The latest unemployment number will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. The consensus is it will be slightly higher than last month. I interviewed John Williams, an economist at shadowstats.com. He predicts, “The risk is on the upside because the economy is weaker than consensus.” Williams went on to tell me that, “Unemployment has a fair shot at hitting 10%.” Keep in mind that is according to the “official” government numbers. Williams contends if you caculate the unemployment number the way BLS did prior to 1994, then the real unemployment rate will be north of “21.4%.”
When the 10% government number is hit, (that could be Friday) then Williams calls that an “odometer event.” Meaning, folks will take notice, like when your car odometer rolls over from 99,999 to 100,000 miles.
Williams thinks the Democrats will then see the economy slipping further and says, “theywill feel theyhave to act now!” Everyone in Washington knows that a stimulus plan needs around 9 months to take effect. If the Dems do not act soon, then the 2010 election will not be good for the party in power. So, according to Williams, look for a higher than expected unemployment number and then a push for a new stimulus plan.
What will be the result of even more “stimulus?” According to Williams, there will be more dollar weakness and higher prices. A year an a half ago, while I was at CNN, I interviewed Williams. Back in March of 2008, Williams predicted there would be an “inflationary depression.” Check it out in the video below.
Williams told me yesterday that we are still heading for an “inflationary depression.” He also said, “We still have the worst of the systemic and liquidity crisis and the worst of the economy ahead of us.” Meaning, we are nowhere near a bottom. Williams thinks gold at $1,100 an ounce is a “bargain.”
John Williams runs a subscription based web site called Shadow Government Statistics or shadowstats.com. It is a site that is well worth the money. Williams is a top notch economist that works for hedge funds and fortune 500 companies. He is an expert in what I call the “real numbers.” I do not get paid in any way for telling you about Williams or his site.
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Greg is the producer and creator of USAWatchdog.com. The site’s slogan is “analyzing the news to give you a clear picture of what’s really going on.” The site will keep an eye on the government, your financial interests and cut through the media spin. USAWatchdog.com is neither Democrat nor Republican, Liberal or Conservative. Before creating and producing the site, Greg spent nearly 9 years as a network and investigative correspondent. He worked for ABC News and Good Morning America for nearly 6 years. Most recently, Greg worked for CNN for shows such as Paula Zahn Now, American Morning and various CNN business shows.