks they can kick the can until that next election. One of these days they are going to kick that can and it’s going to explode…. Chip
I love the way they spin it.
labor market remained on solid footing despite slowing economic growth
What they don’t say is the so called solid footing is on a high wire some 1000 feet above ground.
Other than that things are great.
LOL saw that too. Reuters loves to say “solid” “strengthening US economy” “Robust job gains” “lofty home sales” “buoyant consumers” All propaganda
This fellow is very hard to listen to with his halted speech.
What is the difference between Professor Kotikoff and all the other Keynesian trained economists and meglo-maniacal politicians who have gotten us into this economic mess we are in? I don’t believe for a minute that the politicians didn’t know that our government accounting is rigged! And this guy is a professor, teaching our younger generation! I suppose he is all for SDR’s also, which was set up by exactly the same economists and politicians who are destroying our current monetary system.
But much more than that, he is promoting another government run health care debacle. News flash…..I don’t want the da** government involved in MY health care. I don’t want socialized medicine. Set up a non-invasive system for those who are on welfare, but leave the rest of us alone. Why would I want the people who are bent on destroying my way of life, and persecuting me to have inside knowledge of exactly what meds I take and what my health issues are? Shall I tell my doctor that I am temporarily depressed over a death in the family so that he can enter that information into a government controlled computer program thereby giving them reason to deny me a shotgun permit? Anything that you discuss with your doctor is available to the government and any person with access to the health care computer system. Besides, name one department of the government which is run competently.
I concur Calgirl. “Mr. Charisma” is a government tool.
Iona in Santa Cruz
Reading between the lines…..LK is part of the CP team !!
I am reading the same book, same page and same verse….same line too. 🙂
A few years ago Obama appointed a commission to come up with a balanced budget plan. The team was headed by former Senator Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles. They did come up with a plan to save the system but it involved painful cuts. Obama did nothing with the plan. Now it may be too late. Both George W Bush and Obama have skyrocketed the national debt to 18 trillion dollars. We either face hyperinflation or default or a combination of those two choices. The problem we have is most people have no idea what is going on and worse than that, they don’t want to know what is going on. Meanwhile the stock market keeps rocketing up. The savers and responsible people continue to be robbed. It’s difficult to be optimistic with all that is happening.
Bright flash over Russian skies.
I have my own theory. EMP detonation rehearsal for war with NATO. I find it interesting that the Russians (according to some sources) are in full scale preparation for war. It is said that they are preparing bunkers for civilian occupation as quickly as they can. One thing you can say. It seems that the Russian oligarchs care more about their people than ours do.
Talk about poking the Bear with a stick? This is INSANE!
Russia is on high alert right now, and the military is marshaling for war. What is the purpose of this exercise if it isn’t to provoke the Russians? I would really like to know?
More spin on the Greece debacle. Wondering what Troika is?
My take is, a loan that can’t be repaid. Or in my neck of the woods we call it “pounding sand down a rat hole”. Either way there is no way Greece is going to pay this debt back. The EU? The EURO? They’re both part of history now. They’re gone. The American people just don’t get it because they are to busy watching ” Dancing with the Stars” to notice the sledge hammer that’s coming down.
Greg I’m still baffled why the MSM isn’t covering some portion of what’s going on out there. Hilary Clintons emails are a waste of time.
Jerry, what are they going to do? Start telling the truth? Growing a conscience? The MSM are VESTED in the phony-baloney scam. That’s all they’ve got. Best always. PM
Russia builds bunkers for the citizens. Amerika builds bunkers for the politicians.
Let’s get one thing straight; THERE IS NO DEBT.
Money is borrowed from the “private” bankers (the Fed) at interest…… OK so far?
The “private bankers “print” it from NOTHING………….. Got that?
So nothing of value was given to the government………….. Which means
THERE IS NO DEBT.
If there is no debt … perhaps there is no life?
The Bible may hold an answer …
In the beginning before the “Big Bang” there was no debt … similarly before the “Big Bank” there was no debt.
Then by the word of God life was created out of nothing in an infinite universe … similarly by the word of the Fed an infinite universe of debt was created from nothing.
The parallel is uncanny … could there actually be a link between life and debth?
Perhaps … if the Fed stops printing … the entire universe will stop expanding and a derivative implosion will collapse everything in upon itself … and all life as we know it … will cease to exist!
IF “NO DEBT” MEANS “NO LIFE” … THEN WE BETTER HURRY TO THE NEAREST BANK AND TAKE OUT A LOAN!
Hey- I agree.
The US people are not liable for any of these debts, since we never approved them, besides which, our Constitution was hijacked anyway in 1913 with the Federal Reserve. And if you consider all the statements about the US being a corporation which pays dividends to England, well, then it’s their problem. Seems to me, they made their own bed. I’m grateful to China and Russia for taking on the hegemony…we don’t seem able with the current House and Congress to change anything on our own. The outside will force changes on the US govt. And people will begin to wake up. Hopefully.
I didn’t agree to the wars. Or the Chem trail spending, the invasions, and health care.
It’s really the Banksters problem to collect. US people can’t pay more tax. And won’t.
I’m not buying into the “debt” being mine.
Screwpulls. So seeing you are correct. There will be no currency. Currency operates from confidence of debt to be repaid. What happens when the rest of the world is forced to abandon our currency to save themselves ?? The fed then cant print fast enough. Deflation and Hyperinflation Nation. We here call it a collapsed currency. Your point is valid in a world that has confidence in the dollar as a currency. That confidence is fading fast.
I must add. Why cant we raise the interest rate PIONT 25% These are questions to consider.
I guess then that the $4TLN balance sheet of the FED is bogus too…considering they purchased nothing from nothing.
Oh that’s right it is……..WORTHLESS !!
Thanks for this outstanding interview with a such a distinguished guest whose knowledge of current data and economic history, analytic sophistication, and first-hand experience with policy-makers made for a most-enlightening conversation. Kotlikoff’s reference to the Emporer’s New Clothes is so unsettling becomes it comes directly from the Washington court.
The extreme moves in the market (up/down) these last few weeks is a harbinger of things to come……… But none of that compares to the dollars +2.50 move down yesterday. If that doesn’t wake everyone up today it went UP +2.50………… These are very unhealthy, disturbing (and historic) moves………Prepare accordingly.
Like the idea of trying to “wake up the people”. Too bad this guest seems to rely upon socialism for the fix. What we need is someone how preaches “self sufficiency”, like Stephan Molyneux.
Agreed. But then again the Wall Street crowd were complaining not long ago…about the lack of volatility. Go figure…..sorry. 😉
Greg: This is a very smart man!! BUT, he wasn’t telling Congress anything they don’t already know. Several years ago- My insider friend- you know who- told me that Congress was told behind closed doors about the debt and that it would not ever be paid.
They were told it didn’t matter if it ends up at $100 trillion or $500 trillion- it won’t be paid. So Congress spend like drunkin sailors- Obama to spends more per year than all the Royal’s in England combined.
People must believe AND REALIZE- what ever Congress says -IT’S A LIE!! OBAMA IS NOTHING BUT A LYING MACHINE.
USA AND WORLD ECONOMIES ARE NEAR THE COLLAPSE- BEEN TOLD IT’S PLANNED FOR SEPT. OF THIS YEAR, 2015.
Greg I like the fantasy term for the dreamers, but then again they are going to have it hard enough. Let us just keep that name among the wake ones..LOL
thanks, good info
Exactly …my point (see above). They can’t be that stupid. They will push it until they destroy it.
Dr. Kotlikoff talks about how S.S. is a Ponzi scheme.
He says, “they’ve been told they paid for it and they did pay for it”…
I look at is as the dollars were taken, and then they were spent. To me, it’s as simple as that. I’m with Lysander Spooner, ‘I never signed no social contrac’. Therefore, the dollars were not voluntarily paid into a plan that I approved of and signed my name to. No, the dollars were TAKEN. And that’s only the half of it! Your employer is required by law to give the Government the same amount that you see in F.I.C.A. taxes ‘taken’ out of your check, without you being told about it, and without it showing up on your check. It’s dollars that you would have received if you were actually entitiled to keep the fruits of your labor.
Now, regardless of what people were told they were paying for, what is it that they are actually paying into? If it’s ponzi scheme, as he refers to it earlier in the interview, then what benefits will come out it? If it’s a ponziu scheme, then for the people that “paid into it”, doesn’t there need to be greater fools that keep, ahem, paying into it, in order for the earlier payers to get anything at all in return? I get the feeling that Kotlikoff is hoping that there continue to be greater fools ‘paying’ into the ponzi. I say that because he certainly does not strike me as “the buck stops here” principled kind of person calling for an actual end to the ponzi scheme. I get the strong feeling that he wants to perpetuate the ponzi with this notion of ‘I paid into it’… I don’t care if it’s a ponzi, I paid into it. I don’t care if it’s crimnal, I paid into it! Okay, that’s putting words into his mouth which I shouldn’t do. But where is he going with the Social Security Ponzi Scheme? I don’t see him saying that we need to end it, right now. And I ask, if not now, when?
LK is smarter than most give him credit for. Apply some critical thinking (which you have) and you uncover some truths. If it smells like a rat……..
The Social Security Ponzi Scheme will work out just fine if the government can make everyones lifespan shorter … and they are working overtime on getting our average lifespan down below 65 (using GMO food, hormones, antibiotics, corn oil, etc. in our food supply and raising the payout age … soon a point will be reached where they will never have to pay out one dime to anyone … and all the Social Security money they collect will be free for them to use in any way they like … so Congress doesn’t take Dr. Kotlikoff seriously … the future payments he says will come due in the future will never come … because Congress and the governments food and health system is working diligently to “lower the average lifespan” below the age when SS checks will ever be due!
The Government has been telling Americans for years to eat more corn oil … it is almost everywhere … in our breads, cakes, processed foods, etc. … and it is deadly … studies show both soy and corn oil (which are genetically modified and contain toxins) causes organ breakdown of the liver, kidneys and heart!
So along with raising the retirement age a more “subtle” strategy to lower the American lifespan is in play … the only thing these oils should be used for is to make gasoline!!
Those who want to begin research on the deadly effects of genetically modified corn and soy oil can start here … http://undergroundhealthreporter.com/cancer-causing-ingredients/#axzz3UsjzQ5Ed
Paul, Respectfully, ALL of that GMO, antibiotic etc is a load of leftist BS. Pure baloney.
James Howard Kuntsler predicted what Fed would do….very spot on predcition…..eerie…
I ‘m sure that on Wednesday Janet Yellen will make a big show of surgically removing the word “patience” from the Fed’s so-called “guidance.” I’m inclined to predict that the Fed will make a gesture of raising the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points or 25 measly hundredths of a percent. That will be as far as they dare go. They will make this lame gesture in the face of gales of bad news about what is really going on in a disintegrating global banking system, and also the devastation in real economic activity. Within a matter of weeks the oracle will step back out of her grotto and not only revoke the benchmark interest rate rise, but announce Quantitative Easing 4…..
Not bad huh?
wd I don’t get it…….. ” I’m inclined to predict that the Fed will make a gesture of raising the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points ” That’s spot on ?
We all know that the first line of the FED’s playbook…is all about “conditioning”…aka…..RHETORIC.
Study Greenspan and the BSB who personified this trait.
SIG I shouldn’t have to explain myself but……….wd quoted Kunstler and said his prediction was “spot on”……… Well it wasn’t and there was no 1/4 basis point rate increase…………………….Thus my “I don’t get it” response. In fact Kunstler’s statement was anything but unusual as EVERYONE knows the Fed changes their language constantly as a ploy to distract from the obvious………….. Furthermore you don’t need anyone to tell you the FED won’t raise rates EVER. It’s a mathematical impossibility to do so. Discussing a one time 1/4 point rise is another distraction from the truth.
You didn’t need to explain yourself. I could see that you were questioning the accuracy of the statement.
What I was pointing out was more or less what you said in your last sentence….discussing…
He used the exact wording that Yellen and the rest of the babble heads, remove the word patience…I should have used quotation marks…He could have written what Yellen said almost verbatim. He said this 3 days before she made her talk.
Did they raise the rates by 1/4 as he predicted ?
No but he said they would remove the word patience and that its likely to be raised, it is the same gist Jeff L; go and look at his predictions for this year, some have already happened and already happening
He is saying that they will have to do some type of window dressing effort to back up what they are saying…. I should have been more exact as to what he said, ” the patience part” so lighten up.
Also no one else said what he said before the Fed said it…
Silver Alert!!! … has broken through its bullish wedge to the upside … I’m now targeting the $17 to $19 dollar level!!!
Here is a Silver Chart showing the silver bullish wedge breakout … my analysis suggests silver will move above its 200 day moving average at $18 and hit about $18.50 or $19 before pulling back a bit!
Greg, if they can’t stop the truth they attack the messenger. In my opinion you try to, by your guess and your own opinions, here on your site do the public a service. So keep on, keepin on. Though many of your guess bring different perspectives about the same condition the US is in, its allows me to see things from different angles. And many of the comments help also. There will always be opposition as you know, but to seek facts and truth at a time such as this is the greatest thing we can do. May the Lord bless
Wanted to bring some news from Israel today, to the comments. The Temple mount society finished the building of the sacrificial alter, for the third temple. They’ve reproduced it in such a way that allows it be moved in parts and erected. They said it could be moved an used at a moments notice. So, along with all the other things we get here, I thought maybe some would be interested. Lord bless
Hi I just wanted to point out to you the fact is the people that thought up these off the books accounting systems reside in the vatican, you see they do not marry and have children, priests do not reason for their sons and families they do everything for the institution, that’s their family, you free can never bee, you need to defend the constitution, just the fact thet priests marry in US and have families is fantastic, Off the books is the vatican bank. The same goes for the monarchies, the only difference is that they use you as a subject, the more you do for them the more you get to take from others. The more abundance these two institutions put aside the more people starve. Constitution = freedom , Incorporated = Slavery
Truth is the New Hate Speech
“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.”
This was a great interview as always Greg. Thank you.
What bothers my mind is, why Kotlikoff uses the term ‘government is x% underfinanced’ i mean he is pointing the deficit spending i get it, but term should be ‘overlevered’ not ‘underfinanced’ since the root problem of the global economy is big governments leeching on productive peoples time and money. So I do not think they need anymore capital to finance their excessive spending.
Greg, I propose that you start asking your quests what they are doing to protect themselves from financial collapse !
I do not know if he is just arrogant or naive or both to assert that members of our congress do not have a clue that the US being broke- that is ludicrous and as for accountants – they know it all too well. For profits look at continuing business operations yet government looks only to budgets – for a time being. BTW Congress knows full well they are are deep that is why they refuse to balance the budget – they cannot! You have had better guest that were not here just to beat their chest as Laurence Kotlikoff did.
As for looking to China as a currency leader – it will never happen.
I seem to me that Professor Kotlikoff has an agenda. In talking about the widening deficit he seen to focus on Social Security and Medicare as the areas to cut back on. He practically ignores the vast spending on the military security complex and our numerous wars of choice. According to economist Joseph Stiglitz, the war in Iraq alone added three trillion to the deficit. During all its existence Social Security has not add one nickel to the deficit. Professor Kotlikoff doesn’t seem to be at all concerned with our children and grand children paying for our wars only about Social Security. He is part of a wide spread plan to destroy Social Security and Medicare. Let’s not be fooled!
Another great interview — thanks Greg. I agree with the guest’s observations regarding the debt burden and the coming consequences. But I was also struck by the irony — on the one hand understanding this and on the other, writing a book about maximizing the social security benefits.
If the dollar collapses and we have the type of inflation that robs us of purchasing power, isn’t the value of social security benefits eliminated? In other words, if the government is sending you a check for $1000 but it has the purchasing power of $100, or $10, then social security has become moot. Or does the guest think that the government will re-align the social security benefit to account for the inflation that has taken place?
It would be interesting to hear the guest’s opinion on that in a future interview. In the aftermath of a hyper inflation, will those on a fixed income be left destitute?
Shrug: Comments about S.S. in horrible shape and then writes a book on how to get more out of it??? Is this book designed to hurry the demise of the financial system??
Professor Kotlikoff also has a new best-selling book titled “Get What’s Yours: The secrets to maxing out your Social Security.” It is currently the number one seller on Amazon.com. Kotlikoff says many people do not know the rules, and if you don’t it, could cost you tens of thousands of dollars. . . . We have two big problems. Social Security is in terrible shape. We need to fix that. Some people get more out of Social Security because they know the rules. That’s one problem.
What timing. I just sent you an article from this guy a few days ago. Must Be ESP.