Is an Attack On Iran Imminent? If So, Then What?
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
A story that came out on Friday the 13thhas ominous implications for the Middle East and the world. It was reported by FOX news last week, Russia is planning to supply fuel rods to Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor by this coming weekend. (Iran would be able to make nuclear weapons through the plutonium it could reprocess out of spent fuel rods.) That effectively means if Israel is going to attack the reactor, it must do it before Saturday, August 21. If it waits until after the reactor starts producing power, it will risk a radiological disaster in the Persian Gulf.
Former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton said Friday on FOX News, “If they’re going to do it that’s the window that they have,” Bolton declared. “Otherwise as I said before, once the rods are in the reactor, if you attack the reactor you’re going to open it up and radiation will escape at least into the atmosphere and possibly into the waters of the Persian Gulf. So most people think that neither Israel nor the United States, come to that, would attack the reactor after it’s been fueled.” (Click here for the complete story.)
To counter an attack by Israel, Iran has been trying to beef up its air defenses. Iran claimed two weeks ago it had acquired sophisticated Russian made S-300 missiles systems. The S-300 is reportedly capable of shooting down aircraft and other incoming missiles. According to a recent report by the Jewish news organization, Haaretz.com, “Since the UN sanctions resolution against Iran was approved last Wednesday, Russiahas released several contradicting reports regarding its missile deal with Iran.” (Click here for the complete Haaretz story.)
Meanwhile, the Iranian news outlet, Press TV, spoke with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad yesterday about his plan called the “Tehran Declaration.” It is basically a nuclear fuel swap with friendly countries that is designed to calm international fears of Iran becoming a nuclear armed country. The Press TV article goes on to say, “Asked about the threats of war against the country, the Iranian president stated that all the talks about war are part of a psychological warfare against the Islamic Republic. He advised the West to “abandon the war rhetoric,” emphasizing that Iran will continue on its path despite “their belligerent literature . . . . Nothing will hamper Iran’s efforts but the kind of literature will only harm international diplomacy as the Islamic Republic will not compromise,” he went on to say.” (Click here for the complete Press TV article.)
The Iranian government has stated many times its nuclear program is for peaceful uses only. The Israeli government has stated many times it thinks otherwise.
Maybe diplomacy will win out and Israel will not attack. Maybe Israel will just live with the fact Iran will have a power plant capable of providing the Islamic Republic with material to make nuclear weapons. One thing is for certain, this problem is not going to magically go away. If Israel does attack, and even if it is successfully repelled by the Iranians, there will be repercussions for the entire world.
To me, It’s looking more and more like it’s a matter of when, not if, Israel will strike Iran. If an air strike happens, it would be catastrophic to the world economy. For one thing, the Straits of Hormuz would be almost immediately shut down by war. It is only about 30 miles wide at its narrowest point. Iran would attack everything from oil tankers to the U.S. Navy and, of course, Israel. Oil supplies to the world would be greatly restricted. (Up to 17 million barrels a day passes through the Straits of Hormuz. That is 40% of all world oil shipments.) The global economy would go into a tailspin in short order. Oil prices would spike! Who knows, maybe a barrel of crude could double in a week! There would be open season on all U.S. interests in the Persian Gulf. (Remember, the U.S. has a major military installation in Qatar.) China would certainly weigh in because it provides Iran with much of its refined fuel. Russia would also be involved because it has assisted with Iran’s nuclear program. The conflict would not end quickly, and there will be blood.”
The fragile U.S. economy is now, once again, rolling over. It would not take much for another financial meltdown to occur if this “wild card” flips out of control. This is a very under reported story by the mainstream media, but that doesn’t mean it is void of serious consequences.
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About the Author
Greg Hunter
Greg is the producer and creator of USAWatchdog.com. The site’s slogan is “analyzing the news to give you a clear picture of what’s really going on.” The site will keep an eye on the government, your financial interests and cut through the media spin. USAWatchdog.com is neither Democrat nor Republican, Liberal or Conservative. Before creating and producing the site, Greg spent nearly 9 years as a network and investigative correspondent. He worked for ABC News and Good Morning America for nearly 6 years. Most recently, Greg worked for CNN for shows such as Paula Zahn Now, American Morning and various CNN business shows.
Greg,
Excellent article with good analysis and perspective. Unfortunately, mainstream media just does not adhere to sound journalistic fundamentals as you continually do.
Pat
Pat,
Very nice of you to say that, thank you.
Greg
Greg, Iran has stated many times that Isreak has no right to exist. Believe me, the Jews remember what happens when crazy leaders make such statements. They have subs in the pershian gulf. look in the news, they went thru the Suez Canal a while back. We should take all of our B2s and bomb them back to the stone age. Yes, some will say that “civilians” were killed but when you have a whole nation of suicide bombs, I don’t see civilians. Destroy the industry and infrastructure and imans will lose power. We don’t have the balls to do the needful thing. Yes, our economy will suffer for a little while. And contrary to American’s common misconceptions, China and Russia are not our friends.
George,
Thank you for weighing in on this important subject.
Greg
George, the was certainly the most ignorant, and most misinformed thing I have ever heard anyone say. Your many grammatical and spelling errors only further leads me to the conclusion that you may be mildly retarded. A war on Iran would be catastrophic for the world population on numerous grounds. This will be yet another war for profit, sold to stupid people like you with lies about WMDs, sound familiar!? Hmmm…
Living in the UAE, I can tell you that this subject is greatly important, and an attack will have grave consequences for the world economy and civilization as a whole. We should all hope that the imperialist policies of the western world and Israel so not win out once again.
Salaam alaikum to you Jaws and to all your Moslem friends in UAE,
Please explain “the was”. It appears that you do not understand proper grammar. Perhaps you are only a little less retarded than I. Well maybe not, you wrote, “We should all hope that the imperialist policies of the western world and Israel “so not” win out once again.” Please explain “So not”.
On second thought, maybe we are equally retarded. By the way, that part sounds like a bad terrorist video. And buy a dictionary and look up “imperialist”, that’s laughably inaccurate. Do you understand English? I am not proposing a war. I propose bombing all the industry, military sites, refineries, power plants and yes; those pesky WMD sites in Iran.
I agree there will be consequences for bombing the followers of Shaitan; the evil Ayatollahs, Ahmadinejad and their minions. There is always a consequence for defying evil. Your superior intellect appears to miss the impact of evil crazy people with access to nuclear weapons. Even the mildly retarded like myself seem to have a better grasp of reality than such a learned Moslem as you.
The world economy will suffer from a preemptive strike BUT it is necessary. I understand the economic ramifications of my proposal but unlike you, I understand the realities of a nuclear Iran.
By the way, I have several Muslim friends. None of them think that a nuclear Iran is good for peace.
With warmest regards,
George
Thank you for the great read, even if it did take quite a long time to understand. (English is not my national language) Can I ask where you get your information from? Many thanks! Nickolas
Nickolas,
I have several links contained in the post. I use them so readers can see my sources. When you click on the links you will see where I got most of my information. Thank you for the complement and question.
Greg
A Nobel Peace Prize President issued stern warnings and economic sanctions that equal an unstated war.
The Gulf has an American fleet occupying it and Iran is virtually surrounded by hostile nuclear capable powers. It surprises me that anyone is surprised that they may want similar tech. What choice do they have, the “benevolence” of the West? Constant threats and US military in the ready along with a trigger happy benefactor of the US, paranoid and reactionary. Will the West show Iran more respect than Gaza?
It’s time for dialogue without the rhetoric. We’ve created a mess over a resource we should have evolved from by now. Technologically, it’s an engineering embarrassment that we are still confined to the dirty, inefficient paradigm of the internal combustion engine. Computers make quantum leaps in tech every 5 years minimum…. yet we’re still driving much the same way our grandparents did. Mortifying.
Now China and Russia watch us expend ourselves in the sink hole that is Afghanistan. I think that I even read that we are using Russian territory to supply the Afghan occupation…. doesn’t that read like a route General Custer may have considered?
End Oil’s relevancy and the entire region returns to subsistence farming.
The next fight over oil may start with Iran, but China could pull the plug on our economy. Didn’t Hitler extend himself too far with an exhausted army? I’m no historian, but it seems like history is repeating itself and both China and Russia are close neighbors to our misfortunes and watching.
20% unemployment does make the military look like a feasible option though……..
Mike,
Good point. The U.S. has spent at least a trillion bucks on the Iraq and Afghan wars alone. What do we have to show for it? Plenty of brave service men and women killed or maimed. What would have happened if we would have spent that money on green energy, developing clean coal, advancing battery technology or just drilling on this side of the world? Thank you for your comment.
Greg
Greg,
Great comment on a very important article. For what it’s worth, I have a friend (Jewish, and a former IDF officer) who concurs that when there is little in the press about a subject, that’s usually a harbinger of action. He wouldn’t predict timing, but said Israel CANNOT allow Iran to be nuclear capable. I guess we’ll soon see!
E.
Eli,
Good info man!!!
Greg
I for one don’t think they will do it, for one their U.S. backing is suspect, this will not unite the American people it will divide them as never before. Half the U.S. people in the street smell a rat, and that rat is in Washington and their main stream media {i.e. the corporate propaganda b.s. machine} They aren’t real journalists like you Greg, Americans know the difference.
The powers that be & the satus quo are in trouble Greg and they know it, everything can turn on them in an instant, they went too fast.
P.s. I started reading you after Coast 2 Coast can’t wait til Noory has ya back on you were great.
And now for something completely different, as Monte Python used to say, . . . psedo-Zionism for your philosophical pleasure.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/20405222/M-A-O-U-S-Jews-in-Kansas
Bob and Mike,
Thank you both for your comments on the post!
Greg
When the big insiders sell off gold and run to oil, the green light is but days away for a attack on Iran. The man who controls the black gold is above the yellow gold owner. Anyway it’s something to keep a eye on. Thanks Greg
Great analysis. One point that tends to go unmentioned is that perhaps the biggest threat is not Iran using nukes in the future to attack anyone directly, but providing to terrorist organizations who can attack without leaving any fingerprints for retaliation. A proxy attack would be a real threat.
Good point Robert.
Greg
Was just introduced to this site and looked around a little bit – so I am a bit late on this article. Apparently Israel is not going to attack since it is the 21st now in SF, and is now the 22nd in Tel Aviv. Some of the comments are a little alarming. When people espouse an attack on Iran, I don’t think they really are cognizant of their reliance on imported oil. In California we import something around 40% of our oil, about half of which is from Saudi Arabia and Iraq (CA Energy Commission). We run our refineries near capacity (very low idle refinery capacity). If there was a shortage of new crude, some of these refineries would be shut down. About 96% of our transportation fuel is petroleum based. The probable result would be severe shortages of gasoline in areas, depending on distribution patterns. Since almost all of our food is imported into urban areas, patterns of severe food shortages would unfold. Such a situation would call into being a military response and, most likely, martial law would be employed. Since refineries are very complex entities, it would take some time for such refineries to be restarted. It could be a period of months of such conditions. If the Iranians were successful at destroying a giant oil port such as Ras Tanura in Eastern Saudi Arabia, the conditions may be persistent. In such conditions, whether or not Iran became a nuclear power may have little meaning to most people who would be more concerned with local conditions and survival.
Bill,
You are so right here. If Iran was attacked it would be an economic disaster for the entire world. Thank you for your comment.
Greg
Just because something has not happened yet doesn’t mean it wont happen. Israel has satellites. I’ sure they know if fuel is really being put in. Has anyone considered that you wouldn’t tell the world if you were “really” doing it? I wonder if this was put in the MSM to see if Israel would attack.
JJ,
Good point. The sad thing here is that most Iranians do not really support the government. Iranians are also sworn enemies Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Thank you for your comment.
Greg
Greg,
Your mistake is defining “attack” in strictly military terms, and in that sense, you need to upgrade your understanding. Today’s US military has the ability to infiltrate enemy command and control, cyber-systems and sensors and wreak utter havoc. And it can do it in many different ways.
Iran IS under attack. Stuxnet is just most visible aspect.
There’s lots of stuff available in public/open source forums for you to research. Just subscribe to Aviation Week and Space Technology and pay attention.
RJ
Ross,
Thank you for your comment and perspective.
Greg