Global Economy on Unquestionable Decline Leading to War-Gerald Celente

Global Economy on Unquestionable Decline Leading to War-Gerald CelenteBy Greg Hunter’s

Top trends researcher Gerald Celente is forecasting a slowing global economy in 2015, and oil is a leading indicator. Celente explains, “It’s all in oil.  We’ve been talking about oil prices since they peaked in June of this year.  Now, you are seeing a 30% decline in Brent crude and West Texas (crude oil).  This is big and it’s not a manipulated market.  This is real.  Yes, supply is up, but demand is down, and demand is down big time.  You don’t have to look at that as an assumption, you can look at that as a fact.  Here’s the fact.  The fact is China is one of the biggest consumers of energy and commodities in the world.  You are seeing investment in China coming down to 2000 levels.  You are seeing production falling back to great recession levels in 2008 and 2009. . . . This is a global slowdown.  It’s in front of everybody’s eyes, and oil is telling the story.”

So, what’s in store for 2015? Let’s start with the global economy.   Celente says, “The economy is on a decline and it’s unquestionable.   They are boosting the equity markets with record low interest rates.  It’s a Ponzi scheme, and at some point, it has to explode.”   Celente goes on to preview a taste of the 2015 Trends Journal.  Celente says, “One of the trends for 2015 is ‘bankism,’ not capitalism.  Capitalism is dead. This isn’t capitalism.  Four words killed it, and they are ‘too big to fail.’  Quantitative easing hasn’t stopped.  They keep doing it, they just change the game.”

So, which do we get first: a global economic crash or a global world war?  Celente says, “I would say first would come the economic calamity, but you don’t know what will cause it.  For example, when 9/11 happened, they closed down Wall Street.  If there is a terrorist strike, either false flag or real, they will blame the economic conditions on these terrorists. . . . They will use it as an excuse.  So, you don’t know whether it’s heads or tails, but the coin will be flipped.”

On the Middle East U.S. policy, Celente says, “It’s madness. Look what they did with Libya.  We had to get rid of that Gadhafi.  Remember that one?  Great job, guys.  Terrific.  You turned the whole place into chaos, and you created the conditions for more destabilization around the area.   People like ISIS and these other people got the guns now and the weapons. . . . There’s one failure after another.”

What will the economy look like to the man on the street when the economy finally takes a fall? Celente predicts, “It’s going to be inflation, but it’s going to be currency devaluation rather than commodity inflation, for example:  oil.  We see oil prices coming down.  As the currency becomes devalued, it will cost you more to buy that commodity because they just continue to print more money and put it into the global system.  It’s not only the United States, look what’s going on in China.  There are estimates that there are 70 million luxury apartments they can’t sell in China.  You read the data, and you see the government is boosting the economy.”

On gold, Celente says, “When gold was around $1,200 per ounce, I said it had a downside risk of between $100 and $150 an ounce. We sent that out in the Trends Monthly.  I am in gold for the long haul.  Why would I want to be in Bitcoin, bucks or anything else when I see what’s going on. . . .  To me, it’s a rigged game, and the game only stays rigged for so long.  I don’t buy gold to speculate. . . . I buy for possession.  Gold could go down more, but I invest in gold for my golden years.  Why would I invest in anything when I know they are keeping interest rates low worldwide to juice their markets?

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Gerald Celente, Publisher of the Trends Journal.

(There is much, much more in the video interview.)

After the Interview: 
Gerald Celente will release a complete list of top trends for 2015 next month. If you would like to subscribe to the Trends Journal, please click here.

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  1. James Hastings

    Thanks. I like hearing from Gerald. I spent 10 years on active duty. There are some things that land close. There are some things that are right on. There are are some things that are pinpoint. Each of your guests have their accuracy zone. I see what is coming. I just can’t tell when. So….focus on your family and be prepared to loose some paper. Grin when it hurts. 🙂

  2. bob


  3. allen ols


    SPOT ON INTERVIEW!!!!!!!!!


  4. Oracle 911

    Hi Greg
    Few things:
    1st The war is already on, but it is mostly economical war.
    2nd The elites of Anglo-Saxon world are delusional (they are believing in their own lies).
    3rd The destabilization of ME is not a mistake but a tool.

    My 2 cents
    Oracle 911

  5. J C Davis

    Thanks Greg for having Gerald back on. Good interview however I am confused on his view of deflation. More printed money devalued, and oil dropping yet we will pay more for it ? Well now that I typed it down it makes sense.

  6. From Australia

    That was excellent talk back Greg, and this Celente really has it nailed. I reckon he is spot on with regards to oil (and gold) being a lead indicator for a global depression, and the commodities sector is down some 35% or more, so you can see shortly that many miners will be shutting shop further, cutting expansion plans, etc, which will further push oil even lower! When it all comes down and a reset takes place, expect inflation to arrive like flames from a dragon’s mouth!

  7. Mary

    Okay, the guy knows a lot. But he yells and sings like meth addict hobo…

  8. Randy

    That’s the best interview I’ve heard him give! The banks are the government….I like that.
    Tomorrow the UK Parlament will discuss, for the first time in 170 years, how money is created. This event will be televised.
    There will be a massive understanding that there is no need for a society to pay interest to a private company that gets to print money for free. Central banks will be closed.
    I’m not sure we are headed to war. Too many people are waking up. I think we are headed to people reorganizing society on their own. New Hampshire has already done it!

  9. Old Crab

    This guy dosent forecast the future as much as he bitches about the present

    • Tim mus

      Now that is an accurate assesment (if anyone has been paying attention to what he has been saying over the years.)

  10. Don_in_Odessa

    if oil demand is only down it is insignificant. Look at this chart from the EIA:

    Here is the article link”

  11. Mike

    It’s nice to wakeup to a nice, fresh, hot cup of coffee and tune in to the ever informative
    and journalistic vigilance of Greg Hunter and 1 of many excellent guess of high esteem.
    Thank you Greg!
    DFW Texas

    • Greg Hunter

      You are very kind Mike. I haven’t had my coffee yet.

      • Justin

        Wow Greg are you kidding me… that guy Was very sharp probably one of your best interviews ever I am going to watch this one twice. Thank you . Justin

        • Greg Hunter

          Thank you Justin for your comment and support.

      • lastmanstanding

        Your priorities are messed up Greg…get up when it’s dark, start the coffee, build a fire (If you have a stove or fp) Once coffee is done and you have had a few sips by the fire (I have to move the dogs beds to the fire first and feed the cat) then… and only then can one deal with what the www has to offer.

        My wife says I love the pets more than her…thank God she is an understanding and tolerate woman.

        “don’t go down without one helluva fight”

        • Greg Hunter

          Last man,
          I always post after Midnight so I am up until the wee hours most nights. I too have a love interest besides my wife–Sunshine, our cocker.

          • lastmanstanding

            The “night owl” thing is a tough deal. Many years ago I worked midnight shift for 3 years and had a day job as well. I finally canned the night shift and swore to myself that I would do whatever it took to survive between the hours of 6 am and 10 pm.

            Man is meant to sleep at night. God bless you brother…fear not.

          • Angie

            Awwww….that is sweet! We (my beloved fur-kid and I) enjoyed this article, great interview!
            ~ Angie

  12. Marcelo

    ” This is big and it’s not a manipulated market” I like Celente and I agree on what he has been saying for years. Having said this, if he thinks that the oil market is not a manipulated market, then, either he is not well informed or he is lying. In case he does not know yet, Kerry told the Saudies what to do with the oil price, after the Minsk ceasefire between Ukraine and the pro russian rebels. in order to punish Russia. The Saudis did what they were ordered to do by their Washington masters > Produce as much oil as possible until Russia is in its knees. And here we are, with the Saudies having costs of about U$ 30 per Barrel, Russia is suffering. The problem with this strategy is that the shale industry in th US will end up in Chapter 11 as well.

  13. flusy

    Bears repeating:

    The hand_wringing is on the wall . . . , of worry, for all the world to see. The Obola administration, Saudi’s, Qatar’s and John McCains baby, has to be thrown out with the bath water, or we will be embroiled in a religious war the likes of this world has not seen in 600 years!

  14. rich

    Greg, the primary reason (there are others) that I come to your blog is your guests and yourself – tell the truth. I am so sick and tired of all the lies in our country. The gubmint lies to us, the organizations around us lie to us, etc. I feel like I am living in a big fat lie. I am just so very sick and tired of all the lies.

    It is great to have a place to find the truth. Blessings to you and your family.

    • Sven

      Haha I hear you, man. And it’s not just the US. In Europe things are just as bad. Feels like I’m sitting on a turd floating through a cesspool of lies, waiting for someone to flush the chain. At least we have great info on this site coming from the interviews and the commenters. Ah, to escape this lavatory of lies. Stay cool bro!

      • Emeth

        Echoes from history anyone ….
        As a result of the widespread corruption and rabid immorality in 18th Century France, Louis XV was alleged to have said ‘After me the deluge’.

        Most scholars believe Louis XV’s decisions exacerbated financial waste started by his father who drained the treasury and centralized power, which inevitably damaged the power of France, bankrupted the country and discredited the monarchy, and made it more vulnerable to distrust and destruction, as happened in the French Revolution, which broke out 15 years after his death. One historian says he was “a perpetual adolescent called to do a man’s job.”

        Modern History is often said to have started at the time of the French revolution. Perhaps we too are on the verge of a new era, after the current corruption is flushed away in some violent storm.

  15. Jerry

    I marvel at your ability to maintain your composure and stay on topic with your interviews, especially with Gerald Celente. He’s a tough. I read Alden’s comments from your interviews on Monday. The guy is obviously a paid government troll. That should tell you just how desperate this totalitarian regime is to save itself, when they have to hire someone to defend their moronic actions.

    It doesn’t take a genius to see what’s going to happen. NOONE can print money with impunity, without anything to back it up, and not have something happen . It just can’t be done. The laws of economic physics eventually override manipulation. Its just that simple. The only reason the dollar has lasted this long as reserve currency is because they weren’t sure what to replace it with. Well that ship has long sailed. The Chinese now control the worlds gold, and soon the worlds means of economic trade through the RMB. That’s a proven fact, whether the paid trolls want to accept it or not. At the end of the day, our fate will be sealed by what they decide to do, not us. We have borrowed and printed our way into oblivion, just to buy ourselves one more day of watching dancing with the stars.

  16. john duffy

    Greg, glad to see you have patched up your differences with Celente. Good on you and Gerald!

    • tonsil

      I’m not here to criticize either, but Greg probably doesn’t full appreciate the US-Israel relationship.

    • dan n

      No differences inferred from my end. Simply put, Mr. Celente was rude in the previous interview……………which deterred me from renewing my subsciption to his work; notwithstanding his cogent insights.

  17. Chip

    WOW, WOW, WOW!!! Great interview Greg. Went MUCH better than the last time you had Gerald on. Good focus of topics. You’re the best….! Chip

  18. andyb

    Greg: thanks for having Gerald on. A very passionate man who knows his stuff. And, kudos to you for bringing out the best in him and many others.

  19. NC Gal

    Great guest and great interview, Greg! Thank you so much for all that you are doing for the rest of us. While I wasn’t surprised at all of the people who are part of the Goldman Sachs revolving door, Celente has a way of presenting things that make them much more obvious to anyone who is paying attention. I don’t hold out much hope for his Occupy Peace effort; I think that things are just too far along to turn back to an earlier time, and it’s what we have lost as a country that makes me very sad, but there it is. I don’t think the healing can begin until after the whole thing comes down, and I do believe that the elites are doing everything they can to make sure that they stay in control even then, depopulation included.

    Fractional reserve banking fails under a primary economic law — the Law of Diminishing Returns. One doesn’t have to subscribe to a particular school of economics to see that the “fractional” aspect just keeps working with smaller and smaller slices of the pie.

    ALL money is “fiat money,” regardless of whether it is zeroes and ones in computers, cowrie shells, precious metal coins (that are declared currency), or clay tablets inscribed with cuneiform characters. It’s only money when it’s declared (that’s the fiat part) an official medium of exchange. It only has worth to the extent that people accept it as having value and it’s ALL made up. Money is a total fiction, and it’s only through lifelong conditioning that people can’t see it as such.

    No one “owns” anything, either. That’s all made up, too, coming down across the millennia as part of the historic debris we inherent when we are conceived. Nothing will change until the basic system itself changes, and that will require an incredible cohesion of beliefs and values, even if it’s only on a local basis at first. This is the end of an era, an end of all of that precisely because it’s gone to a global level, and everything is now slowing down (as Celente concludes) and is entering the final phases of its death. Only time will tell what will follow it.

    • Sven

      Ironically, the native American’s understood this philosophy only too well. The earth is our mother and we’re ravaging her, or at least allowing her to be ravaged, while we hope and pray for a better future. Aint nobody listening to those hopes or prayers by the way. It’s time for the men of Europe and America to stand up and be counted.

    • mark

      NC Gal,
      Reading your post reminds me of Peter’s first letter to those who believe of the dispersion in which he writes ” Knowing that it was not with corruptible things, with little coins of silver or gold, that you were redeemed from your vain manner of life handed down from your fathers, but with precious blood, as of a Lamb without blemish and without spot, the blood of Christ; Who was foreknown before the foundation of the world but has been manifested in the last of times for your sake, Who through Him believe into God, Who raised Him from the dead and gave Him glory, so that your faith and hope are in God. Since you have purified your souls by your obedience to the truth unto unfeigned brotherly love, love one another from a pure heart fervently, having been regenerated not of corruptible seed but of incorruptible, through the living and abiding word of God.” (1 Peter 1:18-23). The grace and peace of our Lord Jesus Christ be richly with your spirit NC Gal. He paid the highest price, His own spotless incorruptible blood to redeem us out from the vain manner of life handed down to us from our fathers who, being men of flesh and blood were subject to the law of sin and death, unto an inheritance in glory, the glory of eternal life which He Himself shares in the bosom of the Father together with all those who by faith have received the reconciliation which God offers to all based on the sacrificial offering of His Beloved Son in Whom He finds His delight and in Whom we have been graced, having been blessed with every spiritual blessing in the heavenlies in Christ. Amen

    • woody188

      You had me until “No one “owns” anything, either.”

      While I agree on the level that one “can’t take it with you” upon death, ownership is a founding tenet of our modern society. People won’t work for something only to have another that hasn’t worked come and take it away from them. Certainly nothing lasts forever, but to have and own material objects and property is fundamental in our highly specialized modern society.

      I’d even argue that Native Americans did own things, like their homes, clothing, animals, etc. They traded objects, skins, and so forth. What they received for that trade wasn’t necessarily shared within a tribe, and certainly not between tribes. Tribes often fought with each other over access to territory, though they did not consider themselves owners, but more or less guardians of that territory. Is there much difference when they kept others off the land they were using?

      We can strive for the idealism, but the reality is much different. The fact that evil exists prevents any such ideals from coming into fruition. Some would also consider your ideal non-ownership society to be evil, as it is a communist utopia.

  20. Eric

    Thanks Greg for all the great interviews and work. People around the world feel all that you report on, but can’t pin point why they are angry or depressed. Wish more people would tune in.
    There needs to be a reset, political ‘leaders’ will not give up their power easily. And newly elected ‘leaders’ will only fall in line with the career politicians with time. We the people need our country back, we now sit below France as free people at 20th in the world.

  21. Craig Michael

    Hi Greg,
    I always look forward to listening to Mr. Celente. I believe people should listen to him and plan accordingly. Mr. Celente basically goes unchallenged when he goes on the various programs. I still appreciate how you didn’t backdown when you challenged Mr. Celente on several points the last time he was on.

    I may have misunderstood him on other interviews, but he appeared to be a bit dismissive about the persecution of Christians in the Middle East. He also at times seems to downplay the danger the Palestinians pose to Israel (as well as the mortal danger Israel’s neighbors pose to her). Maybe some time he will clarify his views on these issues.

    Great show as usual.

  22. El Tigre

    The last run up in oil was very apparent on the charts. While watching this, it appeared to be related to a steady increase in hostilities, realization of petro dollar rejection, faulty gov. leadership and Bric influence . Then out of nowhere the oil price sharply dropped out of nowhere for no reason, as the world continues to get worse and dollar doubt increases. The chart looks similar to the metals fraud. Not manipulated? I guess everything is but not oil.

    • woody188

      It dropped because demand dropped and supply increased. These are fundamentals, not manipulation. Yes, the dollar being measured as worth more contributed, but it wouldn’t have been that large a factor as the drop has indicated. If that were the case, other commodities would see the same 30% declines.

      Fact was, oil was trading high in a bubble, and still probably is a bubble. The cost of a gallon of gas would drop to $1.79 if the speculation from the QE fed banks were removed from the Wall Street casino.

  23. Jeff L

    I will give Gerald that there is a supply/demand factor effecting the oil price. But it is entirely naïve to believe oil isn’t hugely manipulated……. So everything else (yes everything) is manipulated BUT oil ? Suddenly oil is despised and down 30%+ ? So how about his war predictions (I agree). Wouldn’t that factor in to the futures price ? No, Gerald, this is 90% political (read destroy the BRICS) and as soon as war returns to the front page news we will be seeing all time highs. Just like gold. Bet on it.

  24. dee garmon

    It’s very nice to have him back on USA Watchdog.
    If anybody is a fortune teller, it’s Gerard.

  25. Eddie Laidler

    If anyone believes that we are not in a depression consider this…..
    What is the primary image that comes to mind when thinking of the Great Depression?
    Most people , when I ask them say Soup Lines. Ask a few people yourself.
    Where are the soup lines today?
    They are masked by the EBT card.
    If you lined up all the EBT card users for a one day meal with one transaction a day for hot soup what would you have?
    The parking lots at Wal Mart would be queued through the parking lot.
    They are there but they are hidden by the modern version of welfare entitlements.
    We are there.

  26. Eddie Laidler

    Greg have you ever though of having Richard Daughty the Mogambu Guru for an interview?
    His past writings were so unique and entertaining while pointing out the madness that the Fed perpetrates that he was a one of a kind.
    I am not sure how active he is right now or whether he is still relevant but it is just a thought.

  27. Andy Sloan

    “I see in the near future a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes me to tremble for the safety of my country. . . . corporations have been enthroned and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people until all wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed.”
    —U.S. President Abraham Lincoln, Nov. 21, 1864
    (letter to Col. William F. Elkins)
    Ref: The Lincoln Encyclopedia: The Spoken and Written Words of A. Lincoln
    Arranged for Ready Reference, Archer H. Shaw (NY, NY: Macmillan, 1950)

    “If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered…I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies… The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.” Thomas Jefferson

    • mark

      Andy, thank you for posting this. They clearly understood the threat.

  28. Colin - 'the farmer from NZ'

    Love Gerald’s passion and the way he puts across the message.
    27 min went by in a flash. Entertaining, informative, lots of ground covered, this interview had it all.
    Great work as usual Greg!

  29. sven

    Greg, the most convincing explanation I’ve heard ref Syria is that with Assad out and a puppet in, a gas pipeline can be ran from Qatar, through Iraq and Syria and into Europe, cutting out the Russian’s. Maybe someone should tell them the Russian’s just signed the biggest trade deal in history to supply China with their gas. Also expect Iraq to be carved up into 2-3 separate states and in the north where the oil fields lie, Kurdistan to emerge, also likely with a pro western puppet at the helm.

    • woody188

      There won’t be any Kurdistan so long as Turkey remains a NATO state.

  30. Sayonara

    Greg: I greatly appreciate the bluntness of Gerald’s views. I knew we no longer have a capitalistic economy and that the banking cartel is controlling the economy and of course Gerald nails it with Bankism. His comment regarding the decreasing price oil is spot on and we must be very close to the triggering event that all of your brilliant guests have been predicting. Time to put on the G suit?

  31. flusy

    SPECIAL REPORT-In Pentagon deal with Russians, big profit for tiny Florida firm

    Wed Nov 19, 2014 1:21am IST

    * Documents show U.S.-Russian middleman firm stands to make $93 million on Air Force rocket engine contract

    * Rocket-engine middleman Amross is joint venture of Russia’s Energomash and U.S.-based United Technologies

    * Amross resells Russian-made RD-180 engine to U.S. military’s space launch program

    * Previously undisclosed Pentagon audit contested similar Amross contract in 2011

    * Putin associate Yuri Kovalchuk has played key role at Energomash, documents show

    By Brian Grow, Stephen Grey and Roman Anin

    ATLANTA/MOSCOW, Nov 18 (Reuters) – For months, a powerful U.S. senator has been pushing for details of a murky deal under which a Russian manufacturer supplies the rocket engines used to launch America’s spy satellites into space.

    At issue: how much the U.S. Air Force pays for the engines, how much the Russians receive, and whether members of the elite in President Vladimir Putin’s Russia are secretly profiting by inflating the price.

    Now, documents uncovered by Reuters provide some answers. A tiny Florida-based company, acting as a middleman in the deal, is marking up the price by millions of dollars per engine.

    That five-person company, RD Amross, is a joint venture of Russian engine maker NPO Energomash and a U.S. partner, aerospace giant United Technologies. According to internal company documents that lay out the contract, Amross stands to collect $93 million in cost mark-ups under its current multi-year deal to supply the RD-180 rocket engine.

    Those charges are being added to the program despite a 2011 Pentagon audit that contested a similar, earlier contract with Amross. That deal would have allowed Amross to receive about $80 million in “profit” mark-ups and overhead expenses on RD-180 engines, government documents show.

    The confidential report of the 2011 audit described the mark-ups and additional charges as improper under U.S. contracting law. Amross, the auditors concluded, was a middleman that did “no or negligible” work. The audit characterized the $80 million in added costs as “unallowable excessive pass-through charges.”

    A spokesman for RD Amross told Reuters that the company resolved the dispute by reducing its charges under the first contract. Neither Amross nor the Pentagon would disclose the dollar amount of the price cut.

    But the documents indicate that Amross later managed to make up for the concessions. In the current deal, Amross is charging the same average total price per engine – $23.4 million – that was proposed in the initial contract rejected by the Pentagon auditors.

    The disclosure of the middleman’s profits and the 2011 contract dispute is likely to increase scrutiny of the deal – and the Russians behind it.

    MCCAIN LETTER. . . . .

  32. flusy

    Russia doesn’t make anything, right ?

  33. Gregory Mannarino

    To me it is simple: if the world central banks could have fixed the global economic crisis which we are all currently in, and the US is not immune, they would have done it by now.

    • tonsil

      And fix they will, Gregory. to an untrained eye and reader of economic history, the powers are looking at global economic annihilation–intended or otherwise.

      Throw in Ebola spread by bioweapons experts in Maryland or nuclear war initiated by Obama and the military industrial complex, and most of us will be toast a lot sooner.

      Live for today.

    • woody188

      As soon as they figured out how to make money going up and coming down, the markets started wildly fluctuating higher and lower more frequently. Couldn’t be coincidence!

  34. Doug

    Hi Greg….thanks for another fantastic interview with Gerald Celente…he was on right on his game. We actually live in “the Matrix” and these type of interviews help wake people up. Capitalism is dead because the financial elite (I call it the cabal) want it that way. Thus, the cabal has no competition for any real assets. That, is what this rigged game is all about. All these QE”s were meant to transfer (steal) real assets from the every day person to the cabal. All “the markets” are rigged to their liking….and they own the governments thru debt serfdom and blackmail and thus do whatever they want. The proof is when 85 people control more wealth than half the people of the world. The end is coming quickly to this chapter of mankind. The only unknown at this time is will it be a peaceful or destructive final act?
    My best to you and your family on Thanksgiving. My hope is that it is a day of great reflection for the families that unite as I do not know if we will ever be able to celebrate it again. Peace!

  35. art barnes

    Greg, if Gerald is right about the oil market on the up & up, then it was coincidence of an unbelievable magnitude because it started to fall just about the time the Administration placed sanctions on Russia for Ukraine. Frankly, I don’t believe in coincidence when it comes to politics, and, as FDR said “if it happens in politics you can bet it was planned”. Yea, China is probably in a recession, and yes, demand is lower world wide, but 30% and falling below American cost in a mere 5 months; I just don’t buy it, so call me senile or just plain uniformed and or stupid if you will, but don’t ask me to buy it cause out here in the Western Front we don’t believe in fairly tails. we have lived through the MSM telling us everyone out here who wants to work can get a job, and it an extent it is true, however the devil is in the details; part time jobs, minimum wage, no benefits, etc.; too many fairytales to believe in here on the Western Front so I guess one more wouldn’t hurt. ab

    • flusy

      Art, take note, from; NAKED CAPITALISM
      Fearless commentary on finance, economics, politics and power

      Saudis Deploy the Oil Price Weapon Against Syria, Iran, Russia, and the US
      Posted on October 14, 2014 by Yves Smith
      Asian stock markets continued to fall today, propelled at least in part by the adverse reaction to the Saudi announcement yesterday that they would let oil prices fall to $80 a barrel. And further reports indicate that the Saudis intend to keep oil prices low enough to force a realignment of prices not just among various grades of crude, but also for intermediate and long-term substitutes.

      It is critical to remember that the Saudis have no compunction about imposing costs on other nations to maximize the value of their oil resource long term and hence the power they derive from it. The 1970s oil shock produced a nasty recession in the US and most other advanced economies and gave a further impetus to inflation, which was already hard to manage and dampened growth by discouraging investment.

      The current alignment of factors gives the Saudis the opportunity to make life miserable for a long list of parties they would like to discipline, including the US.

      The sharp rise in the dollar means that lowering the price of oil in dollar terms is unlikely to leave the desert kingdom worse off in local currency terms. But it undermines US energy development, both fracking and development in the Bakken, as well as more development by the majors, who were regularly criticized by analysts for how much they were spending on exploration when the math didn’t pencil out well at over $100 a barrel. Countries whose oil is output is mainly heavy, sour crude, like Iran and Venezuela, find it hard to sell their oil when prices are below $100 a barrel (or at least when the dollar was weaker, but the $80 price point, even with a strong dollar, may be low enough to cause discomfort).

      In other words, this is a classic case of predatory pricing: set your price low enough long enough to do real damage to competitors, and reduce their market share, not just immediately, but in the middle to long term.

      Now admittedly some pet targets may not be hurt as badly as hoped. Russia will suffer more of an opportunity loss than an actual cost from the price reduction, since the ruble has fallen significantly against the dollar. The Saudis may hope to partially displace Russia as a supplier of oil to Europe (now roughly 1/3 of the total) but refineries would need to be retooled to refine the Saudi’s light crude, so it isn’t clear whether even what amounts to bargain prices will offset this cost (and readers point out that Russian crude may also produced a better mix of distillates for European use, since they are much heavier users of diesel fuel than the US).

      But aside from the not-inconsiderable economic impact, the surprise Saudi step looks to be an even bigger geopolitical winner. The US and Riyadh have been at odds for over a year; the Saudis were particularly unhappy over the US failure to try to topple Assad last summer (you may recall the intensity of the Administration warmongering versus the dubious US interest; even Congress showed an unexpected amount of backbone and made its lack of support for Syrian adventurism clear). The Saudis have also long been less than happy with the US refusal to attack Iran (which is a rare case of the US acting as a responsible hegemon and curbing a putative ally with a bad case of blood lust). That unhappiness has ben compounded by the US now effectively helping the Assad regime and working in as distanced a manner as possible with Iran in targeting ISIS.

      These parts of Marcy Wheeler’s analysis are spot on:

      Cutting prices will make it far harder for Iraq’s Shia led government to invest in the fight against ISIL. So long as Western sanctions continue, it will destabilize Iran significantly, not only making it a lot harder for Iran to help Iraq and Syria, but also undermining the government that has chosen to deal with the US. The cuts will also destabilize Iran’s allies in Venezuela and Ecuador. Oligarchic forces have been trying to foment a coup in the former country for some time and this may well help to do so…The Saudis have been trying to undercut Russia for some time and — to the extent the ruble exchange with the dollar doesn’t shelter Russia from these changes [Update: though see Mark Adomanis on how this is hurting Russian consumers] — this price cut will hurt Russia too.

      Ultimately, though, I suspect the US is just as much the target of this move as Iran and Russia are. Since the US refused to take out Assad last year and inched forward with its Iran deal, the Saudis have been worried about having Shia Iran and Iraq take over its role as the swing producer in the world, mirroring what happened in 1976 when the US replaced Iran’s Shah with the Saudis. By destabilizing the government in negotiations with the US, the price cut will make it a lot harder to achieve such a deal.

      Just as importantly, the US is now a petro-state. And this price cut will make fracking (and deepwater drilling) unprofitable. We’ve been fracking largely to give ourselves some breathing room from the Saudis; cutting the price will make it far harder for us to sustain that effort (and will make some renewables uncompetitive).

      To me, then, this move looks like part of an effort to force the outcome the Saudis have been chasing for a decade and even more aggressively since the Arab Spring: to paralyze Shia governments just as the chaos of ISIL threatens to remap the Middle East.

      The Saudis may well claim to be supporting our fight against ISIL, but the long-term commitment to dropping oil prices, looks more like an effort to undercut it. . .

      “As much as I am no fan of Riyadh, it’s hard not to admire their strategy. The Saudis look to have executed a masterstroke. They come out winners on many fronts that are critical to them and appear to at least hold their ground on others. And I have a sneaking suspicion that the neocons, who have US energy independence as one of their core assumptions, were caught flat footed by this audacious move”. Yves Smith, October 14, 2014

      Americas broke busted, disgusted retreat, in the coming new world disorder. The writing is on the wall. . .

    • JCN

      Don’t leave out that it just so happens the fall in oil prices also came just before the mid-term elections. We’ve seen that manipulation before.

  36. Collateral Damage

    Thanks Greg and Gerald, for this excellent interview. I respect you both very much. I did however, go back and re-view the interview between the two of you in July of this year. I still fall in on the side of Gerald in his ‘take’ on the ‘slaughter’ that was occurring back then in the Gaza strip.

    Ironically, as a matter of fact, before I listened to todays interview with Gerald, my Son this very evening asked me about a report on TV tonight regarding the 4 Jews killed yesterday in the Synagogue and the preceding violence in the Islamic holy site last week. He asked me what I thought about it. Here is what I said:

    When you have a conflict as deeply divisive and deeply rooted as the Jewish/Palestinian conflict, you are bound to have considerable guilty parties/guilty hands on both sides (i.e. plenty of blame to go around). But, without a doubt, when you have two ‘guilty parties’ the more powerful of the two will undoubtedly carry out ‘more significant damage’ on the lesser powerful party, simply because they can (i.e. because they have the power to do so). [Look at the European treatment of the American Indians and how that ended up.]

    Another point is that outside parties will more likely side with the more power entity of the two, simply because they are the more powerful of the two. [i.e. How many Foreign Nations in the world really care too much about any of the injustices that the Europeans perpetrated on the American Indians, or really care to hold international relations with the Cherokee Nation?] Just a non-starter there.

    On a related issue, in hindsight (and another irony) I repost a note posted by Allen at the time where he cited a “Pentagon Official” with stating that ‘if Hamas is toppled, ISIS will talk it’s place.” (see below) . Well Hamas has yet to be ‘toppled’ but I dare say that it was prescient of Allen/Pentagon Official in stating that perhaps ISIS could take the place of Hamas as potentially the greater of the two evils. I dare say, based upon the current circumstance that the world finds itself in, that ISIS already has over taken Hamas as the bigger Boogie Man. 🙂

    Reminds me how when a society overuses antibiotics, the result is the development of drug resistant bacteria. No offense intended to anyone of any Ethnic decent. I am merely stating that when you push a people, or an bacteria to the limit, you have a tendency to ‘radicalize’ each. 🙂

    Allen 07/31/2014 •
    I would like to know how would we respond if foreign people came, took our land, killed and humiliated us, put us in refugee camps or in ghettos that are blockated. Would we just accept our faith and be docile?
    You think Hamas is bad. A Pentagon official just said this week that if Hamas is toppled, ISIS will take its place.

    Didn’t a Good Book say somewhere within: ‘God forgive them for they know not what the do.’ or something like that.

    Just food for though for us all.



  37. Paul


    As always your guest Gerald Celente is spot on … the neo-cons WILL Eventually Drive Us into a Nuclear War.

    The question then becomes what must we do if we just happen to survive?

    Say a few months from now Russia can’t take the US meddling in their affairs anymore and “lose it” (as Celente would say) ordering their nuclear strategic bombers now flying over American heads to drop all their bombs and nuke us.

    The US then retaliates … and each country’s politicians (operating from their underground bunkers) immediately impose capital controls on its citizens (only accepting their own currency for payment).

    Now if by some chance a few Americans (not living underground) happen to survive and a few Russians simmilarly survive and felt an urgent need to get their family out of the US and out Russia because the nuked economic infrastructure has literally collapsed … they would need to have some currency of the country they wanted to flee to in order to buy some food and shelter there.

    US survivors seeking to enter Mexico (who’s economic system hopefully survived) would need some peso’s to buy food and shelter … and those survivors fleeing a nuked Russia would similarly need some yuan to run to China, etc. Because the governments backing the US dollar and ruble no longer exist.

    Rather then us ordinary US and Russian citizens going out now and storing fiat cash like peso’s and yuan under our mattresses … wouldn’t it be more prudent to simply store some gold (or silver) coins instead because of “its universal acceptance as money” and will hold its value even if Mexico and China’s governments fail.

    History shows Gold to be a “Timeless Currency” … from its first use as money many thousands of years ago gold has always retained its value when government fiat paper became worthless (and nuclear annihilation will have a tendency to totally destroy the governments backing fiat paper).

    For example, during the US Civil War before the North dominated the South … if the people living in the south simply converted their Confederate fiat paper into Gold and Silver coins … they would have preserved their wealth (simply compare what a gold or silver coin can buy today compared to a Confederate dollar).

    Gold and Silver is a “Unique Kind of Money” that can “Survive the Collapse of Governments”. From the fall of Rome up to the present day gold and silver coins have proven to hold worth and is a necessary means of preserving ones wealth during the “Transition from one Government to the Next”.

    Many people today say holding “Fiat Currency” not “Gold or Silver” is the correct thing to do because in a deflationary environment “Cash is King” … we should not be focusing on deflation in this nuclear age we should be preparing for the total annihilation of governments!!

  38. Jeff L

    Art I said the oil price drop was 90% political. Meaning 10% was supply/demand phenomenon……. Question to Gerald……. If we suddenly get into a “confrontation” with Russia (pick your US enemy, they are countless) and oil jumps $50 over night, does that mean the economies of the world just grew (inflated) ?

  39. Jeff L

    After reading all these great posts I forgot what I was going to post……… This is nothing more than buying a NO Swiss vote. They will not be able to spend carelessly like this if it passes. So they are dangling a carrot to the voters. If they are anything like US voters they’ll take the gift and to hell with the country and their grandkids………Prediction…..No vote wins….. [ ]

    • Marcelo

      “If they are anything like US voters they’ll take the gift and to hell with the country and their grandkids” NO, Swiss voters are anything like US voters and referendum for the CHF 2600 will not pass. Switzerland is a country where last year the people, in another referendum, rejected having more holidays I know it is quite difficult to understand for foreginers how can people could vote against having more holidays…
      In the gold initiative, the yes camp is ahead although yesterday I saw a “fake” poll saying that the no camp is ahead. Strange ..1 month ago the yes had 44 %, yesterday only 38 %…and the SNB is desperate trying to influence voters, even the SNB president is speaking against the YES, in spite he is not allowed to do it. I voted YES and 3 out of 5 friends voted YES as well. Let see if the goverment can rig the vote although in Switzerland is almost quite impossible. You vote with pen/ paper and votes are counted by citizens. Almost impossible to cheat

  40. Silence is Golden

    With all that has happened and all that is yet to unfold one thing is true… CHANGE.
    This reminds me of the famous words of Charles Darwin which may be applicable to our current set of circumstances:
    “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change”.
    Change will come in many forms and it will not be selective in its destruction whether it be….physically, psychologically, emotionally or financially. Prepared or unprepared… it will not show bias. Wealthy or poor it will be indifferent.
    Today, nothing is making sense nor is it logical. A system that is not permitted to function under acceptable standards and principles will collapse…. of that there is no more certainty. Applying learned knowledge to determine outcomes does no longer offer an acceptable solution. We are all in an unknown dimension … a black hole perhaps. The so called unelected rulers have plans but even they can only attempt to direct the course of history not knowing fully, the outcome.
    The “Bankism” term might be new but they will always be known as the Babylonian Money Masters. Their ability to create and control debt under Avarice and Usury is the bane of mankind. They operate in collusion with the Babylonian Cult Religion that has infected the globe and is ruled by the pagan Pope. Aside from these evil creations we have to also deal with the Kings of Ancient Rome and their Royal Houses of Evil who strive for a return to feudalism.
    The World will need to make drastic change… one which includes the elimination and removal of the three headed serpent. Without this…… all and sundry will remain under their curse for millennia to come.

  41. Varughese

    I think this could be what Putin is planning for –

    Trust me he will play it to perfection. All World Leaders will be shocked by the carnage he will unleash.

    Many people believe China will take charge once US Dollar collapses. I doubt so, I think it will be Putin’s Gold Backed Rouble which will take over. It may not become the reserve currency but defacto will have a better position compared to Yuan.

    China’s economy is build very much based on manufacturing and exports – exports of products not raw materials. They have their own economic problems in plenty. Meanwhile Russia lies strong with a low debt percentage. Compared to other countries, we can easily say russia don’t have any debt.

    • Greg Hunter

      Good stuff man. Thank you for posting it here. Paybacks are a B**** as they say in the hood.

    • woody188

      I’ve always had disdain for Alexander Hamilton as a rotten centrist banker. My heroes are Jefferson and ‘Ole Hickory Jackson.

  42. Paul

    Before the nuclear age (from the caveman to 1945) governments of men were more stable … it took “a long time” to destroy government by revolution or civil war … so playing the economic cycles within a particular government was easy … simply alternating between holding gold (during a fiat credit inflations) and holding cash (during a fiat credit deflations).

    However since 1945 (the dawn of the nuclear age) the economic game is not as cut and dried because all governments can now be easily nuked out of existence “overnight” … so the economic game of “holding gold” during inflation and switching to “holding cash” during deflation can’t be played with certainty anymore because the likelyhood of a government existing long enough during the deflationary hard times “to back up their fiat currency” is now low.

    As Gerald Celente repeatedly tells us “during hard times governments bring you to war” … but war “in the nuclear age” can mean instant government annihilation. So we can’t simply hold fiat paper cash under our mattress like we did during hard times in days past … because hard times today can mean instant nuclear destruction of the very government that has issued the fiat paper cash you are holding under your mattress for protection.

    So (if you are a survivor) one must now “hold gold” during both credit expansions (inflation) and credit contractions (deflation) because during “the hard times” (deflation) governments will bring us to war … and war now can mean instant annihilation of government at the simple push of a button.

    Those who say during credit contractions “Cash is King” overlook one important fact … holding the fiat cash of an instantly annihilated government will give you as much protection as holding Confederate dollars did for the Confederates.

  43. mushroom

    The BANKISM people who are running our economy not only have never been elected but they use our stolen wealth to run everything else. Latest example is obama’s appointment of Antonio Weiss!

  44. Colin - 'the farmer from NZ'

    Hi Greg
    Another European country looks like it wants to remain ‘Comfortably Dumb’
    I quote from the article;

    “The Dutch government has refused to reveal details of a secret pact between members of the Joint Investigation Team examining the downed Flight MH17. If the participants, including Ukraine, don’t want information to be released, it will be kept secret.”

    What a shocker this one is.
    It appears that the influence of the AAA is almost unlimited.

  45. Colin - 'the farmer from NZ'

    The mind boggles regarding the dribble and lies put around by today’s presstitute media.
    This article written by Amy Knight is an absolute shocker!

    We should read the 10th comment by Rob Slane.
    Of all the valid points Mr. Slane makes, this comment about the Buk missiles smoke trail, absolutely removes all doubt that MH17 could have been brought down by a BUK missile of the suggested trajectory. The visibility that day was such that there would have been hundreds of sightings of the BUK trail and obviously photographs as well.
    No such evidence has come forward.
    There is a good reason for this!
    The downing of MH17 by a BUK missile is proven to be utter fantasy by this one fact alone!

    I will take the liberty of quoting from Mr. Slane’s excellent post;

    “10. You mention apparent sightings of a BUK missile system being transported from Russia, but offer only rehashed evidence that has appeared on social media and been thoroughly discredited. But let’s give you the benefit of the doubt. Let’s say that a BUK missile system did manage to make it to rebel-held territory and let’s say the expert Russian military, neglecting to check the safety mechanism on the system, did aid the rebels in bringing down the “wrong plane”. The big question here is, “Why were there no eyewitnesses.” You have obviously done a fair amount of research into BUK missiles, and so you will no doubt be aware that they tend to make rather a lot of noise, and also leave rather a long trail of smoke in the air. In this case, given the trajectory involved, the column of smoke would have been approximately 15 kilometres and would have stayed in the air for at least 10 minutes. That’s a pretty long smoke trail, wouldn’t you say? You would think that someone, or even hundreds of people, would have seen a trail that long, and that maybe someone would have caught it on camera. But so far no eye witnesses, and no pictures. Can you explain to your readers why this might be?”

    The new worry is that this false narrative put out by the MSM on MH17 is becoming seriously unravelled. When this happens it is normal for the AAA to stage another murderous and chaotic event in order to divert peoples attention yet again.
    Remember MH370 just months ago. Hardly anyone except for the families that lost innocent loved ones even mention this tragedy any more.

    We had the tale of the two towers. [except there turned out to be 3]
    Now we have the tale of the two Malaysian jets.
    It seems to me that more and more western nations are becoming


    • Larry Krudlow

      Dumb and dumber!

  46. Jim H

    Thanks Greg and Gerald
    Two videos. Enough said.
    While I do not believe any for profit system will ever make the 99% world a better place, these videos are two that best teach us the problem.

  47. Collateral Damage

    My heart bleeds this evening, for my Country.

    8:18 p.m. Thursday, November 2014


  48. Jeff L

    Flusy Sorry I can’t agree with naked capitals assessment…… The “power” of Saudi oil is a storyline told to hid whatever the bankers need to hid. In this case it’s simply the manipulation (down) of world oil prices. The Saudi’s well production has been falling drastically for decades. Like all good lies the government needs a good cover so they use Saudi oil……… Question to all these smart people (Gerald, naked capitalist, ect)………. Please explain to me how prices dropped from $120 to $25 in 08-09. Please show me where the worlds supply/demand was the cause (Gerald). Please show me where the Saudi’s supplied the oil for such a drop (naked capitalist)…………. You can’t and anyone who buys this MSM crap is being duped……. With gold nobody cares and they simply hit stops to start the cascade down. Did Goldcorp or Majestic silver start selling (dumping) their product at a reduced price to destroy the competition ? Sounds stupid when you look at it that way doesn’t it. But oil is a different creature that effects everyone, especially the debt slave sheeple. So we need a good lie. Well only good enough to distract them from “dancing with the stars”…….

  49. Barry

    I love Gerald. But he is stuck in the USA. China can trade with all of Asia man! And with much of Africa, much of South America etc etc. USA and Euro are not the big deal Gerald says. USA is broke and the Euro is a joke. War in Europe coming? And the western puppet Japan, well, into the soup for them?
    China is all over the world. The BRICs are the future , the West is in decline. Gerald is American, too much yankee. The Founding Fathers he loves to extoll. But they lived 230 yrs ago, right?

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