Prediction Payoff and More Real Stats
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Last week, John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics predicted on USAWatchdog that the unemployment number would be worse than expected. He said in an interview, “The risk is on the upside because the economy is weaker than consensus.” Williams went on to tell me that, “Unemployment has a fair shot at hitting 10%.” On the phone interview he offhandedly said,”It might go as high as 10.2 percent.” I did not print that number in the story because I didn’t want to seem alarmist. My bad!! Williams was right! It came in at 10.2 percent on Friday!! Most other economists expected it to come in at 9.9 percent. Keep in mind that is according to the “official” government numbers. Williams also said there would be a new push for more stimulus in Congress. Williams has a habit of making big predictions that come true. For more on last weeks USAWatchdog post, please click here,”Unemployment And A New Stimulus Bill.”
Check out what Williams says is the real unemployment rate! 22.1 percent! That’s what the unemployment rate would be if you calculated it the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics did before 1994. After 1994, BLS changed the way it did unemployment to make it look less than what it really is. Below are bullet points from the most recent report on shadowstats.com.
Shadow Government Statistics
– Annual Payroll Loss Rivals (Greg’s Take: We’re still losing jobs big time)
-End of World War II Production Shutdown (Greg’s Take: Manufacturing is drying up)
– Unemployment Jumps to 10.2% (22.1% SGS) (Greg’s Take: Simple math, more than 1 in 5 are out of work)
– Systemic Liquidity Problems Still Intensifying (Greg’s Take: The worst of the economic meltdown is still ahead of us)
– Fed Continues to Explode Monetary Base (Greg’s Take: We’re printing money like never before)
Shadow Government Statistics is a fee based site…for more click (here)
I just left a restaurant in Charleston, WV. This state is very much a Democrat state. I have yet to talk to anyone here that supports the current administrations push for a Carbon Cap and Trade program. As I am writing this, Obama is on the air saying that we should not act rashly. I consider it rash to kick coal to the curb and replace a cheap energy source with one that is much more expensive. But then, I do not believe that Global warming is manmade. Even if you believe that Global warming is manmade, would you sacrifice a real job in WV for one of the two million make believe green energy job the union posters in WV claim will be created?
I’m sure that the Obama administration will report two million jobs were created just like they reported that they save a million jobs with the stimulus money. The skeptics, include me here, are starting to look at the numbers and they are so grossly over inflated that it’s surreal. I’d be laughing if it was not my money they were using.